Johnny Giavotella (Rank: 406, ADP 317, Drafted 4.5%)

Johnny looks to be in the running for a prime batting order position, second, in the Royals above average lineup. Last season Melky Cabrera had a top 40 fantasy year from this spot. Johnny will get a long look to see if he is the answer at 2B for the Royals or do the Royals need to find someone else to fill that position. Look for him to be a nice sleeper.

Anthony Rizzo (Rank:360, ADP 256, Drafted 2.9%)

He is the future 1B for the Cubs. While he is not at all close to being in the top echelon of 1B in the league, he will make a nice bench player or fill in for the Util spot. There is no reason for him to be drafted in less than 3% of the leagues.

Jose Altuve (Rank: 356, ADP 254 Drafted 7.0%)

While Jose is not a top 2B in the league, he will be getting plenty of playing time and hitting towards the top of the Astros lineup. While this is not an ideal position, it is a starting job for a decent player. He currently projects to have near a 0.290 AVG, nearly 10 HRs and 20 SBs. If he isn’t going to be an everyday player on a fantasy team, he will be a great Plug-n-Play guy.

Brent Morel (Rank 352, ADP 250, Drafted 19.2%)

3B is one of the more shallow positions in fantasy baseball. Morel has some value in that he is a starting 3B and has the potential to put up double digit HRs. If an owner misses out on one of the big 3B in the first part of the draft and is bottom feeding, Morel is definitely a player to take a chance on.

Zack Cozart (Rank: 349, ADP 246 Drafted 71.9%)

Zack had a nice season going in 2011 until he ended up on the DL. Drew Stubbs and him will be battling for a spot at the top of the Reds lineup. Even if he doesn’t get the spot, a SS that can hit 0.300 will be valuable in any league.

The first 3 players I examined rarely got drafted (each <10% of the time), but Zack is getting drafted in over 2/3rds of the leagues. It seems some owners know of his possible value and are snatching him up late. The earliest someone has drafted him is with the 177th pick. In a 12 team league, the pick works out to be in the 14th round. If an owner has their eyes on him and are gambling on him falling, don’t gamble much past the 13th round.

Salvador Perez (Rank 343, ADP 243, 79.6%)

Sal is grouped in the draft ranking with other catchers like John Buck and A.J. Pierzynski. He is a young, 22 years old, developing catcher that has a great chance to breakout. Perez, like Cozart, is on people’s draft sheets. They are just waiting until late in the draft to pick him up. To draft him, you may have to draft him earlier than the last couple of rounds.

While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Here’s why.

He’s still really young
Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. For comparison’s sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. It’s easy to lose sight of Heyward’s age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. But he’s younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and he’s younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis D’Arnaud.

With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a player’s long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitter’s career. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years?

His rookie year was off-the-charts good
Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didn’t punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title:

Source: Baseball-Reference

If you’re keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Heyward’s year wasn’t in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza.

With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011
There’s no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO).

But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21.

Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldn’t be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth.

For a big man, he can run a little
While he’s never going to be a big stolen base threat, he’s a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects he’ll have 14 SB in 2012. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers.

His 2012 projections are strong
With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012:

ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR
Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR
Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR
The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR

Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver don’t know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Granted, we can’t just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder.

It may sound strange, but in a way Heyward’s 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but it’s important to remember that he’s still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012.

Obviously there’s still the ability to sign a DH-type player such as Hideki Matsui, Carlos Pena or Johnny Damon, but according to Buster Olney and MLB Trade Rumors, they don’t seem too high on the idea. If that’s really the case and the Orioles fill the job in-house by using the DH-by-committee approach, then that fact coupled with the recent Nick Markakis abdominal surgery opens the door for a very interesting late round sleeper pick — Matt Angle.

The 26-year-old Angle has a prime opportunity in front of him to make an immediate impact with both the Orioles and your fantasy team this season. With Markakis’ Opening Day status now in doubt, the O’s will use the collective group of Angle, Endy Chavez, Jai Miller, and Nolan Reimold to fill in the blanks of left and right field and the DH slot. The O’s like Reimold and he should be given one of those spots fairly regularly so long as he doesn’t totally bomb coming out of the gate. But that still leaves two possible openings.

Miller will warrant consideration, but the 27-year-old who was just DFA’d by the hapless A’s (and then flipped to Baltimore for cash considerations) has a long way to go. Sure, he’s got strong power potential — he hit 32 HR last year in Triple-A — but he also whiffed 37.7% of the time. In fact, his K% hasn’t been under 30% since 2009. He’s shown he can draw a walk some of the time, but don’t the O’s have enough of that big power/big whiffs capability in Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis?

