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Second Base Outcomes: Reader Mock Draft

So we’ve done a pretty thorough bludgeoning of the recent reader mock draft, looking at almost every round except for the fliers, and covering several of the positions along the way as well. Second base has me particularly concerned headed into 2012, so let’s break down how the readers handled the challenge of staffing their squads at that position.

The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:

Player Reader Mock MDC ADP Difference
Robinson Cano 6 11 -5
Dustin Pedroia 17 17  0
Ian Kinsler 28 23 5
Brandon Phillips 44 60 -16
Dan Uggla 59 53 6
Rickie Weeks 70 78 -8
Ben Zobrist 71 80 -9
Chase Utley 80 76 4
Howie Kendrick 92 107 -15
Jason Kipnis 103 162 -59
Dustin Ackley 122 134 -12
Danny Espinosa 126 149 -23
Jemile Weeks 140 152 -12
Neil Walker 145 139 6
Aaron Hill 226 310 -84
Kelly Johnson 227 329 -102
Ryan Roberts 244 197 47
Jose Altuve 274 228 46
Mike Aviles 279 339 -60
Ryan Raburn 294 346 -52
Gordon Beckham 304 318 -14
Daniel Murphy 313 289 24
Brian Roberts 320 350 -30
Alexi Casilla 329 223 106

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Alexi Casilla: ADP Rising

If you’re over on Mock Draft Central checking out recent ADP numbers, one of the more helpful tools they have is the ADP trend chart.  It gives a detailed look at each player’s rise and fall in the ADP ranks over the last two weeks which in turn helps you see whether or not you can actually wait on a particular guy in your draft or if you may have to act on him a little earlier based on a recent spike in popularity.  One player who is garnering recent attention and is shooting up the ADP rankings is Minnesota second baseman Alexi Casilla.

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2B ADP: Early Results

Mock Draft Central is currently running mock drafts and I will look at how second basemen are being taken in those drafts. Besides the data Mock Draft Central provides, I have added in the approximate round the player would have been taken in a 12-team draft and the difference between the earliest and latest the player was drafted. First, here is a list of the second basemen with their draft stats:
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Would You Rather Draft: Rickie Weeks or Danny Espinosa?

We started doing these hypotheticals earlier in the offseason as we were discussing potential keepers.  Well now as we get closer to people’s drafts, our own Dan Wade has turned it into a game of Would you Rather Draft.., so I’ve decided to play along.  Second base dilemma here again — Rickie Weeks or Danny Espinosa?

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Matt Angle: Sleeper in Baltimore?

As the winter draws to an end and we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the Baltimore Orioles have yet to fill the role of their designated hitter, a spot left vacant when the club opted not to offer Vladimir Guerrero arbitration. 

Obviously there’s still the ability to sign a DH-type player such as Hideki Matsui, Carlos Pena or Johnny Damon, but according to Buster Olney and MLB Trade Rumors, they don’t seem too high on the idea. If that’s really the case and the Orioles fill the job in-house by using the DH-by-committee approach, then that fact coupled with the recent Nick Markakis abdominal surgery opens the door for a very interesting late round sleeper pick — Matt Angle.

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2012 Pod Projections: Dustin Ackley

On Monday, I posted an introduction to my forecasting method for hitters that I developed to help me in my fantasy leagues. I do not actually project any statistics besides the five fantasy categories and those that lead to the calculation of them. As a result, no walks and on base percentage, doubles and slugging percentage or wOBA from me. So just a heads up if anyone wanted to hear what OPS I am projecting, sorry, but I have no projection!

Since I am going in alphabetical order in my projections and haven’t gotten very far, I have decided to start with Dustin Ackley. He is quite the interesting player to project as Jeff Zimmerman is not a fan and Chad Young suggested fantasy owners pass on him and wait for Jason Kipnis later. Early mock drafters aren’t overly optimistic, as his ADP sits at 133, which is the beginning of the 12th round 11th among second basemen.

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Too Close To Call: Gordon Beckham and Jose Altuve

In honor of last night’s too-close-to-call Iowa Caucuses, today, it’s time to look at two players who seem to be going close to one another in the early mock draft returns. In the interest of fairness, one comes from the American League, the other from the National League, so no one can accuse me of favoring one party over the other. * Read the rest of this entry »


Why You Should Pass on Ackley and Wait for Kipnis

In the FanGraphs mock draft, the first three second basemen off the board were exactly who you would expect: Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, and Ian Kinsler. The fourth was Dustin Ackley, the soon-to-be 24-year-old second basemen of the Seattle Mariners. Ackley was a top prospect prior to the 2011 season, and didn’t disappoint in his first taste of the big leagues, posting a .765 OPS with six home runs and six stolen bases in just 90 games.

Fast forward six rounds, and Jason Kipnis became the tenth 2B selected, grabbed with the second pick in the tenth round. Kipnis tore apart the American League in his first 36 games, posting an .840 OPS with seven home runs and five stolen bases. So why did he go 69 picks later than Ackley in the mock draft?

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Michael Cuddyer Moves A Mile Higher

The strange square dance of Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer, the Twins, and the Rockies seems finally to have ended, and everyone — for the time being anyway — is happy with their new partner. The Twins get a player with a consistent track record of .800 OPS or better, the Rockies get the player they wanted from the start of the offseason, Willingham gets the starting job he deserves, and Cuddyer gets $10 million more than Willingham despite not really being that different a player in the outfield.

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Breaking Down 2B in Dynasty Draft

Last Sunday night a few of the Fangraph writers participated in a Mock Dynasty Draft. Today, I am going to give my thoughts on the 2B taken in the draft.

R1 P7 – Robinson Cano
R1 P12 – Dustin Pedroia
R2 P11 – Ian Kinsler

These 3 are the top 2B in the league. Personally, I would take Pedroia and Kinsler over Cano based on the SB potential.

R4 P5 – Dustin Ackley

The pick of Ackley was too high IMO for a few reasons. First, I think there were better established players still on the board from other positions like Mark Teixeira and Adrian Beltre. If, a person wanted to go the prospect/youth route Hosmer, Strasburg and Posey were still available. Also, Ackley seems to have limited potential and some 2B picked below him are probably producing at or above his peak.

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