To get an idea of how often he attempted to steal, I took the number of stolen base attempts (SB+CS) divided by the number of times he was on first (BB+1B+HBP). Not every time a player is on first do they actually have an opportunity to steal, but this combination does give a general idea of the number of chances vs. attempts. Here are the top players from 2011 (min 300 PA):

Rajai Davis = 70%
Jason Bourgeois = 54%
Dee Gordon = 48%
Eric Young = 44%

Davis was by far the leader in 2011.

His high number wasn’t due to being a pinch runner, either. Looking at Baseball-Reference.com, the 31-year-old was in only 13 games as a substitute with eight plate appearances and four stolen bases.

To put the numbers into perspective, here are the top five players since 1950 (min 300 PA):

Rickey Henderson (1982): 77%
Ron LeFlore (1980): 72%
Vince Coleman (1985): 71%
Rajai Davis (2011): 70%
Otis Nixon (1988): 70%

So what does Davis’ place in history mean for 2012? Probably not much if he isn’t playing. He may see his batting average increase to his career level (0.273), but Toronto’s outfield is crowded. The Blue Jays have their 2011 outfield mostly set with Thames, Rasmus and Bautista. Talk from the team implies that Davis may see some time in LF (Bautista at DH?).

What I would do with Davis in 2012 drafts:

1. Only draft him in a league with daily roster settings. He probably won’t get enough playing time for a league that uses weekly rosters.
2. Watch for the days he is playing and insert him if one of your other players has a rough matchup.
3. While not a huge split, the right-hander has done historically better vs LHP (0.292/0.350/0.411) than RHP (0.264/0.304/0.360). Use him against lefties if you can.

I would look to utilize him strictly as a platoon player to inflate your stolen base numbers. Take a late round flier on him and get some extra steals when the situation warrants it.

Since the Red Sox have given up almost a stolen base per game, they seem ripe for stolen base streamers. They’ve got the Orioles twice, so it’s too bad the Orioles steal so rarely. Well, Robert Andino (6% owned) has jacked 11 bags and is probably a free agent in your league, so there’s that. Matt Angle (0% owned) and Nolan Reimold (6% owned) are fourth and fifth on the team with nine and six stolen bases respectively, so it’s too bad Adam Jones is getting back into games again. Well, Reimold is an option at least.

Second on the list, the Padres, give up about .87 steals per game. They’ve got the Dodgers and then the Cubs. Dee Gordon (18% owned) is looking like a tasty pickup even if he won’t give you any power at all. Seriously, have you seen the dude? Tony Gwynn Jr might be your man in deeper leagues! Thin Gwynn is only owned in 1% of leagues, but wait until he gets the go-ahead to play again. If someone dropped Jamey Carroll (15% owned), he’s playing and looking for his 15th RBI and 11th stolen base. On the Cubs, there’s always Tony Campana (0% owned), as Erik pointed out. Dude’s short and fast.

If you want to go by caught stealing percentage instead of volume, Houston and Florida would be your chosen opponents. Houston has Colorado and St. Louis coming up, but it would take a lot to get St. Louis stealing bases. Tyler Greene (0% owned) leads the team… with 10. He’s not getting much time, though. If Dexter Fowler is out there (32% owned), he’s your guy. Mark Ellis (5% owned) is the deep league play for his series against the Astros. Florida gets Washington for the final series. Roger Bernadina is getting sparse play since he came back, but he’s owned in 1% of leagues and will probably start against some righties, so the shark is your deep leaguer. Danny Espinosa (44% owned) has some speed and has been good against lefties, and his double-play partner Ian Desmond (60% owned) also has speed, has been better in September, and likes righties so far this year. Platoon, maybe.

One last wrinkle! Some pitchers are especially bad against speedsters. John Lackey is the king of the stolen base allowed this year (33 stolen bases) at least when you consider his team behind him as well. He might get a start against the Yankees on the 25th. Ted Lilly has allowed the same amount of stolen bases, so his start on Friday against the Padres might produce a streamer stealer for you. According to Brian Cartwright, Trevor Cahill and Derek Lowe also figure into the top five if you consider only steals of second base.

The point is: whether you focus on the pitcher or the catcher, or use both leaderboards to find your ideal combination, the resources are there for you. Consider streaming for stolen bases if they are all that stands between you and a championship.

Today we’re focusing on steals and looking at three readily available players that can help you Usain Bolt the competition.

