In a scenario that seemed ridiculous at the start of the year, Billy Wagner may be one of the most highly sought after relievers this offseason. Wagner missed the majority of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Wagner rejoined the Mets on August 20th, and pitched two innings before being shipped off to Boston.

Even though he pitched only 15.2 innings this year, he proved to suitors that he was healthy by averaging 94mph+ on his fastball. While he only pitched on back-to-back days once, that issue should be resolved with an offseason of continued rehab and rest.

When Wagner did get the chance to pitch, he was back to his old (young?) self. A 14.94 K/9 helped contribute to a 1.72 ERA (2.33 FIP). A 4.60 BB/9 is disappointing, but with a 1.02 WHIP, it’s excusable.

If anyone owned Wagner for their fantasy playoffs, the only real value he provided was strikeouts, as he did not accumulate any saves while in Boston. However, because Wagner is a free agent, he has a chance to give owners a decent amount of saves next year, depending on which team he chooses.

He will not be back in Boston unless they trade Jonathan Papelbon and guarantee Wagner the closer’s role. So, where else could he end up? Speculation is that he would like to remain close to his home in Virginia, with the Nationals and Orioles as the two closest teams. The Orioles aren’t likely to spend a bundle of money on a closer, and the Nationals may be happy with Mike MacDougal. Plus, I would guess Wagner would like to compete for a title instead of toiling away on a sub-.500 team.

Could a return to the Phillies make sense? Brad Lidge has been shaky this year, and Philadelphia could opt to bring in an outside player to help shore up the back end of the bullpen. Because they owe Lidge $11.5MM next year, and Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero a combined $8.5MM, they aren’t likely to invest much more cash in the ‘pen. Don’t count them out, but don’t expect a huge push from them if Wagner asks for the big bucks. If he’s willing to move away from the East Coast, the Giants and Cardinals could be players, along with the Angels and Tigers.

If Wagner can find himself a closer’s job for a contender next year, he will be in the top half of fantasy closers, if not the top 10. His ability to strike batters out and experience in the ninth inning should allow you to draft him with confidence, but make sure to have a backup option ready in case his elbow explodes again.

If he’s not a closer, he is still draftable in deeper and AL/NL only leagues, as he will give you good strikeouts for the amount of your allotted innings he uses.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

The Panamanian with the deadly cutter will be 40 this November, yet it’s actually shocking any time that Rivera allows a run. He gave up two in a blown save vs. Seattle on the 18th. Those are the only tallies against Mo since August 11th. Rivera has 9.96 K/9, with 1.73 BB/9 and a 2.54 XFIP. His percentage of contact within the zone is higher than usual (89.8% in ‘09, 85.9% career), but Mo remains as effective as ever.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria has worked four times since the last Closer Report, collecting three saves and striking out five in four scoreless innings. Joakim has yet to allow a run this September, while racking up an insane 19 K’s in 10.2 IP. The Mexicutioner has 12.06 K/9 in 2009, with a 31.1 O-Swing% (25% MLB avg). It’s no wonder why the 25 year-old is so difficult to touch up: he can unleash a 92 MPH heater (+0.61 runs/100), 80 MPH slider (+0.62), 70 MPH curveball (+4.95) or an 85 MPH changeup (+0.42). How many relievers have four plus pitches?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

The major league leader in Win Probability Added (+4.79), Papelbon has punched out 11, issued two walks and surrendered 2 runs in 9.1 September innings. Boston’s 4th-round pick in the 2003 draft has been much sharper in the second half of the season, with a 5.5 K/BB ratio since the All-Star break (2.28 K/BB prior).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has seen extensive action as the Twins attempt to catch the Tigers in the A.L. Central standings. Joe has pitched 7 times over the past 10 days, collecting six saves. He has whiffed 8 in 6.2 frames, but has also issued 4 free passes. Nathan struck out 9.67 hitters per nine innings in 2007 and 9.84 in 2008, but his K rate has climbed back up to 11.86 this year. His contact rate (68.2%) is his lowest since 2005.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has pitched 79.1 innings in relief this season, the most by any closer in the majors. But if the 25 year-old with the nasty fastball, cutter and curve is tired, he sure isn’t showing it. Bailey chucked four scoreless innings since our last Closer Report, with 6 K’s, zero walks and one hit. With 9.87 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, the 6-3 righty has a 3.37 XFIP. Opposing batters have made contact with 75.6% of Bailey’s pitches within the strike zone, the lowest rate among all relievers.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Can you believe that Aardsma hasn’t walked anyone in over a month? A highly-touted prospect taken 22nd overall by the Giants in 2003, Aardsma drifted through many organizations (San Fran, both sides of Chicago, Boston) before breaking out in Seattle. Control problems plagued him throughout. Yet, the 27 year-old has now gone 11 consecutive frames without allowing a free pass. His walk rate is down to 4.32 for the season. Punching out 10.26 batters per nine innings and showing adequate control, Aardsma has a 4.16 XFIP in 2009.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has collected just one save this September, with the Rays fading down the stretch. His control has been MIA, with seven walks in five IP (this after 9 BB in 12 August frames). J.P. hasn’t been easy to hit (10.67 K/9, and a 68.1% contact rate well below the 81% MLB avg). But he’s struggling to locate, with a 45.8 Zone% (49% MLB avg, 50.1% Zone% for Howell in 2008).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Putting the finishing touches on a fine (if injury-riddled) 2009 season, Francisco has picked up two saves in five scoreless frames since the last Closer Report (6 K, 2 BB). In 46.2 IP, Frank has a 4.0 K/BB ratio, with a 3.78 XFIP. He’s pounding the zone (55 Zone%, 49% MLB avg). But when he does bury a pitch in the dirt, hitters are chasing more often (27.1 O-Swing%, 22.8% career avg).

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel, White Sox (Bobby Jenks out for the season with a strained calf muscle)

A calf injury closes the book on Jenks’ 2009 season. Bobby’s ERA soared from 2.63 in 2008 to 3.71 in 2009, but it’s questionable how much he actually declined. The 28 year-old’s XFIP was 3.86 in ‘08, and a slightly-lower 3.77 in 2009. Jenks’ K rate bounced back this year (5.55 K/9 in ‘08, 8.27 K/9 in ‘09), but a huge 17% home run/fly ball rate put a big dent in his season. He’s basically the same guy: a good late-inning arm, if not an elite one.

With Bobby out of commission, Thornton and Dotel figure to get dibs on any save ops for the Pale Hose. Per Win Probability Added, Thornton (+2.87) has Dotel (+0.74) beat by a healthy margin. Same goes for XFIP (2.92 for Matt, 4.33 for Octavio). Thornton has whiffed 10.72 hitters per nine frames this year, firing a blistering 96 MPH fastball nearly 90 percent of the time.

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

The Jays haven’t had a save converted since Sept. 12th, when Frasor took down the Tigers. Frasor (a former Detroit prospect himself) blew a save op against the Tigers on the 14th (3 runs allowed, including a homer), then took a loss against the Yankees on the 16th (2 hits and a run). He allowed another run in an appearance vs. Baltimore on the 21st, then finally tossed a clean inning yesterday against the O’s.

Downs, meanwhile, has had some trouble of his own. He blew a save op vs. the Bronx Bombers Sept. 16th, giving up 3 hits two runs and a homer. He hasn’t appeared in a game since.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Watch Your Back: Kevin Jepsen

Are the buzzards circling Fuentes? Shiny save total aside, the former Rockie hasn’t enjoyed a stellar first year with the Halos. His XFIP, 3.25 in 2008, has soared to 5.09 this year. Fuentes’ K rate (7.71 per nine) has dipped considerably, and is the worst mark of his big league career. The lefty’s fastball has still been effective (+0.66 runs/100), but he’s lost control of his mid-70’s slider (-0.82 runs/100). That has led to more contact (79.5 contact%, 73.4% career) and plenty of hitter’s counts (52.2 first-pitch strike%, 58% MLB avg).

As Eno Sarris noted, Fuentes’ hiccups could open the door for Jepsen. A 25 year-old right-hander toting upper-90’s gas (96.2 MPH), Jepsen missed many bats in the minors (8.4 K/9) while generally having no idea where the ball was going (5.4 BB/9).

