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Impact Analysis: Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates

Dave Cameron and R.J. Anderson have broken the news on the regular blog, but if you haven’t heard, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in the process of acquiring Akinori Iwamura from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Jesse Chavez.

Dave and R.J. have already discussed the value to their real life teams, but what does this do for Iwamura’s fantasy value? Assuming the deal is finalized without any problems, a move to the National League always seems to help a hitter, but because “Aki” isn’t a power threat, the impact will be minimal.

Iwamura probably isn’t draftable unless you’re in a deep or AL/NL only league. However, the addition of a .355 OBP player could help Garrett Jones, Lastings Milledge and Andrew McCutchen’s RBI opportunities, bumping them up slightly in the rankings. Also, the addition of a solid defender should help Pirates starters such as Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, as Delwyn Young wasn’t doing them any good at their second base during the second half of 2009.

On the Rays side, this move shows their commitment to using Ben Zobrist as their primary second baseman in 2010, giving him more of a defined role. As R.J. mentioned, Willy Aybar and Sean Rodriguez could also see time, but don’t expect them to give you anything of value with it.

As far as Chavez goes, I wouldn’t worry about him. He’s a mop up guy who shouldn’t be used in high leverage situations, making his fantasy value as close to zero as you can get.

Winter Signings: Freddy Sanchez

The San Francisco Giants re-signed second baseman Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal late last week. The deal is worth $12 million in total, and it eliminates an $8.1 million option that the club held for 2010. The Giants organization traded for Sanchez in ‘09 and gave up prized pitching prospect Tim Alderson to acquire the veteran.

Sanchez, who turns 32 in December, hit .293/.326/.416 in 111 games in 2009, and he missed time with a knee injury, which has now been surgically repaired. He’s expected to be fully healthy for spring training in 2010. After being acquired on July 29, Sanchez appeared in just 25 games with the Giants because of the injury. The new contract helps make up for the fact that the organization traded a promising pitcher (even if Alderson’s value is diminished somewhat at this point) for 25 games worth of an injured veteran second baseman.

From a fantasy perspective, Sanchez’ deal doesn’t really help his value. He will remain with a club that does not have a very potent offense, so the impact on Sanchez’ runs and RBIs will be modest at best. He produces just single-digit home runs and stolen bases, so his value is tied up solely in his batting average in most traditional fantasy leagues. That makes Sanchez a second-tiered option at second base.

Sanchez’ two-year deal likely ends Emmanuel Burriss‘ hope of playing everyday in San Francisco, unless he can supplant the disappointing Edgar Renteria at shortstop, which is unlikely. Sadly, the club probably could have gotten more offensive value – and for the league minimum – from Ryan Rohlinger, who showed pop at triple-A in ‘09 with a .188 ISO. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at second base, playing mostly third base in the minors, but he’s shown a modest ability at the keystone. Depth-wise, the organization has middle-of-the-road second-base prospect Nick Noonan, a former first round pick from 2007. He is probably two to three years away from contributing at the MLB level.

Overall on the season, Sanchez posted a WAR of 2.2 and was worth about $10 million, mainly due to his defensive contributions. For similar money, the club would have been better off looking at free agents such as Orlando Hudson (2.9 WAR) or Felipe Lopez (4.6 WAR), although the latter will likely be over-priced on the market due to his above-average offensive season. A cheaper option would have been Akinori Iwamura (1.2 WAR), whose value was diminished by an injury in ‘09.

Prado Producing in Atlanta

Entering the 2009 season, Martin Prado wasn’t really in the immediate plans of the Atlanta Braves. The Venezuelan-born Prado made his living by subbing at any position where a need arose: second, third, first, outfield, shortstop…you name a spot, and Martin has manned it at some point.

His lumber, however, was considered fringy. Prado posted a career .300/.353/.393 line in the minors, which suggested that he could swat some singles but little else. But if one wished to be optimistic, there were signs that his overall numbers underestimated his offensive ability. As a 23 year-old at AAA Richmond in 2007, Prado produced a .316/.374/.420 triple-slash in 443 PA. A batting average-driven line to be sure, but Martin managed the strike zone well (8.6 BB%, 10.4 K%).

Prado followed up that strong year at Richmond with a .320/.377/.461 (.367 wOBA) season with the Braves in 2008. In 254 PA, he drew walks at an 8.4% clip and whiffed just 12.7%. His Isolated Power (.140) surpassed any figure he had posted in the minors. Prado didn’t venture out the zone very much (18.8 Outside Swing%; the MLB average hovers around 25 percent) and he made contact with 93.7 percent of pitches within the strike zone (87.7% MLB average).