Then there’s good ol’ Chavez — he’ll be 34 years old come February, is a good defensive outfielder, but is light on both power and speed. Maybe at one point he was a solid option for a good stretch of time, but with a career .313 OBP and very little to contribute offensively, he’s not the type of guy Buck Showalter wants in the lineup every day. He’s not the type of guy anyone wants in the lineup everyday.

Angle, who in addition to playing the outfield also spent this winter learning second base at the O’s instructional camp, presents the best possibility amongst the remaining three to stick around long term. He’s just entering his prime right now, has posted solid OBP totals throughout his time in the minors, and shows exceptional speed and sensibility on the bases (82.9 SB% which includes a 10-for-11 in his short stint in the majors last year). His speed helps his range in the outfield and he has a fairly decent arm. And given the injuries that have hit Brian Roberts in the past, Angle’s new-found ability to play second gives him that super-utility quality that managers love.

The speed also works to Angle’s advantage given the current make-up of the Orioles’ lineup.  Adam Jones may have 20 SB potential if he can just lick the injury bug that always seems to bite him throughout the year, but outside of that and a declining Roberts, the O’s don’t have much in the way of speed. Angle could easily fill that void.

Keep an eye on the Oriole’s camp this spring as this situation probably won’t be fully resolved until closer to the start of the season. Watch how Showalter mixes around his lineups and split squads. With potential multi-positional eligibility and good speed, Angle just might be a great late round steal this season.

While it would be easy to write off Colon’s 2011 as a fluke, it would be foolish. He may have defied the odds last season, but his peripherals were in line with his performance. Colon’s fastball velocity returned this past season after he struggled to hit 90 mph in 2009. His fastball was not only more effective, but it also was probably one of the main reasons his strikeout rate returned to acceptable levels. Colon’s 19.5 K% marked his best performance in the category since 2001. He was also stingy with walks, posting his best BB/9 since 2007.

Perhaps more impressively, that performance came in a hitter’s park in baseball’s most brutal division. Colon has always struggled with the long ball over his career — as evidenced by his 1.11 HR/9 rate — but he’s moving to a park that suppresses home runs.

*Values courtesy of StatCorner

After pitching in the unforgiving Yankee Stadium, Colon will benefit from the spacious O.co Coliseum. Overall, his new park suppresses hits more than Yankee Stadium — with the exception of triples — and drastically suppresses home runs. As Jeff Zimmerman recently pointed out, O.co Coliseum is one of only three parks that suppress home runs for both lefties and righties. Yankee Stadium, on the other hand, was one of the eight parks that allowed home runs at an elevated rate to both lefties and righties. Lefties tattooed Colon last season to the tune of a 1.70 HR/9, so moving away from that atrocious 143 park effect is going to be a big relief. Colon is definitely going to enjoy pitching in his new home.

Colon does come with some considerable risks, however. While Colon was valuable last season, he only threw 164.1 innings. After a season away from the majors in 2010, fatigue seemed to set in as the season wore on. A look at his velocity charts reveals that Colon’s fastball petered out as the season came to a close. His August and September FIPs were 4.95 and 4.39 as a result. The last time Colon pitched a significant amount of innings was back in 2005, and it’s unclear if he’ll ever approach 200+ innings again.

While his age and recent history make him a risky pick, Colon can succeed if his velocity rebounds after an off-season of rest. He’s no longer a workhorse — and he may be susceptible to wearing down as the season progresses — but he’s moving to a friendlier park and a friendlier division. Based on his performance from last season, Colon is worth a late-round flier in most leagues. If he regains his 2011 velocity, he’ll be an interesting trade chip in June. If he falls back to Earth, you can cut your loses without feeling guilty.

How a Japanese pitcher could push back the No. 2 pick’s ETA, why F-Mart landed in the right place and whether a former first-rounder has any hope in a new org.

When teams make moves, trades and signings in the offseason, the impact is felt by everyone — including the prospects who now have new roles or different standings in the organization. That’s the focus here, as we try to determine whether a young player’s fantasy value for next season took a hit or got a bump.

1) Danny Hultzen, Mariners
There’s been speculation this offseason that Hultzen, the No. 2 overall pick in last June’s draft, could actually break camp as a member of the Mariners rotation. Indications seemed to be be that the southpaw would at least get a shot to blow the team away with a strong spring, which would be an exciting possibility for fantasy owners, especially keeper leaguers.

