Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops here.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

One of the biggest arguments of the offseason in regards to this position will be whether or not Joe Mauer belongs in a tier of his own. Certainly, if he repeats his work from last year, he’ll be above and beyond the best catcher in the league. The problem with projecting his power next year is that he didn’t crack 30% fly balls last year, he just more than doubled his career HR/FB rate (and tripled 2008’s number). That uncertainty regarding his power ‘drags’ him down into a tier with the recovered Victor Martinez and the steady power producer Brian McCann.

Next comes the tier that mixes strong rookies with some doubt with an ageless wonder in Jorge Posada. Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero have the upside to blaze past Posada (at least in terms of batting average). Just look at the second halves that Wieters (.301/.351/.415) and Montero (.316/.366/.534) put up last year for a little taste of the possibility. Though Mike Napoli made a small stride in his strike out rate (27.1% in 2009, 29.7% career), it’s still high, and he’s still the most likely to put up the worst batting average of the group.

The third tier is a mix of riskier young catchers with upside remaining and less-valuable older catchers on their way down. Actually, to be fair, A.J. Pierzynski doesn’t seem to be declining currently with his best batting average in seven years, but he is utterly devoid of upside and provides minimal returns in the power categories. For example, despite a major step back in his slugging percentage (all the way down to .329), Russell Martin could easily hit more home runs than AJ next year (and that doesn’t even mention his stolen bases). Geovany Soto seems to have had some terrible luck (.251 BABIP, .310 career) and is a decent bet for a bounce back. Buster Posey has to be seen as more of a risk than the young veterans ahead of him, despite his strong minor league numbers, just because of his youth (22) and his struggles last year. Bengie Molina had his worst wOBA (.308) in six years and doesn’t have a starting job in hand currently.

The final tier includes a trio of long shots at this point. Though there is reason to remain excited about Chris Iannetta, there are negatives for every positive. You might want to point to his bad BABIP (.253), but that may have been because of his bad line drive rate (16%). You like a power hitter to hit fly balls, but maybe not as many as the young Rockie (52%). If he straightens out those hits a little, he could even leap a tier next year, and he’s the best long shot in the bottom tier. Ryan Doumit just can’t stay healthy, and Kurt Suzuki hadn’t even shown this power before last year (.421 slugging in 2009, .398 career) and without it, you’re relying on a catcher for (already modest) speed.

Many of us will own someone on the bottom of this list sometime next year, but will we really want to draft them at the beginning of the year?

Kenji Johjima won’t be back with the Seattle Mariners next year. The 33 year-old backstop, signed out of Japan prior to the 2006 season, has decided to return home. He leaves two years and $16M on the table, as part of an ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract extension covering the 2009-2011 seasons (is “ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract” redundant?)

Johjima posted solid 2006 and 2007 campaigns, with wOBA’s of .338 and .327, respectively. However, his offense fell off a cliff in 2008 (.272 wOBA), and he turned in another mediocre season in 2009 (.305 wOBA). Johjima’s walk and strikeout rates remained stable, but his BABIP tumbled from the low-.290’s over the 2006-2007 seasons to the .240 range from 2008-2009.

That’s extremely low, but the former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk had a few factors working against him: he hit a lot of groundballs (never a good idea for a slow-footed backstop) and he popped the ball up often (infield flies are near automatic outs).

With Johjima now out of the picture, Seattle’s internal options behind the dish are Rob Johnson and Adam Moore.

Johnson, 26, split time with Johjima this past season. The University of Houston alumnus is known more for his defensive virtues than his lumber. Johnson has authored a .270/.323/.389 line during his minor league career , including a .270/.323/.381 triple-slash in three seasons at AAA Tacoma.

The righty batter was an absolute hacker his first time around the Pacific Coast League in 2006, walking in 3.7% of his PA, punching out 22 percent and posting a lousy .258 wOBA. In 2007, he bumped that wOBA up to .311, drawing a free pass 8.5% and whiffing 14.7%. Johnson posted similar walk and strikeout numbers in 2008, but his wOBA climbed to .351 (he hit for slightly more power, but a 40 point increase in BABIP boosted that figure).

In his first extended big league trial, Johnson batted just .213/.289/.326 in 290 PA, with a .274 wOBA. On the positive side, he walked in 9.2% of his PA. But as you might expect from that line, there were plenty of problems with Johnson’s lumber.