In 2009, Martin was largely supposed to spot for Chipper Jones when the venerated switch-hitter needed a day or two off to mend. Instead, Prado has seen nearly equal amounts of time at first base, second base and the hot corner. The 25 year-old has mostly manned the keystone over the past month, as Kelly Johnson (wrist) hit the DL.

With a chance to play on a regular basis, Prado has compiled a .377 wOBA, with a .323/.384/.486 line in 248 PA. His rate of free passes drawn is up a bit (9.1 BB%), with a decrease in his already-low K rate (10.9 K%). Prado has put the bat on the ball even more frequently on pitches in the zone (95.8%, one of the 10-highest rates in the majors), and his ISO is up to .164.

Is Prado this good of a hitter? In all likelihood, he’s performing at the uppermost bounds of his capabilities right now. His BABIP has been in excess of .350 over the 2008-2009 seasons, which seems likely to regress at least somewhat. Using the Expected BABIP Calculator from The Hardball Times (discussed in more detail in this post on Placido Polanco), Prado “should” have posted a BABIP in the neighborhood of .325 over the ‘08 and ‘09 seasons. That would mean that Prado is more of a .300-type hitter than the .320+ cyborg we have seen as of late.

The rest-of-season ZiPS projections voice a similar opinion, calling for a .309/.365/.432 line from here until the end of the 2009 campaign. Prado has a strong grasp of the strike zone and produces scores of contact, making him a viable fantasy option. But, it would be wise to expect the sky-high average to dip to some extent, with fewer extra-base hits (.123 projected ISO for the rest of ‘09).

Johnson is nearing a return to action, and it will be interesting to see how the Braves dish out playing time. From an offensive standpoint, Prado’s .350 rest-of season wOBA bests Johnson’s .340.

In three seasons at second, Johnson (a converted outfielder) has posted a -6.8 UZR/150, though he was on the positive side in ‘09 prior to the injury. As a rover, Prado doesn’t have an especially large sample of innings at any position, though his early work at second looks Kent-esque. That could just be the product of working with limited data, though his minor league numbers aren’t really sterling, either. If he continues to be penciled into the lineup, Prado’s multi-position act deserves a look in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Placido’s Quiet Lumber

The sight of Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco whiffing at a pitch occurs about as often as a Halley’s Comet spotting. Since 2002, Polanco has put the bat on the ball 91.9% of the time, while the major league average has hovered around 80 percent. On pitches within the zone, Placido has connected on 96.2% of his hacks (86-88% MLB average over that time period). Not surprisingly, Polanco has just a 7.1% K rate during his major league career.

At first glance, the 34 year-old Dominican would appear to be having a typical Polanco season. He has posted the fourth-highest contact rate in the big leagues (92.9%), with the highest connect rate on pitches within the strike zone (98.1%). Polanco’s 7.9% K rate is ninth-lowest among qualified batters.

Yet, despite all of that contact, Polanco is in the midst of a lousy offensive campaign. His .308 wOBA converts to -5.7 park-adjusted Batting Runs. That places Polanco among out-machines like Seattle’s Jose Lopez and Chicago’s Chris Getz. Preseason projection systems such as ZiPS, Oliver and CHONE pegged Placido for a wOBA between .334 and .344.

So, what has caused Polanco’s forgettable 2009 season? The first thing that catches one’s eye is a .263 BABIP, leaps and bounds below his .321 mark in 2008. How much should we expect that figure to bounce back? To try and answer that question, let’s use a BABIP estimator from The Hardball Times. Derek Carty of THT developed a BABIP calculator, based on the great work that former Rotographs writer Peter Bendix (along with Chris Dutton) conducted this past winter.

In their study, Bendix and Dutton included many more variables into their BABIP estimator, going well beyond the “line drive percentage plus .120″ formula that many had been using. The premise of the “LD +.120″ idea is that line drives fall for hits way, way more than any other batted ball (74.1 percent of the time in the AL this year). But by including other factors such as hitter’s eye, speed score and pitches/PA, Bendix and Dutton produced a formula with a higher year-to-year correlation.

According to the BABIP estimator, Polanco “should” have a BABIP of .304 this season, compared to his actual .263 mark. If we adjust his batting line for the additional hits, Placido’s line should be closer to .297/.353/.427 than his actual .256/.312/.386 triple-slash (and that’s assuming all additional hits were singles).

