If we’re looking at ADP rankings and assume that, for the most part, the top three picks are Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols (RotoGraph Reader Mock Draft aside), then the fourth pick has a number of options and a variety of directions in which to go.  Who wouldn’t want a big, mashing first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez or Joey Votto?  The position gets unusually thin past the first six guys.  And of course I’d love to have a rotation anchored by Justin Verlander and his awesome strikeouts an miniscule ratios.  Or what about some 30/50 deliciousness from Jacoby Ellsbury?  All sounds enticing, but for me, there are just two ways to go…

Jose Bautista (3B, OF) or Troy Tulowitzki (SS)?

Both are top performers at their respective positions.  Both take care of the position scarcity concern.  And both will be gone before you even think about your next pick.  But which one do you take…?

Tulo’s a beast, no question about it.  To have .300-30-100 from your shortstop, arguably one of the thinnest positions out there, you’re way ahead of the game.  Some people will chime in about potential injuries, but you know what…?  There’s a potential injury waiting to happen to each and every major leaguer out there.  This guy is a true, all-around asset.  He’s got power, decent speed, a high average/OBP, and makes outstanding contact at the plate.  People will flat-out stare at you in disbelief, mouth agape, if you pass him over.

Bautista is coming off of another fine season that saw him hit 43 home runs with 103 RBI, 105 runs scored and a slash line of .302/.447/.608.  The counting stats were all down from the year before, but his average was 40 points higher, his OBP was insane thanks to a mammoth 20.2% walk rate, and he kicked in the same nine stolen bases.  This year, I expect roughly the same, but with a lower batting average.  Still, colossal numbers and stats that are always highly coveted.

But what picking Bautista also adds is position flexibility on your roster.  The fact that he has outfield eligibility opens your draft up that much more.  When you’re looking at your third, fourth or even fifth pick, elite third basemen like Ryan Zimmerman or Pablo Sandoval still make sense for you as you move Bautista to your outfield.  Even out there he’s a top five option….heck, top three is you really look at it.

Yes, if you took Tulo with the pick and wanted to snatch up a Starlin Castro or Elvis Andrus, you could and fill your middle infield slot, but it just doesn’t make as much sense.

Again, both outstanding players.  A very tough decision.  But I would choose Bautista if the decision was mine.  I just like having that flexibility over my next few picks.

*When I say average draft positions I mean that solely in the context of the position, not overall

I only looked at the top 10 yesterday because, lets be honest, shortstop is one of the more boring positions. Today we’ll go a bit deeper, looking at the top 16 from the reader mock draft.

Reader Mock Draft, with current positional ADP in brackets:

1. Troy Tulowitzki (1)
2. Hanley Ramirez (3)
3. Jose Reyes (2)
4. Starlin Castro (4)
5. Elvis Andrus (5)
6. Asdrubal Cabrera (6)
7. Jimmy Rollins (7)
8. J.J. Hardy (9)
9. Derek Jeter (8)
10. Emilio Bonifacio 3B, LF, SS (N/A)
11. Dee Gordon (10)
12. Erick Aybar
13. Alexei Ramirez
14. Stephen Drew
15. Yunel Escobar
16. Jhonny Peralta

The inclusion of Bonifacio is the only real surprise in the top 10. With shortstop filled by newly acquired Jose Reyes, third base belonging to Hanley Ramirez and the corner outfield positions manned by Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, the only position left for Bonifacio is centerfield. However, as Eno Sarris pointed out in December, that’s not a sure thing. Whoever drafted him must be real confident that he’ll get 500+ plate appearances next season.

Once again the potential of Dee Gordon out-kicks the steady production of an Alexei Ramirez or Yunel Escobar or Jhonny Peralta. Speed is the ultimate opiate, no pun intended. Brown has something the other players don’t, however, and that’s a .gif of him being rocked like a baby by Rod Barajas. Speaking of Peralta, he seems to be getting criminally undervalued.