He was jammed at a sky-high rate, with an infield/fly ball rate of 20 percent (7th-highest among batters with 250+ PA). Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs, as Johnson posted an ugly -1.7 run/100 pitches value against heaters (5th-worst among batters with 250+ PA). He posted a negative run value against curves, sliders, cutters and changeups, as well.

Moore, 25, is the more interesting player from a fantasy perspective. A 6th-rounder in the 2006 draft taken out of Texas-Arlington, Moore has shown considerably more offensive promise.

In 2007, he batted a robust .307/.371/.543 at High-A High Desert. That ball park is a launching pad, but his park-adjusted line of .296/.363/.498 was still pretty tasty.

Bumped up to AA West-Tennessee in 2008, Moore mashed to the tune of .319/.396/.506. He walked 8.5% of the time, with a modest 17.9% K rate and a .186 ISO.

The 6-3, 220 pound right-handed hitter split the 2009 season between AA and AAA Tacoma. Back at West-Tennessee, he showed excellent plate discipline (14.4 BB%), batting .263/.371/.411 in 116 PA.

With the Rainers, Moore posted a .294/.346/.429 triple-slash in 368 PA. He walked 7.1 percent and punched out 15 percent, with a .135 ISO. Moore was called up to Seattle in September, drawing a few starts down the stretch.

As a guy in his mid-twenties, Moore isn’t a monster prospect. But, he has enough offensive ability to be a league-average (.330-.335 wOBA) hitter. That’s pretty valuable, when one considers that the average MLB catcher hit just .254/.320/.395 in 2009. That equates to a wOBA around .324.

The Mariners could opt to bring in a veteran via free agency, but the pickings appear slim. Assuming Seattle sticks with Johnson and Moore, fantasy owners should be rooting for Moore to grab the starting gig.

In two-plus years with the Giants, Barry Zito has been a major disappointment. Forget his massive salary, Zito has a 29-41 record with a 4.72 ERA. The primary catcher for Zito in San Francisco throughout his tenure in the National League is Bengie Molina. It has been suggested more than once that Molina is part of the problem with Zito’s performance, yet he has been behind the plate for 15 of Zito’s 24 starts this season, including eight of his last 10 outings.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy is a former catcher and he should be uniquely qualified to assess how important the individual pitcher-catcher relationship is, one that takes on even greater importance for the club this season as it battles for a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. That Bochy continues to write Molina’s name in at catcher with Zito on the hill tells us his opinion of the matter.

There is no easy way to determine if Molina is hurting Zito because there are so many factors to consider. One of the hardest things to combat is the sample-size problem, especially with the Giants’ preference to have Molina behind the plate as often as possible.

The biggest sample we have is the games pitched by Zito throughout his major league career. There are six catchers who have caught him at least 15 times. Here are the rate stats for those who have caught Zito the most in the majors:

Among the catchers who have caught Zito the most, Molina does not fare very well in any of our categories. But this could easily be because Molina is catching Zito when he is no longer an elite, or even above-average pitcher. To get a better idea we are going to have to compare Molina to the other catchers on the Giants.

So far in his career for San Francisco, Zito has pitched 90 games. Molina has been behind the plate in 65 of those games, or 72 percent. Here is how Zito has fared with Molina behind the plate compared to all of the other catchers Bochy and the Giants have used since 2007:

Molina: 20 W, 33 L, .261/.347/.421 1.45 SO/BB, 32.41 AB/HR
Others: 9 W, 8 L, .242/.315/.366 1.66 SO/BB, 45.75 AB/HR

Here are the breakdowns for the other Giants catchers besides Molina when Zito is on the mound:

In extremely small samples, Zito has appeared much more like the pitcher he was in Oakland with Sandoval or Rodriguez behind the plate. Unfortunately for the Giants, Rodriguez is now in the Baltimore organization.

Bochy and the Giants have apparently made the decision that Sandoval will not be catching anymore. It would be thinking way outside the box for the Giants to take their starting third baseman and make him Zito’s permanent personal catcher but at this point, that may be their best option to get the most value out of Zito going forward.