Jason Bourgeois (31 SB, 6% owned)

He has just 245 plate appearances this season but has already racked up 31 stolen bases. In a lost season for the Astros he’s been one of the lone bright spots. Finally fully healthy, Bourgeois is getting every day playing time taking over Michael Bourn’s former post in centerfield. He doesn’t walk very much (4.1%), but he also doesn’t strike out (9.8%). Over his last six games he has five steals. It’s clear that when he gets on base his first instinct is to run. He has a pretty big platoon split with a .402 wOBA vs LHP and .228 vs RHP so that’s something to be mindful of. Also, the Astros finish against the Reds, Rockies and Cardinals, with the former two teams ranking in the top six in caught stealing percentage. Still, if you absolutely need to stream some steals Bourgeois looks to be your best bet.

Ben Revere (32 SB, 5%)

The main reason I say Bourgeois is the best bet for streaming steals is because of Revere’s .306 on base percentage. In 190 more plate appearances than Bourgeois he has one more stolen base. He’s actually been a pretty terrible hitter overall – a 72 wRC+ isn’t good – but he’s getting every day reps because the Twins aren’t going anywhere and have a lot of faith in their rookie centerfielder. He’s hit better in September than he has the past two months, putting up a .338 OBP and stealing seven bases in 14 games. There are no massive platoon splits, especially OBP wise, with Revere so you’re safe streaming him against any pitcher. Over the past 30 days no player has more steals than Revere’s 10.

Tony Campana (22 SB, 0%)

He has seven steals over the past 30 days and little else. In 145 plate appearances he’s up to 22 steals and only twice has he been caught. He started Friday, Saturday and Sunday’s games and picked up two stolen bases there. Last night he came into the game as a pinch runner, and even though he was caught stealing it shows you that he’s a threat to swipe a bag and help your team even when he isn’t in the starting lineup.

Eric Young, Jr. |2B, OF|  Ownership:  ESPN – 4.6%  Yahoo – 4.0%

The sum up is this:  if you’re just looking for stolen bases (and maybe a few runs scored), then Young is your guy.  He doesn’t swing the bat for any kind of power and he doesn’t hit for a decent average.  But what he does do well is run.  Technically, he has raised his average over 20 points here in August, which is a nice bonus, but it’s the MLB-leading nine stolen bases this month upon which you should be focusing.  He’s featured in the lineup more often than not, and his 12.0% walk rate and .333 OBP keep him on the bases.  Over the last two weeks, he’s drawn seven walks, stolen six bases and scored seven runs.  Even when he’s not starting, he is regularly used as a pinch runner or late game defensive replacement, so the opportunities are always there.  He’s become a favorite of manager Jim Tracy and should continue to see time both out in left field and at second base.  Stolen bases can be a very movable category, even this late in the year, so Young can be a huge help.

Nick Hundley |C|  Ownership:  ESPN – 8.0%  Yahoo – 11.0%

Last week, in the Catchers on Fire piece, Hundley received an honorable mention for his performance in the month of August.  Well, a week has gone by and, believe it or not, he’s done even more.  Over the seven days, Hundley has hit .526 with one home run, four RBI and eight runs scored, pushing him to .536-2-5 with nine runs scored since coming off the DL on August 12 and making him the hottest hitting catcher in baseball right now.  While on the shelf, he apparently spent a lot of time working on his swing and it certainly seems to be paying off.  If he can finish the month strong and have a legitimate September — it doesn’t have to be just like August, but something resembling his March/April would be nice — then you would probably be better served making the switch if you don’t own one of the top five backstops out there.

Find the categories that are most essential to your chances at gaining ground and focus on adding players who will address those areas. This applies more to rotisserie leagues than head-to-head ones (since matchups and scoring in the latter change each week), but the point remains the same: Numbers over names.

With that in mind, here are three American League outfielders owned in less than 50% of leagues, each of whom has the ability to help your team in a specific category down the stretch.

BATTING AVERAGE
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Peter Bourjos, Angels
Ownership: ESPN – 42% / Yahoo! – 32%

The 24-year-old centerfielder is hitting a very respectable .286 for the year, but he’s been extremely streaky all season. His BA by month: .300, .176, .329, .261 and .391 so far in August, which has been his best all-around month by far. In fact, he’s actually hit a season-high 5 homers and 5 doubles this month, so he’s clearly stinging the ball lately. As long as he can avoid a repeat of his putrid May (when his BABIP was an unlucky .243), Bourjos offers some real upside in this often hard-to-predict category. While his overall .363 BABIP might give you pause, Bourjos isn’t likely to be a victim of the regression monster because he can really run. His 21 infield hits are the fourth-most in baseball, so he doesn’t necessarily have to continue hitting the ball all that hard in order to post a high average. But the fact that he is, well, that’s even better.

