In 2008, OF Josh Hamilton finally turned in the kind of season that scouts envisioned when Tampa Bay selected him with the 1st overall pick in the 1999 amateur draft.

Shipped from the Reds to the Rangers in a December 2007 challenge trade for RHP Edinson Volquez, Hamilton crushed to the tune of a .385 wOBA. The lefty clubbed 32 home runs, while posting a .226 ISO and a HR/FB rate of 19.2%.

Sure, the Ballpark in Arlington played a part. According to ESPN’s park factors, Arlington has boosted run scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral ballpark from 2007-2009, while increasing HR production by 14 percent. But Hamilton was no ball park creation. He posted 29.7 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ‘08. Even accounting for the hitter-happy tendencies of his home field, Hamilton was three wins above average with the bat.

Many fantasy players ponied up a primo pick on Hamilton entering 2009. Per Fantasy Gameday’s Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report compiled back in February, Hamilton’s ADP was ninth overall.

Unfortunately, Hamilton’s various aches and pains in ‘09 had owners keeling over in anguish as well. The 28 year-old dealt with a laundry list of injuries, most notably a partially torn abdominal muscle requiring surgery in June and a pinched nerve in his lower back that effectively made him a spectator in September.

Getting just 365 PA during the season, Hamilton limped to a .321 wOBA. His ISO plunged to .158. Hamilton hit more fly balls than usual (41.8 percent, compared to about 33 percent from 2007-2008), but those extra flys died in the outfield pasture. His HR/FB rate dipped to 9.2%. Josh was below-average with the stick, with -3.6 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.

Hamilton still slammed fastballs, hitting them for +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. But anything off-speed flummoxed him: -0.44 runs/100 versus sliders, -2.43 against curveballs and -3.19 versus changeups.

He was extremely aggressive during his banner 2008 campaign, swinging at 34.7% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (25% MLB average) while taking a cut at 80.6% of pitches within the zone (66% MLB average). But Hamilton was even less selective in 2009. He had a 36.1 O-Swing%, with an 85.7 Z-Swing%.

Hamilton swung at more pitches within the zone than any other batter with at least 350 PA (Pablo Sandoval was a distant second, at 82.9%). However, he made contact just 80 percent of the time that he offered at a pitch over the dish (88% MLB average).

His O-Swing% was 13th-highest among hitters with 350+ PA. With Hamilton anxious to get the lumber off his shoulder (he swung at the 9th-most pitches among all batters), he posted a 65.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). Josh got behind the pitcher 0-and-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch at the sixth-highest rate in the majors. His walk rate dipped from 9.3% to 6.7%.

It’s important to keep in mind that all of these numbers came in what amounts to slightly more than a half season’s worth of PA, while Hamilton was far less than 100 percent healthy. The lack of plate discipline is somewhat troubling. But if Josh can remain upright in 2010, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can bounce back.

Bill James 2010 projections are out, and Hamilton is tabbed for a .372 wOBA. While James’ projections tend to smile upon hitters more than most other systems, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more healthy Hamilton post a wOBA somewhere in the .360-.370 range.

Hamilton presents a dilemma for fantasy owners entering 2010. On one hand, he certainly won’t cost a premium draft pick, and a healthier Hamilton has the potential to yield a high return on investment. But on the other hand, should anyone really assume that he will be healthier? Hamilton has three major league seasons under his belt. He has missed big chunks of the year in two of those three seasons.

So, are you feeling lucky? Personally, I would expect Hamilton to hit in the .360-.370 wOBA range, while serving a DL stint or two that limits him to 400-some PA. What do you guys think?

After proving he can hit against American League pitching, Jason Bay is all set to get paid after a solid fantasy season.

Bay hit .267/.384/.537 with a career high 36 homers and 119 RBI. He also chipped in 100 runs and even provided owners with 13 steals in his first full season with Boston. Many of his fantasy owners may not have been happy with the drop in batting average, at the expense of five extra home runs. I don’t think they minded too much, but when you are counting on a guy to hit .280, you’d always like him to do so.

