CarGo Likes Colorado
Last November, the Colorado Rockies shipped franchise cornerstone Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s for lefty starter Greg Smith, reliever Huston Street and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.
Smith (sidelined for most of the 2009 season with shoulder problems) was more of a throw-in, a back-of-the-rotation option whose peripherals were uninspiring. Street was certainly a stalwart in the ‘pen this year, with a 2.93 FIP. But the big prize in the deal was Gonzalez. Ultimately, the lefty-hitting Venezuelan would determine whether the deal worked out in Colorado’s favor.
Shortly after the swap, I took a gander at CarGo’s minor league track record and early scuffles in Oakland. The former D-Backs prospect possessed the power-speed combo to be a major component in two blockbuster deals (he was also involved in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal). Yet, he rarely worked the count, and he did benefit from cozy hitting environs in Arizona’s farm system. I came to the following conclusion:
“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”
One year later, Gonzalez appears to have taken steps toward becoming that championship-caliber player. The obvious caveat here is Coors Field. Humidor or not, the park inflates offense like no other venue in the majors. But even accounting for the Rocky Mountain assist, Gonzalez posted +9.8 Batting Runs in 2009, despite not getting a call-up until June and not really getting everyday AB’s until late in the year.
Opening the season at AAA Colorado Springs, Gonzalez punished the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA. Colorado Springs is also a hitter’s paradise, but Gonzalez beat the seams off the ball for a .292 ISO. Perhaps more importantly, he displayed a more reserved approach at the plate. Gonzalez drew a walk in 10.3% of his PA, while punching out 16.7%.
In Colorado, CarGo did a decent job of mending his hack-tastic ways. Gonzalez walked 9.2 percent of the time, increasing his P/PA seen from 3.4 in 2008 to 3.7 in 2009.
The 24 year-old didn’t suddenly morph into some Helton-like Zen master of plate discipline, but he made progress. Gonzalez jumped at 32.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone with the A’s in ‘08, but lowered that mark to 30.6 percent with the Rockies (25.1% MLB average).
His first-pitch strike percentage (the rate at which the batter puts the ball in play on the first pitch or gets behind in the count 0-and-1) fell from 60.8% in 2008 to 58% this past year, right around the big league average. When Carlos took a cut at a pitch within the zone, he connected more often. His Z-Contact% rose from 86.7% with the A’s to 89.7% with the Rockies (87.8% MLB average).
With better strike-zone judgment and the best hitting environment in baseball at his disposal, Gonzalez batted .284/.353/.525 in 317 PA, with a .241 ISO. Happily, CarGo also added 16 steals in 20 attempts. The base thievery wasn’t really expected, given his poor 65% success rate in the minors.
It’s too early to say that Gonzalez is on the path to stardom, but he made strides toward becoming a more complete player in 2009. We knew that he could sting the baseball, but it was imperative that he lay off more junk pitches off the plate. He started to do that this year. With a vastly improved bat and stellar defense (+8 UZR/150), Gonzalez was worth 2.3 Wins Above Replacement in part-time duty. In parting with one organizational building block, the Rockies may have acquired another.
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Solid analysis, I was not sold on him at all but he looks like he could be a solid contributor. I wonder if they favour him or Dexter in CF going forward? I have read most of the scouting reports and they seem to think Fowler could be god-like in CF.
Fowler in center. I’m basing this mostly off second-hand opinion, but the consensus is that Fowler will have more range in center, with the potential to be a very good defensive CFer.
I was confused at first because some of us in Minnesota also call Carlos Gomez “CarGo.”
This CarGo is actually good.
That CarGo is good, but only at defense.
There are some who say that Gonzalez may actually be faster in raw terms than Fowler, though that doesn’t always translate to steals.
For next year I’d play CarGone in right, Fowler, in center, and Seth Smith in left. This team doesn’t really need Brad Hawpe, and he’s a lot more expensive than the others. Get what you can for him. Braves would probably be interested.
It is also, I think, interesting to note CarGo’s ridiculous 1st/2nd half splits. In the first half, he was essentially the equivilant of the other CarGo, Gomez, with a .202/.280/.333 line, while in the second half, he posted a Ryan Braun like .320/.384/.608. I think Gonzalez has the potential to be the next Ryan Braun, and if he can maintain a .060-.080 IsoD and utilize his speed, gap power, and large confines of coors to keep hitting doubles and triples as well as his obvious home run power, I don’t think that a .300/.360/.550 and 30/30 season is out of his reach, especially since Tracy seems to like running him.
Gonzalez also plays plus defense, both in left and right, and plays a solid center field. He’s already and upgrade over Hawpe, even in half the playing time, and as much as I love Brad and his constant .290/.370/.520, he belongs in the AL, or at least in a park that isn’t 390 to the power alleys. Optimally I would like to see some sort of a Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez outfield, and to trade Hawpe to either plug the gaping hole at second base, or to acquire some sort of solid 1b prospect, as our system is lacking in those, and Todd Helton turns 36 next year.
I traded for Gonzalez just before his callup – yeah me! I was most pleased and surprised by the improved plate patience that was documented in the article. I am of the mindset that batting eye/patience does not improve much and can’t effectively be taught. Gonzalez proved me wrong – neato.
Side Note – The ads for the detergent are EXTREMELY ANNOYING. I will for sure NEVER buy that crap simply because the ads are so intrusive.
MM
I’ll second the comment about the detergent ad. In fact, if I see that crap on a store shelf, I’ll hide it behind the Tide or Cheer, just because of this ad.
I posted a comment about that a while back on another article, no one did anything. So annoying! And they said when they first introduced ads that they would keep it tasteful….yeah right!
CarGo in 2010 .275/.350/.600 with 30 HR and 20 SB. The fantasy equivalent of Nelson Cruz with still tons of unrealized upside.
Make that .275/.350/.500