But Darvish’s signing has also been met with some skepticism. Some starting pitchers coming from Japan to the U.S. have found success (Colby Lewis after initially bombing in the majors, Hiroki Kuroda), but many others have disappointed.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Kaz Ishii, Hideki Irabu and Hideo Nomo all got lots of cash and press, but Dice-K is the only pitcher among that group to post a career adjusted ERA better than the league average in Major League Baseball (and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who would say he has lived up to Boston’s $103 million investment). Critics say that for whatever reason — cultural adjustments, four days’ rest between starts instead of six, pitching backwards in a more fastball-heavy league, exhaustive workloads at a young age that eventually take a toll — Japanese pitchers haven’t lived up to the hype. What makes Darvish any different?

With that in mind, I want to take a closer look at Darvish’s body of work in Japan compared to other starting pitchers who have come stateside. I found each pitcher’s ERA, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 over their last three seasons prior to arriving in the majors and compared them to the league average for those seasons. This is crucial because offensive levels in Japan have changed drastically over the years, and they plummeted in 2011 due to the introduction of a smaller, smoother baseball (the average ERA was 2.95, a full run lower than in 2010). I then put pitchers’ ERA, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 on a scale where 100 is average, over 100 means the pitcher was better than average in that category and under 100 means he was below-average. A pitcher’s most recent work is more instructive of what he’ll do in the future, so finally I weighed the last season prior to coming to the majors more heavily (50 percent) than the second (30 percent) and third (20 percent). These numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but they’ll give us a quick-and-dirty comparison of Darvish to other starters.

So, how does Darvish stack up with other Japanese starters who have made the jump over the past two decades? Going by adjusted ERA, Yu is in a class all by himself:

That’s a huge gap. Darvish’s 215 ERA+ easily trumps Matsuzaka’s (170 ERA+), and none of the other starters on the list had an ERA that was even 50 percent above the league average. How did Yu lap the competition? Let’s take a closer look at his component stats and how they rank compared to the other Japanese starters:

Missing Bats

By strikeouts per nine innings, Darvish ranks fourth. But this measure seriously underestimates Darvish’s ability to fool batters compared to the three guys ahead of him. Why? Because, as you’ll see in a minute, Darvish did a far better job of limiting walks than Ishii, Nomo and Irabu. Pitchers with poor control face more hitters per inning and thus have more chances to strike out hitters each frame. Ideally, I would have used strikeout percentage for all of these pitchers (Ks out of total batters faced), but that sort of data isn’t available on Baseball-Referece before 2007. Darvish’s weighted strikeout percentage was actually 58 percent better than the league average from 2009-2011 (Lewis’ was 45 percent above average). Considering Darvish’s control was also solid, you’d have to say that he was the best at missing bats.

Limiting Walks

See? Those high K/9 totals for Ishii, Irabu and Nomo came in part through innings extended by bushels of base on balls. Lewis was Maddux-esque in limiting walks. Yu comes in at the middle of the pack, behind crafty vets Kawakami and Kuroda and in the same area as Matsuzaka. Dice-K, of course, has gone on to drive pitching coaches, managers and fans bats$!t crazy by nibbling and walking 4.35 batters per nine innings in the majors, the 11th-highest rate among qualified starters since 2007.

We often hear of how Japanese baseball is much more breaking ball and off-speed heavy than baseball in the states. Pitchers, some with 6-7 offerings, must pare down their repertoire in the majors and rely more on the fastball to get ahead in the count. One theory for Matsuzaka’s huge walk total is that he has never learned to trust his fastball, going to his breaking and off-speed stuff a maddening amount in even and hitters’ counts. Darvish also throws a gaggle of different pitches. Take a look at his pitch selection in 2011, from Patrick Newman’s NPB Tracker website:

Darvish’s 2011 pitch mix

There is one potentially big difference between Matsuzaka and Darvish that might make Yu less prone to pitching backwards in the states: Darvish brings the heat. Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan noted that Darvish’s fastball has picked up speed in recent seasons, and we see that on Darvish’s NPB Tracker page. He sat 90-92 in his early twenties, but he was up to around 95 mph with his fastball for most of the 2011 season. Here’s what ESPN analyst Keith Law had to say about Darvish’s fastball in his top 50 Free Agents preview:

Darvish generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that’s been reported up to 97 this year

.
Scouting reports on Matsuzaka had him sitting 92-95 in Japan, but he has been toward the lower end of that spectrum in the majors (just under 92 mph). That fastball hasn’t been effective, either, with a run value of -0.3 per 100 thrown.

It’s hard to say exactly how Darvish’s fastball will translate — will he keep the 95 mph gas, or will he too lose a couple ticks while getting two fewer days’ rest in the big leagues? We won’t know for a while, but Darvish is starting from a higher baseline than Matsuzaka velocity-wise. Maybe that extra zip and instruction from Ryan and pitching coach Mike Maddux will make Darvish less bashful than Matsuzaka has been about pounding the zone with his fastball. That, in turn, would lead to fewer free passes.

Keeping the ball in the park

This is where Darvish has truly shined. He has served up just five dingers in each of the past two years, and Patrick Newman tells me that one of them in 2011 was a “running home run” — an inside-the-park job. Park factors could explain part of Darvish’s dominance in this category. Newman says that the Sapporo Dome, home of the Ham Fighters, has high outfield walls (around 19 feet tall), lots of foul territory and the following dimensions: 328 feet down the lines, 381 feet in the power alleys and 400 feet to center field. Oliver creator Cartwright estimates that the Sapporo Dome suppresses homers by about eight percent compared to a neutral Japanese park, close to the 94 HR park factor that Matsuzaka faced at the Seibu Dome (Lewis had a tougher go of it with Hiroshima’s new park in 2009: Mazda Stadium has a 126 HR park factor).

Still, Darvish scarcely gave up any shots on the road either, and he was so far above everyone else that park factors wouldn’t fully explain his low HR totals even if the Sapporo Dome played like Petco Far East. That stinginess in surrendering homers will serve him well in Arlington, given that Rangers Ballpark increases round-trippers by 19 percent for left-handed hitters and 14 percent for right-handers.

Conclusion

Whether you’re going by scouting reports or stats, Yu Darvish stands out as the best Japanese starter to try his hand at retiring major league hitters. With top-notch strikeout rates, decent control and precious few homers served up, Darvish’s adjusted ERA was leaps and bounds better than that of other Japanese imports. That doesn’t guarantee him success, as he’ll have to adjust to a different pitching schedule, a new ball and a more fastball-centric league. It’s OK to be skeptical. But claiming Darvish is the next Matsuzaka, Igawa, Irabu or Nomo ignores the fact that he has a much better track record than those guys did upon coming to the show.

Noesi’s prospects of piling up important innings changed last week, however, as he was shipped to Seattle as part of the staggering Michael Pineda/Jesus Montero challenge trade. Noesi, 25 later this month, could also eventually be pushed out of the rotation picture with the M’s as higher-upside arms like Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker reach the majors. But for now, he has a good chance of winning a spot behind King Felix, Jason Vargas and Japanese import Hishashi Iwakuma. Noesi has garnered a reputation as a quality strike-thrower and will benefit from moving to Safeco Field, but he’ll have to prove he can miss bats with his four-pitch mix to merit consideration in most fantasy leagues.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2004, Noesi was waylaid by Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. The 6-foot-3, 200 pound righty quickly climbed the system’s ranks after that, though, using pinpoint control and command of a low-90s fastball and a hard changeup to make hitters in the low minors look silly. But even while Noesi was rocking a near 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio at High-A Tampa, there were concerns that his so-so slider and curveball would lead to fewer punch outs in the high minors.