Because he’s turned in two good offensive seasons in a row, he will be seeking a nice payday before he steps back on the field in 2010. The Red Sox have been rumored to be willing to go as high as $15 million a year, but R.J. Anderson already analyzed why their history does not support that rumor. The Mets, Cardinals, Angels, Giants, Braves and possibly the Yankees will be in the market for a big time left fielder.

The Mets are going to make the strongest push towards Matt Holliday, as will the Cardinals and Bay’s former employers in Boston. The Giants may not be willing to spend the big bucks, but could make Bay feel wanted if they focus on him from the start. The Yankees aren’t likely to go big again this offseason, but Bay’s value could slip into the range where they almost have to get involved.

Where Bay ends up this offseason will be huge for his value. If he stays with a great team like the Red Sox who will surround him with talent, his RBI and run production should remain at a steady rate. If he decides to follow the money to a team that may be of a lesser quality (Giants, Mets), he may feel forced to do things all by his lonesome and his game could suffer because of it.

In Boston, I doubt any of his old mates will be complaining if he leaves. If he goes out of town, chances are Boston will fill his spot with another big bat. The Red Sox lineup always seems to produce, so their players have nothing to worry about. His new teammates will enjoy his presence in their lineup, and he will boost their runs and RBI.

Bay may not be the best overall player in the league, but he is a big bat for fantasy owners, especially in OBP leagues. No matter where he goes, he will hit home runs and drive in runs, but a return to Fenway would be best for his fantasy value.

The Chicago White Sox declined Jermaine Dye’s $12MM option for 2010, officially making him a free agent. Dye was expected to be a free agent all season, and the White Sox’s acquisition of Mark Teahen all but sealed the deal.

At 35, Dye is on his last leg as a major league ball player. He hit .250/.340/.453 with 27 home runs and 81 RBI in 2009. Dye has officially developed his old person skills, with his walk rate 2.9% above his career average and above 11% for the first time in his career. He can still hit homers, so he has some value to fantasy owners.

He may even be able to give you a better average than anyone expects next year. His BABIP was .269, while his xBABIP was .295. His line drive rate was the second lowest of his career (16.9%), but even so, his BABIP will come closer to his .300 career average in 2010.

Because Dye is an abysmal defender, his options will be limited in free agency, and he will have to lower his asking price for teams to be seriously interested. Because the outfield market has big bats ahead of him (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday), Dye will have to settle for a lesser deal with a team looking for a veteran outfielder or DH.

The Giants may settle for Dye if they can’t get Bay, and Dye could welcome a return to the Bay Area. The Rangers have expressed interest in Dye, but it’s unclear if Dye is willing to DH. Atlanta is looking for a right handed bat, and Dye came up from the Braves farm system before being dealt to the Royals in ‘97. If the Angels decide they don’t want to hang onto Vladimir Guerrero, then Dye could fill his role as the DH. He may not be able to play the field, but at least he can move better than Vlad can.

The best team for Dye from a fantasy perspective would probably be the Rangers. Their park is a home run hitters dream, and he would be surrounded by good talent, giving him plenty of runs and RBI opportunities. The Angels are the next best option, with the Giants and Braves falling behind, in that order.

Don’t expect too much from Dye in 2010, but value him higher than most owners will due to his BABIP. Don’t call him a sleeper, but he should be a decent value pick as a second or third outfielder in your next draft.

Thanks to the Hardball Times’ xBABIP calculator for xBABIP data

With human vacuum Alcides Escobar ready for everyday play and incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy turning in a disappointing 2009 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were determined to shop Hardy this offseason.

It didn’t take long for the Brew Crew to find a trade partner, as the Minnesota Twins acquired Hardy today in exchange for center fielder Carlos Gomez.

Because of a demotion to the minor leagues in August, Hardy will be under team control for the 2010 and 2011 seasons (he would have been eligible for free agency following 2010 without the unwelcomed Nashville vacation).

The 27 year-old is a slick fielder in his own right, but his lumber was MIA in 2009. Hardy posted a solid .338 wOBA in 2007, then followed that up with a .355 mark in 2008.