Jepsen appears to have made some progress on that front. In 50.2 IP this year, the 6-3, 215 pounder has whiffed 7.46 per nine innings, with 2.84 BB/9. Using that zipping fastball (+1.56 runs/100) and a hard 90 MPH cutter (+1.61), Jepsen has generated grounders at a 57.1% clip. If Jepsen can keep the walks in check, Fuentes’ hold on the closer job could become tenuous.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Hardly all that the Indians had hoped for this season (0.5 WAR, or $2.1M worth of value while making $10M), Wood surrendered a run vs. the Royals on Sept. 13th then pitched a clean inning against Oakland on the 19th. Kerry’s O-Swing% fell off a cliff this year, from 31.3% in 2008 to just 19.4% in 2009. That’s one of the 10 lowest rates among all relievers. Wood’s 90 MPH cutter (+1.18 runs/100) and 79 MPH curve (+2.01) worked well, but his 96 MPH heater (-0.52) was often hit hard.

Perez has followed up a dominant stretch of pitching with some rocky outings (4 R, 2 H vs. Minnesota on the 14th and 2 R against the Tigers on the 22nd). The former Hurricane was quite sharp in July and August (4 BB in 19 IP), but he has dished out 5 walks in 8.1 September frames. If Perez can find the strike zone more consistently, he could challenge Wood for ninth-inning glory in 2010.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is having a rocky September, with 7 runs and 8 walks allowed in 9.1 IP. The 32 year-old could be headed for a big payday, if some team sees a “proven closer” who collected 34 saves in 35 attempts this season.

A more thorough examination, though, would uncover mediocre peripheral stats (7.93 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.31 XFIP). Other warning signs: Rodney’s rate of contact within the strike zone jumped up to 83.6% (79.5% career avg.), with his overall contact rate climbing to 76.7% (73% career avg). Rodney hasn’t posted a WAR total above 0.7 dating back to 2002; his performance has been worth an average of $2.4M per season over the past three years.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

September has not been kind to Johnson, as he has coughed up 11 hits and 9 runs in 6 innings pitched. His XFIP for the year is 4.06. The 26 year-old has posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9, with a 52 percent groundball rate.

Looking forward to 2010, Johnson’s principal competition, assuming the O’s don’t look outside of the organization, might be righty Kam Mickolio (currently sidelined with an elbow injury). Part of the Erik Bedard trade (the gift that keeps on giving for Baltimore fans), Mickolio stands 6-foot-7, sits in the mid-90’s with his fastball and has punched out 10.6 hitters per nine innings at the AAA level. However, inconsistent control has stalled his progress.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon is untouchable right now. The 25 year-old closer with NFL lineman size has not allowed a run to score on his watch in over a month (Aug. 19th, to be exact). Over that time frame, Broxton has laid waste to hitters with 26 K’s and three walks in 14.2 IP. Jon has 13.69 K/9 for the year, while inducing weak grounders when hitters actually do manage to make contact (55.2 GB%). Broxton’s +3.60 Win Probability Added is tops in the National League.

Heath Bell, Padres

Is Heath tiring in September? Bell has gotten his bell rung for 13 hits, 8 runs and 5 walks in 13 frames this month. There’s nothing wrong with his velocity (93.6 MPH in Sept.), but the pitch has been smacked (-0.6 runs/100, compared to +1.67 for the year). Rough finish or not, Bell has been outstanding the season. With 9.86 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9, Heath has a 3.18 Expected Fielding Independent ERA.

Huston Street, Rockies

Sidelined since September 1st with a biceps injury, Street returned to action on the 22nd against the Padres. Franklin Morales could get a couple more save ops as Huston gets back into working order, though there’s no reason to doubt that Street will have the job back before long. In 55.1 IP this season, the former A has whiffed 10.25 per nine innings while issuing just 1.79 BB/9.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman has collected four saves since the last Closer Report, K’ing four and walking none in four innings from Sept. 13th to the 23rd. Trevor hasn’t been at dominant force that his 1.84 ERA would indicate (his HR/FB rate is 3.5%) , but his XFIP is a solid 3.63. That low HR/FB rate and good fortune on balls put in play (.254 BABIP) inflate the figure somewhat, but Hoffman’s 85.5 MPH “heat” has been worth +2.81 runs per 100 pitches thrown. He continues to pull the strong with aplomb, too (+4.08 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson continues to roll. He hasn’t coughed up a run since August 25th, a stretch of 10 innings in which the high-octane righty has punched out 12 and walked just one. Putting an exclamation point on an excellent season, Wilson has struck out the side in each of his last two appearances (Sept. 21st and 23rd vs. Arizona). In 70 frames, the former 24th-round pick has posted rates of 10.16 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9. Wilson’s fastball, straight as an arrow in 2008, has shown more tailing action this year. His run value with the pitch has climbed from +0.89 runs/100 pitches in ‘08 to +1.67 this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod is missing plenty of bats as a forgettable 2009 season comes to a close (10 K in 6.2 IP), but he has also allowed four runs in the process. Rodriguez’s K/BB ratio (2.03) is the lowest of his career, with a 4.06 XFIP (his XFIP has increased every season since 2004). K-Rod’s 93 MPH fastball has been adequate (+0.03 runs/100 pitches) and his mid-80’s change is still sweet (+4.2 runs/100), but his 80 MPH curve has lacked bite (-0.18 runs/100, +2.56 career). Rodriguez has thrown a first-pitch strike just 50.5% of the time (58% MLB avg).

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano got slammed against Philly on Sept. 19th, giving up 5 hits, 4 runs and a homer. The Mets have been more accommodating, as the pending free agent notched back-to-back saves on the 22nd and the 23rd. Soriano has a career-best 11.9 K/9, with both his 93 MPH fastball (+1.21 runs/100) and 83 MPH slider (+1.55) giving hitters fits.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde hit a bit of a rough patch since our last Closer Report, giving up 5 hits and 2 runs in 3 frames from Sept. 19th to the 23rd. In his walk year, Papa Grande has punched out 9.88 batters per nine innings, with 3.18 BB/9. Valverde has gradually increased the usage of his splitter, while tossing fewer heaters:

2006: 84.4% FB, 9.8% SF
2007: 77.8% FB, 20% SF
2008: 74.1% FB, 24.4% SF
2009: 69.4% FB, 26.5% SF

Counter intuitively, Valverde’s K rate has dipped all four years (from 12.59 per nine in ‘06 to the aforementioned 9.88 this year), while his outside-swing% has jumped (22.4% in ‘06 to 32.6% in ‘09).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected five saves in five scoreless frames from Sept. 12th to the 17th, whiffing three and walking none. The wheels came off against Florida on the 18th, however, as he coughed up four runs and four hits. Entering the 9th with a 3-0 lead, Cincy had about a 95% chance of getting the W before it all blew up like a cheap Acme bomb.

Cordero has turned in back-to-back ordinary seasons, with a 4.08 XFIP in 2008 and a 4.11 XFIP this year. His K rate (7.79 per nine) is down, the product of fewer outside swings (25.2% in ‘09, 30.4% in ‘08) and more contact (75.5% in ‘09, 70.7% in ‘08).

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Marmol continues to make Cubs fans and fantasy owners all twitchy. The 26 year-old with the wicked slider is generating huge whiff totals in September (13 K in 9.2 IP), but those punch outs are accompanied by eye-popping walk totals (six so far this month). Marmol has issued a mind-bending 7.47 walks per nine frames in 2009. To put that into context, the closest “competition” for Carlos among relievers (minimum 50 IP) is Florida’s Renyel Pinto, at 6.79.

As one might expect, Marmol is falling behind hitters often (50.2 first-pitch strike%, 58% MLB. avg). Opponents have responded to Carlos’ oscillating from unhittable to unable to toss a strike by laying off his stuff thrown off the plate:

O-Swing%, by year:

2007: 30.1
2008: 24.2
2009: 21.1

(25% MLB avg.)

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

The 36 year-old righty enjoyed a charmed 2009 season until the calendar flipped to September. Franklin posted minuscule ERA’s for most of the year, despite just so-so peripherals (6.56 K/9, 3.2 BB/9). This month, Franklin has surrendered 12 hits, 7 runs and 7 walks in 7.1 IP. Ryan’s XFIP for the year is 4.14, over two runs higher than his ERA (1.98). Franklin is a decent middle reliever, not a shut-down late-inning option.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Watch Out For: Joel Hanrahan

Hanrahan is battling a sore elbow and ever-present control problems (20 BB in 29.1 IP with the Bucs), so Capps probably doesn’t have to worry about someone stealing his job right now. Of course, that point has been entirely moot, with the Pirates plummeting toward a possible 100-loss season (56-94 at the moment).