Polanco is having some crummy luck on balls put in play this year, and he should bounce back close to established levels in the second half. But that’s not to say that there’s nothing to be concerned about.

Placido has seen his LD% dip from 23.9% in 2007 to 16 percent in 2009. While some of that could be scoring bias (line drives don’t exist in of themselves, and there’s a pretty sizable gap between different parks in terms of the number of line drives coded). But that is a large decrease. In place of those liners, Polanco has hit more flyballs (31.3 FB% in ‘07, 38.2% this year). That’s not a particularly pleasant development for a player with limited pop. Also, Polanco has gradually expanded his zone. His Outside Swing% has climbed from 21.6% in 2006 to 26 percent this season (25% MLB average).

In all probability, Polanco will commence being the near-.300 hitter we have come to know over the years. In fact, ZiPS projects a .299/.345/.410 line for the rest of the ‘09 campaign. There are some unhappy trends in his batted ball data (fewer liners, more flyballs), but it’s hard to say how much of that is Polanco and how much of that is based on the caprices of the official scorer (this is why people are so excited about Hit F/X; no more lumping batted balls into subjective categories). If you’re struggling to get production from the keystone spot, however, you could do worse than buying low on Placido.

What Ever Happened to Nepotism?

As you’ve probably already heard from some of the other great sites covering minor league baseball around The Net, the annual Futures Game rosters have been announced. And, as usually, both the U.S. roster and the World roster are stuffed with talented prospects.

One interesting name of the U.S roster is second baseman Eric Young Jr. of the Colorado Rockies. For whatever reason, though, the Rockies organization is not nearly as enamored with the infielder as I am… which is odd given the marketing angle with Young Jr.’s father Eric Sr. having been the Rockies’ first ever second baseman back in 1993. The younger Young also has a proven minor league track record of success at the plate and on the base paths, which should make this a match made in heaven.

The 24-year-old speedster is still plugging away in triple-A midway through the 2009 season, despite the fact that be performed very well in double-A last year, as well as in the Arizona Fall League. This season, Young has a triple-slash line of .292/.383/.413 in 264 at-bats, along with 43 stolen bases in 51 attempts. The switch-hitter also has a respectable walk rate of 11.1% and has decreased his strikeout rate by three percent over last year to 16.3%.

Currently, the Rockies’ MLB roster boasts three players who are capable of playing second base: Clint Barmes (.275/.322/.470), Omar Quintanilla (.222/.344/.259), and Ian Stewart (.218/.300/.479). Not one member of the trio has played well enough this season to warrant a regular gig. Obviously, Quintanilla would be the easiest player to jettison, while leaving Barmes to back-up the middle infield and Stewart to back-up the infield corners.

Barmes has seen the most playing time at second base this season and he has an OK batting average, but he’s not really providing much else – just slightly above-average power and limited base-stealing skills. Young, on the other hand, could provide some much-needed speed to the Rockies lineup with his ability to steal 40-60 bases over the course of a full season. He also has surprising pop, which could be aided by the Colorado air.

Looking ahead, Barmes will be entering his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter and is already making $1.6 million. Perhaps the Rockies could save some money by flipping Barmes to a contender (like the Mets? Or Cincinnati?) before the trading deadline and receive back a B-level prospect. The worst case scenario would have Young falling flat on his face, which would mean that the club would have to toss $1.5 to $3 million at a veteran second base in the off-season, which be about the same amount it would cost to keep Barmes in the fold for the 2010 season.

Brandon Phillips Now Belieiving in this OBP Stuff?

“I don’t believe that on-base percentage stuff. That’s overrated to me. If you get hits, you’ll be on base. That’s what it’s about.”

- Brandon Phillips, 3/1/2009 to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer

In some respects, the above quote perfectly crystallized Brandon Phillips‘ early major league career. It may be hard to remember now, given that Cliff Lee has a Cy Young award on his mantle and Grady Sizemore has established himself as one of the most valuable center fielders in the game, but Phillips was the principal prospect acquired by the Indians in the June 2002 Bartolo Colon swap. The North Carolina prep product received his first extended look with Cleveland in 2002, at the age of 22. Walking just 3.6 percent of the time and whiffing 20.8%, Phillips struggled to keep his head above water while batting .208/.242/.311 in 393 plate appearances.