This past year, though? J.J. turned in a .292 wOBA. After compiling +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ‘07 and +13.7 in ‘08, Hardy sunk to -13.2 in 2009.

What happened to Hardy’s bat, and can we expect a rebound in 2010?

The first thing that jumps out about Hardy’s line is his .264 BABIP, well below his .306 mark in 2008 and his career .280 BABIP.

Hardy’s career BABIP is fairly low, likely because he had lofty infield/fly ball rates from 2005-2008 (pop ups are near automatic outs). And, Hardy did post a very low line drive rate in 2009 (13.9 percent).

But even so, J.J. was unlucky on balls put in play in 2009. He actually didn’t pop the ball up excessively (9.1 IF/FB%), taking away one possible cause of the low BABIP. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get a .306 XBABIP for Hardy, based on his HR, K, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls.

Even assuming all hits were singles, that would raise Hardy’s triple-slash from .229/.302/.357 to a less-wretched .271/.344/.399. His power was down in ‘09 (.128 ISO, .166 career average), but his adjusted line equates to a wOBA of roughly .330. That’s a little better than Hardy’s career .325 wOBA. Essentially, his 2009 performance wasn’t all that different from his overall level of play at the major league level.

Heading into 2010, owners should expect Hardy to be neither the offensive stud of 2008 nor the offensive dud of 2009. Hardy looks like a slightly above-average big league hitter. Considering that J.J. is a plus defender at a premium position, it looks as though the Twins got exceptional value here.

Going to Milwaukee is Gomez, who is under team control until 2013. In February of 2008, the Dominican Republic native was the principal prospect acquired in the Johan Santana blockbuster. Now, Gomez heads back to the N.L., presumably replacing pending free agent Mike Cameron.

Turning 24 in December, Gomez derives almost all of his value from his legs. The 6-4, 215 pound righty has yet to show much ability at the dish. His career wOBA in 1,100+ PA is .286. Gomez has walked just 5.1 percent of the time, while hacking at 35.1% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (his O-Swing% was 29.9 in 2009).

Gomez has a peculiar profile at the plate. He’s as speedy as they come (7.6 career Speed Score, compared to an MLB average around five). Yet, his career groundball rate is just 44.4%, near the MLB average. The former Mets prospect does just about nothing with the fly balls that he hits.

His major league HR/FB rate is 4.6%. Gomez has a career .373 slugging percentage on fly balls. For reference, the AL average was .603 in 2009. When he isn’t hitting harmless flies, Gomez is popping the ball up at an alarming rate. His career IF/FB% is 16.1%.

Given Gomez’s lack of pop and his issues with fastballs (career -1.33 runs per 100 pitches), Milwaukee’s new fly catcher has seen a surprisingly low proportion of heaters (52.6 percent). Of course, he hasn’t really lit it up against sliders (-0.26), curves (-0.37) or changeups (-2.17), either.

Gomez’s wheels are what keep him on the fantasy radar. He swiped 12 out of 15 bags in 2007, 33 in 44 attempts in 2008 and a less-impressive 14-for-21 in 2009. Gomez has a 73.8% SB success rate in the majors.

At the present moment, Gomez is one of those “more valuable in regular baseball than fantasy” guys. He covers a ton of ground in the field (career +14.2 UZR/150 in CF), but he is totally lost at the plate. Owners jonesing for steals will be interested, and it’s possible that Gomez will show something more offensively, given his relative youth. But as the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.

Earlier this decade, OF Jeremy Hermida was pegged for stardom. But following yesterday’s trade to the Boston Red Sox for LHP’s Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, Hermida may well have completed his descent from franchise building block to bench warmer.

Florida snagged the lefty hitter with the 11th overall selection in the 2002 amateur draft. Despite his youth, Hermida possessed exceptional polish for a high school bat. The Georgia prep product’s 2002 and 2003 seasons in the minors were modestly productive, as he displayed superb strike-zone control but little extra-base pop.