Not to rain on that parade (get it? Seattle? rain?), but I think the acquisition of Japanese hurler Hisashi Iwakuma* means fantasy owners awaiting Hultzen’s arrival should probably find their slickers.
*Here’s a take on Iwakuma and his fantasy value from earlier in the offseason.

Seattle’s five-man starts off with Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda and Jason Vargas, and now Iwakuma is in the mix. Those four are locks. That leaves just one spot for Hultzen, who’ll have to compete with the less-than-idea-but-still-useable Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush.

With a good spring, Hultzen could beat out those last two for the final spot, but the M’s also don’t have much reason to rush one of their top young arms to the bigs while they’re not going to be contending.

2012 ETA: Tricky to speculate because the range is Opening Day to September call-up, if Hultzen debuts next year at all. I think the smartest scenario for the org calls for a June/July promotion, to give the lefty a chance to get into a rhythm as a pro — and to help the franchise slow his service clock.
2012 IMPACT: Hultzen would be a must-add in all AL-onlies as soon as he’s called up, and keeper owners should be all over a 22-year-old who will pitch in a great park. He’s got the moxie and stuff to help mixed leaguers, too, but more as a spot starter.

2) Fernando Martinez, Astros
Though no longer eligible to be a prospect based on the number at-bats accumulated during fits and starts over three different seasons, Martinez was the Mets’ top prospect for about 52 straight years. Then we found out the org that once gave the Dominican $1.6 mill (really, it was former GM Omar Minaya), decided he was no longer worthy of, you know, playing baseball for them in any capacity.

As my colleague Mr. Cwik pointed out recently, F-Mart’s biggest problem is that he’s, well, injury-prone just doesn’t seem strong enough to cover it, does it? Injury-riddled! (An arthritic right knee will do that.) That, and the now-23-year-old Martinez was starting to run out of time, especially with all the lost development.

If there’s any good news for him, though, it’s that his new home might actually allow for everybody’s favorite: the change-of-scenery story. The Astros have one of the worst outfields in baseball, with J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer and Brian Bogusevic penciled in as the starters. (Yes, ick.) So it makes some sense that they used their top waiver claim priority to snag Martinez in a near-no-cost move.

For Houston, it’s no-lose because if Martinez does his usual — struggles at Triple-A (.265/.326/.465 slash stats over three seasons) and gets hurt — there’s not much invested. But! If he can manage to, uh, not die, well, there’s plenty of opportunity for him.

2012 ETA: This will ultimately come down to Martinez’s spring performance, but again an Opening Day roster spot wouldn’t be a total surprise. Then again, neither would an injury during the first warmups in February.
2012 IMPACT: Only owners in the deepest of deep NL-only formats should even care about Martinez for now, but he could eventually become a useable OF5 just based on having a pretty clear path to playing time.

3) Andrew Brackman, Reds
While it’s tempting to think that Brackman, who the Yankees released earlier this offseason after making him their top pick back in 2007, could become part of the shiny new Cincinnati bullpen, that just doesn’t seem to be a reality.

The Reds get kudos for adding closer Ryan Madson and lefty setup man Sean Marshall to what should be a dynamite pen (especially if Aroldis Chapman stays there), and Brackman isn’t unlike Martinez: a somewhat worthwhile shot in the dark on a former top prospect who fell out of favor with his original team. Except, Brackman has many more obstacles in his way and less value because of his role as a reliever.

The best that could realistically be expected out of Brackman, now 26, is for the 6’10″ right-hander to perform well enough at Triple-A that he earns a spot as a mop-up or long man. Even then, though, we’re talking about a guy who’s lost development time to Tommy John surgery and has only really had one non-horrible campaign (3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9) in 2010 before falling on his face again last year at Triple-A (6.00, 1.64, 7.0, 7.0).

2012 ETA: The guess here is Brackman will finagle his way into a few call-ups, if only out of the Reds’ curiosity.
2012 IMPACT: Really, none, given that he won’t have a shot at any sort of valuable role in the remade bullpen. Even NL-only owners don’t have to bother.

4) Minor Moves
Rangers prospects Mike Olt and Tommy Mendonca have been invited to the Major League camp in spring and will be tried out at 1B/LF and C, respectively.

A regular third baseman, the 23-year-old Olt is blocked by Adrian Beltre despite being one of the org’s top prospects after hitting .267/.387/.504 with 14 HRs in just 240 ABs at High-A. Mendonca, also a 23-year-old 3B, is a little lesser known, but he was the team’s second-rounder in 2009 and mashed 25 HRs and 87 RBIs at Double-A — albeit with 160 whiffs. The Rangers think his power lefty bat could translate well behind the dish, if he can handle the job.