The Indians decided to take a step back with the club’s prized youngster, letting him spend the better part of the next two seasons at AAA Buffalo. Phillips wasn’t bad by any means, but he didn’t make much progress in terms of controlling the strike zone:

2004: .303/.358/.430, 8.4 BB%, 10.7 K%
2005: .256/.326/.409, 8.4 BB%, 19.4 K%

Since being shipped to Cincinnati in April of 2006 (Phillips was out of options, and the Indians were out of patience), Phillips has posted wOBA’s of .331 in ‘06, .354 in 2007 and .324 in 2008. His walk rates over those three seasons were 6.1, 4.8 and 6.5, respectively. Phillips’ strikeout rates hovered right around 16 percent.

In 2009, Phillips is turning in his best season yet, with a .360 wOBA and a powerful .279/.350/.502 line in 264 PA. While Cincy’s second baseman might have shown disdain for On-Base Percentage this spring, you sure wouldn’t know it from examining his plate approach this season.

Phillips has upped his walk rate considerably this year, drawing a free pass 10.2% of the time. The soon-to-be 28 year-old chased about 34 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone over the 2007-2008 seasons, well above the MLB average that hovers around 25 percent. This season, Phillips has ventured out of the zone only 27.5 percent of the time. After taking a hack at nearly 55 percent of pitches seen over the ‘07 and ‘08 seasons (the MLB average is about 45 percent), Phillips has cut that number down to 49.2% in 2009.

This newfound discipline is a great sign for Phillips, as opposing pitchers have increasingly given him fewer pitches within the zone:

Phillips’ percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone:

2006: 55.2%
2007: 53.2%
2008: 49.9%
2009: 48.3%

(the MLB avg. in 2009 is 49.1 percent)

As Phillips garnered a reputation as a free-swinger, pitchers became increasingly hesitant to toss him a pitch in the zone. And why not take that approach? If the guy is likely to lunge at a fastball off the plate or a curve in the dirt, then why take the risk of giving him a meatball?

Phillips’ enlightened plate approach has also helped him in the contact department. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 10.9%, which ranks as the 20th-lowest mark among qualified hitters. The 6-0, 195 pounder boasts a career-best .223 ISO, fourth among qualified second basemen.

Couple Phillips’ power and slick leather with less cuts taken at pitcher’s pitches, and you have one of the most valuable up-the-middle players in the majors: with 2.3 Wins Above Replacement, Phillips trails only part-time 2B Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler among those who man the keystone position. Phillips might not believe in all this…OBP stuff. But, he has really honed his strike zone control in 2009, making him a truly dangerous hitter.

Fringe Options

Not all of us are looking to sell high and buy low right now. Some of us are just looking for help – any help at all – off the wire. And if you’re in an NL-only, AL-only, or even a 20-team, MI/CI, 5 OF and 2 UTIL league (yeah, that one is fun), you’re looking for any guy that might take the job and start for a while.

Let’s take a look at some of these fringe options. Every once in a while, the ‘first guy off the bench’ can really do some damage in these deeper leagues.

Edwin Maysonet
– His speed is the only skill he has that registers as decent on the scouting scale, and his contact and patience are both below average. About what you’d expect from a middle infielder with a minor league career .259/.338/.384 slash line. But you know what? He’s hot. After hitting .271/.343/.379 in his second year at AAA last year, he earned seven at-bats in the majors and got one hit. Repeating seems to work for him, as he’s currently hot in his second try at the major leagues after putting up a batting-average heavy .309/.417/.395 at AAA in his third try at the level. Of course, his current BABIP (over .400) has a lot to do with it. Why not get some stats out of the young guy, though – it’s not like 33-year-olds with injury-riddled histories come back quickly from bad hammies. (Yes Kaz Matsui, I’m looking in your direction. How’s the couch feeling?)

Jonny Gomes – The good news about Gomes is that he’s actually bettered his strikeout percentage over the last three years. Of course, he started at a Russell-Branyan
-esque 36%, and he may have made some of his gains by being reduced to a part-time role (his .219/.309/.425 slash line versus righties is just ugly, and he had twice as many at-bats against lefties as righties last year). On the other hand, Ramon Hernandez
is brittle enough – why push him with more at-bats at first base? While starter Joey Votto is out with his mysterious stress-related illness, someone has to play first. When that someone is Gomes, versus a lefty, take advantage of that .271/.371/.512 slash line against southpaws.