There are concerns about his ability to repeat his 2011 performance, but is that enough to pick him 16th? What’s the difference between J.J. Hardy and Peralta? Last season Hardy had nine more home runs and scored eight more runs than Peralta, while the latter drove in six more, hit 30 points higher and got on base more. Neither man stole a base so that’s a wash. Peralta is one of the more durable players around while Hardy has missed time due to injury in each of the past three seasons. The difference is minimal. It’s not like Hardy has a long track record of great success, either. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of Hardy this season, but there’s little reason that he should be getting so much love while Peralta slips.

The group of Aybar, Ramirez, Drew and Escobar are fairly interchangeable. None give you a big lift in a particular category, but all will give solid production across the board.

Average Draft Position:

1. Troy Tulowitzki

2. Jose Reyes

3. Hanley Ramirez

4. Starlin Castro

5. Elvis Andrus

6. Asdrubal Cabrera

7. Jimmy Rollins

8. Derek Jeter

9. J.J. Hardy

10. Dee Gordon

There’s not room for too much contention. Tulowitzki has earned the top spot. You could flip flop Ramirez and Reyes without causing too much of a stink, but the latter is coming off a terrible season while the former had one of his best. I’m not as big on Andrus as others — I like at least a little power from shortstop– but appreciate the amount of runs and steals he provides. Cabrera had a breakout season thanks in large part to a huge uptick in his power numbers. He’s been quoted as saying he changed his plate approach last season, so perhaps, like a mini-Jose Bautista, the power is real. Our own Mike Podhorzer gives reason for concern, however:

The biggest red flag can be found on the pages of ESPN Hit Tracker. If you take a look at its home page, you will notice a “Just Enoughs – AL” box in the middle of the second line of data boxes. Look whose name is second. In 2006 (the data has never been updated on the page), the league average was for 27% of home runs of the “just enough” variety. Cabrera, however, hit 15 of 25 home runs classified in the category, or 60%.

That’s not a good predictor of future success. If his home runs drop from 25 to a more reasonable 15-20 that, combined with his 15 steal potential, leaves him in good company.

You absolutely know what you’re getting from Rollins and Jeter. They’re no longer the stars they once were but put up solid numbers, for shortstops that is. Despite his 30 home runs being split evenly between home and road, Hardy benefited greatly from Camden Yard where his OPS (.856) was .104 points higher. He’s someone who is likely better than Rollins and Jeter but is being drafted lower due to the name value of the former stars. The big surprise, to me at least, is the inclusion of Dee Gordon.

The son of former pitcher Tom “Flash” Gordon, the 23-year-old has only 233 plate appearances in the majors but is being handed the starting position. The only asset he brings to the table is speed. He has 50 steal potential and nabbed 24 bags in 56 games last season. Yes, he hit .304 last year but I’m not optimistic he hits .300 in 2012. He’s hit seven professional home runs, and none above Double-A. The Dodgers don’t have a great offense so it’s not as if he’ll be scoring runs like Andrus. If his bat falters at all, meaning fewer times on base and fewer steal opportunities, his value drops dramatically. Stealing 50+ bases certainly puts him in the top 10, but that’s becoming a rarer and rarer feat these days as only three players approached it last season. He’s the highest risk/highest reward pick amongst shortstops heading into this season.

The first is Marco Scutaro. With Troy Tulowitzki entrenched at shortstop Scutaro will have to slide over to second base. He finished the season in the middle of the pack among shortstops, hitting .299/.358/.423 in 113 games. Second base isn’t as thin of a position, and Scutaro will be staring up at names like Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Ian Kinsler, Rickie Weeks and Chase Utley to name a few. Those players rank as some of the best in baseball regardless of position. Scutaro doesn’t do anything that makes him stand out offensively. He doesn’t steal bases (44 over 10 seasons), hit home runs (68 career), drive in runs (single season high of 60) or hit for a high average (.285 over last three seasons). He’s picking up a position which inherently increases a player’s worth, and should see a small boost in his numbers, but his overall value goes largely unchanged.