There’s very little chance either of these two makes any real impact in 2012, particularly for the two time-defending AL champ Rangers. It’s not out of the question that one or both could be used as trade bait during the season, which would probably help their causes as far as 2013 impact. Of the two, Olt is the one to watch in keeper leagues.

Royals #2 Spot

Last season, Melky Cabrera thrived batting second for the Royals. He scored 102 times and had 87 RBIs on the league’s 10th highest scoring offense. This off season he was traded to the Giants, so the position has reopened for the Royals to fill.

With left-handers Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer entrenched into the #1 and #3 spots and Ned Yost’s love for mixing up like handed batters, a right handed bat will likely be used in the 2nd spot. Ned Yost has already put out a projected lineup with Johnny Giavotella in the #2 spot. This would be a huge boost to his value if he was able to keep the position for the whole season. Projection systems have him near a 0.280 AVG, 15 SBs and less than 10 HRs in about 500 PAs. If he is able to put up those kind of numbers in a 150 game season, he will have around 80 Runs and RBIs. One problem I see is that Giavatella is probably not the best RHH for the #2 spot.

The player I see possibly moving into the spot is the new center fielder, Lorenzo Cain. First, Cain’s OBP looks to be about 10 points higher than Giavotella’s OBP. Also, he has a bit more pop in his bat and speed in his legs.

A dark horse candidate is Salvador Perez. Perez will have no speed, but probably has the best bat of the three hitters. He is the youngest of the 3 candidates (will turn 22 in May), so there is a nice chance for more growth.

Whoever ends up hitting in the #2 spot for the Royals, Giavotella, Cain or Perez, will get a huge boost to their fantasy value. Watch to see who Yost is putting in the spot and pick up a huge sleeper.

Reds Lead Off Spot

The Reds, like the Royals, had a good offense in 2011 (7th in the league in scoring). In 95 of those games, Drew Stubbs was the lead off hitter. The problem is that he ended up losing the spot 2/3 of the way through the season, mainly because of his league leading 205 strikeouts (an over 30% K%). Brandon Phillips moved up in to the lead off spot and a mix of Renteria, Lewis and Sappelt hit in the #2 spot. With the trio of Phillips, Votto and Bruce at the top of the lineup, the lead off hitter will have a ton of Run opportunities.

The main candidate to retake the #2 spot will be Stubbs. He has good speed (averaged 35 SBs in the past 2 years) and power (averaged 18.5 HRs). His OBP is decent because of a near 10% BB%. His main problem with be the 30% K% and how much it drives down his AVG. His fantasy value could really be helped if he was able to just get his K% into the mid-20s.

The player I see eventually taking over the lead off spot will be SS Zack Cozart. Once Zach was called up in early July, he mainly hit in the #2 spot. He was eventually lost to the season with elbow and ankle injuries. He has the speed and power combo that Stubbs process, but projects to hit for an AVG that is 40 point higher (has a K% that is half of Stubbs).

I look for the final position at the top of the Reds lineup to produce great fantasy stats. If it is Stubbs, Cozart or someone else manning that position, it doesn’t matter. The player will have plenty of extra counting stats, especially Runs.

A second take on Brad Peacock, a first look at a couple of Ryans and another reason rookie Addison Reed could be the White Sox’s new closer.

When teams make moves, trades and signings in the offseason, the impact is felt by everyone — including the prospects who now have new roles or different standings in the organization. That’s the focus here, as we try to determine whether a young player’s fantasy value for next season took a hit or got a bump.

1) Brad Peacock, A’s
I already hit on Peacock this offseason in a previous Prospect Chatter, but that was before he was traded to the Oakland A’s in the Gio Gonzalez deal. While the conclusion of the previous analysis left Peacock’s 2012 fantasy value a bit in question, I see this move as a decided plus for the 23-year-old righty.

The biggest issue facing Peacock as a member of the Washington Nationals is that he was a victim of numbers. The rotation was basically full, and the chances were good that Peacock, who debuted last September after tearing up Double- and Triple-A, wouldn’t return to the bigs until mid-season. In Oakland, though, the five-man is much more wide open: The A’s have traded away Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill this winter, while the rest of the potential starters are a Who’s Who of injured players, including Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden.

In short, Peacock should enter spring training with a clear opportunity to break camp with the team as one of the final two starters. At worst, if he fails to impress in his introduction as an Athletic, he’ll be one of the first in-season call-ups. That makes him more viable in AL-only leagues than he had been in NL play, even if the move to the more offensive-driven league could be a bit of an obstacle. In Peacock’s corner, though, is that the Coliseum is one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball, particularly for home runs.