HOME RUNS
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Eric Thames, Blue Jays
Ownership: ESPN – 8% / Yahoo! – 5%

Thames, 24, was a popular add back in early July. But a 3-for-36 streak from the end of July into early August saw him fall off plenty of rosters as owners jumped ship figuring Thames’ rookie run had come to an end. Not so fast, folks. He’s since regained his stroke, and is once again hitting for some pop, with 3 homers in his past 10 games, and his .193 ISO for the season indicates he’s capable of hitting a handful more bombs over the final six weeks. His fly ball percentage (39%) is right around league average, but his line drive rate (25%) puts him right in line with the best in baseball. As a guy who hits the ball with authority that often, and in the air more than on the ground, Thames has the requisite profile for owners in need of homers. As a potential bonus, he could chip in enough RBIs — he knocked in 17 during the month of July — to aid that category, too.

STOLEN BASES
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Ben Revere, Twins
Ownership: ESPN – 5% / Yahoo! – 3%

The speedy Revere has three things that will make him useful for those in search of steals: a clear path to playing time and his right and left legs. With Denard Span, who missed two months due to a concussion, now back on the DL with what the Twins are calling migraine symptoms, and Delmon Young having just been jettisoned to Detroit, Revere has found himself playing everyday again. In June and July, the two months Revere got full-time duty, he swiped 7 and 9 bags, respectively, so a double-digit tally between now and the end of the season is a good possibility. And don’t let the guy’s .300 OBP worry you: His July OBP was a meager .280, and he still managed his best poaching month of the year. In other words, when he’s on, he runs. The 23-year-old is leading off, too, so he’s in position to provide a solid runs total from here on out, should that be another categorical necessity.

On the Cardinals side…

It’s tough to figure just how Furcal will fare in St. Louis as he has spent most of this season either struggling or on the DL.  In fact, he’s played in just 38 games this season and posted a triple slash line of .196/.270/.246 with a downright atrocious .239 wOBA.  However, if you figure that he’s now at full health and will regress towards his career averages, then you just might find yourself a productive little shortstop here.  The Cardinals, obviously, picked him up to be a defensive upgrade, but they’re also counting on him to improve their production from the leadoff spot.  Cards’ leadoff hitters this season have amassed just a .262 average with a .313 OBP which translates to just 51 runs scored and 7 stolen bases;  good for 2nd to last and last in the NL respectively.  With a veteran leadoff hitter like Furcal getting on base early, perhaps Tony LaRussa will be a little more aggressive with his runners and we’ll see a boost in SB production from Furcal.

With a new shortstop in town, incumbent Ryan Theriot will make the shift over to second base.  Had this been before July, there wouldn’t be any question about a non-change in fantasy value, however, after hitting .205 for the month with a 2.5 BB% and .225 OBP, there’s a good chance that secon dbase truns into a platoon with Theriot and Skip Schumaker.  Not that Schumaker has done anything to warrant extended playing time, but LaRussa could just opt to go with whomever is hot at the moment.  Downgrade Theriot for now, but keep an eye on the situation as he should be the one to receive the bulk of the work.

For the Dodgers…

The acquisition of Castellanos is really a non-factor for fantasy purposes right now, but we could hear from him in the future if he works a little more on his plate discipline.  While he’s sporting a .408 wOBA down in Double-A and has 19 HR with 10 SB, he’s also sitting on a 24.0 K% and just a 6.1 BB%. Making the jump to the majors with a K-rate like that would be tough to do.  Still, for a guy his size (5′ 11″ 180 lbs), he’s got good pop with a little bit of speed and I agree with Rancel’s guess that he’ll make for a decent 4th OF or right-handed side of a platoon.

The real fantasy value that comes from this deal is the vacancy left at shortstop in L.A.  Dee Gordon…..COME ON DOWN!!!  Gordon struggled in his initial call-up, hitting just .232 with a .250 OBP, but he also swiped 9 bases in his 22 game stint.  Upon his demotion to Triple-A, he went on to hit .375 with another 8 steals and started to cut down on the strikeouts.  He could stand to draw a few more walks, but hopefully that comes with a little more experience and maturity.  Gordon should make for a solid option in NL-only leagues and, if you’re looking for stolen bases, should be a viable source in mixed leagues as well.