It is hard to blame the Giants for wanting no longer to expose Sandoval to the rigors of catching. But it is time to pull the plug on Molina being the primary catcher for Zito because the results are simply no good. Zito has a .377 winning percentage in 53 decisions with Molina behind the plate. This is one time where we have enough data to draw a firm conclusion.

Throughout it all, Zito has taken the high road. He has expressed a willingness to continue with Molina as his primary catcher, despite the less than stellar results when the two work together.

But this is a case when the manager has to step in for the good of the team. With the playoffs in the balance and Zito on the mound, Bochy simply cannot put Molina behind the plate if he wants to give his team its best shot to win. Molina should be working out at first base so that Bochy has the option to keep his bat in the lineup when Zito pitches.

You have to give Texas manager Ron Washington some credit for helping to turn around the Rangers franchise and make it a legitimate playoff contender in 2009. You can also, though, give the third-year Texas manager credit for wearing down his regular position players, and especially his starting catcher. To make matters worse, Washington is also ruining a pretty good talent in the process.

To this point, Texas has played 74 games. Young catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 24, has appeared in 58 games (78%). Back-up catcher and promising rookie (among the club’s 10 best prospects entering the season) Taylor Teagarden, 25, has appeared in just 19 games (26%).

I could maybe understand this if Saltalamacchia was head-and-shoulders above Teagarden both offensively and/or defensively. However, the starting catcher does not have the strongest reputation as a defensive catcher. In fact, there was talk at one point that he would have to move to first base. Teagarden, on the other hand, was considered the best defense catcher in all of college baseball when he was drafted in the third round out of the University of Texas in 2005. He continued to showcase good defensive skills in the minors, as well as the ability to throw out a ton of base runners on a consistent basis.

Offensively, Saltalamacchia is hitting .250/.297/.377 in 204 at-bats on the season. He also has a strikeout rate of 37.3%, which is borderline horrendous. Toss in a walk rate of 6.4%, as well as the habit of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone almost 35% of the time, and you have a pretty poor approach at the plate. Teagarden is hitting .230/.299/.311 in just 61 at-bats so he hasn’t even had a chance to get in a groove. The rookie has played in back-to-back games just twice this season and the last time came on April 30/May 1. His last three appearances were on June 12th, 18th, and 24th – each six days apart. Is that any way to treat a promising rookie?

This is not the first time that Washington has ridden his starting catcher too heavily. In 2007, he played Gerald Laird in 120 games, while relying on back-up catchers Adam Melhuse and Chris Stewart for just 41 games combined. I also watched a number of Rangers spring training games that season and was amazed at how many innings the manager had Laird play in the Arizona heat.

Texas is not an easy place to play because of the extremely warm weather in the summer, and the catcher’s position is the most demanding, for obvious reasons. Sure, Pudge Rodriguez caught an inhuman number of game behind the plate in his Rangers career, but he was an exception to the rule. Under the heavy workload, Saltalamacchia’s numbers have dipped each month, from .276/.300/.448 in April to .239/.271/.299 in June. His OPS has gone from .748 to .707 to .570.

There is absolutely no reason why Washington should be relying so heavily on Saltalamacchia, while an equally-promising young catcher (more so on defense) wastes away on the bench. There are plenty of veteran minor league catchers who could offer league-average offense for a back-up catcher, while providing excellent mentoring for Saltalamacchia and leadership to the young pitchers on the staff. Three names to consider would be Sal Fasano in Colorado Springs, Mark Johnson in Iowa and Dusty Brown in Pawtucket.

Teagarden has above-average raw power and excellent defensive skills, which could make him an extremely valuable starting catcher for a long time, even if he does hit just .230-.250. Washington’s use of him, though, is hurting his present and future value. The young catcher would be much better off playing everyday in the minors. The club could also use him as trade bait to bring in some MLB-ready pitching. The problem is, though, that the club is also ruining his trade value. If Teagarden ever escapes from Washington’s treatment, he has the potential to become a solid fantasy league option at the catching position.

Someone needs to step up and talk some sense into the manager.

Consider that Rod Barajas and his .711 OPS is probably the 12th best catcher in most formats currently, and you’ll realize how thin the catching position really is. The buy-low catcher is an important phenomenon, especially in two-catcher leagues. Let’s take a look at two guys that could yet net you a top-12 finish at the position, despite their currently ugly stats.