Peacock should be able to net a positive return for owners that invest in him in 12-team AL play, and his long-term keeperness also looks solid in his new digs, especially because he’s in line to be a starting pitcher going forward.

2012 ETA: Opening Day rotation seems about right, as long as Peacock doesn’t fall on his face in the spring.
2012 IMPACT: His value is aided by being in a good park and remaining a starter — he might’ve been a reliever in Washington — so while I wouldn’t invest too heavily until he proves he can contribute as more than a spot-starter in AL formats, Peacock could be a nice little sleeper.

2) Addison Reed, White Sox
Earlier in the offseason, my kind colleague, Mr. Barr, thoroughly tackled the whole who-closes-for-the-Chicago-White-Sox-now-that-Sergio-Santos-is-gone? issue. Then with the first trade of 2012, GM Kenny Williams sent Jason Frasor — one of the guys mentioned in that post — to the Blue Jays.

While I don’t think Frasor was the favorite to enter 2012 as the Sox’s closer, it’s clear that one more obstacle has been eliminated from what can only be seen as Reed’s eventual ascension to the job. The big, hard-throwing righty has rocketed through Chicago’s system after going in 2010′s third round. In fact, he pitched at — count ‘em — five levels last year, including the majors (7.1 IPs, 3 ER, 12:1 K:BB), and compiled some of the gaudiest minor-league digits you’ll see from a reliever: 1.26 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 111:14 K:BB over 78.1 IPs.

I’d be surprised if the Sox simply hand the ninth inning to Reed out of the gate, especially because that’s a lot of pressure to put on a 23-year-old kid when Matt Thornton and Jesse Crain should be able to handle things initially. But pitching coach Don Cooper has already indicated that the closer’s job will be up for grabs this spring. Plus, there have been trade rumors surrounding Thornton all offseason, and Crain also has value as a chip, too, so it might not be a bad idea to allow those two to score some saves and improve their stocks for potential in-season deals. That would make Reed the no-brainer choice going forward.

2012 ETA: Reed will come north with the White Sox, and he’ll be a key member of the bullpen, to boot.
2012 IMPACT: Even if he’s in the setup role, Reed’s holds and insane peripherals (read: Ks galore) make him worth drafting in AL-only leagues that require a four- or five-man bullpen (or as a handcuff for Thornton/Crain owners). And keeper leaguers everywhere should jump on him as a potential Craig Kimbrel-type in 2013 — if not sooner.

3) Ryan Flaherty, Orioles
The Rule 5 Draft hasn’t exactly been a breeding ground for impact fantasy players over the past few years. While we’ve seen some stud players emerge from from this secondary draft in the past decade (i.e., Josh Hamilton, Joakim Soria, Johan Santana), the last handful of iterations have lacked any relevant fantasy performer. It’s likely that the 2011 Rule 5, held in early December, will go the same route, but if there’s one player who I like to make a mark, it’s Flaherty.

After being taken out of the Cubs organization by Baltimore, the 25-year-old finds himself in a pretty good situation. While he’s not the greatest defender, Flaherty is capable of handling second and third base and also can fill in at the outfield corners. As luck would have it, those spots are unsettled for the O’s. (Nick Markakis is locked into right field, but he recently had abdominal surgery that puts his Opening Day status in question.)

There’s no reason Flaherty can’t play himself into a role where he steals some time in left from Nolan Reimold, shares duties with Chris Davis at third and enjoys the fruits of Brian Roberts‘ injury-proneness at second. If he shows he can stick with the team in a utility role during spring training, his versatility and lefty bat — he sports a career .278/.346/.462 slash line and hit 19 HRs and 88 RBIs across Double- and Triple-A in 2011 — could help him accrue 350-450 PAs.

2012 ETA: Being a Rule 5er will actually help Flaherty’s chances of making the club out of spring — otherwise, the O’s have to offer him back to the Cubs — so if he holds up into late March, an Opening Day role could be in the cards.
2012 IMPACT: Flaherty is strictly a reserve option for deep AL-onlies, since he’s not guaranteed to see many ABs even if he does stick, but there’s plenty of opportunity, and his multi-eligibility won’t hurt.

4) Ryan Kalish, Red Sox
Kalish, 23, isn’t technically a prospect anymore, but it feels like he is because he was a forgotten man in 2011 after missing most of the year with neck and shoulder injuries suffered early on. For those of you in AL-only leagues hoping to snag a snazzy sleeper, especially now that presumptive Red Sox right fielder Josh Reddick has been traded to Oakland, there’s some bad news on Kalish: He’s likely out until May or June after undergoing November surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, which came only two months after he had a procedure on his neck.