In limited September work, Capps has allowed 9 hits and 3 runs in 8 IP, with 5 K’s, 1 BB and 1 HR. His K’s and walks aren’t as bad as his 5.79 ERA would suggest (7.36 K/9, 2.81 BB/9), but home runs have been a serious problem (1.75 HR/9). Capps’ home run/fly ball rate (13.9%) is a little inflated, but the flyball-centric hurler has a yawn-inducing 4.52 XFIP.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Nunez notched saves on Sept. 15th, 16th, 18th and the 22nd, but Lindstrom did collect his first since June when he subdued the Reds on the 19th. Here’s a tale of the tape between the two in 2009:

K/9: 8.03 Nunez, 7.14 Lindstrom
BB/9: 3.18 Nunez, 4.63 Lindstrom
HR/9: 1.80 Nunez, 0.96 Lindstrom
XFIP: 4.26 Nunez, 4.73 Lindstrom

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

Gutierrez tallied scoreless saves vs. the Padres on Sept. 14 and the 15th. However, his last two appearances have been bumpy. He gave up two hits and a run while still getting a save against Colorado on the 18th, then surrendered 3 hits and 3 runs vs. San Francisco in a non-save situation on the 22nd.

Overall, Juan has 8.38 K/9 and 3.99 BB/9 this year. The 26 year-old former starter has an unusually deep mix of pitches for a ‘pen arm, with a mid-90’s fastball, 83 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve and a mid-80’s change. The slider (used over a quarter of the time) has been Gutierrez’s key offering, with a run value of +3.25 per 100 pitches.

Brad Lidge/Ryan Madson, Phillies

Watch Out For: Brett Myers

Want an example of why saves are a lousy barometer of relief performance? Look no further than Lidge over the past couple weeks. Brad was “successful” three out of four times by the letter of the save, despite getting slammed for 6 runs, 8 hits and 2 walks in 3.2 innings pitched. His latest blow-up occurred vs. Florida yesterday.

It’s hard to find any redeeming quality in Lidge’s season. His XFIP is 4.78, the result of a ballooning walk rate (5.53 BB/9), among other things. His feared mid-80’s slider has been ordinary (+0.07 runs/100, +2.06 career), while Lidge’s fastball has been downright toxic (-3.08 runs/100). When Lidge has actually tossed a pitch over the plate, opponents are making contact far more often (84.4 Z-Contact%, 75.1% career avg). Per Wins Above Replacement, Lights Out has seen a full 3-win swing in value (2.2 WAR in 2008, -0.8 in 2009).

With manager Charlie Manuel not having the utmost confidence in Myers’ health, Madson figures to reclaim the role if Philly finally admits that Lidge just isn’t rounding into form.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal has been mauled this September. In eight innings, Mac has issued 10 walks, while allowing 13 hits and nine runs. The 32 year-old righty hasn’t shown any semblance of control in 2009, with a Marmol-esque 6.7 BB/9. He’s not even fooling hitters like he used to, with 5.44 K/9 and a contact rate (84.2%) well above his career 78.1% average.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera missed several games with a sore groin, but he returned to pick up a save vs. the fading Rays on Sept. 7th (2 K, 1 BB) and then notched a W with a scoreless inning against Tampa the next day. The ageless king of the cutter has 9.99 K/9, with 1.56 BB/9 in 57.2 innings. That biting 91 MPH offering has been worth +2.34 runs per 100 pitches thrown.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against the White Sox on Sept. 6th, then surrendered a run and 2 H in a 1.1 inning save vs. the O’s on the 9th. Despite suffering through some control issues earlier in the year, Papelbon leads all big league relievers with a 4.57 Win Probability Added.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Since he was shockingly beaten for four runs and two dingers against the White Sox on Sept 2nd, Nathan has rebounded to collect three saves in three spotless innings (4 K, no walks or hits). The 34 year-old righty has shown no signs of tailing off in 2009, whiffing 11.82 batters per nine frames with 2.72 BB/9. Nathan’s 33.2 O-Swing% is his best mark dating back to 2002 (25% MLB avg), and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA sits at a shiny 3.01.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim was a busy man this week, collecting four saves (one apiece against LAA and CLE, and two vs. Detroit). In all, Soria struck out eight, walked one and allowed no runs in 3.2 IP. The Mexicutioner’s K rate has spiked in ‘09, all the way up to 12.13 per nine innings (8.82 in 2008). Not surprisingly, Soria’s contact rate (71.5%, 80.5 MLB avg.) is a career low. His curveball (+4.79 runs/100 pitches thrown) is illegal in several states.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

As Dave Allen notes, Bailey has turned in a superb rookie campaign. The imposing right-hander has laid waste to hitters with a stifling 94 MPH fastball (+1.86 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.24) and a 78 MPH curve (+2.97). Bailey has been worth 2 Wins Above Replacement this season. Only Jonathan Broxton, Brian Wilson and Matt Thornton top that mark among relievers. The 25 year-old picked up his 23rd save of the season on Sept. 6th, striking out two against the Mariners.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Bobby worked just once since we last checked in on the A.L.’s closers, firing two scoreless innings vs. the A’s in a non-save situation on Sept. 9th. Jenks’ secondary stuff has been outstanding in 2009 (+1.91 runs/100 for the slider, +3.45 for the curve), but his fastball hasn’t been as effective. Bobby’s heater was worth +1.55 runs/100 in both 2007 and 2008, but the pitch checks in at -0.47 this year.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma has experienced plenty of control issues during the course of his big league career (5.3 BB/9), but he has not issued a free pass in his last seven frames. The electric right-hander hasn’t been a strike-throwing fiend or anything, but his 4.6 BB/9 rate is a career-best. Aardsma has been rather fortunate in the HR department (3.6 HR/FB%), but Safeco is a pretty sweet venue for a flyball reliever backed by outstanding defenders. His XFIP is 4.23.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Things have not been A-Okay for J.P. lately, as the finesse lefty who gets power results has given up four runs and four walks in 2 IP this month. Howell has actually appeared in five games in September, but one stint lasted just 0.1 IP, and his last two (the 5th and the 6th vs. Detroit) resulted in his being pulled before he recorded an out.

J.P.’s K rate has increased three years running (8.65 in ‘07, 9.27 in ‘08 and 10.74 in ‘09), but so has his walk rate (3.71 in ‘07, 3.93 in ‘08, 4.24 in ‘09). Despite the rough patch, Howell’s XFIP is still sturdy at 3.46.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Frank took the mound just once this past week, as Texas throttled Cleveland by a combined score of 31-14 in a three-game sweep. Francisco worked a scoreless frame during the first game of a Sept. 8th double-header vs. the Tribe, serving up a two-run tater to Matt LaPorta.

The 30 year-old power righty has punched out 9.94 hitters per nine frames in 2009, with a career-low 2.38 BB/9. Francisco is really attacking the strike zone (55.7 Zone%, 49.3% MLB avg.), and when he does place one off the plate, batters are chasing more often (26.9 O-Swing%, 22.7% career avg).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After walking just one hitter in August, Fuentes has issued ball four on five occasions in 4 September frames. He has allowed five hits and two runs in the process. Fuentes’ XFIP has ballooned to 4.83 in 2009, as his K rate is a career-worst 7.99 per nine innings. Nothing seems imminent here, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep any eye on Jason Bulger down the stretch.

The 30 year-old former 1st-round pick of the D-Backs has posted rates of 8.74 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 this year. Control has always been a bugaboo for Bulger, however. He has issued 4.6 BB/9 during his major league tenure, with a 47.8 first-pitch strike% (58.2 MLB avg).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is back, but Frasor continues to get the call in the ninth inning. Frasor racked up three saves this week, taking down the Twins twice (Sept. 8th and the 10th) and then de-clawing the Tigers yesterday. He struck out two in three scoreless innings, without allowing a hit.

The former 33rd-round draft pick who bounced from Detroit to Los Angeles (Dodgers) before getting a shot in Toronto has posted rates of 8.76 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9 in 2009. An increase in his outside swing% (up to 24.8%; his career mark is 19%) has helped, and Frasor has turned in a very fine year. But a .250 BABIP and a 5.3 HR/FB% explain the difference between his great ERA (2.15) and merely good XFIP (3.77).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is enduring an awfully rough September, having allowed five runs, four hits and five walks in 4.2 IP. The pending free agent may come with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, but his peripherals (8.37 K/9, 4.62 BB/9) remain more adequate than awesome. The 32 year-old has a 4.21 XFIP in 2009, the third straight season in which that figure has risen.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Appearances have been few and far between for Johnson as Baltimore plays out the string. The Bronx Bombers bashed Jim for 3 hits, 5 runs and two walks without retiring a batter on Sept. 2nd, and then he picked up a save in a much more quiet cameo against Texas on the 5th. In 61.2 IP this season, Johnson has struck out 6.28 per nine innings, with 2.92 BB/9.

