I actually agree with you that OF is deeper than 1B. Like you say, there are plenty of sleeper OF’s who are capable of putting up respectable stats, but once you get past the first 8 first basemen or so, and first 4 or 5 3rd basemen, there is a giant dropoff.

But Clayton: Brian’s argument didn’t hinge on the gaudy stats put up in Lee’s hot streak, it hinged on his consistent numbers over the past few seasons. Constant production, not numbers that were disproportionate to the rest of a season or career.

As to the question of who to draft Lee ahead of, I see 6 people ahead of Lee on Yahoo’s ADP rankings who I would absolutely take Lee ahead of:

Manny Ramirez
Brandon Phillips
Dustin Pedroia
CC Sabathia
Carlos Quentin
Johan Santana

I could go into depth as to why, but I won’t bother unless you strongly disagree. I agree with you that I would rather take an infielder that early, but there is no excuse in my mind for taking any of those players before Lee. The rest of the players between him and Teix are either better outfielders or are good enough to have the shallower positions excuse.

One other thing I notice is that Jimmie Rollins is going after Mark Tex. There’s no way I would go for Tex when Rollins is still on the board. That’s one example where the position argument is really meaningful.

Now, this is just one forecast and I know that everyone can point to 50 other forecasts that have Tex ahead. I concede the point, so please do not do that. All I’m saying is that one very intelligent person who builds position scarcity into his forecasts has Lee ahead.

Besides, my original point was not that Lee deserved to be ahead of Tex but rather I believed the difference between them should not be as large as the ADPs would have you believe.

Since each team has three starting OF and only 1 starting 1B, obviously OF is a deeper position. What I should have said that in regards to the elite players at the respective positions, I don’t think Teixeira should receive any kind of “position scarcity” type bonus over Lee. Perhaps that is what owners are doing, but if so, I believe it to be a mistake.

Sorry for the confusion – I’ll try to do better next time.

Great write-up on one of the more underrated players in fantasy baseball at this point (in my opinion).

I am not convinced that OF is deeper than 1B, especially in leagues that require 5 OF starters.

If Lee and Tex each have a similar number of ABs, I think it’s a toss-up who has better fantasy numbers except for SB, which I think Lee will win.

Lee is a notorious slow starter. And unlike your Milledge example, he should have had more ABs in 2008 except for the freak injury. I think his strong end to 2008 is relevant because it shows that he was producing just as well (if not better) as he always had and that minus the injury he would have had great numbers and people would be drafting him higher.

FWIW I do believe Milledge is being undervalued, although not to the degree that your snark implied.

To answer your question, I would take Lee over Upton and Holliday in the OF, all of the pitchers and probably Morneau, too.

Who cares what Lee did over his last 216 ABs last year? I can find a 216 AB sample from any player that looks ridiculously gaudy. That information is irrelevant. Hey, did you know that Lastings Milledge hit .318 with 7 HR and 11 SB in his last 198 ABs last year? Too bad the season ended, because Milledge probably would’ve hit .318 with 21 HR and 33 SB in 600 AB if the season had started in August instead of April. I think people are undervaluing Lastings Milledge since a 20/30 player with a .300+ average should be going in the second round, at least!

Among the players going ahead of Lee, especially those in the outfield, who do you propose he be drafted ahead of?