Heading into the 2007 season, Florida’s Josh Johnson looked like an ace-in-waiting.

As a 22 year-old rookie in 2006, the 6-7 righty posted a 3.99 FIP in 24 starts and seven relief appearances. Johnson punched out 7.62 batters per nine innings, while issuing 3.9 BB/9. He showed sharp stuff, with a 92 MPH fastball (an average offering, with +0.03 runs/100 pitches), a wicked mid-80’s slider (+1.81) and a mid-80’s changeup (+1.70).

Johnson finished 4th in Rookie of the Year voting, looking poised to take over where A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett left off.

Sadly, Johnson never was healthy in ‘07. Battling elbow problems, Josh didn’t make his first big league start until mid-June. Some blame the balky elbow on then-manager Joe Girardi’s decision to send Johnson back out to the mound after a rain delay in September of ‘06. Whatever the cause, Johnson made just four starts before again succumbing to injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in early August.

After rehabbing, Johnson returned to the bump in July of 2008. He made 14 starts for the Fish, looking none the worse for wear. Johnson whiffed 7.94 batters per nine frames, lowering his walk rate to 2.78 BB/9 in the process. The 2002 fourth-rounder posted a 3.73 XFIP.

Johnson’s stuff was nastier than ever. His fastball crept up to an average of 93.5 MPH, with a +0.51 run value per 100 tosses. Josh had some problems pulling the string (-2.41 runs/100 with the changeup), but his biting mid-80’s slider stifled the opposition (+1.54). In less than a half-season’s worth of pitching, Johnson compiled two Wins Above Replacement.

In 2009, Johnson established himself as a full-fledged ace. Josh was somewhat fortunate in terms of home runs served up (0.6 HR/9, 7.5 HR/FB%), but he was an elite arm regardless. Throwing 209 innings, Johnson had a 3.42 XFIP that ranked 5th among National League starters. His K rate climbed to 8.22 per nine innings, with unusually sharp control for a power arm (2.5 BB/9).

As if the whiff rate and ability to paint the corners weren’t enough, Johnson induced grounders at a career-high 50.3% clip. He jumped ahead of hitters often, with the best first-pitch strike percentage of his big league tenure. Johnson got first-pitch contact or gained the 0-and-1 advantage on the batter 63 percent of the time (58.2% MLB average).

Johnson’s fastball found another gear this past season:

The 25 year-old’s cheddar sat at 95.1 MPH in 2009, a mark topped only by Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Verlander among starters.

Radar gun readings are nice, but results are better. Johnson’s fastball was among the best in the business, at +1.04 runs per 100 pitches (8th among starters). His 87 MPH slider remained sinister (+1.28), and Josh even succeeded on the rare occasion when he tossed a changeup (+2.51). Johnson was worth 5.5 WAR, a performance that would earn him near $25M on the free agent market.

26 in January, Johnson possesses every attribute desired in a premium starting pitcher. He misses bats, rarely gets behind in the count and keeps the ball on the ground. He won’t sneak up on anyone entering 2010, but Johnson is well worth a high-round draft pick. There’s nothing fluky about the performance of this Fish.

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Back at the All-Star break, I wrote a piece here asking Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP? I included a chart of all of the starting pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP.

The article ended with a promise to follow up and see which metric did better in predicting pitchers ERA in the second half of the season. Here is the table from the original article, with one additional column, this one the pitcher ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 34 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the xFIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA, coming closer than FIP on 20 of our pitchers. Furthermore, xFIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 24 players with low HR/FB rates and did a better job forecasting six of the 10 players with high HR/FB rates.

In the original article, I projected the two systems would be fairly close to 50-50, so xFIP slightly exceeded my expectations (59-41). But what really surprised me was how few players’ 2nd half ERA fell in between the range of their first half FIP and xFIP. For example, Pineiro had a 2.99 FIP and a 3.77 xFIP and his second half ERA was 3.83, outside the range of the two systems. Only six of the 34 pitchers had 2nd half ERAs inside the range. Both FIP and xFIP correctly forecasted three of those pitchers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 34 pitchers in this survey.