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Wood took some time off to rest his ailing shoulder, but he has chucked two clean innings since returning. He notched his 18th and 19th saves of the season against Minnesota on Sept. 4th and the 6th. That’s a happy development for Wood. Because, if you listen really closely, you can hear Perez breathing down Kerry’s neck.

The former St. Louis Cardinal experienced a bump in the road vs. Texas on the 8th (Marlon Byrd took him deep), but Perez has been money for the most part. Since coming to Cleveland, he has posted a 32/8 K/BB ratio in 25.2 IP.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton began August with a rough stretch of appearances (4 runs, 3 HR in 5 IP from the 5th to the 15th), but the big righty has allowed just 1 run in 11.2 IP since. Jon’s fastball velocity for the season sits at 97.7 MPH. In each season in the big leagues Big Jon has increased the zip on his heater (he threw “only” 94.4 MPH in ‘04, 95 in ‘06, 95.2 in ‘07 and 96.3 in ‘08). As if that pitch weren’t enough to contend with (+1.14 runs/100 pitches thrown in 2009), Broxton’s high-80’s slider is even nastier (+3.78).

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath collected four saves this past week, whiffing 6, walking zero and allowing 0 runs in the process. In 56 frames this season, Bell has posted a career-best 10.13 K/9, with 2.89 BB/9. Both his 94 MPH cheese (+2.25 runs/100) and low-80’s breaking stuff (+1.24 for the slider, +0.96 for the curve; some of these pitches could be mixed but you get the point) are working exceptionally well.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has not pitched since Sept. 1, as he is battling a bout of biceps tendinitis. The injury isn’t expected to keep the resurgent Rockie out for too long, but lefty Franklin Morales is filling the role in the meantime.

The 23 year-old Venezuelan was a highly-touted starting pitching prospect by virtue of his low-90’s heat and slow, sharp-breaking curveball. Those gifts helped Morales punch out a batter per inning in the minors. However, herky-jerky mechanics and a subsequent lack of control (5.2 BB/9 in the minors) have led some to question his ability to be efficient and face lineups multiple times.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman was awesome in August, with an 11/1 K/BB and 2 runs allowed in 11 IP. He has also started off September with a bang, striking out the side versus the Cardinals on the 3rd. Hell’s Bells hasn’t been as dominant as the 1.71 ERA would suggest (his BABIP is a little low at .269, and his HR/FB% is a microscopic 2.1%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, derived from a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) is more solid than spectacular at 3.63.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Saves have been few and far between for K-Rod (three in July, five in August), though he did notch one against the Cubs yesterday. Any way you want to cut it, Rodriguez is in the midst of his worst season in the majors. His K rate (9.4 per nine innings) is a career-worst, as is his 4.92 BB/9 mark. After compiling Win Probability Added totals ranging from 3.09 to 4.98 between 2004 and 2008, K-Rod has a 0.87 WPA in ‘09. I have shown these figures before, but they really do illustrate the gradual downward slope in Rodriguez’s performance:

XFIP, by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.21

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano scuffled in early August (5 runs and 2 homers allowed in 5 IP from Aug. 1st to the 15th), but he has since allowed 2 runs in his past eight frames. However, those two runs have come in his past two appearances. Soriano allowed a runner to cross the plate vs. Florida on Aug. 31st (non-save op), then served up a tater to Dan Uggla the next night (he still got the save). Rafael will turn 30 this off-season, and he makes for a very interesting free agent case. He’s obviously electric when healthy (12.39 K/9 in 2009), but he missed practically the entire 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons with injuries. Soriano is basically the relief equivalent of Rich Harden.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up two saves in three appearances this week, striking out two and walking one. The 26 year-old has punched out a career-best 10.09 batters per nine frames, while lowering his walk rate from 4.04 per nine in 2008 to 3.55 this season. Wilson’s XFIP is a quality 3.31 in 2009. He’s more than just a hard-throwing, mo-hawked curiousity: he’s a worthy fantasy option.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has yet to make an appearance in September. He ended August with a pair of scoreless, 2-K outings (vs. Arizona on the 30th and a save op against the Cubs on the 31st). Papa Grande has posted rates of 10.47 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9 in his walk year, while getting opposing batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 31.5 percent of the time.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Close to inking a two-year contract extension with the Red Birds, the 36 year-old Franklin did not surrender a single run in 11 IP during the month of August. Continuing the tight-rope act that has come to define his 2009 season, Franklin evaded danger. He struck out just four batters, while not displaying his typically strong control either (six walks).

Financial terms don’t seem to be available yet for Franklin’s extension, but hopefully the Cardinals aren’t paying him as though he has experienced some massive breakout in 2009. His BABIP is .230, his strand rate is near 90 percent, and his HR/FB% is just 3.5%; all of those things scream “regression to the mean.” Ryan’s ERA is 1.37, while his XFIP is nearly three runs higher at 4.28

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero’s control has been MIA, as he has issued six free passes in his past 5.2 IP. Francisco’s peripherals this season (7.67 K/9, 4.15 BB/9) don’t really jive with his 2.24 ERA (his XFIP is 4.10). Opposing batters aren’t chasing Cordero’s stuff as much (his O-Swing% has dipped from a career-best 36.4% in 2007 to a league-average 25.5% in 2009), and he’s not doing a great job in terms of getting ahead in the count (57.1 first-pitch strike%, 58.2% MLB avg).

Matt Capps, Pirates

With the Buccos adrift for a seventeenth straight season (sigh), Capps has done precious little in recent days. Pittsburgh has lost eight straight ball games, and Capps has pitched just once this week (a scoreless inning vs. Cincy on the 1st; sorry, no save). A flyball hurler (career 35.8 GB%), Capps has experienced all sorts of issues with the long ball this year (1.62 HR/9). He hasn’t been particularly unlucky in terms of the percentage of flyballs becoming round-trippers (12.7 HR/FB%). A .376 BABIP has most assuredly contributed to his six-plus ERA (6.09), but his XFIP (4.60) isn’t exactly the stuff relief aces are made of.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Baby steps: since his last disaster piece (3 runs, including a HR, allowed without retiring a batter vs. Pittsburgh on Aug. 25th), Lidge has collected three saves in three scoreless appearances. If you’re looking for a silver lining in a bitterly disappointing campaign, Lidge has issued just one walk in his past 6.1 frames. The overall numbers, obviously, are still poor (4.75 XFIP, with the worst WPA among relievers).

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol continues to cause plenty of indigestion around Wrigleyville, oscillating between dominant and downright unable to find the strike zone. The slider-centric reliever picked up three saves this past week, striking out five and walking two in 3 scoreless innings. Marmol’s walk rate this season (8.23 BB/9) is truly astonishing. As one might expect, he’s often falling behind the hitter (50.9 first-pitch strike%). From there, it’s a matter of whether Marmol can tame his biting 83 MPH breaking ball.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Is it time to just label Nunez as Florida’s ninth-inning option? The string-bean right-hander has logged every save op for the Fish for a considerable time now. In 59.1 innings this season, Nunez has posted rates of 8.19 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9, with a 4.20 XFIP.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, seemed to enter the Twilight Zone in August. The high-octane, control-challenged reliever surrendered five runs in 11 innings, but it’s how he did it that’s bizarre. Lindstrom punched out just six hitters, while not walking a single batter (he has chucked 2.2 walk-less innings in September as well).

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

Get better, Chad: Qualls’ 2009 season came to an abrupt, painful end when he dislocated his left kneecap on the last out of Arizona’s Sunday tilt with the Astros. Qualls is expected to undergo surgery, though he’s supposed to be ready for the start of the 2010 season.

With Qualls on the mend, the D-Backs will hand the ball to righty Juan Gutierrez. The 26 year-old was actually acquired in the same swap that brought Qualls to the desert (along with Chris Burke) in exchange for Jose Valverde in December of 2007. Gutierrez totes mid-90’s heat, though an 83 MPH slider has been his most effective offering (-0.32 runs/100 for the fastball, +4.34 for the slider). In 80.2 major league innings, the Venezuelan has punched out 7.92 batters per nine innings, with 3.68 BB/9.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal turned in a very nice month of August (14 IP, 10/4 K/BB, 5 H, 0 R). But before you get too excited, consider that August was also the first time that the former Royal and White Sock struck out more batters than he walked in 2009. To start September, Mac allowed a run and two walks vs. San Diego on the 2nd and then pitched a scoreless frame against the Marlins yesterday (2 K, 1 BB). Hitters facing MacDougal know that they’re going to get something hard: he’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball nearly 88 percent of the time, while mixing in the occasional mid-80’s slider.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera just keeps rolling along, with 7 saves and 1 run allowed in 8.2 August frames. Mo slammed the door on the Mariners on August 15th and the A’s on the 19th. Mo’s 3.20 Win Probability Added places second among all relievers, and he boasts a 57/8 K/BB ratio in 52 innings pitched.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Mr. Nathan was hit with a comebacker this past week, but he says that he’s just fine. He chucked three innings without surrendering a run, racking up saves on the 18th and the 19th vs. the Rangers. The 34 year-old has turned in a remarkable season, with 11.76 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Nathan’s 32.4 O-Swing% is well above the 25% MLB average, with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.35 runs/100 pitches thrown), 88 MPH slider (+2.71) and 82 MPH curve (+3.38) causing all sorts of issues for hitters.