Trading Scutaro and Jed Lowrie to the National League allows Boston to use a combination of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto at short. It’s not a perfect platoon, but it should be able to replace the production of Scutaro. When he’s played a full season, 2008 and 2010, Aviles has been a pretty solid player, hitting over .300 each time and posting an OPS of .833 and .748 respectively. He’s not likely to hit 10 home runs, but has the ability to steal 15 bases. The skills that make Punto an attractive asset in real life, patience and defense, don’t translate well to the fantasy game. He hits for even less power (.078 ISO) than Aviles and although his on base percentage can range from decent to very good he doesn’t hit high enough in the order, or get enough playing time, to make an impact. Some want to see 22-year-old Jose Iglesias get a shot, but after hitting .235/.285/.269 in 101 Triple-A games last season that seems unrealistic. The Red Sox will get by just fine with Aviles and Punto, letting Iglesias get every day playing time in the minors.

While Scutaro gains extra position eligibility, the big winner is Aviles, who will get a majority of the at bats to start the season. Though “big” is a relative term when talking about a mid-to-lower tier shortstop. Neither player merits more than a late round pick in standard mixed leagues.

Rather inexplicably, the Red Sox recently traded said cemented shortstop to the Colorado Rockies which left a few scratching their heads and scouring Twitter to see if there was another hand to be played. After all, that left the Red Sox without a real natural shortstop and according to The Fielding Bible, shortstops are important.

Enter Mike Aviles.

The immediate speculation was some kind of platoon between Aviles and Nick Punto, which might leave a lot to be desired in Boston, but it presents a tantalizing opportunity to pounce from a fantasy baseball angle. Looking objectively at the two, they are the yin and the yang of utility infielders. Where Punto is clearly superior defensively, he produces with the bat like it’s one of those foot long souvenir splinters. Aviles has always hit pretty well — and sometimes very well — but isn’t known for his defensive abilities, although he has held his own at the six in the past. Based on that crude cursory glance, I’d have to put my money on Aviles getting the majority of starts at shortstop until he proves his glove totally incapable.

Should Aviles be named the “starter” — and for fantasy purposes, that probably means to be on the field no fewer than five times a week — you should take notice.

Aviles will be 31 when the 2012 season starts and yet he’s never played in more than 110 games — some of that due to team decisions and some of that due to injury. He’s known for swinging at everything but making a lot of contact, and he possesses decent pop. He’s reached double digit home runs just once as a major leaguer, but again, that was playing about two-thirds of a full season.

The tempting part is the promise of regular playing time. Last season, in just 286 at-bats, Avlies managed seven home runs and 14 stolen bases, actually experiencing miserable batted-ball luck in Kansas City somewhat balanced out by some good fortune upon arrival in Boston, where he hit .317/.340/.436 in a little over 100 plate appearances.

Then there’s the allure of ballpark fit. Aviles is happiest when he’s pulling the ball, and it just so happens that Fenway is happy to deliver a lot of doubles to right handed pull hitters due to something about a big wall in left. Aviles is a career .368/.366/.638 pull hitter, hitting nearly 90% of his home runs to left field, and it wouldn’t take too much of an imagination to see him bouncing balls off the monster routinely in 2012.

A shortstop with the potential to hit for average and provide double digit home runs and stolen bases is pretty valuable. If he can find 500 plate appearances in 2012, Mike Aviles could be a pretty attractive — and sneaky — pick in your looming fantasy draft.

Keep an eye on the shortstop situation in Boston. While they almost certainly are kicking the tires on a flashier option at shortstop, the current budget might not allow for it, which might open the door for Aviles to become a regular option once again.

Before we do so, refresh your memory with regards to my methodology and then check out my first hitter projection, Dustin Ackley.

