Rajai Davis was enjoying mixed results this season as the Blue Jays’ center fielder before he endured a season-ending hamstring injury. He didn’t hit for average (0.238) or hit home runs (1), but he did manage to steal quite a few bases (34 in 338 PA). Taking into account how rarely he was on base (0.282 OBA), he was historically active on the basepaths.

To get an idea of how often he attempted to steal, I took the number of stolen base attempts (SB+CS) divided by the number of times he was on first (BB+1B+HBP). Not every time a player is on first do they actually have an opportunity to steal, but this combination does give a general idea of the number of chances vs. attempts. Here are the top players from 2011 (min 300 PA):

Rajai Davis = 70%
Jason Bourgeois = 54%
Dee Gordon = 48%
Eric Young = 44%

Davis was by far the leader in 2011.

His high number wasn’t due to being a pinch runner, either. Looking at Baseball-Reference.com, the 31-year-old was in only 13 games as a substitute with eight plate appearances and four stolen bases.

To put the numbers into perspective, here are the top five players since 1950 (min 300 PA):

Rickey Henderson (1982): 77%
Ron LeFlore (1980): 72%
Vince Coleman (1985): 71%
Rajai Davis (2011): 70%
Otis Nixon (1988): 70%

So what does Davis’ place in history mean for 2012? Probably not much if he isn’t playing. He may see his batting average increase to his career level (0.273), but Toronto’s outfield is crowded. The Blue Jays have their 2011 outfield mostly set with Thames, Rasmus and Bautista. Talk from the team implies that Davis may see some time in LF (Bautista at DH?).

What I would do with Davis in 2012 drafts:

1. Only draft him in a league with daily roster settings. He probably won’t get enough playing time for a league that uses weekly rosters.
2. Watch for the days he is playing and insert him if one of your other players has a rough matchup.
3. While not a huge split, the right-hander has done historically better vs LHP (0.292/0.350/0.411) than RHP (0.264/0.304/0.360). Use him against lefties if you can.

I would look to utilize him strictly as a platoon player to inflate your stolen base numbers. Take a late round flier on him and get some extra steals when the situation warrants it.

Our own Erik Hahmann pointed out some great stolen-base options earlier this week, but there are enough teams desperate for stolen bases out there that we can try a different tact here. Did you know that the easiest team to steal on is the Boston Red Sox? And the hardest is in Arizona? And that the Red Sox have allowed more than twice as many stolen bases as the Diamondbacks?

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With the season winding down the type of fantasy advice people look for changes. You’re not looking to trade for an under the radar player or pick a diamond in the rough from the waiver wire. If you’re team is still in contention it’s likely you’re looking for specific stats to stream in hopes of padding your lead or catching up to your opponent.

Today we’re focusing on steals and looking at three readily available players that can help you Usain Bolt the competition.

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Whether it’s beefing up for your head to head playoffs or just looking to boost yourself in a particular category as your roto season winds down, there are still guys out there on your waiver wire that can be of service to you if you dig deep enough.  We usually differentiate here between regular waiver wire pieces and deep league waiver wire pieces based on ownership percentages, but at this stage of the game, the depth of your league shouldn’t matter much.  If a guy can help, he can help.  Here’s two to consider…

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At this stage of the game, every single point matters. So much so, in fact, that the numbers become more important than the names. By that, I mean, it’s not as much about the players in your lineup as it is about the statistics on your league’s standings page.

Find the categories that are most essential to your chances at gaining ground and focus on adding players who will address those areas. This applies more to rotisserie leagues than head-to-head ones (since matchups and scoring in the latter change each week), but the point remains the same: Numbers over names.

With that in mind, here are three American League outfielders owned in less than 50% of leagues, each of whom has the ability to help your team in a specific category down the stretch.

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At the MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal and cash considerations to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Alex Castellanos.  Tommy Rancel, over in the FanGraphs section, covered the deal when it happened, so now here at RotoGraphs, we’re going to discuss the fantasy ramifications. Read the rest of this entry »

As you’re tweaking your lineup here and there, looking for a way to steal some points from your opponents, check out how adding some stolen bases to your squad can help you out.  It always seems to be a very movable category in roto leagues and an often disregarded category in head to head.  Adding an extra stolen base guy can give you a nice cheap way to to boost you in the category while also helping you out in areas like runs scored and even batting average.  Here’s a pair of speedsters that seem to be available in plenty of leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, we examined the fantasy fallout of Manny Ramirez’s abrupt retirement and what it meant for his current-turned-former Rays teammates. This time, let’s look at how another erstwhile big-time AL stud might impact his fellow outfield mates’ fantasy production. Except in this case, it’s a return.

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A lot can change just a few days into the season. Like the 4-0 Orioles suddenly becoming World Series favorites! But surprising starts, unforeseen injuries and unexpected roster-makers will mess with even the best laid plans. Let’s hit on all three below, in the form of AL outfielders.

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With our NL Outfielder rankings published today I thought I’d take a look at three speedsters who are in three distinctly different tiers.

Let’s start from the top and take a look at Shane Victorino. The Flyin Hawaiian’s 2010 campaign was a mixed bag. Yes his home runs, RBI, and stolen bases were improved over 2009, but his batting average, on base percentage, hits, and runs were way down. The increase in power and decrease average and OBP look to be caused by the spike in Victorino’s fly ball rate. In 2009 it was 33.2 percent while in 2010 it jumped to 37.6 percent. That lead to a dip in his line drive percentage – from 21.7 percent in 2009 to 17.4 percent last year. The more fly balls Victorino hits the more outs he’s going to generate. He’s not a power hitter, so while the increase in home runs is nice, his value lies in his ability to hit for average, score runs, and steal bases. His BABIP was also low last season (.273), but that too be tied to the increase of fly balls hit. The loss of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley‘s injury concerns may have a negative impact on Victorino’s run totals – it’s going to be harder for him to get back to scoring 100 runs a season.  If Victorino can get back to slapping the ball around the field instead of popping it up for outs, he has a good chance of regaining fantasy value in the categories you rely on him most.

Next on our list are two players similar enough that I’m going to lump them together for the sake of this post, even though their skill sets are just different enough to separate them in our tiers. Michael Bourn and Nyjer Morgan derive their fantasy value entirely from their speed. If they didn’t steal 30+ bases a year there’s no way in the world they’d be owned in any league, ever. It just so happens that Bourn has stolen 61 and 52 bases over the past two seasons, making him an extremely valuable asset. He’s one of the few players who can win you an entire category for you in any given week. A strikeout rate under 20 percent would be a welcomed addition to Bourn’s game as it would get him on base to steal more, but that’s not likely to happen. As long as he keeps his ground ball rate in the high 50 percent range he’ll be able to use his speed to his advantage, keeping his average in a respectable range (career .263) in the process.

Nyjer Morgan is in a tier below Bourn because his stolen base totals aren’t quite as high and his behavioral issues are a concern. People may look at his .253 average last season and not think Morgan is worth much as a draft pick. A closer look reveals he was actually pretty unlucky last season, even though his BABIP was a respectable .304. It was no lower than .355 in his three seasons prior. Unlike Victorino, his batted ball rates were pretty much in line with his career norms so there isn’t a noticeable reason for the decline in BABIP. Fantasy owners can expect a regression upward, back to roughly .300 batting average this season. A .290-.300 hitter with 30+ steals isn’t easy to find. If Morgan can keep himself out of trouble he can be an asset in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.