Joakim Soria, Royals

With Soria’s shoulder woes apparently in the past, the Royals have taken to using their closer for six-out saves (3 of Joakim’s last 6 saves ops have been of the two-inning variety). The Rule V gem worked another six-out stint vs. Detroit in a non-save situation on the 16th, then locked down his 20th save of the season against the White Sox on the 18th. The former starter has gradually mixed in his strong secondary offerings more often: his percentage of fastballs thrown has gone from 77.2% in 2007 to 66.6% in 2009.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is having an awfully strange season. On the one hand, he leads all relievers in Win Probability Added (+3.70), as he has often escaped jams in high-leverage situations. On the other, he’s walking nearly 4 batters per nine innings (3.98 BB/9), compared to a career rate of 2.43 walks per nine frames. Jonathan got a save against Toronto on August 18th, but not before issuing three walks and allowing 2 hits in 1.1 IP. With fewer pitches hitting the mark, opponents have cut their percentage of pitches swung at from 55.6% in 2008 to 48.6% in 2009 (45.1% MLB average).

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has served up three dingers this month, with 5 walks, 6 H and 4 R in 8 innings pitched. He did manage two saves this week (his 13th and 14th), and J.P.’s 69/22 K/BB for the year remains stellar. How is Howell so tough to hit? Well, he’s certainly not giving anything away with his release point. Check out his release chart from an August 16th appearance against the Blue Jays:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks served up another jimmy jack this week, getting taken deep by Oakland’s Mark Ellis in a loss on August 16th. He did collect two saves, closing out games against the Royals on the 17th and the 19th. Bobby’s peripherals are actually much stronger this year than in 2008: his K rate has jumped from 5.55 to 8.52 per nine innings, while lowering his walk rate from 2.48 to 2.28. However, a .307 BABIP and a big ol’ 15.8 HR/FB% have made his 2009 ERA (3.74) appear far worse than 2008’s mark (2.63). Keep that in mind for next year’s draft, as Jenks hasn’t really declined and could be had at a bargain price.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey pitched three times this week, with a scoreless inning against the White Sox on August 14th and the 16th (neither was a save op, though he picked up a W on the 16th), then notching a save against the Yankees on the 18th. The 25 year-old rookie has been very sharp this month, with 5 K’s, zero walks, 0 runs and 1 hit allowed in 6 IP. Bailey is approaching the 2.0 Wins Above Replacement mark, currently sitting at 1.9 WAR.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma’s August has conjured up some memories of the explosive work that caused him to bounce from San Francisco, to both sides of Chicago, to Boston and finally to Seattle. He has coughed up 6 runs in 6.1 IP, with 5 walks and 2 HR allowed. The extreme fly ball pitcher (his 56 FB% is the 3rd-highest among relievers) was bound to surrender a few big flies eventually (his HR/FB% remains at a teensy 4.0). The former first-rounder out of Rice has surely been a nice pickup for the M’s, but his XFIP (4.42) is considerably higher than his 2.43 ERA.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was awfully busy this week, appearing four times. He got three saves (two vs. Baltimore, one vs. Cleveland), but he did blow a chance against the O’s as well. His 2009 strikeout rate (8.42 batters per nine innings) is well below his career mark of 10.07 K/9. The culprit would appear to be a less effective breaking ball. Fuentes’ slider was worth +2.06 runs/100 pitches in 2008, but a paltry -0.66 runs/100 in his first year with the Angels.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

On August 14th, Francisco endured the sort of apocalyptic appearance that can torch a reliever’s entire season line. Frank was fried for 7 hits, 6 runs and a homer in just 0.2 IP, jet-propelling his ERA from 2.01 to 3.66. He did settle down in subsequent outings, with two scoreless save ops (Boston on the 16th, Minnesota on the 17th). Francisco has a strong 40/8 K/BB in 34 IP.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry tossed two innings this past week, whiffing four, walking two and allowing a run. Wood’s 4.13 XFIP isn’t as ugly as his 4.71 ERA, as a big uptick in his HR/FB rate has harmed the Texan (15.6% in 2009). Still, Wood’s WPA remains in negative territory (-0.34), and batters just plain aren’t chasing his stuff. The former Cub garnered outside swings 31.3% of the time in ‘08, but just 19.3% in ‘09.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Frasor notched a save against the Rays on August 14th, then pitched another scoreless frame vs. Boston on the 18th (he did walk 2 in the non-save op, though). The diminutive right-hander has certainly had plenty of bounces go his way this year, with a .256 BABIP and a 1.9 HR/FB%. Frasor’s 4.02 XFIP more than doubles his 1.87 ERA.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Fernando took a loss against the Royals on August 16th, then picked up a save against the Mariners on the 18th. He has induced plenty of groundballs this season (56.6 GB%, 10 percentage points above his career average), though control often remains elusive (4.25 BB/9). Somehow, opposing batters have a 9 percent line drive rate against Rodney. That’s the lowest rate among all relievers.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Baltimore’s new stopper tossed three scoreless innings in two appearances this week, though neither was a save opportunity. There’s nothing in particular that wows you about the 26 year-old right-hander, but he has increased his Outside-Swing% from 23.3% in 2008 to 26.1% in 2009, while lowering his contact rate from 86.7% to 80.2%. He’s keeping his infielders busy (52.1 GB%), and has a 2.17 K/BB ratio. Not great, but he’ll manage to get three outs before the opposition scores 1-3 runs most of the time (as would many other relievers).

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo racked up two saves in three appearances this week, though he did give up a run against the Blue Jays on August 11th (Edwin Encarnacion hit a homer). The former Red’s round-tripper marked the first time that the opposition crossed home plate against Rivera since June 12th. He’s punching out 10.1 batters per nine innings, with 1.29 BB/9. Rivera’s 2.89 WPA is the 4th-best mark in the majors.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe gave up a run vs. Detroit on the 7th, but he bounced back to strike out the side against the Royals on the 12th (neither game was a save opportunity). Nathan’s K rate (11.75) is nearly two whiffs per nine higher than 2008’s mark (9.84), and he has lowered his walk rate to boot (2.39 BB/9 to 2.06 BB/9). His first-pitch strike percentage is 67.9, scores ahead of the 58.2% MLB average.

Joakim Soria, Royals

After seemingly forgetting that Soria was in the bullpen in early July, manager Trey Hillman has started to use the Mexicutioner (a former starter with a deep repertoire) to get six-out saves. Three of Soria’s last 5 save ops have been of the six-out variety, a refreshing change (in Hillman’s defense, Soria’s shoulder woes earlier in the season could have contributed to his usage). Joakim didn’t have a banner week, however. He was lit up on the 8th vs. the A’s, giving up dingers to Tommy Everidge and Mark Ellis. Soria did rebound against Minnesota yesterday, firing two scoreless innings.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched 2.2 scoreless innings between two appearances on the 7th (Yankees) and the 10th (Detroit), but he gave up 2 runs against the Tigers on the 11th (including a HR to Curtis Granderson). Papelbon’s FIP (3.55) is well north of his 2.69 career average, as 50.8% of his pitches are crossing home plate (that’s down from 54.5% in ‘08; Jon’s Zone% has dipped each season since 2006).

