Catcher ADP: Early Results
At the request of you, the readers, we are covering the early Average Draft Position (ADP) results by individual position Over the past week, you’ve seen results for Second Basemen and AL Starting Pitchers, so now it’s time to cover the boys behind the plate. Here are some early ADP results for the Catchers with a few thoughts added in.
| Player | ADP | Earliest | Latest | Draft | Overall Trend |
| Carlos Santana | 36.98 | 17 | 63 | 100% | 0.2% |
| Mike Napoli | 46.88 | 22 | 70 | 100% | 12.4% |
| Brian McCann | 50.74 | 31 | 146 | 100% | 9.2% |
| Buster Posey | 59.99 | 37 | 106 | 100% | -3.3% |
| Joe Mauer | 82.30 | 49 | 361 | 100% | 0.6% |
| Matt Wieters | 99.79 | 43 | 137 | 100% | 5.4% |
| Miguel Montero | 104.41 | 61 | 140 | 100% | -0.1% |
| Alex Avila | 110.15 | 58 | 167 | 100% | 1.2% |
| J.P. Arencibia | 180.36 | 102 | 247 | 100% | -3.4% |
| Yadier Molina | 182.06 | 109 | 391 | 100% | -2.3% |
| Wilson Ramos | 208.52 | 109 | ND | 97.3% | 2.0% |
| Geovany Soto | 227.95 | 156 | ND | 87.7% | -1.2% |
| Nick Hundley | 230.07 | 204 | ND | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 233.59 | 198 | ND | 27.7% | -0.2% |
| Russell Martin | 234.97 | 140 | ND | 62.2% | -0.8% |
| Ryan Doumit | 237.02 | 198 | ND | 38.0% | -1.7% |
| Chris Iannetta | 238.03 | 178 | ND | 36.8% | -2.0% |
| Salvador Perez | 238.87 | 168 | ND | 70.6% | -1.0% |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 239.66 | 175 | ND | 54.82 | -2.7% |
| Devin Mesoraco | 239.88 | 167 | ND | 84.7% | -3.1% |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 240.57 | 198 | ND | 41.1% | -1.6% |
| Miguel Olivo | 240.60 | 184 | ND | 58.2% | -4.9% |
| Carlos Ruiz | 240.71 | 215 | ND | 39.3% | -2.7% |
| Ramon Hernandez | 241.62 | 198 | ND | 58.0% | -3.4% |
| Kurt Suzuki | 241.65 | 181 | ND | 72.8% | -4.6% |
| John Buck | 242.45 | 211 | ND | 62.3% | -4.3% |
| Rod Barajas | 280.21 | 271 | ND | 19.6% | -17.6% |
| Chris Snyder | 323.64 | 313 | ND | 16.0% | -15.0% |
| Wilin Rosario | 328.81 | 318 | ND | 0.7% | 6.3% |
| John Jaso | 328.81 | 318 | ND | 7.6% | -13.8% |
| Josh Thole | 331.91 | 321 | ND | 2.7% | -0.3% |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 337.08 | 326 | ND | 4.3% | -4.9% |
| Ryan Hanigan | 356.73 | 345 | ND | 1.8% | -6.4% |
| Taylor Teagarden | 442.55 | 428 | ND | 1.8% | -26.9% |
| Brett Hayes | 448.76 | 434 | ND | 1.1% | |
| Andrew Butera | 449.79 | 435 | ND | 0.9% | |
| Rob Johnson | 463.23 | 448 | ND | 0.4% | |
| Jesus Flores | 464.27 | 449 | ND | 0.7% |
Basics:
The column heading should speak for themselves, but just in case you’re new to this –
ADP — Average Draft Position (the average spot a player is taken which is compiled from 555 mixed 5×5 drafts on Mock Draft Central)
Earliest — the highest pick used on each particular player
Latest — the lowest pick used on a player (ND = not drafted)
Draft — percentage of leagues in which player was drafted
Overall Trend — the percentage increase/decrease of player’s ADP over last 2 weeks
While the actual ADP is the most important number to watch, the Overall Trend is likely the most helpful as you’ll be able to see whether or not a particular player is gaining popularity or losing ground and thus can be had later than expected. Fluctuations between 0 and 10.0% and -10.0% and 0 are very minor and usually reflect movement no greater than a pick or two. Anything fluctuations higher or lower from those parameters are the ones to take notice as they usually indicate round differentials.
Thoughts:
The abundance of negatives in the overall trends indicates that more people are choosing to wait on their catchers. Obviously there are a few exceptions, but overall, once you get past the top five, no one seems to be in any kind of a rush to grab a backstop.
Carlos Santana’s ADP is right about on par with where the top catcher (formerly Joe Mauer) has gone in most drafts. However, that early pick of 17 seems way too high for a player who still has batting average woes and plays a position that poses one of the highest risks for injury. It doesn’t even matter if it’s a 10-team league. Still too high.
It should be interesting to see the final numbers for Mauer and Matt Wieters this season. While Mauer’s ADP seems significantly higher right now, they are trending in opposite directions. Mauer’s ADP fluctuation is minimal right now, but Wieters’ is creeping up slowly but surely. Their earliest/latest numbers seem to be the most telling right now.