Hermida began to tap into his power in 2004, batting .297/.377/.441 in the pitcher-friendly High-A Florida State League. But it was his thunderous 2005 campaign that made him perhaps the most coveted position prospect in the minors. As a 21 year-old in the AA Southern League, Hermida hammered pitchers for a .293/.457/.518 triple slash. He drew a walk in a jaw-dropping 21.9% of his PA, while popping 18 homers and posting a .225 ISO.

Getting his first extended look in the majors in 2006, Hermida didn’t hit the ground running. Limited by a hip flexor injury, he compiled a modest .310 wOBA in 348 PA. Hermida rarely found the gaps or lifted one over the fence (.117 ISO), but his trademark plate discipline was present. He walked 9.7% of the time, offering at just 19% of pitches tossed outside the strike zone (25% MLB avg).

Hermida appeared to arrive in 2007. In 484 PA for the Fish, he raked to the tune of a .372 wOBA. Hermida’s BABIP was very high at .356, but he walked 9.9% of the time, with a 22.2 O-Swing%. And, he made major strides in the power department. Hermida slugged 18 round-trippers, with a .205 ISO.

Considering Hermida’s age and minor league track record, he appeared poised to bust out in 2008. Instead, Hermida’s once-pristine plate approach eroded.

Jeremy chased nearly 28% of pitches thrown out of the zone. Compounding matters, he took a cut at fewer pitches within the strike zone (59.6%, compared to about 64% the previous two seasons; the MLB avg is 65-66%). Swinging at more pitches in the dirt and taking more offerings over the plate-that’s not exactly what one would have expected from a guy who resembled a Brian Giles clone as a prospect. Hermida’s wOBA dipped to .321.

In 2009, Hermida did a better job of working the count. His O-Swing% fell back down to 23.9%, though his Z-Swing% remained low at 61.7%. The 25 year-old’s walk rate climbed to 11.5%. Hermida experienced a power outage, however:

Hermida’s ISO, by year

Since that high-water mark in 2007, Hermida’s ISO has plummeted: .157 in ‘08, and a .133 figure in ‘09. His HR/FB rate was 15.7% in 2007, 13% in 2008 and just 10.1% in 2009.

Hermida’s performance against left-handed pitching has taken a turn for the worse over the past few seasons:

Hermida’s wOBA vs. LHP, by year

Baseball-Reference keeps a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. 100 is average, above 100 is above-average for batters, and below 100 is below-average for hitters. Here are Hermida’s sOPS+ figures vs. LHP since 2007:

2007: 128
2008: 108
2009: 72

I would caution against reading too much into platoon splits, as how a batter performs overall is more informative than just how he does against LHP or RHP.

Hermida’s BABIP against lefties was .359 in ‘07, .293 in ‘08 and just .233 in ‘09. That sort of thing can happen when your sample size is about 120 PA per year. There’s not much to suggest that Hermida is good against lefties, but he probably won’t continue to look like Tony Pena Jr. against southpaws, either.

26 in January, Hermida has reached a career crossroads. Boston snagged the arbitration-eligible outfielder on the cheap, hoping that there’s still some vestige of that top prospect left.

From a fantasy standpoint, the swap does damage to whatever value Hermida had. It’s doubtful that he was draft-worthy in most leagues to begin with. But the Red Sox certainly do not figure to enter the 2010 season guaranteeing ample PA to a guy who has been just a smidge above replacement-level the past two seasons.

Vladimir Guerrero’s monster contract with the Angels has run out, and it’s time for him to hit the open market.

In 2009, Guerrero hit .295 with 15 dingers and 50 RBI in 100 games with the Angels. Vlad’s time was limited due to injury, spending 39 days on the DL with a pectoral strain and another 27 DL days with a calf strain. Vlad’s previously high OBP and OPS league value dropped drastically, as his OPS went below .800 for the first time in his career.

To make matters worse, Vlad only played 2 games in right field for the Angels, losing his OF eligibility in 2010. For a UTIL spot, you are going to need better production from Vlad if he is to warrant a starting spot in your lineup.