At an age when most young hurlers are hopping a Greyhound bus from Inland Empire to Rancho Cucamonga, Clayton Kershaw is starting pivotal playoff games for a Dodgers club seeking its first World Series title since, well, Clayton was born.

The fifth inning of Kershaw’s NLCS game one start highlighted that he is still in the nascent stages of his career. The 6-3 power lefty did walk 4.8 batters per nine innings during the regular season, with a 55.6 first-pitch strike percentage (58.2% MLB average).

Yet despite those occasional bumpy moments, Kershaw has proven capable of quashing opposing lineups. He punched out 9.74 hitters per nine frames, the 7th-highest rate among starters tossing 150+ innings.

Kershaw was extremely tough to hit on pitches within the zone, with an 83.3 Z-Contact% that ranked 6th among starters (the MLB average is 87.8%). And when batters were fortunate enough to make contact, they often popped the ball up, with a 13.5 infield/fly ball percentage (7th among starters).

Most fans know Kershaw for two things: searing fastball velocity and a slow curveball so dastardly, Vin Scully dubbed it Public Enemy Number One.

To be sure, both of those pitches are electric. Kershaw’s run values are a little inflated due to a very low HR/FB rate (4.1%)- some balls that probably should have left yard stayed in, boosting those linear values. But still, his 94 MPH gas was worth +1.48 runs per 100 pitches (third best in baseball). That 73 MPH yellow hammer was similarly effective, with a +1.54 mark. Clayton would rather not talk about his seldom-used changeup, though (-1.78).

But did you know that, since June, Kershaw has integrated yet another quality breaking pitch into his arsenal? Take a look at his pitch usage by month:

April

Fastball (FB) 79%, Curveball (CB) 15%, Changeup (CH) 6%

May

FB 73%, CB 20%, CH 7%

June

FB 72%, Slider (SL) 8%, CB 15%, CH 5%

July

FB 69%, SL 10%, CB 18%, CH 3%

August

FB 67%, SL 11%, CB 20%, CH 2%

September/October

FB 72%, SL 16%, CB 11%, CH 1%

Gradually, Kershaw has added more 81 MPH sliders into the mix. The pitch is fascinating, in terms of how it moves in relation to his world famous curveball. Looking at Clayton’s Pitch F/X data, we see that his new toy breaks away from lefties (in to righties) an average of 4.8 inches. Kershaw’s curveball has similar horizontal movement, breaking away from southpaws 4.1 inches. That curve, of course, has plenty of vertical “drop”, falling 6.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin.

Kershaw’s slider creates an interesting dynamic for hitters. They see a big, bending breaker coming toward the plate, but which is it? As an example of how difficult finding that answer might be, here are Kershaw’s release and movement charts from his 10/3 start against the Rockies (his last regular-season start):

Release Point:

Movement:

In this start, Kershaw’s release gave away nothing to the opposition. And, you can see how much the slider and curve mirror each other in terms of horizontal break. Looking at this another way, here’s Clayton’s flight path chart for October, courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool:

This is a bird’s-eye view of Kershaw’s pitches as they head toward home plate. The flight path of the slider and the curve overlap. Same release point. Same flight path. The poor batter probably won’t know what’s coming until it’s too late.

Overall, Kershaw’s slider was worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches during the regular season. And, as Somers’ amazing tool shows, the pitch has become an even bigger part of Clayton’s arsenal in the playoffs. Kershaw has gone to the slider 27 percent of the time in the NLDS and NLCS, throwing it for a strike almost 65 percent of the time.

I guess the only question left is, what will Vin Scully call this vicious breaking ball?

On Tuesday evening, Detroit Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello will look to tame the Twins and pitch his club into a divisional series matchup against the leviathan otherwise known as the New York Yankees. Much has been written about the 20 year-old’s ascension from Seton Hall Prep to the Motor City in the blink of an eye. Just how has Porcello combated unrelenting American League line-ups as a 20 year-old? Let’s take a look.

Porcello, of course, spent very little time on the farm. The highly-touted 6-5 starter came with all the scouting accolades, but teams selecting at the top of the 2007 amateur draft shied away. The Tigers, at pick number 27, finally came calling, gambling that an agreement could be reached. Detroit eventually kept Porcello from becoming a North Carolina Tar Heel, dishing out a cool $3.58M bonus.