Willie Bloomquist |SS, 3B, OF|  Ownership:  ESPN – 7.5%  Yahoo – 11%

Surprisingly, Bloomquist wasn’t a very hot pick up when the Diamondbacks lost Stephen Drew last week.  True, the team called up Cody Ransom and said that the two would split time, but Bloomquist has started eight of the team’s last nine games and has hit safely in all of them.  In fact, with three multi-hit games in that span, he has hit .343 with four runs scored, three RBI and one stolen base.  If you can use the boost in speed and he’s available, he’s definitely worth the shot.

While, at first glance, Bloomquist’s overall numbers don’t look particularly helpful, you have to look at what he did in April when he was playing every day while Drew was hurt early on.  He hit .306 for the first month of the season with 11 runs scored and 7 stolen bases.  Deja vu all over again?  Perhaps.  He seems to be off to similarly hot start again here and the stolen bases should follow in no time.  The .391 BABIP should start to come down a bit, but with regular time, you should also see his K% and BB% regress to the means which will keep his OBP up at a nice healthy rate.  Unless the Diamondbacks start shopping for a shortstop here at the trade deadline, Bloomquist should be in the lineup regularly and hitting leadoff in each game he starts.

Dexter Fowler  |OF|  Ownership:  ESPN – 23.1%  Yahoo – 19%

Since returning to the majors just after the All Star Break, Fowler is doing everything he should be doing.  In 11 games thus far, he is hitting .342 with 10 runs scored and 3 stolen bases.  Well, almost everything.  He’s still striking out a little too much for everyone’s liking and when that .500 BABIP here in July starts to regress, he’ll need to start trimming down those K’s while either maintaining or even improving on his walk rate if he’s going to want to stick in the lineup every day.  His return started a little slowly, but he’s now hit safely in six of his last seven games with four of them being multi-hit performances.  He’s also only struck out four times in his last 18 plate appearances, and while that’s still a 22.2% strikeout rate, it’s still an improvement on what he’s done in the past.  Baby steps to full productivity.

Fowler is still very much a work in progress and if you’re going to use him, you have to be prepared to deal with some of his faults.  He is far from the perfect leadoff hitter, but if you’re simply looking to get a boost in steals and runs scored, can withstand the strikeouts, and have enough batting average help throughout the rest of your lineup, then Fowler can be extremely helpful.  He’s got the game-breaking speed….he just needs to keep his head on straight.

Grady Sizemore I Ownership: 89.4% ESPN I
The Indians activated Sizemore from the DL on Sunday and immediately inserted him into the leadoff spot and put him in centerfield. In his first two games, he’s gone 5-for-9 with two doubles and a homer, showing little, if any, rust following a long layoff from his microfracture surgery last June. The 28-year-old will be handled with care — don’t expect everyday PT until he proves his knee can take it — because he’s too important to the franchise, either as a potentially dynamic player that can help the team maintain its surprising start or as a possible trade chip to bring back some goodies if not. It’s also unlikely Sizemore, a thieving baserunner in the past, will push his knee enough to swipe even double-digit bags. But the power (.205 career ISO) appears to be there — three of his six hits during a five-game minor-league rehab assignment went for extra bases, including a four-bagger — and he should be snatched up in any league where he’s available. He’s already owned in 14-teamers or AL-onlies, but in 10- or 12-teamer’s he’s a good high-risk/high-reward gamble; if he pans out, the payoff could be equivalent to a No. 2 OF, and if he has struggles with the stick or misses time, there will be plenty of replacement options in free agency.

Shin-Soo Choo I Ownership: 100% ESPN I
Despite his two homers and three steals, Choo is really struggling at the moment with a .213 average and a career-worst walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.35). Aside from a buy low trade proposal, there’s not much actionability because he’s owned in every league. He’s not chasing pitches (17.5% O-Swing) or even swinging all that much overall (39.4% Swing), yet on the cuts he is taking, he’s whiffing slightly more than usual (12.5% SwStr) and his contact numbers (72.6% Contact, 76.9% Z-Contact) are below the norm for him. Something to keep an eye on, but nothing to freak out over based on only 61 ABs. It stands to reason that the über-consistent Choo, a 28-year-old just entering his prime, will find his swing sooner rather than later, just like it does that a healthy Grady atop the lineup will help stabilize the entire batting order. Sizemore’s solid on-baseness (.364 career OBP) should provide Choo with more RBI opps once he gets going. And not to worry: On days when Sizemore rests, the next guy on this list will act as fill-in leadoff man…