To judge whether or not Vlad will improve next year, we need to know if he’s healthy. Assuming he would be healthy in 2009, all the major projection services had him hitting over .300 with 20+ homers. At the lower end of the 2009 projections, Marcel thought he would hit .302/.369/.508 with 23 bombs. Goes to show you, that Vlad can still put up some numbers if he can stay on the field.

If Vlad moves on from the Angels and signs elsewhere this offseason, his teammates probably won’t mind. Kendry Morales would likely slide into the cleanup role, with Juan Rivera moving up from seventh to fifth in the batting order, allowing both of them to improve thier RBI opportunities next year.

For Vlad’s new team, his production will be based solely what kind of a lineup he’s in. Because he may no longer be a home run threat, fantasy owners can only hope for a good number of RBI chances in his new lineup. Vlad will need to stay in the AL, as he cannot withstand the pounding of playing in the field everyday (if at all). Some may think that leaving Angel Stadium could also hurt Vlad’s home runs, as the ballpark ranked second in home runs this year with a 1.22 factor. However, from 2005 – 2008, the stadium was considered bad for homeruns by park factors, and I’m inclined to go with the larger sample size.

Based on early signs, it looks like Guerrero will come back to the Angels for another year, as outside interest seems to be fading. However, keep an eye on Vladdy this offseason, and wait to decide if he is worth a shot in your draft next year.

This past July, the Atlanta Braves severed ties with Jeff Francoeur.

Formerly the golden child of the farm system, Francoeur appeared to establish himself as a franchise pillar in 2007. As a 23 year-old, Frenchy increased his walk rate (albeit modestly) and posted a .337 wOBA. His .340+ BABIP suggested he got some fortunate bounces, but few could have predicted his atrocious 2008 season.

Francoeur’s BABIP regressed severely, but he was an unmitigated disaster at the plate:

Francoeur went from a dark horse MVP candidate in the eyes of some to a Mississippi Brave during the course of the season, as he was demoted to the Southern League for a brief period of time. He did experience pretty awful luck on balls in play, as his expected BABIP (.327) was much higher than his actual BABIP (.277). If we adjust for that, his line improves to .289/.344/.409. Where’s the power, though?

Frenchy posted a stunning -22.7 Park Adjusted Batting Runs in 2008. No other batter in the majors did more damage to his club’s run-scoring chances.

2009 began no better for Francoeur. As a Brave, he batted .250/.282/.352 in 324 PA. But following his July trade to the New York Mets for OF Ryan Church, Francoeur posted a .311/.338/.498 line in 308 PA.

This gave rise to countless “change of scenery” narratives, suggesting all the erstwhile top prospect needed was a one-way ticket out of the Peach State. But did Francoeur really make any changes at the plate that portend to sustained success?

Here are Frenchy’s plate discipline stats with the Braves:

April: 27 O-Swing%, 80.2 Z-Swing%, 89.9 Z-Contact%, 67.1 F-Strike%
May: 42.9 O-Swing%, 79 Z-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact% 69.6 F-Strike%
June: 33.1 O-Swing%, 82.7 Z-Swing%, 89.5 Z-Contact%, 65.6 F-Strike%
July: 40.9 O-Swing%, 78.1 Z-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact% 68 F-Strike%

O-Swing= Outside-Swing Percentage (25% MLB avg)
Z-Swing= Swing pct. on pitches in the strike zone (65.9% MLB avg)
Z-Contact= Pct. of contact on pitches in the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg)
F-Strike= First-Pitch Strike Percentage (58.2% MLB avg)

..And here are his numbers with the Mets:

July: 33.1 O-Swing%, 86.8 Z-Swing%, 93.9 Z-Contact%, 61.8 F-Strike%
August: 37.8 O-Swing%, 79.9 Z-Swing%, 87.8 Z-Contact%, 61.7 F-Strike%
September/October: 37.2 O-Swing%, 83.5 Z-Swing%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 58.7 F-Strike%

Overall with Braves: 35.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Z-Swing%, 87.4 Z-Contact%, 67.6 F-Strike%
Overall with Mets: 36.5 O-Swing%, 82.9 Z-Swing%, 90.2 Z-Contact%, 60.5 F-Strike%

Francoeur put the ball in play on the first pitch or got behind in the count 0-and-1 less often, and he made more contact on pitches within the strike zone. But it’s hard to say that he made any progress whatsoever in terms of working the count. He still hacked at a sky-high number of pitches, both inside and outside of the zone.