At-Bats: 575. He had 604 last season, but hit second most often, which gave him additional at-bats. This year, he is set to hit near the top of the order, likely in the three hole he filled at the end of last season. Though he has missed time in past years, his injuries were of the one-time freak variety, so I don’t see any health risk. I do, however, have concerns about him remaining at the top of the lineup, as you will see shortly.

Contact Rate: 82%. Last season, his contact rate declined from 84% to 80% and really nosedived in the second half, as it fell to just 78%. It was really only a half season of weaker contact, which coincided with a spike in his fly ball rate. That looks more like a fluke, so I expect a rebound here.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 46%/18%/36%. Last season, his fly ball rate jumped to a career high 39%. When you couple the higher rate with the decline in contact rate, it certainly appears that he was consciously swinging for the fences. That said, given his history of much lower fly ball rates, it is more likely we see some regression. Of course, I cannot forecast a drop all the way back to the low 30% range he had posted from 2008-2010, because typically some of the increase is probably real.

BABIP: .315. He posted a .302 mark last year and sports a .323 career BABIP. That career mark is inflated by the .360 he posted in 2009, so ignoring that, he’s ranged from last season’s .302 to his 2007 mark of .323. The two expected BABIP formulas I use spit out .309 and .323. Taking all these numbers into account, .315 appears most reasonable.

HR/FB Ratio: 9%. This is the fun part and will likely be the only cause of debate. Last year, he posted a career high 13.3% mark. Before that, he never posted a mark above 6.7%, so last year’s was literally double his previous career high. This only brings his career average up to 7.8%. He was actually consistent from half to half, so that played no part in my projection for such a decline.

The biggest red flag can be found on the pages of ESPN Hit Tracker. If you take a look at its home page, you will notice a “Just Enoughs – AL” box in the middle of the second line of data boxes. Look whose name is second. In 2006 (the data has never been updated on the page), the league average was for 27% of home runs of the “just enough” variety. Cabrera, however, hit 15 of 25 home runs classified in the category, or 60%. He actually hit five homers that would have gone out in seven or fewer ballparks. That gives me little reason for optimism and hurts his chances for a repeat. I don’t expect his HR/FB ratio to drop all the way back to previous levels though, because let’s remember, he is still young and is at an age where his power should continue to develop.

RBI and Runs: 85 and 80. Usually a full-time three hole hitter would tally higher totals in these categories. However, as I first alluded to in the At-Bats explanation above, I am not overly confident Cabrera is going to remain hitting third. Since I don’t think he will repeat last year’s power, sooner or later the Indians are going to realize that Carlos Santana, Travis Hafner and Shin-Soo Choo (the projected 4-5-6 hitters according to MLB Depth Charts) are all better and should be hitting ahead of Cabrera. As such, he may find himself batting sixth at some point, or possibly second if Jason Kipnis disappoints. If he did return to the two hole, his RBI total would take a hit, but would make my projection look better. The At-Bats though would increase and my runs scored projection might be a tad low. If he drops to sixth, both RBI and Run projections would likely look pretty good.

SBs: 15. He has shown this type of speed in the past, so his 17 swipes from last year was no fluke. He really only has about league average speed though, so there isn’t much upside at this level and breaking 20 would be a reach.

That sums up all the numbers I manually project myself. They then get thrown into various formulas and spit out batting average and home runs. Here is my final projected batting line, along with Bill James, RotoChamp and Fans projections for comparison.

The answer to that question lies within 22-year-old Tyler Pastornicky. Not a top prospect by any means, the 5’11, 170lb Pastornicky can by all accounts handle the defensive aspect of the game, but his bat is a question mark. In four minor league seasons he’s hit .278/.345/.374 with a .083 ISO. Not terrible but not great either. In his first three seasons he sported an above average walk rate, peaking at 11.8 percent in 2010 in Class-A, and struck out anywhere between 10 to 14 percent of the time. His approached seemed to change in 2011. His walk rate lowered to 6.1 percent at Double-A and 6.8 percent at Triple-A while his strikeout rate also dropped below 10 percent after being at 13 and 14 percent in two stops in 2010. He’s obviously putting the ball in play far more, but it’s hard to know if that’s intentional or just a one season aberration. One thing he does well is steal bases. He has 120 steals over the last three seasons spanning 371 games.