Geovany Soto – Almost every secondary statistic screams that Soto is a great buy-low. Of course, any player with “Sweet” Lou Piniella as their manager has to come with an asterisk next to their name. They could be subject to the vagaries of their impulsive manager, and just as likely to end up in AAA as starting regularly. That’s how Soto ended up on the bench for a two game mental breather this past week. Maybe Piniella will take credit for the impending hot streak.

Yes, his four for eight so far this week (with a home run) should be the beginning of something good for Soto. Let me count the ways. The first is that his BABIP is a meager .261 against a .328 career number. This is in the face of a 20.9% line drive percentage, which is both decent and in line with his career percentage (20.6%). His fly ball rate, ground ball rate, walk rate and strikeout rate are all either the same as his career rates – or better. He’s walking more than ever and striking out less than ever. Pitchers are sending him more or less the same mix of pitches, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone.

When all of a player’s career numbers are the same or better, and only one number isn’t right, it’s a great bet that the player will recover to his career norms. A quick check at the speed of balls leaving his bat (thanks to Harry Pavlidis and his look at the speed of balls leaving the bat) shows us that Soto has about as many 90+ mph balls leaving his bat as Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley. Yes, he’s a good buy-low.

Chris Iannetta – This situation is not as clear. Early on in the season, I took a look at Iannetta’s legendary batted ball statistics. Back then he had a 5.1% line drive rate, easily the worst in the league. Along with his 69.2% fly ball percentage, his stats painted the picture of a young catcher swinging for the fences.

As with all outliers in small sample sizes, these numbers quickly came back into the fold. Iannetta is sporting a relatively robust 13.8% line drive percentage now, and a more modest 55% of his balls are traveling through the air. He’s still swinging for the fences – and now that it’s not so extreme, this is probably a good thing.

All the other numbers are mostly trending positive. He has the highest walk rate of his career, and his strikeout percentage is now at a three-year low. He’s swinging at fewer balls outside the zone than his career rate, and his contact rate in the zone and overall are above his career numbers.

Considering that his career line drive percentage is 19.5% in 865 career plate appearances, the ZiPS RoS prediction of a .261/.369/.479 finish to the season (with 10 more home runs) seems very achievable. If he can combine a higher line drive rate with the career-high fly ball rate, he could, of course, better the projection considerably, making him another good buy-low candidate.

Los Angeles Dodgers backstop Russell Martin is in the midst of one serious power outage. The last time Martin went deep? Try September 26th, 2008 against the San Francisco Giants. While the 26 year-old Canadian has never been known for possessing immense strength in the batter’s box, he did reach the double-digits in dingers in each of his first three seasons in the majors.

Making his big league debut back in 2006, Martin slugged .436, with a .154 Isolated Power and 10 home runs in 468 plate appearances. The following year, he popped 19 homers in 620 plate appearances. Martin slugged .469, and his .176 ISO placed 4th among qualifying catchers.

In 2008, Martin took a step back in the power department, with a .116 ISO, a .396 slugging percentage and 13 jacks in 650 plate appearances. While that output seemed disappointing given his work the previous season, it looks downright Josh Gibson-like compared to his tepid line in 2009.

With a microscopic .050 ISO, Martin bests only San Francisco’s Emmanuel Burriss among qualified hitters. He’s shown less punch than Emilio Bonifacio (.053 ISO), Jason Kendall (.053) and Luis Castillo (.054), for crying out loud. Martin’s eye remains sharp (13.9 BB%), but the utter lack of extra-base hits has sapped his offensive value. After posting a .368 wOBA in 2007, Martin has seen that figure dip to .351 in 2008 and just .321 this season.

So, what in the name of Vin Scully is going on here? Since that high-water mark back in ‘07, Martin has increasingly become more of a groundball-oriented batter:

2007: 48.4 GB%, 1.42 GB/FB ratio
2008: 51.1 GB%, 1.73 GB/FB
2009: 52.8 GB%, 2.03 GB/FB

When Martin broke into the big leagues, he was an exceptionally athletic catcher. In many respects, the converted third baseman resembled an early-career version of Jason Kendall: he had on-base skills, some degree of lightning in his bat, and was surprisingly fleet of foot. Martin posted a Speed Score of 5.3 as a rookie in 2006, and a 5.2 mark in 2007 (the major league average hovers around 5.1 to 5.2). In 2008, that mark fell to 4.0, and sits at just 3.6 in 2009.