Making his pro debut in 2008, Porcello tossed 125 frames for Lakeland of the High-A Florida State League. In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America noted that Rick’s best offering was “a heavy two-seamer that averages 92 MPH and ranges up to 95, with boring action in on the hands of right handers.” That pitch was on full display in the FSL, as Porcello posted a 64.1% groundball rate. He also did a nice job of painting the black (2.38 BB/9), though his strikeout rate was less than anticipated for a premium prospect (5.18 K/9).

Baseball America offered some clues as to why that whiff rate was modest. He “shelved his slider to focus on his curveball”, and the Tigers “placed him on a 75-pitch limit for each start.”

In 2009, Porcello shot straight to the majors. Heading into his tilt with the Twins, Rick has racked up 165 frames in his rookie campaign. He has again burned worms at an impressive clip, inducing a grounder 54.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate in the A.L., and places fifth among all starters. Porcello has been stingy with the walks as well, issuing 2.73 BB/9.

In most cases, there’s a trade-off between grounders and punch outs; more of one usually entails less of the other. That has certainly been the story with Porcello. He has whiffed just 4.42 batters per nine frames, fourth-lowest among starters. Only Joel Pineiro, Nick Blackburn and John Lannan have fooled fewer batters on a per-inning basis.

The reason for the lack of swings and misses becomes apparent when one looks at Porcello’s pitch usage. Rick has relied upon a 91 MPH sinker about 77 percent of the time. True to the scouting reports, that pitch has excellent tailing action in on the hands of righty batters and is responsible for the hefty groundball rate.

But, as Harry Pavlidis showed earlier this summer, that sinker gets very few whiffs. Still, Porcello’s boring two-seamer has been worth +0.81 runs per 100 pitches this season.

Porcello does feature three other pitches: an 81 MPH slider (used about five percent of the time), 77 MPH curveball (eight percent) and an 81 MPH changeup (ten percent). None of those offerings are instilling much fear in opposing batters, though. Porcello’s slider comes in at -1.17 runs/100, with the curve worth -2.53 per 100 tosses. He hasn’t pulled the string especially well, either (-0.98).

Armed with one plus pitch and a three other seldom-used offerings in their nascent stages of development, Porcello has often had the ball put in play against him. His overall contact rate is 84.7% (80.5% MLB average), with opponents putting the bat on the ball 91 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone (87.8% MLB average).

It’s not especially surprising that Porcello, using a sinker nearly four out of five pitches, has generated so few K’s. As Dave Allen explained back in August, there is a positive relationship between the vertical movement of a fastball and its whiff rate (the higher in the zone, the more whiffs generated; the lower in the zone, the fewer whiffs gotten).

There is also an inverse relationship between vertical movement and groundball rate. In other words, a fastball thrown high in the strike zone is likely to generate more swings and misses, while generating fewer groundballs. By contrast, a fastball like Porcello’s, buried at the batter’s knees low in the zone, is going to garner a higher groundball rate but few whiffs.

At an age where most pitching prospects are in A-Ball attempting to refine their secondary stuff, Porcello has managed to keep his head above water in the DH league. But his FIP (4.81) is more indicative of his performance than his ERA (4.04). Porcello obviously has plenty of development time left, though, and has a strong base of skills to build upon.

With strong groundball tendencies and quality control, Rick doesn’t have to post obscene K rates to be a successful starter. Will Porcello become a different sort of pitcher in the years to come, mixing in more breaking balls and changeups? That would likely lead to more strikeouts, but may come at the expense of some of those grounders.

That’s a question for another day, though. For now, Porcello will look to get Twins batters to chop that sinker into the dirt often enough to clinch a playoff berth.

Sunday is the last scheduled day of the regular season and congratulations if you are still in contention for a money spot and can pick up a guy going in Game 162. Here are the pitchers going Sunday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Cincinnati against Bailey. Had his longest outing since 6/5 when he went 5 IP, gave up 2 ER and picked up the win 9/30 versus the Cubs. However, he fanned only one. For the season Karstens has a 4.26 K/9 but has just 2 Ks in his last five outings, covering 10.2 IP.