As it turns out, those worries were pretty well warranted. Noesi still limited walks as he approached the bigs, but the lack of biting breaking ball took a bite out of his strikeout rate:

Looking at it another way, Noesi’s K rate was about 32 percent better than the Florida State league average in 2009 and 2010. In the Double-A Eastern League, it was seven percent above average. Once he reached the Triple-A International League, Noesi’s whiff rate was 14 percent below average (albeit in a smaller sample). That’s a marked decline that doesn’t bode well for a fly ball-slanted hurler.

Noesi did do a better job of registering Ks as a rookie reliever/spot-starter in 2011, striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings in 56.1 frames while still showing decent control (2.86 unintentional walks per nine). If you’re looking for signs of encouragement on the breaking ball front, both his slider and curveball had better whiff rates than the league average:

Source: TexasLeaguers.com

That was almost entirely in relief, however, and it’s par the course for pitchers to miss more bats out of the bullpen. It remains to be seen whether Noesi’s stuff can slip by major league hitters multiple times through a lineup. If we use Tom Tango’s “Rule of 17,” which shows in part that pitchers’ K rates are on average 17 percent higher as a reliever than as a starter, we would expect Noesi to have about 6.1 K/9 in the rotation. That’s a dead ringer for the 6.2 K/9 projection offered by the Oliver forecasting system over at The Hardball Times.

Is that good enough to make Noesi an appealing fantasy option? It obviously depends upon how deep your league is, but Noesi’s mediocre K rate should be supplemented by few walks (a 2.4 BB/9 projection from Oliver), and Safeco (95 home run park factor for lefty hitters, and 82 for righties) is a much better venue for a flyballing pitcher than Yankee Stadium (143 HR park factor for lefty hitters, 115 for right-handers), so homers shouldn’t be a huge problem. An ERA around the league average (4.21 this past year for AL starters) seems about right.

A year from now, Noesi could again find himself on the periphery of the rotation as more highly-regarded prospects vie for starts. But he at least has an opportunity to prove he belongs in Seattle, and he could be a passable AL-only option who doesn’t cause WHIP-related anguish. That’s a better set of circumstances than he faced in the Bronx.

How a Japanese pitcher could push back the No. 2 pick’s ETA, why F-Mart landed in the right place and whether a former first-rounder has any hope in a new org.

When teams make moves, trades and signings in the offseason, the impact is felt by everyone — including the prospects who now have new roles or different standings in the organization. That’s the focus here, as we try to determine whether a young player’s fantasy value for next season took a hit or got a bump.

1) Danny Hultzen, Mariners
There’s been speculation this offseason that Hultzen, the No. 2 overall pick in last June’s draft, could actually break camp as a member of the Mariners rotation. Indications seemed to be be that the southpaw would at least get a shot to blow the team away with a strong spring, which would be an exciting possibility for fantasy owners, especially keeper leaguers.

Not to rain on that parade (get it? Seattle? rain?), but I think the acquisition of Japanese hurler Hisashi Iwakuma* means fantasy owners awaiting Hultzen’s arrival should probably find their slickers.
*Here’s a take on Iwakuma and his fantasy value from earlier in the offseason.

Seattle’s five-man starts off with Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda and Jason Vargas, and now Iwakuma is in the mix. Those four are locks. That leaves just one spot for Hultzen, who’ll have to compete with the less-than-idea-but-still-useable Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush.

With a good spring, Hultzen could beat out those last two for the final spot, but the M’s also don’t have much reason to rush one of their top young arms to the bigs while they’re not going to be contending.

2012 ETA: Tricky to speculate because the range is Opening Day to September call-up, if Hultzen debuts next year at all. I think the smartest scenario for the org calls for a June/July promotion, to give the lefty a chance to get into a rhythm as a pro — and to help the franchise slow his service clock.
2012 IMPACT: Hultzen would be a must-add in all AL-onlies as soon as he’s called up, and keeper owners should be all over a 22-year-old who will pitch in a great park. He’s got the moxie and stuff to help mixed leaguers, too, but more as a spot starter.

2) Fernando Martinez, Astros
Though no longer eligible to be a prospect based on the number at-bats accumulated during fits and starts over three different seasons, Martinez was the Mets’ top prospect for about 52 straight years. Then we found out the org that once gave the Dominican $1.6 mill (really, it was former GM Omar Minaya), decided he was no longer worthy of, you know, playing baseball for them in any capacity.

As my colleague Mr. Cwik pointed out recently, F-Mart’s biggest problem is that he’s, well, injury-prone just doesn’t seem strong enough to cover it, does it? Injury-riddled! (An arthritic right knee will do that.) That, and the now-23-year-old Martinez was starting to run out of time, especially with all the lost development.

If there’s any good news for him, though, it’s that his new home might actually allow for everybody’s favorite: the change-of-scenery story. The Astros have one of the worst outfields in baseball, with J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer and Brian Bogusevic penciled in as the starters. (Yes, ick.) So it makes some sense that they used their top waiver claim priority to snag Martinez in a near-no-cost move.

For Houston, it’s no-lose because if Martinez does his usual — struggles at Triple-A (.265/.326/.465 slash stats over three seasons) and gets hurt — there’s not much invested. But! If he can manage to, uh, not die, well, there’s plenty of opportunity for him.

2012 ETA: This will ultimately come down to Martinez’s spring performance, but again an Opening Day roster spot wouldn’t be a total surprise. Then again, neither would an injury during the first warmups in February.
2012 IMPACT: Only owners in the deepest of deep NL-only formats should even care about Martinez for now, but he could eventually become a useable OF5 just based on having a pretty clear path to playing time.

3) Andrew Brackman, Reds
While it’s tempting to think that Brackman, who the Yankees released earlier this offseason after making him their top pick back in 2007, could become part of the shiny new Cincinnati bullpen, that just doesn’t seem to be a reality.

The Reds get kudos for adding closer Ryan Madson and lefty setup man Sean Marshall to what should be a dynamite pen (especially if Aroldis Chapman stays there), and Brackman isn’t unlike Martinez: a somewhat worthwhile shot in the dark on a former top prospect who fell out of favor with his original team. Except, Brackman has many more obstacles in his way and less value because of his role as a reliever.

The best that could realistically be expected out of Brackman, now 26, is for the 6’10″ right-hander to perform well enough at Triple-A that he earns a spot as a mop-up or long man. Even then, though, we’re talking about a guy who’s lost development time to Tommy John surgery and has only really had one non-horrible campaign (3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9) in 2010 before falling on his face again last year at Triple-A (6.00, 1.64, 7.0, 7.0).

2012 ETA: The guess here is Brackman will finagle his way into a few call-ups, if only out of the Reds’ curiosity.
2012 IMPACT: Really, none, given that he won’t have a shot at any sort of valuable role in the remade bullpen. Even NL-only owners don’t have to bother.

4) Minor Moves
Rangers prospects Mike Olt and Tommy Mendonca have been invited to the Major League camp in spring and will be tried out at 1B/LF and C, respectively.

A regular third baseman, the 23-year-old Olt is blocked by Adrian Beltre despite being one of the org’s top prospects after hitting .267/.387/.504 with 14 HRs in just 240 ABs at High-A. Mendonca, also a 23-year-old 3B, is a little lesser known, but he was the team’s second-rounder in 2009 and mashed 25 HRs and 87 RBIs at Double-A — albeit with 160 whiffs. The Rangers think his power lefty bat could translate well behind the dish, if he can handle the job.