So, Martin is chopping the ball into the dirt with greater frequency, while not showing the same set of wheels that he possessed a few seasons back. Martin’s speed did not manifest itself on groundballs hit during the 2006 campaign (.199 batting average on grounders, compared to the .234 N.L. average), but he beat out quite a few worm-killers in 2007 (.275 AVG on groundballs; .245 NL average) and 2008 (.281 for Russell, .231 NL average). This season, Martin has a .240 average on grounders, while hitting them at the highest rate of his career (.236 NL average).

Donning the tools of ignorance, Martin’s body takes a beating each and every night he squats behind home plate. Despite his relative youth, LA’s catcher is closing in on 4,000 career innings at the position, with 459 games under his belt.

That’s quite the workload. According to Baseball-Reference, Martin is one of only four catchers 26 years old or younger to appear in 400+ games during the first three seasons of his career (Kendall is also on the list). Kendall, you’ll recall, saw his power peak in his mid-20’s (with slugging percentages of .473, .511 and .470 from ages 24-26 during the 1999-2001 seasons). Since then, he has topped the .400 mark just once. His Speed Scores followed a similar arc to Martin’s: downright blazing in ‘99 (7.3 Speed Score), Kendall was down to the four range by 2001, and dipped into the three’s by the time 2003 rolled around. His groundball rates increased as well.

None of this is to say Martin is doomed; Kendall turned in a couple of valuable seasons in 2003 and 2004 with a similarly keen batting eye. Also, his loss of speed could have been influenced by a nasty ankle injury suffered in ‘99 on top of the heavy workload as a youngster. But the two do share some interesting similarities, in terms of being abnormally agile for the position, enduring a heavy workload at a young age, and subsequently losing that extra gear on the wheels. Martin is just entering what are typically the peak years of a player’s career, but might we have seen his best already?

To answer the headline’s question, a Wieters is numerus ûnus catcherus prospectus… or in a language that is understandable by the rest of humankind: the number one catching prospect (if not the No. 1 prospect generally speaking) in all of Major League Baseball.

In case you haven’t heard, the Baltimore Orioles organization has promoted catcher Matt Wieters to the Majors and he is expected to make his long-awaited Major League debut tonight against the Detroit Tigers. The switch-hitting catcher’s promotion has been the most anticipated call-up of the season (with apologies to David Price, who actually debuted last year).

Selected fifth overall in the 2007 amateur draft out of Georgia Tech University, the talented backstop was in the mix to go No. 1 overall (Price was nabbed there by Tampa Bay instead) but his price tag and advisor (Mr. Scott Boras, come on down…) scared away the first four clubs in the draft. Probably no other club (and fan base) is more upset over the decision to pass on The Wieters than the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, which chose fourth and took college left-handed reliever Daniel Moskos out of Clemson University.

The Pirates converted Moskos into a starting pitcher, watched him post a 5.95 ERA and then threatened to send him back to the ‘pen. In 2009, as Wieters prepares to don his catching gear for his MLB debut, Moskos is struggling in double-A with a 4.53 ERA in nine games. He’s allowed 51 hits in 45.2 innings of work and he’s struck out just 17 batters… which is a dismally-bad 3.35 K/9. There had best be a blackout in the Pittsburgh area tonight for the Orioles’ broadcast on MLB.com. It could get ugly… and very, very depressing.

Anyway, back to happier thoughts. For Orioles fans, Wieters represents another cog in what should be a very good Orioles team over the next decade. Along with the new catcher, the club also has some impressive outfielders including Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold (and some guy named Felix Pie, if he ever realizes his potential). Second baseman Brian Roberts is a great veteran leader, and he’s still only 31 years old.

Within the next year, the club’s brutal pitching staff should receive help from a trio of talented starters: RHP Chris Tillman, LHP Brian Matusz, and RHP Jake Arrieta. RHP David Hernandez just had his solid MLB debut last night, and appears to have the potential to be a good No. 4 starter. And RHP Brandon Erbe should not be forgotten about, either.