Homer Bailey (49%) – Has a home start versus Karstens and the Pirates. In his last eight games he is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 46 Ks in 52.1 IP. Bailey is 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA in the Great American Ball Park this year and is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games versus Pittsburgh.

Wilton Lopez (1%) – Has a road start in New York against Figueroa. In his first start of the season Lopez allowed 5 ER in 3.2 IP against the Phillies and saw his ERA rise to 9.42 for the season.

Nelson Figueroa (6%) – Has a home start versus Lopez and the Astros. Figueroa lost his fifth straight game in his last outing but deserved a better fate. as he allowed 2 ER in 6 IP and had 5 Ks. It was his second straight loss with a Quality Start. Figueroa is 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA this season in Citi Field. He has yet to face the Astros this season.

J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a road start in Atlanta against Hudson. In his last start, Martin allowed 3 ER in 6 IP but got a no-decision. He is 3-1 with a 4.62 ERA in his last seven starts. Martin is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in road games this season but he has yet to face the Braves in 2009.

Jeremy Guthrie (28%) – Has a home start versus Romero and the Blue Jays. Despite pitching a Quality Start (7 IP, 3 ER) in his last outing, Guthrie dropped his fourth straight decision. This year he is 5-8 with a 4.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Guthrie is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA in three games against Toronto this season.

Tomo Ohka (0%) – Has a road start in Boston against Buchholz. Ohka pitches for the first time since 9/19 and makes his first start since 7/18. He is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA in 28.2 road innings this year. Ohka has not pitched against the Red Sox in 2009.

Wade Davis (36%) – Has a home start versus Barnett and the Yankees. Davis picked up his second win of the season in his last outing, when he hurled 7 IP and gave up 1 ER versus the Orioles. He has a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 IP at Tropicana Field this year but Davis has yet to face New York.

Luke Hochevar (24%) – Has a road start in Minnesota against Pavano. In his last six games, Hochevar is 1-5 with an 8.47 ERA. He is 3-7 with a 7.53 ERA in road starts this year. However, in two starts versus the Twins, Hochevar is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Pineiro. In his last five starts, Suppan is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA in road starts in 2009. Suppan is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four games against the Cardinals this season.

Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start in Chicago against Dempster. In his last eight games, Davis is 1-4 with a 6.20 ERA, with 24 BB and 8 HR in 45 IP. He is 3-7 with a 4.58 ERA in road games this year. Earlier this season, Davis pitched seven socreless innings against the Cubs, fanned seven and picked up the win.

Gio Gonzalez (28%) – Has a home start versus Saunders and the Angels. In his last nine starts, Gonzalez is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA but with 54 Ks in 47 IP. He is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA this season at McAfee Coliseum. Gonzalez 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts against the Angels.

Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start versus Sanchez and the Giants. Made his first start in the majors 9/29 against the Dodgers and went 5 IP with 1 ER but got a no-decision. Ramos hit 94 with his fastball versus Los Angeles.

Vicente Padilla (32%) – Has a home start versus Marquis and the Rockies. Padilla returns to the rotation after making a relief appearance 9/30 versus the Padres. In seven games since joining the Dodgers, he is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA with 28 Ks in 34.1 IP. Padilla has a 4.35 ERA in two games this year in Dodger Stadium and is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA this season against Colorado.

Here on Saturday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Saturday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Daniel Cabrera (2%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Wells. Cabrera does not have the fastball he once had, although he can still reach the mid-90s. However, the walks are just as bad as they have always been. He is averaging 7.63 BB/9 this year. As if that was not bad enough, he has a .321 BABIP and a 58 percent strand rate.

Yorman Bazardo (1%) – Has a road start in New York versus Misch. In five games as a starter, Bazardo is 1-2 with a 9.43 ERA. He can hit the mid-90s with his fastball, but like Cabrera he has averaged more walks (6.26) than strikeouts (5.60) per nine innings this year. Bazardo has a 1.44 GB/FB ratio but a 25.8 LD%. It all adds up to a pitcher who has allowed 25 ER in 27.1 IP in the majors this season.