Take a look at Francoeur’s BABIP by month:

April:.280
May: .273
June: .267
July: .282
Aug: .368
Sept/Oct: .348

Frenchy’s BABIP with the Braves was .281. With the Mets, it was .343.

According to this XBABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Frenchy’s BABIP with Atlanta (based on HR, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders) should have been around .310. As a Met, his batted ball profile suggested a BABIP between .295 and .300.

Francoeur was unlucky with the Braves, and got plenty of breaks with the Mets. His overall XBABIP for the season was .304, compared to an actual .311 mark. In other words, his overall .280/.309/.423 triple-slash is a pretty accurate reflection of his talents.

Frenchy did hit for more power as a Met, with a .187 ISO and 10 HR compared to a .102 ISO and 5 HR with the Braves. However, there are few signs that the soon-to-be 26 year-old made any sort of alteration in his strike-zone judgment. In his new digs, Francoeur still chased pitches wildly off the plate, walking in 3.7% of his PA (3.8% with the Braves).

Over the next few months, much ink will be spilled on how Francoeur got a new lease on his career and is poised to break out in 2010. Unfortunately, a closer look at his season suggests that he remains the same free-swinger who has been nearly 30 runs below average with the bat during his big league tenure. Approach Francoeur cautiously on draft day.

Splashy free agent signings can be alluring for major league clubs. Well-known sluggers are there for the taking, if the price is right. GM’s envision the player popping homers, taking curtain calls and making the pact look like a stroke of genius.

While there are bargains to be found on the free agent market, there are also potential landmines. By definition, the players have six years or more of major league service time, and may well be reaching the end of their peaks. The high-end players offer no discounts: teams are going to pay full-price for their talents.

Too often, GM’s act like impulsive shoppers toting high-limit credit cards. They want the player now. Instant gratification comes at the expense of inking a player past the point at which any real projection of his contributions can be made.

Case in point: Alfonso Soriano. A free-swinger with plenty of thunder in his bat, Soriano hit the free agent market after the 2006 season. He was coming off of his finest campaign in the majors, compiling 5.5 Wins Above Replacement. Soriano blasted the ball for a .377 wOBA, and his transition from second base to the outfield went swiftly.

The Cubs salivated at the prospect of adding an established star to the team’s roster. The North Siders came to terms with Alfonso (31 years old entering the ‘07 season), giving him a whopping eight-year, $136M deal.

Soriano’s tenure with the Cubs started off well, as he again compiled 5.5 WAR in 2007 (worth $22.4M). His bat remained strong, with a .380 wOBA. Soriano missed some time with a quadriceps injury, but his first year in Chicago was fruitful.

The righty bopper endured more injury problems in 2008. A calf strain shelved him in April, and then a freak injury broke his hand, keeping him out of commission for nearly two months. Soriano’s lumber was good as ever when he took the field, though, with a .374 wOBA. He posted 3.1 WAR, worth $13.8M on the free agent market.

2009, however, was a different story. A bum left knee plagued Soriano, eventually making him call it quits in early September to get arthroscopic surgery.

He took his customary hack-tastic approach to the dish, swinging at 37 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Soriano swung at 72.2% of pitches within the zone, well above the 65.9% MLB average.

Soriano made more contact than usual on those in-zone offerings, with a Z-Contact% of 87.2 (84.9% average for Alfonso since 2002). But the contact that he made was weaker. Alfonso hammered pitchers for ISO’s of .261 in 2007 and .252 in 2008. In ‘09, that figure dipped to .182. His home run/fly ball rate, 15.8% in ‘07 and 17.1% in ‘08, was a mundane 11.5% this past year.