There’s very little chance either of these two makes any real impact in 2012, particularly for the two time-defending AL champ Rangers. It’s not out of the question that one or both could be used as trade bait during the season, which would probably help their causes as far as 2013 impact. Of the two, Olt is the one to watch in keeper leagues.

A second take on Brad Peacock, a first look at a couple of Ryans and another reason rookie Addison Reed could be the White Sox’s new closer.

When teams make moves, trades and signings in the offseason, the impact is felt by everyone — including the prospects who now have new roles or different standings in the organization. That’s the focus here, as we try to determine whether a young player’s fantasy value for next season took a hit or got a bump.

1) Brad Peacock, A’s
I already hit on Peacock this offseason in a previous Prospect Chatter, but that was before he was traded to the Oakland A’s in the Gio Gonzalez deal. While the conclusion of the previous analysis left Peacock’s 2012 fantasy value a bit in question, I see this move as a decided plus for the 23-year-old righty.

The biggest issue facing Peacock as a member of the Washington Nationals is that he was a victim of numbers. The rotation was basically full, and the chances were good that Peacock, who debuted last September after tearing up Double- and Triple-A, wouldn’t return to the bigs until mid-season. In Oakland, though, the five-man is much more wide open: The A’s have traded away Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill this winter, while the rest of the potential starters are a Who’s Who of injured players, including Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden.

In short, Peacock should enter spring training with a clear opportunity to break camp with the team as one of the final two starters. At worst, if he fails to impress in his introduction as an Athletic, he’ll be one of the first in-season call-ups. That makes him more viable in AL-only leagues than he had been in NL play, even if the move to the more offensive-driven league could be a bit of an obstacle. In Peacock’s corner, though, is that the Coliseum is one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball, particularly for home runs.

Peacock should be able to net a positive return for owners that invest in him in 12-team AL play, and his long-term keeperness also looks solid in his new digs, especially because he’s in line to be a starting pitcher going forward.

2012 ETA: Opening Day rotation seems about right, as long as Peacock doesn’t fall on his face in the spring.
2012 IMPACT: His value is aided by being in a good park and remaining a starter — he might’ve been a reliever in Washington — so while I wouldn’t invest too heavily until he proves he can contribute as more than a spot-starter in AL formats, Peacock could be a nice little sleeper.

2) Addison Reed, White Sox
Earlier in the offseason, my kind colleague, Mr. Barr, thoroughly tackled the whole who-closes-for-the-Chicago-White-Sox-now-that-Sergio-Santos-is-gone? issue. Then with the first trade of 2012, GM Kenny Williams sent Jason Frasor — one of the guys mentioned in that post — to the Blue Jays.

While I don’t think Frasor was the favorite to enter 2012 as the Sox’s closer, it’s clear that one more obstacle has been eliminated from what can only be seen as Reed’s eventual ascension to the job. The big, hard-throwing righty has rocketed through Chicago’s system after going in 2010′s third round. In fact, he pitched at — count ‘em — five levels last year, including the majors (7.1 IPs, 3 ER, 12:1 K:BB), and compiled some of the gaudiest minor-league digits you’ll see from a reliever: 1.26 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 111:14 K:BB over 78.1 IPs.

I’d be surprised if the Sox simply hand the ninth inning to Reed out of the gate, especially because that’s a lot of pressure to put on a 23-year-old kid when Matt Thornton and Jesse Crain should be able to handle things initially. But pitching coach Don Cooper has already indicated that the closer’s job will be up for grabs this spring. Plus, there have been trade rumors surrounding Thornton all offseason, and Crain also has value as a chip, too, so it might not be a bad idea to allow those two to score some saves and improve their stocks for potential in-season deals. That would make Reed the no-brainer choice going forward.

2012 ETA: Reed will come north with the White Sox, and he’ll be a key member of the bullpen, to boot.
2012 IMPACT: Even if he’s in the setup role, Reed’s holds and insane peripherals (read: Ks galore) make him worth drafting in AL-only leagues that require a four- or five-man bullpen (or as a handcuff for Thornton/Crain owners). And keeper leaguers everywhere should jump on him as a potential Craig Kimbrel-type in 2013 — if not sooner.

3) Ryan Flaherty, Orioles
The Rule 5 Draft hasn’t exactly been a breeding ground for impact fantasy players over the past few years. While we’ve seen some stud players emerge from from this secondary draft in the past decade (i.e., Josh Hamilton, Joakim Soria, Johan Santana), the last handful of iterations have lacked any relevant fantasy performer. It’s likely that the 2011 Rule 5, held in early December, will go the same route, but if there’s one player who I like to make a mark, it’s Flaherty.

After being taken out of the Cubs organization by Baltimore, the 25-year-old finds himself in a pretty good situation. While he’s not the greatest defender, Flaherty is capable of handling second and third base and also can fill in at the outfield corners. As luck would have it, those spots are unsettled for the O’s. (Nick Markakis is locked into right field, but he recently had abdominal surgery that puts his Opening Day status in question.)

There’s no reason Flaherty can’t play himself into a role where he steals some time in left from Nolan Reimold, shares duties with Chris Davis at third and enjoys the fruits of Brian Roberts‘ injury-proneness at second. If he shows he can stick with the team in a utility role during spring training, his versatility and lefty bat — he sports a career .278/.346/.462 slash line and hit 19 HRs and 88 RBIs across Double- and Triple-A in 2011 — could help him accrue 350-450 PAs.

2012 ETA: Being a Rule 5er will actually help Flaherty’s chances of making the club out of spring — otherwise, the O’s have to offer him back to the Cubs — so if he holds up into late March, an Opening Day role could be in the cards.
2012 IMPACT: Flaherty is strictly a reserve option for deep AL-onlies, since he’s not guaranteed to see many ABs even if he does stick, but there’s plenty of opportunity, and his multi-eligibility won’t hurt.

4) Ryan Kalish, Red Sox
Kalish, 23, isn’t technically a prospect anymore, but it feels like he is because he was a forgotten man in 2011 after missing most of the year with neck and shoulder injuries suffered early on. For those of you in AL-only leagues hoping to snag a snazzy sleeper, especially now that presumptive Red Sox right fielder Josh Reddick has been traded to Oakland, there’s some bad news on Kalish: He’s likely out until May or June after undergoing November surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, which came only two months after he had a procedure on his neck.

With this news, Kalish basically goes from an intriguing option as a guy who performed rather well in his first taste of the big leagues in 2010 — .252 BA, 4 HRs, 10 SBs in just 179 Pas — to a non-factor in almost all leagues. While the Red Sox still lack a legit right fielder for 2012, one would certainly think that the org would have taken care of this hole between now and the time Kalish is ready to return to the majors — which could be several weeks after he starts playing in the minors around mid-season.

2012 ETA: Given the extent and location of his injuries, Kalish would be lucky to make it back to Boston before September, considering he’ll need to first get healthy enough to play, then prove himself at Triple-A again.
2012 IMPACT: Negligible in re-draft leagues, but he could be a sneaky late-season add in keeper leagues with an eye to 2013.

Three years ago, work in my previous incarnation as an educational publisher had me in Japan regularly. The Yakult Swallows played in Tokyo and tickets were much easier to get than Yomiuri Giants tickets, so I was a default fan of the Swallows, as bad as that sounds, and their center fielder Norichika Aoki.

After a few games, I’d gotten over some of the differences. Sure, my draft beer came from a huge backpack on a tiny girl. And yeah, I was noshing on some edamame instead of peanuts. Cheerleaders? Singalongs? Fine. Maybe I hadn’t completely gotten over the choreographed umbrella dance — that was a sight to see — but I was getting more used to it.