With this news, Kalish basically goes from an intriguing option as a guy who performed rather well in his first taste of the big leagues in 2010 — .252 BA, 4 HRs, 10 SBs in just 179 Pas — to a non-factor in almost all leagues. While the Red Sox still lack a legit right fielder for 2012, one would certainly think that the org would have taken care of this hole between now and the time Kalish is ready to return to the majors — which could be several weeks after he starts playing in the minors around mid-season.

2012 ETA: Given the extent and location of his injuries, Kalish would be lucky to make it back to Boston before September, considering he’ll need to first get healthy enough to play, then prove himself at Triple-A again.
2012 IMPACT: Negligible in re-draft leagues, but he could be a sneaky late-season add in keeper leagues with an eye to 2013.

Cashner has certainly been exciting when healthy. His extreme heater can reach 100 mph, but he has a tough time commanding the pitch. While he’s capable of punching out hitters at an above average rate in the majors, Cashner will have to keep his walk rate in check in order to be effective. Cashner has a slightly larger margin for error while pitching in Petco.

Pitching out of the bullpen should have it’s advantages to Cashner next season. Cashner should be able to focus on throwing his fastball and slider, his two best pitches. While he’ll need to further develop his third pitch — a change-up — in order to transition to the rotation in 2013, he should be able to get by with two pitches this season.

With the acquisition of Huston Street earlier this off-season, Cashner is not likely to get many save opportunities. With Luke Gregerson continuing to dominate in the late innings, and Ernesto Frieri establishing himself as a useful reliever last season, Cashner might have a tough time racking up a ton of holds. At the same time, Street is in the last year of his deal, and could be a mid-season trade candidate. If that’s the case, Cashner does have the power-velocity that many managers look for in a closer. While the job would most likely go to Gregerson if Street is traded, it’s possible Cashner gets a shot at the role. If not, Cashner would at least pick up more holds following a Street trade.

With that in mind, it’s certainly possible the Padres are grooming Cashner to be their closer of the future. Street is unlikely to be with the team past 2012, and Cashner might be the ideal candidate to take on the role in the future.

Cashner would have more value in leagues if he transitions to the rotation in 2013. The Padres rotation may be young, but many members are unproven, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Cashner knocked one of the Padres starters out of the rotation next season. He comes with more risk in the rotation — as he’ll have to develop a third pitch and would be more susceptible to injuries — but he would be far more valuable in fantasy leagues.

Does that make Cashner a good late-round pick in keeper or dynasty leagues this season?

Cashner is definitely a risky choice this season. There is no guarantee that Cashner will pick up saves, and it’s pretty unclear whether he’ll be the first in line to receive save opportunities once Street is gone. There is also no guarantee the Padres will shift Cashner to the rotation in 2013. While they would be able to get more value out of Cashner as a starter, the Padres are likely aware of the risks involved with Cashner throwing more innings.

If Cashner does see an increase in his role, it’s going to be difficult to get him at such a low price. If you believe Cashner will be a starter in 2013, or is the Padres closer of the future, he might be worth a shot in the late rounds of your draft. If you are unsure, Cashner probably shouldn’t be on your radar unless your league counts holds.

Zambrano was a fantasy asset as recently as 2010, when he posted a 3.33 ERA and 11 wins while striking out 117 in just 129.2 IP. Of course the season wasn’t perfect, by any means. The sparkling ERA was well below Zambrano’s 3.71 FIP and his 1.45 WHIP was pretty weak. Not to mention the fact that you aren’t typically happy with less than 130 IP out of a starting pitcher. And 2011 was much worse – the ERA blew up to a rotund 4.82, the strike outs and wins dropped, and that was before Zambrano had a clubhouse explosion and threatened to retire.

Now, at 30 years old (he should be like 35, right? How is he only 30? I guess that is what happens when guys come up at 20), Zambrano gets a fresh start with a new team in Miami. As Jack Moore pointed out, Zambrano was the rare case of a player actually, literally quitting on his team. You often here analysts talk about a player needing a change of scenery, and Zambrano may have needed that change more than anyone.

Getting out of Chicago should provide more than just psychological help. Wrigley is a slight hitters park and extremely HR-friendly to left-handed hitters. The new park in Miami is a bit of an unknown, but based on the dimensions, it should be a pitchers park, and certainly less of a power-haven than Chicago’s North Side. In addition, the Marlins scored 29 fewer runs than the Cubs last year, but the addition of Jose Reyes and a bounce-back from Hanley Ramirez should provide improved run support compared to the Cubs for Zambrano and more opportunities to put up W’s.