Pat Misch (3%) – Has a home start versus Bazardo and the Astros. After three straight poor outings, the Mets threatened to remove Misch from the rotation. But he got another chance and hurled a complete game shutout in his last start. Misch is 0-3 with an 8.57 ERA in Citi Field but has not faced Houston this season.

David Bush (22%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Lohse. In his last seven starts, Bush is 2-5 with an 8.10 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 6.79 ERA in road games this year. Against the Cardinals Bush is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA and a 1.935 WHIP.

Kyle Lohse (41%) – Has a home start versus Bush and the Brewers. In his last eight games, Lohse is 2-3 with a 6.48 ERA. This year he is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA in Busch Stadium. In two appearances versus Milwaukee, Lohse is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA.

Dana Eveland (5%) – Has a home game versus Kazmir and the Angels. In 12 IP since being recalled from the minors, Eveland is 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA. Overall, he is 2-0 with a 4.60 ERA in McAfee Coliseum. In two games this year versus the Angels, Eveland has no record but a 7.71 ERA.

Anibal Sanchez (35%) – Has a road game in Philadelphia against Hamels. Sanchez is 1-2 in his last five games but he has a 2.51 ERA in that stretch, with 27 Ks in 28.2 IP. This season he has a 2-5 record with a 4.80 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Phillies, Sanchez pitched eight scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

Scott Richmond (35%) – Has a road game in Baltimore against Hendrickson. In his last 10 games, Richmond is 2-5 with an 8.21 ERA. This year he is 4-5 with a 5.99 ERA in road games. But against the Orioles, Richmond is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA this season.

Mark Hendrickson (2%) – Has a home start versus Richmond and the Blue Jays. Hendrickson started the first seven games of the season and then moved to the bullpen in mid-May. He returned to the rotation in mid-September and has made three straight starts, in which he is 0-1 with a 4.11 ERA. In that span, Hendrickson has 3 Ks and 5 HR in 15.1 IP. He is 3-2 with a 5.73 ERA at Camden Yards this year. In four games against Toronto, Hendrickson is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA.

Freddy Garcia (14%) – Has a road game in Detroit against Figaro. Garcia has pitched at least six innings in each of his last seven games. In his last outing against the Tigers, he allowed 7 ER in 6.1 IP on 9/26.

Alfredo Figaro (1%) – Has a home start versus Garcia and the White Sox. Figaro had two starts for Detroit in the middle of the season and two relief appearces since being recalled in mid-September. He can dial it up in the mid-90s, which has led to an 8.04 K/9 this season for Detroit. But a 4.60 BB/9 combined with a .374 BABIP has made things tough for the rookie from the Dominican Republic.

Aaron Laffey (28%) – Has a road start in Boston against Beckett. Laffey has lost five consecutive starts and has a 5.46 ERA in that stretch. In 29.2 IP, he has a 2.023 WHIP and 9 Ks. He is 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA in road games this year and in 3 IP versus the Red Sox has not allowed an earned run.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (43%) – Has a home start versus Hunter and the Rangers. In his last 13 games, Rowland-Smith has eight Quality Starts. He is 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA at Safeco Field but has not faced Texas this season.

Wade LeBlanc (16%) – Has a home start versus Cain and the Giants. In his last five games, LeBlanc is 2-0 with a 2.48, with four of those starts coming on the road. In two games at Petco, LeBlanc has no record and a 4.00 ERA. He allowed 2 ER in 7 IP and picked up the win in his only outing against San Francisco this season.

Here on Thursday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Friday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Billy Buckner (4%) – Has a road start in Chicago against Gorzelanny. In his last four starts Buckner is 1-0 with a 3.33 ERA with 22 Ks in 24.1 IP. He is 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA in road starts this year but has not faced the Cubs this season.

Tom Gorzelanny (19%) – Has a home start versus Buckner and the Diamondbacks. Since joining the Cubs, Gorzelanny is 4-1 with a 4.58 ERA with 37 Ks in 35.1 IP. He is 2-0 with a 5.11 ERA in Wrigley Field but has not faced Arizona this season.