No matter what, I was still enjoying the star center fielder for Tokyo’s second team. Aoki wasn’t stealing as many bases as he had in his 26-year-old season the year before (31). But that was because he’d been moved to the three-hole for both the Japanese World Baseball Classic team as well as his home team. Both teams needed his developing power to drive runs — unfortunately, a little drop in power in 2009 had his batting average closer to .300 than .350 for the first time in his career.

That season was pretty much the worst of his career to that point, and yet it was hard not to like him. He still had a .303/.400/.444 line that was sweet for a strong defensive center fielder. As it did every year, his slightly strange crouched stance with the long step was fun to watch. Even with the drop in power, he packed some punch. He played with energy and confidence, and the fans had two prepared songs for him.

Aoki’s been itching to come to America ever since his sophomore season in 2006, when he first dreamed about it in public. Unfortunately for him, the Swallows waited until one year before he would hit free agency to finally post him. In a doubly unfortunate feat of timing, Japan just switched to a smaller ball last year and offensive numbers took a dive across the board — Aoki slugged .360, a far cry from that 2009 season that had been his career-worst. He didn’t hit .300 for the first time in his career, and he failed to reach double digits in steals for the first time as well.

So instead of a large posting and a starting spot waiting for him, Aoki will have to fight his way onto the Brewers should he sign with them, and the Swallows will only receive $2.5 million for his rights. He’s a lefty center fielder, and Nyjer Morgan played that role to a .304/.357/.421 tune last year (with good defense). Because backup Carlos Gomez is right-handed and owns a plus-plus glove of his own, the ‘defensive backup outfielder’ position is taken as well.

There is a crack of light for Aoki, created by Ryan Braun‘s positive test. The team needs a left fielder for the first 50 games. Whether he’d beat out Caleb Gindl or Logan Schafer for that playing time will work itself out later — but Aoki does have a better glove than Gindl and probably more of a bat than Schafer. And Aoki probably does own more upside than the (non-Prince Fielder) flotsam and jetsam remaining in free agency. His lower posting fee and .292/.358/.360 2011 numbers both conspire to make him cheaper, so the Brewers could afford him. The team has apparently already performed the physical on him so that they can sign him quickly as the deadline approaches, too.

In a way, this is probably the best way for Aoki to come over. Had he come in his hey-day, we may have had unreasonable expectations for the Japanese star. We might have called for Ichiro-like batting averages, with more power and a little less speed, had he come over even just last year, after his .358/.435/.509 2010 season in which he hit 14 home runs and stole 19 bases.

Now we know what to expect — excellent defense and plate discipline, and strong hit tool. The power probably won’t be there, and he may not steal a ton of bases, but he is fast. 22.5% of his hits in 2011 were infield hits — which could be seen as a positive or a negative. But speed, glove and patience will be in tow.

With Gomez and Morgan best used in tandem, and Braun out for 50 games, he has that window to show a passable batting average and OBP and a great glove. Once that window is closed, who knows what the team will end up doing. That risk alone makes Aoki a deep-league pickup at best, and we can thank his negatives for waking us from our dream and saving us from taking such a longer-shot pick in mixed leagues. But in ottoneu, where deep benches reward the ability to platoon, and $1 lottery tickets can turn into valuable (if merely passable) fantasy fifth outfielders, he’s surely worth a look.

In this edition…

What the re-signing of Coco Crisp means for a former top prospect, why getting Jason Marquis is — gasp — a good move for the Twins and how the other side of the Carlos Quentin deal could play out.

1) Michael Taylor, A’s
With news of Coco Crisp reportedly re-signing with the A’s on a two-year, $14 million deal, Taylor’s 2012 just got a bit murkier. While the 26-year-old was in line for an Opening Day starting job after the A’s let outfielders Josh Willingham and David DeJesus walk away earlier in the offseason, the re-upping of Crisp means that Taylor will have to prove himself — perhaps in Triple-A again — rather than “earn” a starting gig by default.

Once a highly-regarded prospect, the former Philadelphia Phillies draft pick has battled injuries since joining Oakland from the Toronto Blue Jays in the deal for Brett Wallace. His power production saw the biggest hit as a result, most notably in 2010 when his slugging dropped to .392 down from .549 in 2009. But Taylor recovered enough to regain part of his prospecty goodness last year, hitting .272/.360/.456 at Triple-A. For a big guy (6’5″, 255), he also runs fairly well, swiping between 14 and 21 bases the past four seasons.

Considering his age and the A’s total lack of offense in recent years, it’s time for Taylor to get a legitimate opportunity to play in the big leagues. In other words, more than the 11-game audition he got at the end of last year. But with Crisp once again manning center for Oakland and newly-acquired Josh Reddick also entering the picture in right, that leaves only left field as a possibility for Taylor. And even there, he’ll have to compete with yet another recently-added outfielder in Collin Cowgill.

From a tools perspective, Taylor has the skillset to reach double digits in homers and steals, and he’s a better prospect than Cowgill, who profiles more as a fourth outfielder. But for now, it seems the best-case scenario has Taylor splitting time in the corners — perhaps his righty bat can platoon with the lefty-hitting Reddick? — and the worst case could mean Taylor spends part of a fourth straight season in Triple-A if he doesn’t have a strong spring. Either way, his future playing time has gotten squeezed in recent weeks, as the A’s have brought in three outfielders. Whether that’s a sign that the organization doesn’t have much faith in him is debatable, but one thing that isn’t is that Taylor has now become a dicey draft pick for owners in AL-only leagues next March.

2012 ETA: Taylor is ready to be in Oakland from the start of next season, and barring another move to further block his path, he should get that opportunity, either as a starting outfielder or at least a backup/bench bat.
2012 IMPACT: If he gets enough PT, Taylor could be a nice sleeper as an OF4 or 5 in deep AL leagues, even playing half his games at the pitcher-friendly Coliseum. But if not, he’s merely bench fodder.

2) Liam Hendriks, Twins
Hendriks is your prototypical Twins pitching prospect — throws strikes in the low-90s but struggles with being too contact-prone. The 22-year-old Australian was pushed to the bigs, perhaps a little too soon, when he debuted last September. He was called up after just 49.1 IPs above Double-A and posted a solid 16:6 K:BB in his first 23.1 MLB innings, but Hendriks also gave up 16 ERs and 29 hits, including 3 HRs.

With plenty of question marks in the Twins rotation heading into the offseason — can Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker stay healthy? Are Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing really starters? Is Carl Pavano actually the No. 1? — there seemed to be a chance that Hendriks could break camp with the team if he looked okay in spring. But the addition of Jason Marquis should put an end to that possibility.

While I don’t like Marquis much*, he should at least give the Twins some innings (and a horrendous ERA, WHIP and K rate in his first go-round on an AL team), which will allow the org to break in Hendriks a little slower. Not that Hendriks is going to be a great major league starter either, but he did throw 162.2 innings in 2011, which was easily a career-high for the formerly injury-prone righty. Easing off the peddle won’t hurt.

*A brief aside: Despite being a fellow native Long Islander with the same first name, Marquis is one of my least favorite pitchers in baseball because he’s never been all that good — his career WAR is just 12.2 over 12 seasons — and he’s pretty consistently been overrated — dude was an All-Star in 2009! — for being, what, an innings-eater? A hits-allower? No, I’ve got it: a runs-surrenderer!