Michael Brantley I Ownership: 4.0% ESPN I
…a role he’s more than capable of handling, evidenced by his .385 OBP this season and .388 during his minor-league days. Upon his return, Sizemore displaced Brantley both in center and leadoff, but that’s more a nod to how much the Indians value Sizemore rather than an indictment of Brantley’s skills, and the team has already said Brantley will handle Sizemore’s duties during his off days. While the 23-year-old brings next-to-nothing in the power department (16 HRs in 566 minor-league games and a .069 MLB ISO), there’s a savvy steals play here, especially now that Brantley, currently hitting .304 with three thefts, is finally showing plate discipline in the majors (12.1% BB) that lines up with his minor league rate (13.7%). If he can maintain an OBP north of .350, there’s a good chance for 20 steals and a possibility for a 30-swipe season, regardless of where he hits in the lineup. But his runs production will obviously depend in part on whether his hitting leadoff or in the bottom third of the order. A smart owner in a daily 12-team league (or deeper) will keep tabs and use Brantley as a plug-and-play whenever Sizemore is scheduled for a day off.

Austin Kearns/Travis Buck/Shelley Duncan I Ownership: <1% ESPN I
None of these three was ever all that appealing, even in the deepest of AL-only leagues. And that was before Sizemore took over the outfield spot that was being used as their musical chair over the first 14 games. Neither Kearns (.524 OPS) or Buck (.611) are worth much to fantasy owners at this point, whereas Duncan’s pop (.192 career ISO) could be put to use if the Indians deploy him as a platooner against lefties (.232 ISO). The lefty-hitting Brantley actually holds his own vs. southpaws (.278 average compared to .266 vs. RHPs), but Sizemore struggles (.230), so one option to maximize Cleveland’s offense against lefthanders would be to give Grady his day off, shift Brantley to center and make room for Duncan in left. Regardless, something will have to give, as one of these three will be sent down today when the team recalls starter Jeanmar Gomez to fill the rotation spot of injured Mitch Talbot, who was placed on the DL to open the roster spot for Sizemore in the first place. (See how everything comes full circle?) Kearns is staying put, but both Buck and Duncan have minor-league options remaining. If you’re closely following that sort of decision for its impact on your fantasy team, you must be playing in an AL Central-only league.

David Murphy, Rangers
It’s time to get on board with the Murph. He started 2011 with a pinch-hit two-run double centerfielderoff Daniel Bard and a solo jack off Clay Buchholz, showing that his already-hot bat can catch up to top-notch gas. Even if he doesn’t wrest starting duties from Julio Borbon—despite some early criticism of his D, expect the speedy to keep the gig—Murphy will still, as the kids say, do what he do. The former first-rounder won’t wow, but he may just be the most consistent, most undervalued—heck, the most consistently undervalued—non-starting outfielder in baseball. And there is, indeed, value in consistency. Since 2008, he’s put up OPSs* of .786, .785 and .806, hit 28, 24 and 26 doubles, tallied 15, 17 and 12 homers and scored 64, 54 and 51 runs, all respectively. He struggles some against lefties (career .692 OPS), but the Rangers deploy him strategically, with just about one-third of his career plate apps coming vs. southpaws, thus limiting the damage to his rate stats (and yours). There’s also the injury-proneness of Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, who have topped 140 games played just once between them, so Murph is a safe bet to get more PT than your typical backup. In fact, he’s notched 415, 432 and 419 at-bats the past three seasons. What was that about consistency?
*What, exactly, is the plural of OPS?

Felix Pie, Orioles
You’ll forgive me if I often confuse Pie with Corey Patterson. After all, both were big-time Cubs outfield prospects rushed to the bigs so Chicago could put their Raw Toolsy Goodness™ to use, only to fail to meet expectations and get shipped off to Baltimore. Actually, Patterson made his obligatory annual reappearance last year as an Oriole, in part because Pie had issues. (Also, both last names? Start with the letter “P”!) For all his faults—and there were plenty—Patterson actually revived his career in his first go-round as an Oriole in 2006, thanks in large part to a career-best 45 swipes. Pie doesn’t have that weapon in his arsenal, but he does have three things working in his favor: 1) At 26, there’s still time for him to “get it,” which is what made him a popular sleeper candidate a year ago, until he strained his latissimus dorsi* and missed almost three months, thus torpedoing his fantasy momentum; 2) his defense will keep him in the mix because Buck Showalter won’t want to trust Luke Scott in left more than he has to, especially if the O’s continue to prove they’re good enough to be competitive in most games; and 3) Scott is currently hampered by a groin injury, which could have something to do with the fact that he’s not used to playing the field regularly (since the start of 2009: 42 outfield games) and almost definitely will make him even more of a liability with the leather once he’s back out there. Unlike Murphy, Pie doesn’t need to be owned in anything shallower than AL-only or 14-team mixed leagues, but he has an opportunity to break the 300-AB barrier for the first time in his career, making double digits in both homers and steals possible. That should be enough to prevent Patterson from resurfacing in Baltimore again this year.
*That would be a sweet band name, no?