Over the years, pitchers have been reluctant to feed Soriano fastballs. And for good reason: he has clubbed heaters for a run value of +1.94 per 100 pitches since 2002. By contrast, Soriano has a Pedro Cerrano-like -0.86 run value versus sliders and -0.42 against curveballs. He continued to hit fastballs well in 2009, if not at the prodigious rate of years past (+0.83 runs/100 pitches).

However, opposing hurlers gave him fewer fastballs than ever before. Soriano was challenged with a fastball just 46 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate among batters with 500+ PA (Ryan Howard was first).

Soriano saw the second-highest percentage of sliders among hitters, getting a hard breaking ball nearly a quarter of the time. He flailed to the tune of -1.06 runs/100 pitches. Of course, that looks downright impressive next to his -2.68 mark against curveballs. Alfonso generally holds his own against changeups (+0.17 runs/100 since ‘02), but he got tangled up when pitchers pulled the string in 2009 (-1.71 runs/100).

With an aching knee, Soriano stole just nine bases in 11 attempts. His Speed Score has fallen precipitously since he inked that gargantuan contract: 6.3 in 2007, 4.8 in 2008 and 4.4 in 2009 (the MLB average is around five). Another sign of Soriano’s slowing legs: his UZR/150 in left field has gone from +18.4 in ‘07, +2.5 in ‘08 and -11.6 in ‘09.

In all, Soriano posted a career-worst .314 wOBA, with a .241/.303/.423 triple-slash. The shoddy hitting, coupled with his stationary D, resulted in -0.8 WAR (Soriano made $16M for that sub-replacement-level play).

He might have been a little unlucky on balls put in play. Soriano’s BABIP was .280, compared to his .309 career average. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Alfonso’s rate of HR’s, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, grounders and pop ups suggest that his BABIP should have been about .305. That would improve his line to .266/.328/.448 (that’s assuming all hits were singles). Better, but still a far cry from his established level of play.

The Cubs made an all-too-common mistake in signing Soriano until his age-38 season. The organization put down bug bucks on Alfonso’s performance level at the time, paying him as if his skill set would remain unchanged well past the point at which it was reasonable to assume such a thing.

Now, the club is burdened with an $18M-a-year player for the next five seasons, a player nearing his mid 30’s with a troublesome pattern of leg maladies. Perhaps an off-season of rest and rehabilitation will do wonders for Soriano’s aching body. But fantasy players shouldn’t bet a high-round pick on such a scenario. Soriano could bounce back somewhat in 2010, but age and injuries may have robbed him of his once-elite power/speed combo.

Matt Holliday’s value was a big question mark coming into the year, as fantasy (and real) owners did not know what to expect from Holliday in the American League.

Many owners freaked out early on when Holliday started the year with a .240 average and only one home run in the first month of the season. Then, for some unknown reason, no one paid attention when he got back to his old self in May. He ended his A’s career after 93 games with a .286/.378/.454 line to go along with 11 homers and 54 RBI. After going back to the NL, Holliday exploded in a Cardinals lineup that also featured Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick. Holliday hit 13 home runs and drove in 55 in only 63 games, while posting a line of .353/.419/.604.

Holliday’s swing was a topic of conversation early on, mainly due to his slow start. His numbers tend to back this up, with his line drive rate dropping off from the low 20%’s to the mid teens. He also became more selective at the plate, swinging at less pitches and making contact more often. However, most of the patience at the plate came in Oakland, where they likely lectured him on the value of walking. When he got to St. Louis, he starting hacking again, with his swing% coming in above his career average.

Because of his resurgence as a Cardinal, his value is back where it was before the season began. He will be asking for Mark Teixeira money, and a team or two will likely come close to that in an effort to acquire an impact bat. The big boys in Boston, and both New York teams are going to be heavily involved in this process, with the Mets and Red Sox as the most likely landing points. The Cardinals aren’t just going to let him walk without making an effort, but in the end they may not have the leverage and money to pull it off. If the asking price gets too outrageous, teams will turn their attention to Jason Bay, but Holliday is certainly the first option.