There are reports that the team is looking to sign a veteran backup. Since they weren’t going to offer any veteran, such as Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal or Clint Barmes, a multi-year deal they’re left with slim pickings. According to MLBTradeRumors, there are only three free agent shortstops left on the market: Ronny Cedeno, Adam Everett and Edgar Renteria. That’s…not good. Beginning the season with a starter with zero major league experience is fine, even for a contender, especially at a position where you’re not depending on offense. However, if he slips up you better have a safety net to catch him. Pastornicky has some skills that should translate to the big league level, namely speed, but isn’t worth a draft pick in standard leagues.

One of Luhnow’s first moves was trading reliever Mark Melancon to the Red Sox for shortstop Jed Lowrie and pitcher Kyle Weiland. The last thing a rebuilding team needs is relief pitching, so flipping Melancon for one, maybe two, useful pieces is smart. Getting Lowrie is smart considering the black hole the Astros had at shortstop. Last season two players, Clint Barmes and Angel Sanchez, saw time at short for Houston, with the former getting the bulk. Neither hit particularly well, Barmes’ double digit home runs the only saving grace. With Barmes gone to the Pirates the door was left open for an acquisition such as this. Lowrie is far from a sure thing, though.

The first thing that comes to mind when hearing, or reading, Lowrie’s name is ‘injury’. Here are the games missed due to injury by the soon to be 28-year-old over the past three seasons: 56, 94, 108. The number is getting smaller each season so maybe he’ll miss zero games in 2012…ok, maybe not. When he’s been on the field his production has been sporadic. Never playing more than 88 games in any of his four seasons, his wOBA totals are thus: .326, .212, .393, .297. If fully healthy he has double digit home run power and possesses a higher than average contact rate. His lack of steals hurt his value – he has only three in 256 games. He was a sleeper pick in last year’s drafts after ending 2010 with a .936 OPS over the last two months of the season. He continued that hot hitting into the beginning of 2011 with a .962 OPS in April, but fell off a cliff for the rest of the season, never finishing another month with an OPS above .700.

There’s little doubt, if healthy, he’ll emerge from spring training as the starting shortstop. If he manages to stay on the field for 120 or more games he’ll have a good chance at being an above average bat for the position. He’s not worth much of a look come draft day in standard mixed leagues, but in deeper formats, especially N.L. only leagues, a late round flyer should get the job done.

Rollins spent much of the 2010 season either batting 1st or 3rd (when Utley was hurt) in the Phillies lineup. I really don’t expect this to change in 2012, so he will get plenty of Run and RBI opportunities. The key to remember is that if he moves down in the lineup, he will have less Run and more RBI opportunities. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

In fantasy baseball, Rollins adds value across the board, but his AVG has been down a bit over the last few years. It averaged 0.284 from 2006 to 2008. From 2009 to 2011 it dropped to 0.255. The drop was not because he struck out more. His K% was between 8% and 10% over all 6 years. Instead, his BABIP dropped significantly. It went from near 0.290 to a value near 0.255. His BABIP declined against both RHP (0.293 from 2006 to 2008 from 0.265 from 2009 to 2011) and LHP (0.294 to 0.248). While no one trait stands out as the cause, a decline in two other fantasy traits, speed and power, have added to the decline in AVG.

Jimmy is just not hitting the ball with as much power to get it out the ball park as he did in the past. Here are his HR/FB% from 2006 to 2011:

2006: 11%
2007: 11%
2008: 7%
2009: 8%
2010: 7%
2011: 8%

He is just hitting fewer balls for HRs and therefore more outs.