David Purcey (8%) – Has a road start in Baltimore against Berken. Since being recalled from Triple-A in mid-September, Purcey has a 2.89 ERA in 18.2 IP. He has allowed just 1 HR in that stretch and has 12 Ks. He faced Baltimore on 9/21 and picked up the win, as he allowed just 1 ER in 7.2 IP.

Jason Berken (1%) – Has a home start versus Purcey and the Blue Jays. In his last seven starts, Berken is 3-1 with a 6.03 ERA. He is 3-7 with a 5.76 ERA in Camden Yards and is 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA against Toronto this season.

Rick VandenHurk (9%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia against Blanton. VandenHurk has not picked up a decision in his last four outings, but has a 3.43 ERA with 14 Ks in 21 IP in that span. He is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in road games this year and allowed 4 ER in 6 IP in his only outing versus the Phillies this season.

Jeremy Sowers (6%) – Has a road start in Boston against Matsuzaka. Sowers started the season 2-7 with a 5.77 ERA but since then has gone 4-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 62.2 IP. Unfortunately, he has 20 Ks and 25 BBs in that stretch. Sowers is 3-5 with a 5.63 ERA in road games this season. In his one game against the Red Sox, he allowed 7 ER in 5 IP and took the loss.

Daniel McCutchen (4%) – Has a road start in Cincinnati against Maloney. McCutchen has allowed 5 HR in 30 IP in the majors after allowing 10 HR in 142.2 IP in Triple-A. His last outing against the Dodgers was the first game in the majors in which he did not surrender a gopher ball. The Reds have hit 91 of their 155 HR at the Great American Ball Park.

Matt Maloney (2%) – Has a home start versus McCutchen and the Pirates. After losing his first four decisions in the majors, Maloney has reeled off back-to-back wins, allowing 4 ER in 12 IP. He has a 1-2 record with a 5.96 ERA in four home starts and has yet to face the Pirates this season.

John Maine (37%) – Has a home start versus Rodriguez and the Astros. Maine has made three starts since returning from the disabled list and was rocked in his last outing, as he allowed 7 ER in 4.2 IP versus the Marlins. He is 5-1 with a 2.12 ERA at Citi Field this season but has not faced Houston this year.

Livan Hernandez (14%) – Has a road start in Atlanta against Lowe. Since joining the Nationals, Hernandez is 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA in seven games. However, he has five Quality Starts in that span. In his other two outings he allowed 14 ER in 8.2 IP. Hernandez is -2 with a 5.20 ERA in Nationals Park this season and is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two games versus the Braves.

Lenny DiNardo (0%) – Has a road start in Minnesota against Manship. In his last outing on 9/26, DiNardo also faced the Twins and gave up 7 R (3 ER) in 5 IP and took the loss. In four games this season, DiNardo has a 2.72 GB/FB ratio but has a .401 BABIP and a 57.9 percent strand rate.

Jeff Manship (2%) – Has a home start versus DiNardo and the Royals. Manship returns to the rotation this week after allowing 1 ER in 3.2 IP as a reliever last week in Kansas City. He also fanned five batters in that 9/27 outing. In four games as a starter, Manship has 0-1 record with a 6.89 ERA.

Braden Looper (32%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Wainwright. In his last eight games, Looper is 3-1 with a 5.32 ERA. He has allowed 9 HR in 45.2 IP in that span. Looper has a 1.86 HR/9 this season and has a 16.3 percent HR/FB ratio, the second highest mark among qualified hurlers. He has a 9-3 record with a 5.25 ERA in road starts this season. Looper is 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals this year, the team he pitched for the previous three seasons.

Gio Gonzalez (28%) – Has a home start versus Weaver and the Angels. The last four starts of the year have been a microcosm of Gonzalez’ season, with two Quality Starts and two games he did not get out of the fourth inning. He is 2-4 with a 6.85 ERA at McAfee Coliseum and in his one start versus the Angels this year, Gonzalez hurled 6.1 scoreless innings with 7 Ks.