When you check Hendriks’ career stats as a minor leaguer and see the spiffy 2.78 ERA, sexy 1.09 WHIP and smooth 1.4 BB/9, don’t be too upset that he’s not getting a shot to be the team’s No. 5 starter from Day One. Rather, it’s better for AL-only owners that the known quantity (read: Marquis) handles the job for a few months. That way, no one will get fooled into drafting him — unless you want to lose your league — and Hendriks can spend a little more time developing at Triple-A.

2012 ETA: Another half-season (or more) at Rochester would do Hendriks some good, so unless injuries once again ravage the Twins rotation — or Marquis is really that bad — expect to see him up after the All-Star break.
2012 IMPACT: There’s a good chance Hendriks’ stuff won’t translate well to the bigs right away, so until he proves he’s capable of being a spot starter, it’s probably best to leave him as a Watch Lister in AL leagues.

3) Simon Castro, White Sox
Familiar with the acronym TINSTAAPP? Well Castro might wind up proving that There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Once one of the top young players in the San Diego Padres’ system — if not all of baseball — the 23-year-old Dominican had a brutal 2011.

After looking very much the part of a No. 2 or 3 starter following his impressive 2009 (3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.1 K/9) and 2010 (3.28, 1.18, 7.3) campaigns, Castro started the season in Triple-A and proceeded to get tattooed: 29 earned runs, 37 hits and 18 walks in 25.2 IPs. Even a demotion back to San Antonio didn’t help much (4.33, 1.24, 7.4). And with the Padres’ acquisitions of young arms like Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland over the past year coinciding with Castro’s freefall, it’s easy to see why he became expendable in the Carlos Quentin trade.

There’s some good and some bad here. First it’s important to point out that Castro still has the makings of a mid-rotation starter, thanks mainly to his size (6’5″, 210) and stuff (mid-90s fastball, plus slider), and he could be a guy who just needs a change of scenery to get back on track. Of course, that scenery change also means that once he reaches the majors, he’ll be pitching in homer-haven U.S. Cellular and not pitcher’s-best-friend Petco. There’s also a more than fair chance that Castro becomes a bullpen arm, where his heater can hold up better and his lack of a third pitch won’t be as detrimental.

It will be interesting to see how the White Sox handle Castro. I’d imagine they’ll start him off in the rotation at Triple-A to see how he fares. If he adapts, renowned pitching coach Don Cooper might be able to turn him into a useful starter; if he falters, Chicago can convert him to relief full-time to recoup some value. Either way, GM Kenny Williams already hinted that Castro — along with Pedro Hernandez, a relief prospect acquired in the same trade — could make his debut at some point in 2012.

2012 ETA: If Castro shows he can be a starter, he’ll still need most of the year in the minors to prove it, and if he has to fall back on becoming a reliever, the transition alone will cost him some time, so expect a late-summer debut at the earliest.
2012 IMPACT: Castro isn’t likely to make any waves in fantasy next year as a starter, but if he does convert to the pen, he could earn a late-season audition for the 2013 setup job. Regardless, he’s no longer a premier option in keeper leagues.

“It’s just: is he the best candidate out there?” Johnson said. “Is he going to make our club stronger? I’d like another left-handed bat in the lineup. Our right fielder is probably going to hit seventh in the lineup and I’d like to have a more balanced lineup. So, I’m open for him competing for a spot.”

“I think this guy’s pretty mature. I don’t look at him age-wise like you probably should. But I think he’s definitely going to make the spring very interesting… I said (last) spring, you guys were asking me, ‘When do you think Harper is going to get there?’ I said ‘I think he’s going to have some quality at-bats in the big leagues when he’s 19.’ He’s 19.”

Harper breaking camp with Washington is far from certain. It would start his arbitration and free agent clock, setting up a situation where he could be a Super Two and then a free agent in his mid-twenties. The Nationals would also have to be comfortable with Jayson Werth in center field, or go acquire a CF and keep Werth in a corner. But, barring injury, it’s almost guaranteed that Harper reaches the majors as a teenager at some point in 2012.

What kind of performance could we reasonably expect from the eyeblack-wearing, Sports Illustrated-posing hitting prodigy? The Hardball Times’ Oliver projection system shows that Harper’s 2011 line in the minors translated to a .776 OPS in the big leagues. For 2012, Oliver forecasts a .793 major league OPS. The MLB average OPS was .720 last year, so it’s clear that Harper projects as a quality MLB batter at an age when most prospects are in low A Ball.

It is exceptionally rare for a player to see significant playing time in majors as a teenager, much less hold his own. If Harper were to match or out-OPS the league average, he would join a highly exclusive list of teenage batters who have managed to do so. Since 1901, just 26 teenagers have received 300+ plate appearances in the majors. Of those 26, only 10 posted an adjusted OPS of 100 or better:

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

That’s a rather impressive list, no? Three Hall of Famers in Mel Ott, Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle, and another future first-ballot Hall of Famer in Ken Griffey Jr. Sherry Magee, Cesar Cedeno and Edgar Renteria had quality careers, too, while Tony Conigliaro‘s was cut tragically short. Let’s take a closer look at the company Harper could soon keep to get an idea of how these teenage prodigies perform in subsequent years.

Mel Ott
The lefty-swinging, power hitting outfielder quickly established himself as one of the game’s pre-eminent sluggers, ranking third in the majors behind Chuck Klein and Babe Ruth with 42 home runs as a 20-year-old. He improved his OPS+ to 165 that year, and he followed that up with 25 homers and a 150 OPS+ as a 21-year-old. Ott remained a force at the plate through age 36 and retired with 511 HR and a 155 OPS+. That’s tied for 18th best all-time among hitters with 5,000+ PA, with Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Joe DiMaggio.

Tony Conigliaro
A local boy standing 6-foot-3 and sporting The Good Face, Tony C might have received Harper-esque hype if he had played in today’s media-saturated era. Conigliaro led the American League with 32 homers as a 20-year-old, posting a 133 OPS+, and the outfielder then had a 122 OPS+ and 28 HR at age 21. We’ll never know what he was capable of doing in his prime years: A Jack Hamilton fastball shattered his left eye, and his career, the next season. If there’s a lesson to be learned here, it’s that even sure things are subject to the caprices of the baseball gods.

Ty Cobb
Despite, erm, “makeup issues,” The Georgia Peach dominated in the early 20th century. Tyrus led the league in OPS+ nine straight seasons after his age-19 year, including a 167 OPS+ at age 20 and a 169 OPS+ as a 21-year-old. Harper’s game isn’t similar to the speedy Cobb’s, but he’s another point in favor of prodigious teenage hitting being a sign of greatness. Cobb’s 168 OPS+ places ninth all-time.

Sherry Magee
Magee also had some run-ins that would have headlined ESPN if it existed in the days of William Howard Taft and Woodrow Wilson — he punched out an umpire, demanded a trade after being passed over for a player/manager role with the Phillies and got in trouble for playing basketball during the off-season. But on the field, the outfielder/first baseman possessed decent pop for his day and had a 134 OPS+ at age 20 and a 135 OPS+ at age 21. Magee remained effective through age 33 and retired with a 136 OPS+.

Johnny Lush
I don’t think we can learn much about Harper through Lush, a two-way player who shelved his bat to become a middling lefty pitcher for Philly and St. Louis. Harper has a Howitzer of a right arm, but a conversion to the mound could be filed in the “not bloody likely” column.