Also, his speed has been on the decline. Here are his Speed Score and BsR values for the last 5 years:

2007: 8.7, 6.2
2008: 7.8, 2.8
2009: 6.7, 2.4
2010: 6.5, 1.7
2011: 5.8, 0.1

Less speed means fewer ground balls he runs out and less success he has on the base paths. Last season, he had his lowest SB success rate since 2004 (79%)

Even with the decline in AVG, HRs and SBs, he is still a good fantasy option. Currently the SS position is very thin. Rollins should be able to put up double digit HRs and 20+ SBs in 2012. The key for his overall value will be his AVG. If he can get it near or past the 0.285 level, he will be a great value in the up coming season.

Another issue with him in the last couple years is that he has been on the DL once in each season (73 games in 2010 and 17 games in 2011). At one time in his career, he was in the line up almost every day. From 2001 to 2007, he never played in less than 154 games. Besides causing a decline in his stats, age is also causing him to miss more time because of injuries.

Jimmy Rollins is a aging SS and his stats and health are starting to decline because of it. The decline is not enough to take away too much of his fantasy value, yet.

R1 P1: Troy Tulowitzki
R1 P11: Hanley Ramirez
R2 P7: Jose Reyes

These three are the consensus best at the position. Tulowitzki is a top flight player at a Kate Moss-thin position, so going number one overall isn’t a surprise. Some may prefer Reyes over Ramirez due to the latter’s poor 2011 season and surgery to repair his left shoulder, but either way it’s hard to quibble with any of these selections.

R3 P4: Starlin Castro
R4 P11: Jimmy Rollins

The selection of Rollins was a curious one since it’s a dynasty draft. Apparently the selector, Mike Podhorzer, has admitted he didn’t realize it was a dynasty draft at the time of the selection, so that makes more sense. I’m the one who selected Castro, partly because good, young, shortstops are hard to find and partly because my strategy was to only pick players under 30 years of age.

R5 P9: Asdrubal Cabrera
R6 P1: Elvis Andrus
R7 P8: J.J. Hardy

Nothing too out of the ordinary here. If you’re selecting Cabrera this high then you’re a believer that his newly found power is sustainable for a second season. Andrus is bereft of power but makes up for it by scoring plenty of runs and stealing plenty of bases. I had Hardy in the third tier of my shortstop keeper rankings, behind everyone already listed, so this is a good place for him.

R11 P3: Jhonny Peralta
R11 P6: Stephen Drew
R12 P1: Alexei Ramirez
R12 P3: Zack Cozart

One of my favorite selections in the entire draft was that of Peralta. He was in the third tier of my keeper rankings and the only thing keeping him from the second tier was his total lack of stolen bases. Getting a shortstop that can hit 25 home runs and is a lock to drive in 80-90 in the eleventh round is a steal. Cozart was a surprise, but not a bad pick at all considering the dearth of shortstops remaining at that time. The 26-year-old rebounded nicely from a sub-par 2010 in Triple-A Louisville to hit .310/.357/.467 in 77 games there this season before the Reds called him up to the majors. Unfortunately his season was cut short as he needed Tommy John surgery on his non throwing elbow. Since it is his non-throwing elbow he should be ready to compete for a job in spring training, with little standing in his way. He has 10-15 home run power and playing in the Reds’ bandbox of a stadium won’t hurt.

R13 P5: Yunel Escobar
R13 P6: Derek Jeter
R13 P8: Dee Gordon
R14 P6: Erick Aybar
R15 P7: Rafael Furcal

R23 P8: Jed Lowrie
R24 P4: Emilio Bonifacio

I put Bonifacio in my third tier of keepers before the Marlins’ signing of Jose Reyes. Obviously things have changed and Bonifacio doesn’t have a defined position at the moment which is he why dropped so far. He’ll be fighting for the centerfield job with two others. If he wins it then his value will increase, but until then he’s nothing more than a bench player. Blocked by Marco Scutaro in Boston, Lowrie now finds himself with little to no competition for the starting shortstop job in Houston. Had this trade been made before Sunday I imagine he would have gone in the 13-15 round range.