Jarrod Dyson, Royals
Melky Cabrera sure has a fun first name.* And gee, he probably tries real hard. But he was arguably the worst player in baseball last year, and he has somehow tricked the Yankees, Braves and now Royals into giving him a starting job despite owning the fifth-worst ISO (.113) among starting outfielders since 2006. So basically, KC’s choice is: Give regular time to a guy with no real worth and absolutely no upside, or give some of that time to, well, anyone else. There’s obviously no guarantee that Ned Yost & Co. will make the right choice on this, but if the first few games are any indication, there at least appears to be a chance that speed monger Dyson, who wasn’t even expected to break camp with the team, will get some run. (See what I did there?) And if there’s one thing the 26-year-old can do, it’s run: In 305 minor-league games, Dyson has thieved 131 bags, so whenever he gets on base, he’s got the evergreen light. Just this past weekend, he stole two bases (second and third, consecutively) as a late-game pinch-runner. He’s strictly a speed play (only two career homers between majors and minors), and Lorenzo Cain, the better all-around CF prospect, is looming, so don’t expect him to take the job and…run…with…it…but Dyson could be the type of streaky steal guy who nabs five bases in a week, even if he only gets 10 ABs. Best course of action is to monitor how the Royals play it, and if Dyson starts a couple games in a row—pounce. And fast.
*Every time I say it out loud, I think of this scene from A League Of Their Own.

Let’s start from the top and take a look at Shane Victorino. The Flyin Hawaiian’s 2010 campaign was a mixed bag. Yes his home runs, RBI, and stolen bases were improved over 2009, but his batting average, on base percentage, hits, and runs were way down. The increase in power and decrease average and OBP look to be caused by the spike in Victorino’s fly ball rate. In 2009 it was 33.2 percent while in 2010 it jumped to 37.6 percent. That lead to a dip in his line drive percentage – from 21.7 percent in 2009 to 17.4 percent last year. The more fly balls Victorino hits the more outs he’s going to generate. He’s not a power hitter, so while the increase in home runs is nice, his value lies in his ability to hit for average, score runs, and steal bases. His BABIP was also low last season (.273), but that too be tied to the increase of fly balls hit. The loss of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley‘s injury concerns may have a negative impact on Victorino’s run totals – it’s going to be harder for him to get back to scoring 100 runs a season.  If Victorino can get back to slapping the ball around the field instead of popping it up for outs, he has a good chance of regaining fantasy value in the categories you rely on him most.

Next on our list are two players similar enough that I’m going to lump them together for the sake of this post, even though their skill sets are just different enough to separate them in our tiers. Michael Bourn and Nyjer Morgan derive their fantasy value entirely from their speed. If they didn’t steal 30+ bases a year there’s no way in the world they’d be owned in any league, ever. It just so happens that Bourn has stolen 61 and 52 bases over the past two seasons, making him an extremely valuable asset. He’s one of the few players who can win you an entire category for you in any given week. A strikeout rate under 20 percent would be a welcomed addition to Bourn’s game as it would get him on base to steal more, but that’s not likely to happen. As long as he keeps his ground ball rate in the high 50 percent range he’ll be able to use his speed to his advantage, keeping his average in a respectable range (career .263) in the process.

Nyjer Morgan is in a tier below Bourn because his stolen base totals aren’t quite as high and his behavioral issues are a concern. People may look at his .253 average last season and not think Morgan is worth much as a draft pick. A closer look reveals he was actually pretty unlucky last season, even though his BABIP was a respectable .304. It was no lower than .355 in his three seasons prior. Unlike Victorino, his batted ball rates were pretty much in line with his career norms so there isn’t a noticeable reason for the decline in BABIP. Fantasy owners can expect a regression upward, back to roughly .300 batting average this season. A .290-.300 hitter with 30+ steals isn’t easy to find. If Morgan can keep himself out of trouble he can be an asset in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.