Kevin Correia (44%) – Has a home start versus Zito and the Giants. In his last six games, Correia is 4-0 with a 1.90 ERA, with 33 Ks in 42.1 IP. And four of those starts came on the road. In Petco Park, Correia is 4-5 with a 3.63 ERA this year. In three games against the Giants, he is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA.

Brandon McCarthy (23%) – Has a road start in Seattle against Snell. In his last four starts, McCarthy is 1-2 with a 4.03 ERA. He is 3-3 with a 5.79 ERA in road games this season and he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP in a no-decision earlier this season versus the Mariners.

Ian Snell (25%) – Has a home start versus McCarthy and the Rangers. Since joining the Mariners, Snell is 5-2 with a 4.17 ERA in 11 games. Those numbers are even better in his last eight outings, in which he has a 2.80 ERA. Walks are still a problem for Snell. Even in his last eight games, he has permitted 24 BBs in 45 IP. For the year he has a 5.18 BB/9 mark.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Thursday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Kip Wells (1%) – Has a home start against Carpenter and St. Louis. After being designated for assignment earlier this year by the Nationals, Wells hooked up with the Reds. He pitched three games out of the bullpen and then moved into the rotation for his last six outings. Wells is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP in that span. He’s appeared in four games this year in Great American Ball Park, where he is 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA. Wells has made two relief appearances versus the Cardinals and has allowed 1 ER in 3.2 IP.

Nate Robertson (4%) – Has a home start against Baker and the Twins. After spending most of the season in the bullpen, Robertson has made three straight starts for the Tigers. He is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in that span, with 11 BB and 8 Ks in 12 IP. Robertson has a 3.70 home ERA this season and has 6 IP and 2 ER against the Twins with one win this year.

Manny Parra (28%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Cook. After starting the season 3-8, Parra is 8-2 with a 4.95 ERA in his last 13 starts. This year he is 6-7 with a 6.87 ERA in road starts. Parra has yet to pitch this season in Coors Field.

Garrett Mock (5%) – Has a road start in Atlanta versus Hanson. Mock has dropped his last five decisions and has a 7.03 ERA and has a 1.656 WHIP in his last six games. He gave up 4 ER in 5 IP 9/26 versus the Braves and is 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA versus them this season. Overall, Mock is 2-3 with a 4.87 ERA in road games this season.

Felipe Paulino (3%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Lee. Paulino has lost seven consecutive decisions and has a 7.71 ERA in his last 10 games. He is 1-6 with an 8.37 ERA in road games this year and has yet to face the Phillies this season.

Chris Waters (0%) – Has a road start in Tampa versus Garza. Waters was 9-7 in Triple-A this season before getting the call to Baltimore. He has made four relief appearances for the Orioles and this will be the 28-year old’s first start of the season after making 11 in 2008. The lefty is a fastball/slider pitcher.

Carlos Carrasco (11%) – Has a road start in Boston versus Lester. Carrasco was part of the package received from Philadelphia in the Lee trade. He was 5-1 in Triple-A for Columbus after the deal with a 3.19 ERA. Carrasco has made four starts for Cleveland and has given up four or more earned runs in each of them. On the plus side, Carrasco has a 2.19 GB/FB mark. However, when batters get the ball in the air, they hit it out of the park 37.5 percent of the time.

Paul Maholm (43%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Samardzija. In his last seven starts, Maholm is 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA and he has allowed just 2 HR in 46.2 IP. Maholm is 4-6 with a 5.54 ERA in road games this season. In his only game against the Cubs, he allowed 7 ER in 4 IP but came away with a no-decision.

Jeff Samardzija (6%) – Has a home start against Maholm and the Pirates. A candidate for the rotation in Spring Training, Samardzija made his second start of the season in his last outing, in which he gave up 3 ER (on 2 HR) in 5 IP and took the loss. The gopher ball has been a problem for Samardzija this season but it has been more pronounced on the road. He has allowed 2 HR in 15.2 IP at Wrigley but 5 HR in 19 IP on the road.

Doug Fister (10%) – Has a home start against Anderson and the A’s. After a strong showing at the start of his major league career, Fister is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-2 with a 4.31 ERA in home starts this season. Fister has faced Oakland once this season and allowed 1 ER in 5 IP and got a no-decision.