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. twiddled his thumbs this week: he hasn’t made an appearance since our last Closer Report. The former Royal (pilfered from K.C. in June of 2006 for excellent-car-jumper-but-bad-ball player Joey Gathright) has punched out 10.54 hitters per nine innings, with excellent secondary offerings (+1.72 runs/100 pitches for the curve, +5.08 runs/100 for the change) and a sneaky mid-80’s fastball (+0.96).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

With his kidney stones issue mercifully behind him, Jenks pitched 3.2 scoreless frames this past week (one save vs. Seattle on the 11th). Bobby hasn’t allowed a run in August, a welcome change after a July that saw far too many fireworks for the opposition (8 runs in 7.1 IP). Jenks has rates of 8.55 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, giving him a 3.55 XFIP. That’s lower than 2008’s 3.86 figure, despite Bobby’s 2009 ERA (3.83) being 1.2 runs higher than his 2008 mark (2.63).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey was touched up in the second half of July, but has begun August well. Bailey notched two saves this week, with clean innings against the Royals on the 9th and the Orioles on the 12th. He hasn’t walked a batter over his past six innings, and has rates of 10.13 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 for the season. Bailey throws plenty hard (94 MPH with his fastball), but he doesn’t fit the archetypal power reliever mold. The former starter uses his heater around 56% of the time, mixing in cutters over a quarter of the time and curveballs about 15 percent.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save against one of his former teams (the White Sox) on August 10th, but the Pale Hose pummeled him for 3 hits and 3 runs (including a HR to Alexei Ramirez) in a blown save op on the 11th. The 27 year-old right-hander continues to rack up K’s (10.53 K/9) and walks (5.09) by the bucketful. Safeco suppresses homer production, but Aardsma has been lucky to surrender a 2.9 HR/FB% this season.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got 2 saves this week, closing the door vs. Texas on August 8th and the Rays on the 10th. The lefty hasn’t had much success with his slider this season (-0.26 runs/100 pitches), which helps to explain a lower outside-swing% (23.5, 29.4% in 2008) and a higher rate of contact (79.7%, up from 73.4% in ‘08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Francisco appeared just once this week, picking up a save vs. the Indians yesterday (his 16th of the season). Frank’s frequent absences (he’s been on the DL three times in 2009) might have obscured the type of season that he’s having. The 6-3, 230 pound righty has whiffed 10.05 per nine innings, with 2.3 BB/9. The key has been a filthy 86 MPH splitter. The pitch was rarely successful in the past (-0.47 runs/100 value since 2002), but the splitter has a +4.65 figure in 2009. Francisco has increased his usage of the pitch, tossing it 19.1% of the time after throwing the split closer to 10% in past seasons.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has actually resembled the closer in the free agent catalogue this month. In 4 August frames, Wood has whiffed 4, while walking none and surrendering no runs. As Pitch F/X whiz Harry Pavlidis noted on The Hardball Times, the Texan has scrapped his slider in favor of a cutter in 2009. There hasn’t been anything wrong with his new toy (+0.48 runs/100 pitches with the cutter) or his 80 MPH curve. Wood’s 96 MPH fastball, however, is another story (-1.15 runs/100 pitches).

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Returned to the closer’s role with Scott Downs nursing a toe injury, Frasor frazzled hitters with 2.2 innings of spotless pitching this week (including a save vs. the Yankees on August 10th). Frasor’s 3.36 K/BB ratio is the best of his career, an uptick keyed by a climb in outside-swing percentage (24.7% in ‘09, 18.8% career average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney got rocked August 7th vs. the Twins (3 H, 2 R), and got taken deep by Michael Cuddyer on the 9th while collecting a save. Fernando picked up another save yesterday afternoon vs. Boston as well. Rodney’s ERA (3.78) is well below 2008’s mark (4.91), though he’s not really pitching all that differently. His XFIP is 4.19 in ‘09, which is actually higher than 2008’s 4.06.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson got two saves this week (one against Toronto on the 7th and another vs. Oakland on the 11th), tossing three innings of scoreless relief overall. He throws awfully hard (94.4 MPH), but that doesn’t necessarily translate to a ton of missed bats. Johnson’s whiffing 6.36 hitters per nine innings, with a 4.19 FIP. He won’t be a liability in the role (Johnson does a decent job of limiting the free passes and getting grounders). But, it’s also hard to call Johnson a big asset, as a middle reliever cast into a late-inning role in a cut-throat division.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton really hasn’t been his typical dominant self since the All-Star break, as he has a 2.20 K/BB ratio since the mid-summer classic (3.82 K/BB prior). The 25 year-old blew a save op vs. the Braves on August 7th, chucked a clean inning against Atlanta the next night and then collected a save against San Francisco on the 10th (Bengie Molina took him deep). Perhaps Broxton’s toe injury is playing a part. Still, his overall numbers are sick: 13.24 K/9, with a 2.73 Win Probability Added.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath had another successful week, collecting two saves in three innings without allowing a run. He failed to whiff a batter, a rarity given that Bell’s K rate (9.91) is well above his 8.19 mark during the 2008 season. The 6-3, 240 pound righty has dominated hitters with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.12 runs/100 pitches), as well as a pair of nasty breaking pitches (+1.24 runs/100 for the slider, +2.35 for the curve).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street started the week off well (a scoreless inning against the Cubs on the 7th), but Chicago then crushed the former Longhorn for 4 hits, 4 R and a walk in a 0.1-inning disaster appearance on the 10th. It was a rare blow-up for a guy who has posted rates of 10.41 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9, with a 2.26 WPA.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With the Diamondbacks losing 4 of their last 6 (after winning their previous five games), Qualls didn’t see much action this week. He took the hill just once, and it did not end well: he struck out the side vs. the Mets on the 10th, but he was smacked for 3 hits and 2 runs in the process. On the whole, though, the former Astro is turning in a better year than his 3.66 ERA would suggest. His FIP is 2.87, as Qualls has just plain stopped walking people (0.96 BB/9 in 2009).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor pitched twice since our last Closer Report, firing a pair of clean frames vs. his long-time team. Hoffman punched out 2 Padres, without allowing a hit. The 41 year-old still hasn’t been taken deep this season, taking him up to 35 dingerless frames in 2009. While hitters aren’t chasing his stuff out of the zone (his 23.4 O-Swing% is about 9 pct. lower than in 2008), Hoffman’s mid-80’s fastball (+2.71 runs/100 pitches) and low-70’s changeup (+4.01 runs/100) are still producing excellent results.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has been more of an arsonist than a fireman as of late. Rodriguez endured a nightmarish appearance vs. the Padres on the 7th, getting flogged for 2 hits 5 R, 1 HR and 3 BB without retiring a single batter. He pitched a scoreless inning against San Diego on the 9th, but he was back to getting beat up against the D-Backs on the 12th (2 H and a R, though he did pick up the save, again proving that most Joe Blow relievers could convert 80-90% of save ops, too). The 27 year-old’s peripherals have been crumbling for years, and his 1.77 K/BB ratio is basically half of his rate with the Angels in 2006. K-Rod’s 0.54 WPA is just 3rd in the Mets ‘pen.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano turned in a disaster piece outing vs. the Dodgers on the 6th (3 H and 3 R without retiring a batter, serving up a game-winning homer to Andre Ethier). Rafael pitched a scoreless inning the next night (no save), and then picked up his 17th SV of the year on the 8th (though he was touched up for a run). The pending free agent is punching out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, with a nasty 93 MPH fastball (+1.73 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.73 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson took a beating against the Reds on August 7th (2 hits, 4 R, 3 BB in a blown save op), but he did pick up a save vs. Cincy the next night and whiffed four batters in a 1.1-inning appearance against the Dodgers on the 12th. The 27 year-old is benefitting from a low HR/FB rate (4.3%), but he is pitching rather well with a career-best 2.75 K/BB ratio.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde lost the strike zone during the last week of July (including 5 BB in a 2.1 inning stretch against the Cubs on the 27th and the 28th), but he appears to be back on track now. Valverde collected 2 saves this week, pitching 4 innings with 4 K’s, 0 runs and 1 walk allowed. Papa Grande’s percentage of pitches within the zone has taken a nose dive in recent years (from 59.2% in 2006 to 50.6% this year; the MLB average is 49.3%). Luckily, opposing batters are chasing more of those offerings off the dish (24.4% in 2006 to 32% this year; 25% MLB average).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Walking the tight rope: Cordero coughed up 6 hits in 3 IP this week, but he Houdini’d his way out of all those base runners while allowing one run. He picked up 2 saves along the way. Co-Co’s peripherals for the season aren’t really all that special (7.35 K/9, 3.77 BB), but an 85.7% strand rate and a 4.5 HR/FB% have permitted him to escape many jams. Odds are, he won’t continue to be so fortunate in the future.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to make my head hurt. He’s enjoying a nice season, with 6.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. But those aren’t the sort of numbers that one associates with a Gagne-like 1.20 ERA. Franklin has stranded 91.6% of runners put on base, with a .232 BABIP and a 4.5% HR/FB rate. He’s been an amazing value for those who drafted or picked him up, but the 36 year-old didn’t suddenly emerge as a shut-down, top-tier reliever. He’ll likely be overvalued next season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps kicked off the week with a superb 2-inning, 4 K appearance vs. Arizona on August 6th, but things would quickly turn sour for Pittsburgh’s embattled stopper. Capps blew a save against the Cardinals on the 7th (giving up 2 R without retiring a batter, with Skip Schumaker taking him out of the park), but that appearance looked downright effective compared to yesterday’s drubbing at the hands of the Rockies (0.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R).