Sean RodriguezHowie Kendrick is struggling. Despite being a .294 hitter in a career 300 games, the fact that he has never even put together 400 plate appearances in a single season makes everyone wary. Are his current struggles injury related? Or, as the low .262 BABIP (career .346) suggests, just luck related? He really needs to start hitting better than 12% line drives, and his upside seemingly belongs along side the other high-contact-rate low-pop second basemen like Robinson Cano and Placido Polanco. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is showing mighty power for a second baseman. His .279/.364/.637 slash line shows isolated power that is well above his career .494 slugging percentage in the minors, but right in line with his .645 slugging percentage from last year. Guess he likes Salt Lake City and its 1.16 park factor for home runs in 2008. If the team gets tired of Kendrick, or – gasp – he gets hurt again, Rodriguez is worth a long look.

Ryan Roberts – With all the first basemen in Arizona hurt (what’s in that water?), Roberts has found his way into some at-bats over the past week-plus. This former shortstop’s defense is above-average, so he probably has a chance of sticking as the corner infielder, at least until even Tony Clark is back. Roberts has always been a power-and-patience guy and his major league strikeout percentage (29.8%) is not in line with his minor league one (19.8%). This year, he’s got that number down to 23.9%, which bodes well for his offense. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .471 and ZiPS pegs him for a reasonable .256/.328/.380 finish. There’s not much to like here, since the team has decided that Mark Reynolds is a fine solution at the hot corner despite his poor defense.

Elvis A. versus Manny B.

First off, full disclosure: this is a mailbag-inspired piece and Eric/OR should get his credit. He asked a good question, and it deserves some attention.

Who will be better from here on out this season, Elvis Andrus or Emmanuel Burriss?

First, let’s look at all the things this diminutive middle infielders have in common. They both weigh under 190 pounds, they both make their living in the middle infield and own shortstop eligibility in most leagues, and they are both fleet of foot. Okay, enough of the obvious, because the similarities run much deeper.

Check out their batted ball statistics. Burriss features a 19.8% line drive percentage, a 58% groundball percentage, and a 22% fly ball percentage. Andrus? How about 19.5%, 58.5%, and 22% respectively.

It gets even crazier when you start looking at their approach to the strike zone. They both make great contact inside the zone – consider Andrus’ 93.5% contact percentage in the zone, and Burriss’ career 92.8% number. Andrus reaches a little more than you’d like from a table setter (25.2% O-Swing %), and hey, Burriss has that same fault (24.8%). Both could walk more (Andrus – 5.8% BB%; Burriss – 7.3%), but a good walk rate does not a good batting average make.

No, their speed and good contact in the zone seems to presage that these players will put up decent batting averages in the future, if only because they’ve done so before. Given their skills, their high-ish BABIPs shouldn’t be too worrisome (Andrus – .309; Burriss – .326).

ZiPS, at first, seems to predict the same regression for both, though the reason for the regression is not immediately clear. Andrus owns a rest of season projection of .249/.304/.428 with 26 steals, and Burriss has a projection of .256/.312/.301 with 27 steals.

That slugging percentage is where the twins begin to separate a little more. The doubles and triples that Andrus has on Burriss will be valuable in many leagues (8 combined for Andrus, five doubles and no triples for Burriss). On the other hand, don’t count on home runs from Andrus – an 11% HR/FB percentage is not sustainable when you’re only hitting 22% of your balls in the air.

If there is a difference between the two, it just might be found in their slugging percentage, their BABIPs and in their differing strikeout percentages (Andrus – 13.1%; Burriss – 16.9%). Strikeouts are negatively correlated with batting average, and Burriss’ also has a little farther to fall because of his higher BABIP. Give a slight edge to Andrus for his lower strikeout rate, lower BABIP, and higher slugging percentage.

Any edge that you’d like give Burriss for his 300 extra plate appearances might disappear depending on your opinion of the 4-component speed score. While he had elite totals in the minors (7.8 and 7.7 in A ball), his 4.1 this year is dwarfed by Andrus’ 7.3 (despite only topping 7.0 in the minors once).

Though they seemed like twins to begin, Andrus looks to have slight edges in some key categories. The improving lineup around Andrus is the final nail in the coffin. Don’t bet against Elvis.

Weeks Walloping Pitchers in ‘09

As former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted this past offseason, Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks has been breaking baseball hearts for years. The 2nd overall pick out of Southern University back in 2003, Weeks crushed minor league pitching to the tune of .289/.387/.493, including a gargantuan 2005 season at AAA Nashville (.320/.435/.655) that earned him a spot in the big leagues that June. A powerfully built right-handed hitter with a Sheffield-like bat waggle and quick wrists, Weeks looked like he should have hit the ground running.