Mickey Mantle
The Commerce Comet became an elite hitter at age 20, putting up a 161 OPS+ as a 20-year-old and a 143 OPS+ at age 20. He then became an all-time great by increasing his homer totals from the twenties to the 30s-40s and using his speed to swipe bases at a high percentage clip. Harper has some sneaky speed (26 steals, 7 CS), though he’s also 6-3, 225 pounds and might have been taking advantage of inexperienced pitchers not holding runners tight. Though injuries cut into his playing time in his 30s, Mantle finished with 536 HR and the sixth best OPS+ (172) of all-time

Cesar Cedeno
A power-speed dynamo who received some unfortunate Willie Mays comps, Cedeno didn’t live up to that (who can?) but the outfielder had a fairly productive career. Cedeno struggled as a 20-year-old (96 OPS+), but came back to post a 162 OPS+ at age 21 and retired at 35 with a 123 OPS+.

Ken Griffey Jr.
The Kid followed up his Rookie of the Year age-19 season with a 135 OPS+ at 20 and a 155 OPS+ at 21. He had low-twenties HR totals his first few years in the majors, but then morphed into one of the game’s great power hitters with seven 40+ homer seasons from age 23 to 30 (he broke his wrist in 1995 or it might have been eight in a row). While any discussion of Junior inevitably includes a sigh and an “if only he could have stayed healthy,” he ranks fifth all-time in homers (630) and his 135 OPS+, partially dragged down by holding on too long in his late 30s, is 75th all-time.

Edgar Renteria
While he’s struggling to get a job this winter, Renteria has enjoyed a long, productive career. But there aren’t many parallels to Harper here — Renteria was a shortstop who had value through contact hitting and a decent glove at a premium position.

Ed Kranepool
A 6-foot-3 first baseman/outfielder, Kranepool was never a hulking power hitter. He hovered around average at age 20 (95 OPS+) and 21 (100 OPS+) yet continued to receive a good deal of playing time into his early 30s. “Steady Eddie” retired with a 97 OPS+ in nearly 6,000 PAs. James Loney has a poster of Kranepool hanging in his locker.

If Harper meets his Oliver projection and the run environment remains similar to the last couple of seasons, his OPS+ would rank close to that of Griffey. As the above list shows, posting an above-average OPS+ as a teenager is usually a sign that a hitter is headed for the top of the league leader boards and possibly Cooperstown. There are exceptions, but it’s hard to foresee Harper getting drilled in a freak accident or deciding he wants to pitch. If a batter can stay above water as a teenager (and few doubt that Harper can), he’s likely headed for stardom in short order.

Why the Cubs’ acquisition of David DeJesus is a good thing, whether Jonathan Papelbon killed the fantasy value of a Phillies’ relief prospect and how owners are going to wind up hating Chien-Ming Wang.

1) Brett Jackson, Cubs OF
Jackson is one of the more high-end prospects on the cusp of the major leagues. Playing most of last season at 22, Jackson slashed .274/.379/.490 with 20 HRs and 21 SBs while splitting time fairly evenly between Double- and Triple-A. Ranked as Baseball America’s No. 38 prospect entering 2011, the 2009 first-rounder is not without flaws (24% career K), but he also continued to show he knows how to work the count (14% BB), and his all-around skill set — he’s considered average to slightly above-average across the board — started some whispers that the Cubs were going to call him up in September to get his feet wet.

Alas, they did not, and so now the question becomes: When in 2012 will Jackson make his debut? Entering the offseason, there was a good possibility that he could have been on the Opening Day roster, given the organization’s lack of outfield depth. But now that David DeJesus was brought in to play right field, the more likely scenario has Jackson getting another 250-or-so at-bats at Triple-A before forcing the Cubs’ hand to bring him up. Jackson will be the team’s centerfielder of the future, but without DeJesus, it would have been much easier for the team to shift incumbent CF Marlon Byrd to right, opening a spot for Jackson. Still, there’s not much in Jackson’s way, as Chicago has already jettisoned Tyler Colvin and Byrd is a likely trade candidate entering the final year of his contract. DeJesus himself isn’t exactly the kind of player who will stand in a top prospect’s path, but his presence should ultimately be good for Jackson, who could use a bit more developmental time in the minors, before he’s brought up to play everyday for good.

2012 ETA: Late May into early June seems like the perfect time.
2012 IMPACT: A must-add in NL leagues for a boost in HRs and SBs, but the BA might suffer as Jackson adapts to big league pitching.

2) Phillippe Aumont
A converted starter acquired from Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade, Aumont was the No. 11 overall pick in 2007. He’s a big, strong righty (listed: 6’7″, 255) with a hard, heavy fastball that sits in the mid-90s. Upon obtaining him, the Phils wanted to see what he could do as a starter, but after less-than-stellar results, they let him pitch out of the pen exclusively in 2011, and the Canadian-born Aumont responded with his best pro season. The 22-year-old posted a 2.68 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 — his best ever — while reaching Triple-A. In short, he looked like a future big league setup man at least, with a good shot to become a closer.

Then Philadelphia gave Jonathan Papelbon a four-year, $50 million deal that probably cuts out any chance Aumont had of earning saves on a regular basis in the near future. That doesn’t entirely wipe out his 2012 fantasy value, the possibility of Aumont becoming an in-season closer no longer exists — and same goes for his future in that role. Still, with few legitimate right-handed relievers in Philly — outside of Papelbon and perhaps Jose Contreras, if he can stay healthy — there’s a good chance that Aumont could work his way into the late-inning picture. Whether or not Aumont and fellow hard-throwing righty relief prospect Justin De Fratus (2.99 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 51 games at Double- and Triple-A) make the Phillies’ Opening Day roster probably depends on their spring performances, but both will pitch in the bigs next year — quite a bit, in all likelihood — just not in the ninth inning.

2012 ETA: April.
2012 IMPACT: No longer an option for saves, Aumont should still become a nice staff filler as a high-K reliever with some holds in NL leagues.

3) Brad Peacock
As I’ve written before, perhaps no prospect’s performance in 2011 was more meaningful to his long-term projection than Peacock’s. Prior to last year, the 23-year-old righty was considered a fringe back-end starter who would likely wind up in the bullpen. But after making a few minor mechanical changes, Peacock picked up a few ticks on his fastball and took off. He won 15 games to go with a 2.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 between Double- and Triple-A. For his efforts, he earned a pair of starts with Washington and pitched well.

Even though he’s only started nine games at Triple-A, Peacock would probably hold his own in the bigs from Day 1 next year, especially as the Nationals’ fifth starter, if used correctly (i.e., extra rest, avoiding tough matchups). In fact, even accounting for Peacock’s ups and downs, he’d very possibly pitch better than Chien-Ming Wang, who the team brought back on a one-year deal. That move indicates Peacock may begin 2012 in Syracuse rather than Washington, as the rotation currently shapes up with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan as the top three, and Wang as the No. 4, leaving but one spot for Peacock to battle against fellow prospect Tom Milone — a finesse lefty who sported a 3.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 at Triple-A before making five mostly-solid starts for the Nats — and Ross Detwiler. Of course, Washington could still make good on its attempts to land a veteran free agent (Edwin Jackson?). While Peacock has the most upside of those three, that could actually work against him, as the team could choose to give him more time to develop while making use of Milone and Detwiler first. Peacock will start for the Nats at some point next year, but his fantasy value could take a hit if he gets squeezed out until mid-year.

2012 ETA: Depending on the health and success of the other Nationals pitchers, this could be anywhere from April to July.
2012 IMPACT: A spot-starting option in most NL-only leagues who could improve as the season progresses.

Baseball’s Hot Stove season gets all sorts of coverage. Among the general questions that can be applied to just about any scenario are: Which big name is rumored to be signing here? What trade chip would be a perfect match there? And does Buster Olney ever actually sleep?