Capps has the highest K rate of his career (8.52), but he has issued a career-worst 3.52 BB/9. It won’t do his owners much good, but there are reasons to think that Matt hasn’t been near as bad as that Ponson-esque 6.57 ERA. A .391 BABIP and an inflated HR/FB rate (14.5%) have damaged his season severely. Capps’ XFIP is 4.62. He’s never really been a relief ace: Capps’ XFIP has been in excess of four since 2006.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

This just isn’t getting any better, is it? Lidge was leveled for 4 runs in 3 innings this week, including a blown save against the Cubs on the 11th. His control (5.36 BB/9) has been abominable, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone is up about 5 percentage points. Relief performance is subject to more year-to-year fluctuation, but it’s stunning to look at Lidge’s Wins Above Replacement totals from 2008 (2.2) and 2009 (-0.9). Who would have predicted that the best reliever in baseball last season would be less valuable than Chan Ho Park in 2009?

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Gregg notched a save against the Rockies on August 8th, but he took a loss against Philly on the 11th as he and Brad Lidge battled to see who could inflict more damage on their club’s chances of victory. His K/BB ratio (2.62) easily surpasses 2008’s mediocre 1.57 mark, but a 15.7 HR/FB% has assailed his season. Gregg’s XFIP (4.25) is actually the best figure he has posted since 2004.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Lindstrom (elbow) is off the DL, but Nunez nonetheless took three save chances (and converted each) this past week. The job is still ostensibly Lindstrom’s, but Matt will have to avoid those car wreck appearances that have come to define his 2009 season. On that front, it was a bad week for the former Mets prospect: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R and a homer surrendered. A .365 BABIP certainly isn’t helping, but Lindstrom is issuing 5.4 BB/9.

His fastball has declined by over 2 runs per 100 pitches compared to 2008 (+1.08 runs/100 pitches in ‘08, -1.07 in ‘09). Some of that is the inflated BABIP (those extra hits falling in hurt him in the linear weights formula), but when the pitch that you throw three-quarters of the time isn’t working, you have problems.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

The Nationals reeled off a stunning 8-game winning streak in which MacDougal racked up 5 saves, but the club has since dropped 3 in a row. If you take a very cursory look at the former Royal and White Sock’s season, you might think he’s pitching well (3.74 ERA, 11 for 12 in save ops). However, Mac has been an honorary member of the Mike Williams/Joe Borowski Closer Club, with an abysmal 17/26 K/BB ratio in 33.2 IP. His XFIP is 5.21.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo has fired 3.2 scoreless innings to begin August (including 2 saves vs. the White Sox on the 2nd and the Blue Jays on the 4th), fanning three while surrendering 1 walk and 5 hits. Rivera now boasts a 2.82 Win Probability Added, ranking 4th among all relievers. The Panamanian might not light up the radar gun quite as much as in years past (his cutter averages 91.4 MPH now, about 2 MPH slower than before), but that offering remains as deadly as ever (+2.27 runs per 100 pitches thrown).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe had an extended stretch without an appearance, striking out the side vs. the Angels on July 31st and then not returning to the bump until August 7th (he surrendered a walk and a run to Detroit). By whatever metric you would like to use, Nathan is showing no signs of slowing down at age 34. He’s whiffing 11.39 batters per nine innings, limiting the free passes as usual (2.11 BB/9) and generating ample swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (32.7 O-Swing%).

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria was extremely busy to end the month of July, but the Rule V gem has chucked just one inning in August as the Royals lose five of seven to begin the dog days of summer. Joakim has K’d 11.37 batters per nine innings this season, while posting the lowest XFIP (3.04) of his big league tenure.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Is Papelbon back on track? Not that the 28 year-old has turned in a poor 2009 season, but an inflated walk rate and a subsequent dip in Outside-Swing% suggested that the typically stingy hurler was missing his spots. Over his last three appearances (3.1 IP spanning from 7/31 to 8/7), Papelbon has punched out five without allowing a walk or a hit. The 6-4, 225 pound righty has a 4.30 XFIP for the season, 1.8 runs higher than his 2008 total.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has endured an uneven beginning to the month. He gave up a homer to Yuniesky Betancourt (no, really) on August 1st, tossed 2.2 scoreless frames against Boston on the 4th and 5th, but again was taken deep yesterday in a soul-crushing loss to the Mariners. Howell has walked a batter in all four of his appearances this month, after issuing one free pass during the entire month of July. Recent struggles aside, J.P. has turned in an excellent 2009 season (10.54 K/9, with a 3.15 XFIP).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Think you had a bad week? Odds are, it was better than Bobby Jenks’. The Angels castoff hasn’t pitched since August 1st, as he deals with the excruciating pain caused by kidney stones. Jenks had a rough month of July (8 R, 13 H in 7.1 IP), but hopefully his struggles will, um, pass.

In the short-term, Matt Thornton or Octavio Dotel could pick up a save chance.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

The 6-3, 240 pound rookie picked up a save on July 31st vs. Toronto and collected another August 5th against the Rangers. Bailey doesn’t generate a ton of outside swings (his 25.2 O-Swing% is right around the MLB average). Instead, he uses his 94 MPH fastball, 90 MPH cutter and 78 MPH curveball to challenge (and pummel) hitters. Bailey has placed 53.7% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average), and opponents have put the bat on the ball just 74.1% of the time on those offerings (the lowest rate among relievers).

David Aardsma, Mariners

The well-travelled Aardsma continued his charmed 2009 season, collecting a save vs. the Royals on August 4th and then striking out the side against Tampa Bay yesterday in a non-save situation. On the down side, the former Rice star has walked a batter in each of his last three appearances (taking him back up to 5.08 BB/9 for the year). However, Aardsma is punching out near 11 batters per nine innings. He has accumulated 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season, tied with Joe Nathan for the second-highest total among ‘pen arms. Aardsma’s career WAR total prior to ‘09? 0.1.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After getting torched to end July (6 runs, 2 homers vs. the Indians on the 27th and 28th), Fuentes had plenty of time to recoup. He didn’t get into another game until August 5th, when he surrendered another run (and another dinger) against the White Sox. The port sider’s WPA sits at a modest 0.44 for the season, as hitters aren’t chasing his stuff off the plate as often (23 O-Swing%, down from a career-high 29.4% in 2008). Fuentes is having a hard time getting ahead of the opposition (his 53.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 5 percentage points below the MLB average), and when he does put a pitch in the zone, they’re doing a better job of making contact. Fuentes’ 86.3 Zone-Contact% is well above his 80.2% career average.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

According to manager Ron Washington, Francisco is officially the closer in Texas again (until he contracts the Bubonic Plague or has a Looney Tunes anvil fall on him, that is). In between three DL stints, Francisco has compiled a nifty 34/8 K/BB ratio, displaying a nasty splitter that has hitters eagerly fishing off the plate (28.4 Outside-Swing%, well above his 22.7% career average). Given Frank’s frequent medical mishaps, Wilson is well worth keeping.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood got walloped again on deadline day (2 R, 1 BB, 1 HR in a blown save op vs. Detroit), but he recovered to toss three clean frames to begin August (1 save, vs. Minnesota on the 6th). Kerry is still in the red in terms of WPA (-0.38), as opposing batters have chased just 19.5% of his pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Velocity sure isn’t the problem, as Wood has actually picked up steam as the year has progressed (he’s throwing his fastball at an average of 96.4 MPH this month). A 15.9 HR/FB rate has made Wood’s ERA (4.85) look worse than it should (his XFIP is 4.26). Still, that’s not what the Indians signed up for over the winter.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Perhaps feeling the effects of his aching toe, Downs was taken to the wood shed in late July and early August (8 R, 5 BB, 11 H in 5 IP from 7/21 to 8/1). The 33 year-old is back on the shelf now, leaving closing duties to Frasor. An undersized righty, Frasor possesses a deep mix of pitches (including a 94 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, and an 86 MPH changeup/splitter). He generally hasn’t gotten hitters to chase his stuff out of the zone (18.8 career O-Swing%) and has a walk rate around 3.9 per nine frames for his career. However, Frasor has parlayed an increase in outside hacks (25.1% in 2009) to a pared-down walk rate (2.33 BB/9).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

The 32 year-old Dominican Republic native began the 2009 campaign showing unusually sharp control (2.57 BB/9 in 21 frames in April and May), but Rodney has since returned to his heartburn-inducing ways (6 BB/9 in 27 IP since). And you wonder why Jim Leyland smokes three packs a day?