That 2005 big league campaign wasn’t awe-inspiring (.328 wOBA, .239/.333/.394), but Weeks drew walks at a 10% clip as a 22 year-old, while posting a respectable .156 ISO. His 2006 season (interrupted by a wrist injury) looked superficially better (.344 wOBA), but his .279/.363/.404 line was mostly the product of a .355 BABIP (.291 in 2005). In terms of working the count (7.7 BB%) and hitting for power (.125 ISO), the second baseman actually took a step back.

Then came an exciting 2007 season which again conjured up hope that Weeks would make good on his star prospect status. Although he again dealt with a wrist malady (and was actually optioned to the minors in early August), his wOBA climbed to .365. Weeks drew a free pass a robust 16% of the time with a .189 ISO, leading to a .235/.374/.433 showing. He absolutely clobbered the ball in the second half of the season, with a .903 OPS (.720 in the first half).

So, the stage was set for Weeks to bust out. Except, he didn’t. He wasn’t bad, mind you, with a near league-average wOBA of .334. He still worked the count well (12.2 BB%), but he didn’t show quite as much pop (.164 ISO). His Line Drive% was just 15.1. Injuries continued to bother Weeks as well (a sore left knee and a left thumb this time). Combine the mildly disappointing lumber with an improved-but-still-iron glove and a tendency to get nicked up, and Weeks was beginning to look like just another guy.

In 2009, however, the 26 year-old is finally thumping opposing pitchers like many scouts projected. With 9 dingers and a .257 ISO in 153 PA, Weeks has a .377 wOBA that ranks 8th among second basemen. The 5-11, 210 pounder has been a little more aggressive in ‘09, chasing 23.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (19.6% career average). His walk rate (6.7%) and P/PA (3.8 in ‘09, compared to 4.2 in 2007 and 4.1 in 2008) also reflect a less restrained approach. Weeks is also lofting the ball more often (43.8 FB%, 37.1 career average) and his line drive rate has rebounded (19%). His K rate, always rather lofty, is largely unchanged (25% in ‘09, 26.2% career).

Weeks’ BABIP (.323) is perhaps a little higher than one might anticipate, but his power stroke should be here to stay. When not hampered with hand injuries, Weeks has shown the ability to drive the ball. The updated ZiPS projections on our player pages (which blend preseason projections with early-season performances) show Weeks posting a .262/.353/.462 line, good for a .360 wOBA. That checks in as the 8th-best forecast among second baseman. We’ve waited on Weeks for years, but perhaps that patience will finally be rewarded.

Chris Coghlan Gets the Call

The Florida Marlins club has recalled its top middle infield prospect. Second baseman Chris Coghlan, who can also play third base, was brought up when right-hander Anibal Sanchez was placed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. The former supplemental first round pick out of the University of Mississippi in 2006 had been playing at Triple-A. He was hitting .344/.418/.552 with three homers and nine stolen bases in 96 at-bats.

Coghlan will likely see more time at third base rather than second, due to the presence of Dan Uggla at the keystone. As well, the Marlins’ current third baseman – Emilio Bonifacio – has been struggling recently after a scorching start to the season. Long term, though, Coghlan could afford the cost-conscious Marlins the luxury of trading Uggla (who has impressive power but poor defense) for much-needed inexpensive pitching depth.

Coghlan’s best position is second base due to his offensive profile, which includes average power at best. The left-handed batter slammed a career high 12 home runs in 2007 at the A-ball level. He hit just seven last year in Double-A, with an ISO of .130. Eventually, the 23 year old projects to be a 10-15 home run hitter. Although he is not a burner on the base paths, Coghlan has good speed and is a smart runner with 30 stolen base potential.

Sanchez’ injury also impacts the Marlins as it significantly damages the pitching depth for the big club, with starter Andrew Miller aleady on the DL. Sanchez is expected to be out about two months after his shoulder acted up this week (He had labrum surgery in 2007). Look for reliever Burke Badenhop to move from the bullpen to the rotation. The right-hander has been pitching in the bullpen for the Marlins. In five games, he had a 3.63 FIP with 10 hits and three walks in nine innings. Last season, the 26-year-old appeared in 13 games for the big club and made eight starts. He posted a 6.08 ERA (5.10 FIP) and allowed 55 hits and 21 walks in 47.1 innings. Badenhop has the ceiling of a No. 4 or 5 starter and his fastball has been missing a couple miles per hour this season over last.


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