While the transactions of note generally involve big leaguers signing with or being traded to new teams, one angle that often gets overshadowed is how those moves effect prospects. Sometimes, an inking or a deal by the parent club can be good news for minor leaguers, but many times, that’s not the case. What looked only yesterday to be a clear path to playing time for a prospect ready to contribute, instead has suddenly become a circuitous detour along a bumpy road with indecipherable signage, more than a few potholes and the ultimate destination — the majors — nowhere in sight.

With that in mind, buckle your seat belts as we take a look at a pair of young players whose 2012 stocks have been impacted head-on by some recent moves.

Matt Dominguez, Marlins 3B
Entering 2011, Dominguez was the org’s No. 1 prospect and in the Top 100 overall (No. 81), according to Baseball America, primarily because he was expected to be nearly big-league ready and a great defensive third baseman who could hit a bit in the majors. A candidate to make the team out of camp, he was ultimately sent to Triple-A. After his season got off to a late start because he suffered a fractured elbow after being hit by a pitch, he finished with a slash line of .258/.312/.431 and 12 HRs and 55 RBIs in 87 games at New Orleans — respectable production, but nothing to get overly excited about. Still, he made his debut in September (11-for-45 in 17 games) and was in position to be the 2012 Opening Day starter for the Fish at the hot corner.

Then Miami went and gave Jose Reyes $106 mill over six years. Obviously, Reyes becomes the team’s shortstop as it moves into its new stadium, and that means erstwhile SS Hanley Ramirez shuffles over one spot to man third base. So where, exactly, does that leave Dominguez? To put it bluntly, things just got a whole lot more obstacle-y for the 22-year-old. While it’s possible the Marlins could keep Dominguez with the big league squad as a bench bat who sees a start a week at third, that really wouldn’t be getting much value out of him, especially since he’s already an elite defender at third — something Hanley Ramirez most likely won’t be.

Considering that the left side of the Marlins’ infield is set for the foreseeable future, the best scenario for both team and player is to see what kind of value Dominguez has on the trade market. There doesn’t need to be any rush to trade him; in fact, if he plays well at Triple-A to start the season, his value would only get a bump. But I would think between now and the July deadline, some team will come calling about a Gold Glove caliber third baseman who has the stick to hit .250-plus with 18-22 HRs in the long-term (think: Joe Crede). As for 2012? It’s a shame that a solid prospect (now No. 4 in Miami, per BA) who had plenty of opportunity and a chance to be better than, say, Brent Morel was in his rookie season last year just got blocked. Dominguez would have been a use-able corner option in 12-team NL-only leagues, and he would have ranked fairly high among my upcoming list of 2012 Impact Rookies, simply because of that now-defunct opportunity. After this, though, he’ll drop quite a bit, and his value in anything other than a keeper league is just about shot.

Hank Conger, Angels C
Man, Conger can’t catch a break. (Get it? I’ll wait.) First, the 23-year-old backstop was forced to take a backseat to the likes of Jeff Mathis for a year, then the Angels decide to trade for another catcher, former Rockie Chris Iannetta, when it seemed that Conger would finally be getting his shot. Conger isn’t technically a prospect anymore after compiling 206 ABs the past two seasons, but he was No. 4 in the Angels system at the start of 2011 and a former Top 100er, according to BA, so I’m going to do him some justice here.

Although Conger has shown he can hit with a composite .298/.361/.466 line in the minors, his glove has always been the question, which makes him a poor fit for a Mike Scioscia-managed team. Still, before Iannetta came aboard, it seemed likely that Conger would have a chance to put his switch-hitting to use enough to get at least double the 177 ABs he managed in 2011, because, really, Mathis’ time was up. Over 400 or so plate appearances, Conger would have made for a fine second catcher in mixed leagues, with the ability to reach double-digits in homers and perhaps show some real upside in keeper formats.

But with Iannetta now in the picture — oddly, the two have similar profiles as offense-first catchers — the best Conger can hope for is probably a platoon situation. Iannetta isn’t inept versus righties (.744 career OPS), but he’s much better against southpaws (.911), so perhaps Conger will get some run when Iannetta struggles through one or two of his massive slumps. All in all, Conger still should have value as a No. 2 catcher, but the focus shifts from mixed leagues to AL-only now, as his chance at topping last year’s production (.638 OPS, 6 HRs and 19 RBIs over 59 games) just took a big hit.

***

Next time: Brett Jackson, Phillippe Aumont and Brad Peacock.

Having already listed the team’s Top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and pointed out how the move to the AL in 2013 will impact NL-only keeper owners immediately, let’s check into the org’s prospects who could make their debuts in 2012 — and maybe even make an impact — and those who are the best bets for future value once the franchise is in the American League.

1) 2012 Debuts?

Speaking of promising, the impact for 2012 won’t be. ETA-wise, of the Top 10 list unveiled last week at Baseball America, maybe three are candidates to make their debuts at some point in 2012 — Jarred Cosart, Paul Clemens and Brett Oberholtzer — but again, we’re looking at mid- to late-season promotions in all three cases, so there won’t be much fantasy impact. Let’s break them down.

Incidentally, all three are pitchers who were acquired in the two big trades the Astros made last July, when they sent Hunter Pence to the Philadelphia Phillies (Cosart) and Michael Bourn to the Atlanta Braves (Clemens, Oberholtzer).

Of these three, Cosart, 21, is the top arm, but he’s also the furthest away, having made just seven starts at Double-A (all after coming to Houston). His season was a bit up-and-down, as he finished with a 4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and a 6.3 K/9 rate across Hi-A and Double-A. Overall, though, it was more good than bad — the stats look worse because he was knocked around in a handful of outings, especially after being promoted — and the big thing is that he stayed healthy enough to make 26 starts after totaling just 19 in his first two pro seasons. He’ll begin 2012 in Double-A again, where he’ll need to prove he can get a few more whiffs with his mid-90s heat, if he is to reach his potential as a No. 2 starter. It would take a ridiculous half-season performance by Cosart for the Astros to even consider him for a call-up before September 2012, but the org did push Jordan Lyles, its previous top pitching prospect — albeit a much more polished arm — to the majors this past season.

As for Clemens and Oberholtzer, the former is slightly closer to the majors. A right-hander who will be 24 by the time next season starts, Clemens held his own (3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.8 K/9) while pitching all but one outing at Double-A in 2011, with the other coming in Triple-A after the trade. After Clemens was jockeyed back and forth as a starter and reliever in his first three seasons, the Braves and Astros let him pitch exclusively out of the rotation last year. I would expect Clemens to fill that same role at Triple-A Oklahoma City to start 2012, thus giving him a chance to maximize his value to his new franchise. Depending on how he fares there early on, I could see him getting a shot at a handful of starts with the Astros, probably in the second half. But I wouldn’t count on any real fantasy value. Down the line, Clemens could be a back-of-the-rotation type, if he doesn’t wind up in the bullpen.

Oberholtzer, on the other hand, is a 22-year-old southpaw. He’s not too far behind Clemens in his career, having pitched the entirety of 2011 at Double-A. He showed his low-90s heater and solid changeup can get the job done when he’s on, posting a 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.0 K/9. If the Astros choose to take it slow with Oberholtzer — a smart move given that he’s still young — they’ll probably send him back to Double-A and give him the chance to pitch his way to Oklahoma City soon enough. A lot would have to go right for Oberholtzer — or wrong for the Astros big league pitchers — if he is going make his debut before September 2012. For an organization that is badly in need of arms, Oberholtzer is another rotation filler, with the upside to be a No. 3 if everything breaks right.