If you’re ok with not having a top 5/6 catcher this season, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be difficult to obtain a quality player later on. Once you get past Wieters, the next five are somewhat scattered between the 9th and 17th rounds. To be able to grab Yadier Molina in the 15th round of a standard 12-team league, puts you in a pretty good position. You’ve bulked up everywhere else and still end up with a top 10 catcher.
It looks like Nick Hundley (overall trend: 17.3%) is finally starting to get noticed. Perhaps people are finally noticing his performance over the last two months of 2011.
Obviously a result of more two catcher leagues drafting, but there’s a serious run on backstops near the 230th pick (19th round of a 12-team league).
Interesting to see Devin Mesoraco’s ADP so much higher than that of Ryan Hanigan. There hasn’t been any official word that Meso was going to be the primary and given Dusty Baker’s loyalty to his veterans and the time he’s given to Hanigan in the past, it seems like people are making quite a big assumption. Obviously Meso is the better option of the two, but again, with Dusty, you never know…
Though Mock Draft Central only lists him as a DH, it’s worth noting that Jesus Montero’s current ADP is 171.33 with an earliest pick of 68 and has been drafted in 91.8% of the reporting leagues. His overall trend is slightly up by 3.7% over the past two weeks. It sounds as if his catcher eligibility isn’t too far out.
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As much as Dusty split starts between Hernandez and Hanigan last season, I personally wouldn’t draft ANY Reds catcher — But if I had my choice between the two, I’d go with upside – Mesoraco.
I end up getting Yadier every year and no one ever seems to notice how awesome it works out for me. That being said, I think this might be the year to try to grab Mauer in the 4th or 5th round. Sounds like Gardenhire is going to give him a ton of 1B/DH time this year.
It seems totally possible Wieters is a steal this year, (Yes, people have been saying that for years) but it seems to me Miguel Montero is being undervalued, no?
“Once you get past Wieters, the next five are somewhat scattered between the 9th and 17th rounds.”
This sort of ignores the fact that Montero and Avila are off the boards soon after Wieters, and there is a 70 pick (5 round) break before the next catcher is taken. I’m not sure you’re reading these right…
Thanks Fletcher, but I’m reading it right. I guess the inference is that Montero and Avila might come off the boards shortly after Wieters, but value-wise, I don’t see either of them being that much better than Arencibia, Ramos or even Molina to a certain extent.
I think Avila regresses to a more .270-ish average with fewer HR and Montero needs to show me better health/consistency. On the other side, I see better numbers from a full season of Ramos and if JPA can lift that average, he’ll be more valuable than all three of them.
Personally, I’m shocked that Jesus Montero has an earliest pick of 68 — I’ve done two mock drafts so far, and in both he was the first “catcher” taken (I think 19th and 27th, somewhere around there). Personally I think that’s way too early, but only because of his lineup. He seems like a relative lock to me to hit .310 with 30 homers and as many R and RBI as you can get hitting 3rd for the Mariners for 140 games. I’d probably take him if he were still around in the 7th or 8th round, but I doubt he’ll be there in most leagues then.
“He seems like a relative lock to me to hit .310 with 30 homers and as many R and RBI as you can get hitting 3rd for the Mariners for 140 games.”
Since 1900, this has only been done by a catcher (someone who played 20 games or more) FIFTEEN TIMES. And six of those seasons belong to Mike Piazza.
And yet you believe that a 22 year old rookie with 70 total career ABs is a “relative lock” to do it.
The standard MDC draft has two catchers, so in a typical one catcher league those ADP’s may be a bit high. When 20+ catchers are selected, I’m fine with Carlos Santana at #17 earliest pick
Catcher must be the hardest to extrapolate meaningful data on as it mixes both types of leagues on MDC. If I had to guess, based on experience, the majority of drafts are two-catcher leagues.
Two-catcher leagues may see them go a bit earlier. One-catcher leagues may see them go later. My league they go much later than ADP suggests. I’m just going to target Mauer or Wieters, based on when Posay/McCann get drafted.
Be nice if you could customize the ADP list based on the type of roster requirements that are underlying the data.
Drafting any catcher early terrifies me. Even the very “best” ones have a horrible track record of consistent production. I was the biggest Carlos Santana fan in the world before he was brought up but he’s had issues squaring up big-league pitching (16% career pop-up [pretty high], 16.7% LD [relatively low]). I also don’t like hitters with low BABIPS. Sometimes that low BABIP never goes away, even if a hitter has good fundamentals (The Zobrist Effect). I’ll probably end up waiting for Geovany Soto in the zillionth round and hoping he can do a redux of his 2008 (.371 wOBA) or 2010 (.385 wOBA).
Would you guys trade Cargo and Pedroia for Santana, Tulo and a 6th round pick in a keeper league?
Tulo all day.
I wouldn’t.
That’s a tough one. If you can find a decent replacement at second with one of your early picks, I would be tempted to do it. But I’m also a big Santana fan and not so much a CarGo fan.