Rodney’s percentage of pitches within the strike zone has been better in August (51.1%), but his monthly totals nicely illustrate his deteriorating ability to locate:

Zone%, by month:

April: 58.7
May: 48.8
June: 45.0
July: 41.8

(the MLB average is 49.3%; Rodney’s career avg. is 50.8%)

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson had a sour run of appearances in late July (3.1 IP, 3 R, 2 HR from the 20th to the 28th), but he ended the month with a two-inning save. To begin August, the 6-5 right-hander has given up 1 run and a homer in three innings (he collected his 3rd save of the year vs. the Blue Jays yesterday). Johnson isn’t the worst option if you’re jonesing for saves. But, as a low-K closer on a talented-but-still-building O’s club, he’s also about as interesting as his name.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton pitched just once this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Brewers on August 5th. Battling through a big toe injury, the 25 year-old experienced a bumpier month of July (6 runs in 11 innings, with 7 BB’s). It could be a complete coincidence, but Broxton’s pitch usage did shift in July. He’s throwing his 98 MPH fastball about 71 percent of the time for the year, while mixing in an 88 MPH slider 26 percent (he also tosses a rare changeup). But in July, Jon used his fastball over 81 percent of the time, while breaking out the slider just 17 percent. Would a slider be more likely to cause discomfort for his busted digit?

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell worked a scoreless inning in a non-save situation vs. Milwaukee on July 31st, then racked up saves on August 1st vs. the Brewers and the 3rd against the Braves. Heath’s 2.83 Win Probability Added ranks 1st among all National League relievers, as he’s laying waste to opposing hitters by either blowing them away (10.59 K/9) or inducing a weak grounder (51 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street can’t be stopped right now. The former Athletic flummoxed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12 K, 0 BB, 2 H), and he started off August in style by whiffing two while getting another save vs. the Reds on the 2nd. Huston’s 5.3 K/BB ratio is a career high. Street’s 92 MPH fastball (+0.6 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH changeup (+0.23 runs/100) are faring well, but his sinister 85 MPH slider (+5.24 runs/100) has been death to batters.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected saves July 31st and August 3rd vs. the reeling Mets (no runs allowed). The sinker/slider righty notched another vs. Pittsburgh on the 5th, though the Bucs did manage to take him deep (Shane Spen…er Garrett Jones homered). Is Qualls morphing into a different type of reliever? His K rate is down, as is his walk rate. He’s putting more pitches in the zone, and opposing batters are connecting more often:

2007: 8.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 51.7 Zone%, 85.5 Z-Contact%
2008: 8.67 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 53.6 Zone%, 87.3 Z-Contact%
2009: 7.29 K/9, 0.99 BB/9, 54.6 Zone%, 89.9 Z-Contact%

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Back in familiar surroundings, Hoffman pitched a clean inning against the Padres in San Diego on August 2nd (a non-save op). Hell’s Bells picked up a save in his next appearance against the Dodgers the following night (though he did surrender a run), and then notched another on the 5th vs. L.A. Somehow, Hoffman has yet to be taken deep in 33 innings this season. Despite the microscopic ERA, Hoffman’s 2.7 K/BB ratio is actually his lowest mark since 1993 (a rookie season split between the Marlins and Padres).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod twirled a scoreless inning against Arizona on deadline day, then picked up a cheap 0.1 inning save vs. the D-Backs the following night. However, the Cardinals torched the first-year Met for 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk on August 4th. Rodriguez just hasn’t pitched all that well this season: his K/BB ratio is 1.85, and his XFIP is up yet again. The 27 year-old scarcely resembles the shut-down Angel of years past:

K-Rod’s XFIP by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.27

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano got a save vs. the Dodgers on August 1st and pitched a scoreless inning against the Padres on the 5th, but his week took a sour turn yesterday in another tilt with L.A. Rafael was roped for 3 H and 3 R (including an Andre Ethier HR), and he took the loss as the Dodgers came back to win 5-4. Still, it’s hard to complain about his larger body of work: 12.06 K/9, with a 1.43 WPA.

Not that Soriano has problems with batters of either hand, but the Ethier bomb does make you wonder why manager Bobby Cox has stopped using he and Gonzalez based on matchups. Ethier has a pronounced platoon split during the course of career (.304/.377/.521 vs. RHP, .260/.320/.394 vs. LHP).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson worked twice this past week, notching a save vs. Philly on August 1st, then retiring one batter against the Astros on the 5th. The 27 year-old righty might not be an elite option, but he has made some legitimate progress this season. Wilson’s K rate (9.63) remains very close to last year’s mark, but he has lowered his rate of free passes issued from 4.04 in ‘08 to 3.21 per nine in 2009. The mixture of K’s, grounders (50.4 GB%) and better control make Wilson a safe pick on a contending club.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde did collect two saves this week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he pitched well. Papa Grande gave up two runs in 3.2 innings, including a dinger to Matt Holliday. The 30 year-old has punched out 9.87 batters per nine innings during an injury-marred 2009 season. That’s still plenty good, but it is the 4th straight year in which his K rate has fallen. Valverde’s trademark splitter has still been nasty (+1.02 runs per 100 pitches thrown), but his mid-90’s gas (-0.64 runs/100) hasn’t been its usual dominant self (+1.07 runs/100 career). There’s an interesting trend going on with Jose fastball. He’s throwing it much less, and throwing it harder:

2006: used 84.4% of the time, 93.5 MPH
2007: used 77.8%, 93.4 MPH
2008: used 74.1%, 95.5 MPH
2009: used 65.0%, 95.4 MPH

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made just one appearance this week, chucking two scoreless innings against Colorado in an eventual extra-innings loss. Co-Co has a 1.70 ERA on the season, but his XFIP (4.01) tells a different story. The righty has posted his lowest full-season K rate (7.65) since 2000. A .238 BABIP and 4.9 HR/FB rate have hidden the overt signs of decline, but batters are making more contact and swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to confuse, with two more spotless innings to his ledger this week (one save, vs. Houston on July 31st). His 3.77 XFIP is over two runs higher than his actual ERA (1.70), as the crafty former starter has benefitted from a .242 BABIP and a microscopic 4.8 HR/FB rate. This has to end at some point, but Franklin and his half-dozen pitches sure are fun to watch.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The Mad Capper turned in a superb week. Capps collected a save versus the Nationals on July 31st, then tossed three more scoreless frames in two appearances against the Diamondbacks. In all, he punched out 8 batters in 4 innings, without walking anyone. While he’s still throwing a 93 MPH fastball about 70 percent of the time overall, Capps has increased the usage of his secondary pitches (an 84 MPH slider and a hard 87 MPH changeup). During that four-inning tear to begin August, the 25 year-old used his slider nearly 50 percent of the time. Capps’ K rate for the year (8.36) is well above his career mark (6.95).

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

The Fighting Irish alum threw two quiet innings this week, including a save vs. the Rockies yesterday. A positive development to be sure, but it’s just difficult to trust the guy as he battles a balky knee. His walk rate (5.4 per nine) remains stratospheric, and opposing hitters have made contact with 84.7% of pitches thrown within the zone (nearly 10 percent above his career mark).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Just when you thought it was safe to trust Gregg again, the bespectacled reliever goes out and coughs up 6 hits, 4 runs and three homers in his first two August appearances (1.1 innings vs. Florida). Gregg’s peripherals (9.24 K/9, 3.73 BB/9) aren’t all that bad, but a 15.2 HR/FB% (his career rate is 8.2%) has put a serious dent in the overall numbers. This is the sort of thing that can happen in the 60-80-some innings that a reliever tosses in any given season. Gregg is much the same guy he has always been (namely, a good middle reliever), but a few extra flyballs scrape over the fence and the season line looks crappy.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Fresh off a DL stint for an achy elbow, Lindstrom pitched two scoreless innings to begin the month. Uncharacteristically, he didn’t K or walk anyone in either appearance (Aug. 2 vs. the Cubs, Aug. 5th vs. the Nats). Matt’s velocity was down slightly (95.3 MPH), but that doesn’t seem like much of a concern. Of much greater importance is his placing his pitches better: Lindstrom’s walk rate sits at 5.81 per nine innings in 2009.

Mike MacDougal/Sean Burnett, Nationals

What a strange week, huh? MacDougal and the Nationals had three saves during the entire month of July, yet the transiently surging club has strung together five wins in a row (with four saves for Mac). Still, with a 0.6 K/BB ratio in 31 innings, MacDougal has been anything but a late-game stopper.

Check Back tomorrow for the A.L. Closer Report.