If Holliday ends up in Boston, don’t be afraid of how he will fare in the AL. Fenway is a much better place for him to play than Oakland was, and the talent they can put around him will greatly increase his chances for success in the AL East.

If Holliday leaves St. Louis, Albert Pujols isn’t likely to be too happy, but his numbers probably won’t reflect it. His numbers will still be insane, and he is still a top player going into next year, even without Holliday. Holliday leaving could mean free agent Rick Ankiel could return as the everyday left fielder, but the Cardinals are more likely to look outside for help.

Few young sluggers entered the 2009 season with more fanfare than Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce. The sweet-swinging lefty terrorized minor league pitchers, batting .308/.366/.551 on the farm and reaching the big leagues by age 21.

While understandably rough around the edges, Bruce displayed enormous potential in 2008. He popped 21 homers in 413 AB, with a .199 ISO. While most players his age were trying to crack AA, The Boss was nearly a league-average hitter at the highest level (.328 wOBA).

A quick glance at Bruce’s 2009 numbers leaves fantasy owners feeling a little underwhelmed. After all, Jay batted .223, with his wOBA basically unchanged (.329). He rolled his wrist attempting to make a diving catch in July, suffering a fracture that sidelined him until September.

In all, 2009 would appear to be a lost year for the highly-touted right fielder. However, Bruce actually made a good deal of progress at the plate. Here are several reasons to believe in The Boss heading into 2010:

Age and minor league track record

Bruce, who won’t turn 23 until April, has always been young relative to the levels at which he has played. While he wasn’t the most patient batter in the minors (he walked in 8.4% of his PA), Bruce bashed to the tune of a .243 ISO.

He showed no problems with pitchers of either hand, drubbing lefties for a .290/.352/.522 triple-slash and roping righties for a .318/.376/.574 line. Bruce hasn’t hit southpaws in the major leagues, but 230-some AB by a 21-22 year-old can’t exactly be considered conclusive.

Improved plate discipline

Bruce walked in 7.4% of his PA in 2008, but he improved that mark to 9.9% in 2009. His Outside-Swing Percentage dropped from 30.4% in ‘08 to 26% this past season (right around the MLB average). That’s a happy development, considering that opposing pitchers gave Jay fewer offerings over the plate. They tossed him a pitch within the strike zone just 45.7% of the time in 2009 (48.3% in 2008; the MLB average is 49-50%). Bruce saw four pitches per PA in ‘09, up from 3.8 P/PA in 2008.

Improved contact rate

The Boss but the bat on the ball 81.3% of the time on pitches within the strike zone in 2008, but bumped that number up to 86.6% in 2009 (88% MLB average). That helped Bruce lower his strikeout rate from 26.6% in ‘08 to 21.7% in ‘09.

Increased power production

Bruce’s ISO climbed from the aforementioned .199 in 2008 to .246 this past year. He clubbed 22 big flies in 345 AB (15.7 AB/HR), topping 2008’s 19.7 AB/HR pace.

Poor luck

Cincy’s franchise player had a .373 BABIP in the minor leagues, and a .298 major league mark in 2008. In 2009, his BABIP dropped off a cliff (.222). That was the lowest BABIP among batters taking 350+ trips to the plate.

Bruce’s line drive rate was extremely low at 13%, but I’m inclined to believe some of that was due to official scorer’s bias. Line drives don’t “exist” the way that some other events on the diamond do. Someone has to make a subjective judgment, saying, “I think that ball was a liner” or “I think that was a fly ball.”

Bruce had a liner rate exceeding 21% in 2008. This year, he had the second-lowest LD% among hitters with 350+PA. Given the authority with which he hit the ball overall, the low liner rate doesn’t appear to be much of a concern. Expect that BABIP to climb significantly in 2010.

Jay Bruce has all the ingredients to be a superstar. In a “disappointing” year, he showed top-shelf power, improved strike-zone discipline and better contact ability. Fantasy owners aren’t going to get another chance to acquire The Boss with anything less than a premium draft pick. If at all possible, nab Bruce now, before he becomes a perennial first-rounder.