It’s been a long time since Justin Morneau was anything close to a sure fantasy option. 2010 drafters had to decide which Morneau was the real thing, the player who hit .311/.390/.575 with 21 HR in the first half of 2009 or the player who faded badly down the stretch, killing a viable MVP campaign with an .077/.178/.179 September. Those who bought into his potential in 2010 were richly rewarded with princely production — .358/.465/.648 with 11 HR — in exactly half a season of work. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that the 2012 regular season is officially underway (for two teams, anyway), let’s round up some first base news from around the league. Here are my preseason 1B tiers from last week, just in case you missed it.

Mike Carp | Mariners | Owned: 24% Yahoo! and 74.3% ESPN

You might have missed it while you were sleeping last night, but we have our first regular season injury of 2012. The Mariners placed Carp on the DL yesterday with a shoulder sprain, adding Carlos Peguero to the roster in his place. Carp qualified as a 1B this year but was a much better value in the OF, so losing him shouldn’t create any 1B problems for fantasy owners. If it does, you likely have bigger problems in the first place. Peguero, by the way, is not rosterable.

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Two weeks ago we rolled out or consensus first base rankings, and last week I picked them apart and wrote about some things I didn’t necessarily agree with. The tiers below are my personal rankings, dividing the players into groups based on their approximate fantasy value. These rankings will be updated every month throughout the season.

Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder

These five are the very best of the best, all first round fantasy options expected to produce huge numbers. Miggy’s fractured orbital bone could delay the start of his season, in which case I’d bump him behind Pujols. Either way, you’re going to get massive production.

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I was involved in a 15-team keeper league auction the other day and after staring at Adam Dunn in my queue for what seemed like and eternity, I finally made a move on him.  It wasn’t until very late in the draft and I had held back some extra cash but when I ended up shelling out $14 for him, I questioned whether or not I overpaid.  Did I not think that Dunn was worth that kind of money so late in an auction or was it simply just a temporary case of buyer’s remorse after strapping myself for cash with another few roster spots left to fill?  Then I remembered my rationale after taking him in the 13th round of the KFFL Baseball Analysis Draft & Experts League and Mike Axisa’s 10 Bold Predictions and mental order was restored.  Dunn is headed for a big rebound this year and if you can get him on the cheap (and yes, $14 for 40 HR certainly qualifies as cheap), then you make that move.

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Esteemed full-time employee Eno Sarris has been rolling out our consensus position rankings over the last week or so, with first base being published one week ago today. Three of our four experts consider Albert Pujols to be the fantasy’s best option at the position, which is certainly a very reasonable and safe choice. Pujols has been so great for so long that it’s hard to bet against him, but I happen to be in the minority.

Miguel Cabrera is the best fantasy first baseman (and overall player, really) for me. It’s easy to forget that he’s still just 28 years old and right in the prime years of his career. He’s hit fewer than 30 HR just once in his eight full seasons and posted an average lower than .320 just once in the last six seasons. Miggy is also insanely durable (150+ games all eight years) and piles up the RBI and runs scored. I like his chances of remaining super productive in 2012 more than I do Albert’s, who battled some injuries and had his first bout with mortality last year (meaning a .385 wOBA after ten straight years of .400+). I don’t think park effects matter much with elite guys like this, and I do like Cabrera’s surrounding cast more than I like Pujols. There’s nothing wrong with ranking Albert as the best fantasy first baseman, I just happen to disagree.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Our consensus ranks may have suffered a bit from positional shenanigans. Sure, you can rank Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana at first base, but why would you ever play them there? Is Billy Butler a first baseman in your league?

When we all ranked a guy, we agreed for the most part — well one of us really likes something about Michael Cuddyer that the rest of us don’t see. And Paul Goldschmidt inspires consternation wherever he goes, so it was no surprise that he wasn’t ranked the same by all of us. But Carlos Lee? Must be something about .270 and 18 homers at first base that tickles Podhorzer’s fancy. Then again, he liked James Loney more than the rest of us too.

Take a look and pick your poison.

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This could be the end of the line for Justin Morneau. Morneau, who suffered from a concussion during the 2010 season, was shut down early last season after experiencing recurring symptoms. When healthy, Morneau has been one of the top fantasy performers at first base. But he’s missed so many games recently, that he’s become one of the most questionable picks in fantasy leagues. Unless he can overcome his injury, Morneau may not be worth the risk this season.
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The Nationals spent a good portion of the offseason trying to woo Prince Fielder to the nation’s capitol even though they already had a pretty good first baseman in place. That first baseman is Mike Morse, not the $16M man Adam LaRoche. LaRoche missed all but 43 games of 2012 due to a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder, an injury that completely sabotaged him at the plate (.258 wOBA in 177 PA) during his first year in Washington.

The 32-year-old LaRoche is now close to nine months out from surgery and working his way back in Spring Training. He told Mark Zuckerman that swinging the bat is not a problem (though he has yet to face live pitching), but he still hasn’t cut it loose when throwing. Since Morse can play the outfield, the Nats will have no problem fitting both men in the lineup if they make it through camp healthy and deserving of regular playing time.

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Eric Hosmer is a trendy fantasy pick this spring, and for good reason. The Royals first baseman batted .293/.334/.465 during his age-21 season, providing decent power (19 homers) and uncommon speed (11 steals) for a guy at the low end of the defensive spectrum. Hosmer’s youth, contact ability, athleticism and promise of more pop from his 6-foot-4, 230 frame have caused him to shoot up the draft board, placing eighth among first basemen and just outside the top 50 overall in MockDraftCentral’s latest ADP Report.

Hosmer could bust out in 2012 — the fans are betting on it, projecting a .299/.359/.501 line, 25 homers and double-digit steals. But for Hosmer to progress from good young hitter to true fantasy stud, he’ll need to hone his strike-zone discipline. Specifically, he needs a cure for a serious case of hack-itis against the heat and sliders/cutters.

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We can forgive Bryan LaHair if he’s a little confused as to what his status is as the Cubs prepare for Spring Training.

The expectation was that the Cubs would end up with one of the big three first baseman in free agency, but Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Carlos Pena all found their way to the American League rather than to Wrigley Field, so that’s good news for LaHair. The Cubs then turned around and traded for Anthony Rizzo, a younger version of LaHair who clearly has the First Baseman of the Future look about him, so that’s bad. The Cubs gave LaHair some reps in the outfield last year, giving him a wider range of places to play instead of just first base, so that’s good. Unfortunately, the Cubs haven’t traded Alfonso Soriano yet and signed David DeJesus to fill Kosuke Fukudome’s old spot, so that’s bad. Read the rest of this entry »