Moving outside of the org’s very top prospects and still focusing on 2012, here are a few youngins’ who could debut at some point next year, in rough order of fantasy impact…

Juan Abreu, RP: The 26-year-old Dominican was another part of the Bourn deal. He’s getting old to be considered a prospect, but his live arm will play as a reliever in mold of Juan Cruz or Fautino De Los Santos. After notching 12 Ks in first 6.2 IPs in majors in 2011, he’s in position to break camp with the team next spring. Plenty of whiffs (10.8/9 career) and walks (5.4 BB/9) should follow. A bullpen filler with some upside for deep NL-only play.

J.B. Shuck, OF: The 2008 sixth-rounder is 24, and at this point, he is what he is: No power and not much speed but a knack for putting bat on ball (.302 BA) and getting on base (190:217 K:BB in his four MiLB seasons). If he’s in the Astros’ outfield mix to start 2012, he could matter in 12-team NL leagues as an OF reserve.

Henry Villar, RP: Villar actually made his MLB debut with 6 IPs in 2010, but then failed to pitch in the majors last season. The 24-year-old Dominican is too hittable (8.6 H/9), and he’ll need his K rate to return to what it was at Double-A (7.8 K/9) last year rather than what it looked like at Triple-A (3.5) in 2011. Fantasy relevance? Practically zilch.

Dallas Keuchel, SP: A 2009 draftee, the 23-year-old lefty pitched well at Double-A (3.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) in 2011 but was overmatched upon a promotion to Oklahoma City. He sports a meager 6.1 K/9 in his career and has been hit harder as he’s climbed the ladder. Maybe a candidate for a few spot starts. Emphasis on “maybe.”

2) …And Beyond

Panning the scope out a bit, there’s not much in the way of prospects who are both exciting and have shown a lot in the minors so far. There are plenty of young, raw, toolsy types who are just as likely to bust up as they are to break out in 2012 — think: Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Ariel Ovando, Telvin Nash, Delino DeShields — so it’s not really worth spending too much time looking at these next few prospects I like beyond 2012. For fantasy purposes, we need these guys to develop a bit more before figuring out just how and where they might contribute.

Jonathan Singleton, 1B/OF
The 20-year-old is the Astros’ top hitting prospect — and top overall prospect in some eyes — after rocketing up prospect charts following his strong 2010 in the South Atlantic League, where he slashed .290/.393/.479 and hit 14 HRs while walking (62 BBs) almost as much as he struck out (74 Ks). His 2011 wasn’t bad by any stretch, but he didn’t show the same sort of year-over-year improvement. (To be fair, though, that would’ve been asking for too much.) He moved to High-A and held his own (.833 OPS), which made him the other big get for Houston in the Pence trade. The big questions going forward are how much of Singleton’s raw power is going to translate to over-the-fence power — he’s hit 14 and 13 HRs, respectively, the past two years — and how much swing-and-miss could stall the lefty hitter’s development and impact his status as a big leaguer. After whiffing just 16% of the time in 2010, that figure jumped to 23% at the higher level. He should start off 2012 with a promotion to Double-A, which will be a big test — especially as he leaves behind the Lancaster launching pad — but if he passes, he could arrive in Houston midway through the team’s first year in the AL. Whether he shows up as poor man’s Carlos Delgado or James Loney v2.0 is up to him.

George Springer, OF
Springer, 22, was the No. 11 pick as a junior out of UConn last June. He’s an especially toolsy player for a college guy — and I mean that in the most respectful way — which is both exciting and slightly worrisome. On one hand, he’s got a combination of athleticism, pop and speed on his side, which could make Springer an all-around stud. On the other hand, if he doesn’t develop quickly or overcome what scouts see as some holes in his swing, he’ll start to lose some of his prospecty shine. He only got 28 ABs at Low-A after signing, so he could return to that level, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the org push him with a promotion to High-A pretty quickly, if he doesn’t start out there in 2012. He’ll be a high pick in keeper/dynasty leagues because of his potential and draft pedigree. Let’s hope he can start cashing in soon.

There’s a significant dropoff to the next three, so let’s turn to lightning-round style…

Kody Hinze, 1B: A 24-year-old righty bat, Hinze slashed .306/.420/.541 with 29 HRs and 98 RBIs across High- and Double-A in 2011. That got him noticed, but most of the production came at High-A Lancaster, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors, as he mashed .323-22-70 at that level — for which he was also old. Mentioned as a possible DH candidate for 2013, he’ll need to prove he can conquer Double-A first. Keep an eye on how the org chooses to deploy Hinze at Corpus Christi, where Singleton will also be on the roster.

Jay Austin, OF: Houston’s second-rounder in 2008, Austin should get to Double-A in his age 21 season next year. He’s more enigmatic (.249 BA, .310 OBP) than dynamic (114 SBs in four years) at this point, but if he can put it all together, he could become a speedy centerfielder with a bit of pop. Or he could be a guy who never makes it.

Austin Wates, OF: The 23-year-old has shown so far — albeit in just one full season since going in 2010′s third round — that he can put bat on ball (9.6% K) and run a little (26 SBs). But his offensive numbers (.300 BA, .779 OPS) have to be taken with truckloads of salt since they came at — you guessed it — Lancaster. Unless he can prove to excel in at least on aspect, he’s probably a fourth outfielder in the end.

3) The Class of 2011

And just to finish up with a little housekeeping, the following players exceeded the rookie minimums (130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 30 games pitched) in 2011, so they no longer qualify for prospect status. I’ve listed them in rough order of their projected value for 2012, at least in my opinion:

Mark Melancon, RP: Yeah, a closer tops this list, which shows exactly how fantasy-unfriendly this org is. Melancon was actually quite solid once he took over the stopper reigns (20 saves, 2.78 ERA, 8.0 K/9), and the team plans to carry on as if he’s the guy next year, too, so he’ll be relevant in all mixed leagues as a sleeper closer. Unless the new regime chooses a different direction.

J.D. Martinez, OF: Pop is his best asset, but it doesn’t stand out. He could approach 15-18 HRs and top 60 in both runs and RBIs because he’ll play every day. That means he’s a possible OF4 in NL leagues — but not worth a look in mixed formats shallower than 12 teams.

Jose Altuve, 2B: His biggest problem is that most of his value is going to be tied to runs and swipes, but he doesn’t get on base enough to really help in either (2.1% BB) and his teammates aren’t going to drive him in when he does. Passable MI starter in 12-team NL-only.

Jordan Lyles, SP: He actually pitched better than his rookie stats indicate (5.36 ERA but a 4.13 xFIP). His strong walk rate will help limit the damage, but he’s too hittable, too homer-prone (107 hits and 14 HRs in 94 IPs) and might only win 8 games. NL spot starter.

Brian Bogusevic, OF: Intriguing bat who could reach double-digits in HRs and SBs if he gets 500 ABs — which no team should ever give him. Then again, you know what they say about beggars being choosers. Could be a solid NL-only reserve with an outside shot at becoming an OF5.

Jimmy Paredes, INF: Even if he beats out Chris Johnson — he shouldn’t — Paredes is not as good as he showed last year (.286 BA, .713 OPS), mainly because his plate discipline is atrocious: 5.0% BB vs. 26.3% K. He’d help his cause as a semi-valuable bench piece in NL formats if he showed some of his base-stealing chops and earned 2B-eligibility.

David Carpenter, RP: After showing decent stuff in his debut (2.93 ERA, 9.4 K/9), he should get some holds as a bullpen filler for NL-only owners. If Melancon falters, there’s a chance Carpenter backs into a handful of saves.

Aneury Rodriguez, SP/RP: Potential back-end starter who probably will wind up being a long man that splits his time in the pen and rotation. A bench option in deep NL play, at best.