None of this is to say that we are suddenly going to see Zambrano turn into an ace, but expecting a sub-4.00 ERA, with decent strike out totals (7.5 K/9?), and double-digit wins, is not out of the question at all. Zambrano will likely continue to suffer from a high WHIP, but he’ll be worth a flyer in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.

Volstad, of course, is making the opposite change. He is going from a pitchers’ park to a hitters’ park and will likely see limited run support (while the Marlins added Reyes, the Cubs lost Aramis Ramirez). Volstad, though, is only 25-years-old and his brutal 4.89 ERA was much worse than his 4.32 FIP (and 3.64 xFIP). The potential for a significant improvement is there.

The major issue for this move for Volstad is his HR rate. He has been unimpressive in this area for his career (1.11 HR/9 career 1.25 in 2011) and the move north will not help him at all. His road HR/9 was 1.50 in 2011, and now he is moving his home games from a park that suppresses HR to a park that can be awfully homer-happy, particularly for lefties, who were a real problem for Volstad in 2011.

Volstad makes sense for the Cubs – he is young, cheap, and has averaged more than 160 IP per season the last three years – but he is far less intriguing for a fantasy team. The impressive xFIP is going to lead a lot of statistically-minded fantasy players and analysts to see Volstad as a sleeper heading into 2011, and he should see an improvement in luck (an increase in LOB%, slight decrease in BABIP). But I am not buying. The change in luck couldeasily be counteracted by an increase in HR, and his ERA will likely come in above 4.00 again. He isn’t a big strike out guy and the wins likely won’t be particularly plentiful for the Cubs this year. Is he a sleeper? I suppose so – but I won’t be the one to wake him.

In this edition…

What the re-signing of Coco Crisp means for a former top prospect, why getting Jason Marquis is — gasp — a good move for the Twins and how the other side of the Carlos Quentin deal could play out.

1) Michael Taylor, A’s
With news of Coco Crisp reportedly re-signing with the A’s on a two-year, $14 million deal, Taylor’s 2012 just got a bit murkier. While the 26-year-old was in line for an Opening Day starting job after the A’s let outfielders Josh Willingham and David DeJesus walk away earlier in the offseason, the re-upping of Crisp means that Taylor will have to prove himself — perhaps in Triple-A again — rather than “earn” a starting gig by default.

Once a highly-regarded prospect, the former Philadelphia Phillies draft pick has battled injuries since joining Oakland from the Toronto Blue Jays in the deal for Brett Wallace. His power production saw the biggest hit as a result, most notably in 2010 when his slugging dropped to .392 down from .549 in 2009. But Taylor recovered enough to regain part of his prospecty goodness last year, hitting .272/.360/.456 at Triple-A. For a big guy (6’5″, 255), he also runs fairly well, swiping between 14 and 21 bases the past four seasons.

Considering his age and the A’s total lack of offense in recent years, it’s time for Taylor to get a legitimate opportunity to play in the big leagues. In other words, more than the 11-game audition he got at the end of last year. But with Crisp once again manning center for Oakland and newly-acquired Josh Reddick also entering the picture in right, that leaves only left field as a possibility for Taylor. And even there, he’ll have to compete with yet another recently-added outfielder in Collin Cowgill.

From a tools perspective, Taylor has the skillset to reach double digits in homers and steals, and he’s a better prospect than Cowgill, who profiles more as a fourth outfielder. But for now, it seems the best-case scenario has Taylor splitting time in the corners — perhaps his righty bat can platoon with the lefty-hitting Reddick? — and the worst case could mean Taylor spends part of a fourth straight season in Triple-A if he doesn’t have a strong spring. Either way, his future playing time has gotten squeezed in recent weeks, as the A’s have brought in three outfielders. Whether that’s a sign that the organization doesn’t have much faith in him is debatable, but one thing that isn’t is that Taylor has now become a dicey draft pick for owners in AL-only leagues next March.

2012 ETA: Taylor is ready to be in Oakland from the start of next season, and barring another move to further block his path, he should get that opportunity, either as a starting outfielder or at least a backup/bench bat.
2012 IMPACT: If he gets enough PT, Taylor could be a nice sleeper as an OF4 or 5 in deep AL leagues, even playing half his games at the pitcher-friendly Coliseum. But if not, he’s merely bench fodder.