Much like Wieters, don’t expect miracles with the club overnight. He is not going to instantly transform the club into a winner – and he’s probably not going to pull an Albert Pujols and become the best hitter in baseball within the first week of his career. Wieters, though, does have an outside shot at winning the American League Rookie of the Year award, if he can put up half decent numbers. The current race leader is probably Detroit’s Rick Porcello (whom, sadly, Wieters will miss facing in his debut series). Beyond that, there is not much to get excited about this year in terms of rookie performances (so far).

Speaking of rookies, Wieters (who turned 23 last week) should have better long-term potential then, say, last year’s National League Rookie of the Year (and catcher) Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs, who’s looked brutal this season (and pretty much every other year of the 26-year-old’s nine-year career, save for 2007 and 2008). Seriously, what’s up with Soto?

Wieters’ numbers have been down at triple-A in 2009, in part due to a slow start (.260 in April) and in part due to a minor injury that kept him out of the lineup for a few games. Overall, though, his numbers on the year are still solid at .305/.387/.504 in 39 games, which gives you a pretty good idea of just how awesome people expect him to be… because those numbers would be a pretty nice triple-slash line for a lot of people during their career year.

The best part about Wieters is, while he has the best offensive potential for any catcher this side of Mike Piazza, he’s not all offense. The Orioles prospect is also a very good (definitely not just average) defensive catcher. He threw out about 40 percent of base stealers last year, calls a great game and receives the ball very well.

The hype on Wieters is justified. Let’s enjoy the show.

When the Boston Red Sox re-signed backstop Jason Varitek to a one-year, $5 million deal with a mutual 2010 option this past winter, questions were raised as to how much the move was motivated by emotion as opposed to empiricism. After all, ‘Tek (a Sox player since being acquired along with Derek Lowe in a July 1997 deadline deal for Heathcliff Slocumb) was entering his age-37 season, and was coming off a bleak 2008 campaign in which he posted a .299 wOBA (.220/.313/.359).

Granted, those who don the tools of ignorance generally don’t light up the scoreboard (the average catcher posted a .255/.324/.389 line in 2008), but Varitek accumulated just 1.2 Wins Above Replacement in ‘08. Baseball Prospectus scribe Christina Kahrl called bringing the veteran switch-hitter back to Boston “spending money for its own sake because you didn’t spend it on things that actually help you.”

Flash forward to May 28th, as the Red Sox take on the Twins. A catcher dominates the game (well, before getting tossed, anyway). He clubs two homers, pushing his team to victory in a 3-1 affair. The backstop is shockingly in the double-digits in dingers already.

No, I’m not talking about Joe Mauer. With two solo shots yesterday afternoon, Boston’s purportedly cooked catcher now has 10 home runs on the season. Through 150 plate appearances, Varitek owns a .248/.320/.541 line, good for a .360 wOBA that ranks third among all qualified catchers. Only part-time first baseman Victor Martinez and part-time DH Mike Napoli best Varitek, so you could say that he’s the leader in the clubhouse among those who are consistently behind the dish (if you drop the PA threshold to 100 to include those bitten by the injury bug, he ranks 8th, which is still pretty impressive).

Nothing has drastically shifted in his batted ball profile or plate discipline stats, but Varitek is driving the ball as well as he ever has during the first two months of the season. His .293 ISO is leaps and bounds above any of his full-season totals; the last time he eclipsed .200 was 2005. To boot, he’s whiffing less so far, too: after K’ing a career-high 28.8% in 2008, Varitek has pared that number down to 22.6%. It’s hard to say that he’s getting lucky on balls put in play either: while his line drive percentage is low (14.3%), so is his BABIP (.247). He’s just banging plenty of extra-base hits.

Of course, it would be insane to expect this sort of performance to continue for the length of the season. However, Varitek is certainly looking like a worthy starter in deep leagues. ZiPS projects Varitek to post a .235/.326/.412 line the rest of the way. That’s not flashy, but one could do worse than giving Varitek a look. Let’s not write his baseball eulogy just yet.

Baltimore’s Matt Wieters, 23, is the best backstop prospect in all of professional baseball. He hit more than .350 last year with 27 home runs, 91 RBI and 82 walks, while splitting time between high-A and double-A.

But Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia was pretty good too. Playing at the same levels in 2008, the 23-year-old catcher hit .298 with 27 home runs and 105 RBI. His downfall, though, was his walk rate, which saw him take a free pass only 18 times in 510 at-bats.

Both catchers began 2009 in triple-A and both players had slow starts to the season, although Wieters was also hampered by a minor injury. Arencibia’s struggles may have been related to his approach at the plate and the better (smarter?) pitching he’s now facing. If you know a guy is going to swing at everything and won’t take a walk, why give him something to hit?

In 133 at-bats this season, Arencibia is hitting .314 when he’s ahead in the count. When he’s behind, though, he has a .179 average with zero walks. In April, Toronto’s top hitting prospect (now that Travis Snider is in Toronto) batted .224/.257/.358 with no home runs and no walks in 67 at-bats.

Fast-forward to May 19, though, and Arencibia is hitting .288/.356/.697 for the month (66 at-bats). Overall, his numbers have improved to a respectable .256/.308/.526 in 133 at-bats. He’s also slammed seven home runs this month. In his last 10 games, Arencibia is hitting .385 and has five of those home runs in just 39 at-bats.

Can we see any reasons why the numbers have improved? Well, it could be the warmer weather (although the club plays its home games in Las Vegas). It could be that his luck is improving and the BABIP (.257) is starting to creep up to where it should be. But it could also be the seven walks that the catcher has taken in May (16 games). The walks don’t directly equal success, obviously. But it means Arencibia is being more patient, seeing more pitches – and quite possibly hitting better pitches.

Only 16 picks separated Wieters, a Georgia Tech graduate, and Arencibia, from the University of Tennessee, in the first round of the 2007 draft. Wieters, selected fifth overall, will no doubt reach the Majors first – but Arencibia should not be far behind, especially if he continues to show a willingness to be more patience and selective at the plate.

On the Molina Continuum of Offensive Skill, Cardinals backstop Yadier Molina falls in between punchless Jose and powerful Bengie. The youngest Molina’s production at the plate was decidedly Jose-like during his first three seasons in the big leagues. After posting a lackluster .294 wOBA during a cup of coffee with the Cards in 2004, Yadier actually went south in a full-time role the next two seasons, with wOBA’s of .282 in 2005 and .261 in 2006. Grimly, Jose bested Yadier in each of those years.

Yadier showed some signs of life at the plate in 2007. We’re speaking in relative terms here, but his high-contact antics finally produced a passable batting average. Though he whiffed less than 10 percent of the time in ‘05 and ‘06, Yadier batted just .252 and .216, respectively, as a result of very low BABIP figures (.256 in ‘05 and .227 in ‘06). With a more commensurate .299 BABIP in ‘07, the junior Molina posted a .275/.340/.368 line, with a wOBA of .311. Yadier then performed at a similar clip in 2008, albeit with a batting average spike. He hit .304/.349/.392, with a .323 wOBA.

Perhaps Yadier had a little talk with Bengie during the off-season, because the 26 year-old is showing some pop for the first time in his career. Yadier’s highest Isolated Power figure prior to 2009 was just .106, a mark he reached in both 2005 and 2006. He had a .093 ISO in ‘07 and a .088 mark in ‘08. This year, though? Yadier is up to .161, with a .484 slugging percentage that’s 122 points above his career average. With a .382 wOBA, Yadier ranks fourth among all catchers (ironically, Bengie is fifth at .378).

While some of Bengie’s thump might have rubbed off on Yadier, St. Louis’ backstop hasn’t shared his brother’s penchant for swinging at anything within a ten mile radius of home plate. Yadier is drawing walks at a career-high 10.6% rate, above his 7.1% career average. The improved discipline is exhibited by a pared-down Outside-Swing Percentage. After chasing 31.4% of pitches thrown off the dish in 2008, Yadier has offered at just 20.1% of those pitches this season (24.4% MLB average).

Yadier’s offensive game will likely never include Bengie’s brute-force strength, but he surely won’t be confused with Jose ever again. The youngest Molina has turned himself into a quality hitter. He makes a ton of contact (87.5% career contact rate that’s 8% above the league average, as well as a 9.5 K%), he’s no longer a banjo-hitter, and he’ll work some free passes. If you’re in need of a catcher, you could do a lot worse than Yadier.