2) Liam Hendriks, Twins
Hendriks is your prototypical Twins pitching prospect — throws strikes in the low-90s but struggles with being too contact-prone. The 22-year-old Australian was pushed to the bigs, perhaps a little too soon, when he debuted last September. He was called up after just 49.1 IPs above Double-A and posted a solid 16:6 K:BB in his first 23.1 MLB innings, but Hendriks also gave up 16 ERs and 29 hits, including 3 HRs.

With plenty of question marks in the Twins rotation heading into the offseason — can Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker stay healthy? Are Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing really starters? Is Carl Pavano actually the No. 1? — there seemed to be a chance that Hendriks could break camp with the team if he looked okay in spring. But the addition of Jason Marquis should put an end to that possibility.

While I don’t like Marquis much*, he should at least give the Twins some innings (and a horrendous ERA, WHIP and K rate in his first go-round on an AL team), which will allow the org to break in Hendriks a little slower. Not that Hendriks is going to be a great major league starter either, but he did throw 162.2 innings in 2011, which was easily a career-high for the formerly injury-prone righty. Easing off the peddle won’t hurt.

*A brief aside: Despite being a fellow native Long Islander with the same first name, Marquis is one of my least favorite pitchers in baseball because he’s never been all that good — his career WAR is just 12.2 over 12 seasons — and he’s pretty consistently been overrated — dude was an All-Star in 2009! — for being, what, an innings-eater? A hits-allower? No, I’ve got it: a runs-surrenderer!

When you check Hendriks’ career stats as a minor leaguer and see the spiffy 2.78 ERA, sexy 1.09 WHIP and smooth 1.4 BB/9, don’t be too upset that he’s not getting a shot to be the team’s No. 5 starter from Day One. Rather, it’s better for AL-only owners that the known quantity (read: Marquis) handles the job for a few months. That way, no one will get fooled into drafting him — unless you want to lose your league — and Hendriks can spend a little more time developing at Triple-A.

2012 ETA: Another half-season (or more) at Rochester would do Hendriks some good, so unless injuries once again ravage the Twins rotation — or Marquis is really that bad — expect to see him up after the All-Star break.
2012 IMPACT: There’s a good chance Hendriks’ stuff won’t translate well to the bigs right away, so until he proves he’s capable of being a spot starter, it’s probably best to leave him as a Watch Lister in AL leagues.

3) Simon Castro, White Sox
Familiar with the acronym TINSTAAPP? Well Castro might wind up proving that There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Once one of the top young players in the San Diego Padres’ system — if not all of baseball — the 23-year-old Dominican had a brutal 2011.

After looking very much the part of a No. 2 or 3 starter following his impressive 2009 (3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.1 K/9) and 2010 (3.28, 1.18, 7.3) campaigns, Castro started the season in Triple-A and proceeded to get tattooed: 29 earned runs, 37 hits and 18 walks in 25.2 IPs. Even a demotion back to San Antonio didn’t help much (4.33, 1.24, 7.4). And with the Padres’ acquisitions of young arms like Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland over the past year coinciding with Castro’s freefall, it’s easy to see why he became expendable in the Carlos Quentin trade.

There’s some good and some bad here. First it’s important to point out that Castro still has the makings of a mid-rotation starter, thanks mainly to his size (6’5″, 210) and stuff (mid-90s fastball, plus slider), and he could be a guy who just needs a change of scenery to get back on track. Of course, that scenery change also means that once he reaches the majors, he’ll be pitching in homer-haven U.S. Cellular and not pitcher’s-best-friend Petco. There’s also a more than fair chance that Castro becomes a bullpen arm, where his heater can hold up better and his lack of a third pitch won’t be as detrimental.

It will be interesting to see how the White Sox handle Castro. I’d imagine they’ll start him off in the rotation at Triple-A to see how he fares. If he adapts, renowned pitching coach Don Cooper might be able to turn him into a useful starter; if he falters, Chicago can convert him to relief full-time to recoup some value. Either way, GM Kenny Williams already hinted that Castro — along with Pedro Hernandez, a relief prospect acquired in the same trade — could make his debut at some point in 2012.

2012 ETA: If Castro shows he can be a starter, he’ll still need most of the year in the minors to prove it, and if he has to fall back on becoming a reliever, the transition alone will cost him some time, so expect a late-summer debut at the earliest.
2012 IMPACT: Castro isn’t likely to make any waves in fantasy next year as a starter, but if he does convert to the pen, he could earn a late-season audition for the 2013 setup job. Regardless, he’s no longer a premier option in keeper leagues.