The Orioles hold an $8 million club option on Melvin Mora for 2010, but are in no way expected to exercise it.

The third baseman turns 38 in February and hit just .260/.321/.358 this season in 450 plate appearances. He’s a shadow of the player who compiled a .340 batting average back in 2004, on top of 27 home runs, 104 RBI, and 111 runs scored. That season, his best by far, Mora posted a wOBA of .420, which ranked 10th in the league at the time and would have put him among the top three hitters in the majors this season.

Mora’s walk rate has fallen from 11.7% in 2004, to 9.1% in 2007, to 7.0% in 2009. He’s not hitting the ball with much force these days and he’s never really been considered a disciplined hitter. His Isolated Power hit a career low in 2009 at .098. It was .143 in 2007 and a career-high .222 in 2004. He’s also hitting more groundballs than he ever has with a 42.9% GB rate this year compared to where it sat — 36.1% — in 2005. That’s not a positive for an aging veteran that lacks speed.

So, what can we make of it all? And what can teams who might bid on his services this winter expect from the aging infielder in 2010?

It’s normal to see drops in production with age, especially when players near 40. And Mora, for all his faults, was among the unluckiest hitters in baseball last season with a .285 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). He’s also remained rather healthy over the course of his career and plays a fine third base. There’s no doubt he’s capable of serving as a quality utility infielder in another locale, but he may finally be off the fantasy map.

Mora will likely have to settle for a one-year contract in the $1.5 million to $3 million range, and he probably won’t find that in Baltimore, where they’re building for the future and attempting to trim some of their proverbial “fat.”

Mora played 1,256 games for the Orioles, which ranks 10th in the history of the franchise. His 252 doubles in an O’s uniform rank 7th in franchise history, his 662 RBI rank 8th and his 158 home runs rank 9th. “He’s been here for a long time. He’s been consistent,” Baltimore manager Dave Trembley said earlier this month. “He’s been the anchor at third base here for nine years. That should say it all. … He will go down as one of the top Oriole third basemen of all time and he has the numbers to back it up.”

“Is it going to hurt a lot? Of course,” Mora said in October, with the realization that he’s probably going to have to leave Camden Yards behind this winter. “I’m always going to a part of the Orioles. There’s no doubt about it.”

In 2008, Mark Reynolds put up a .239-28-97-87-11 fantasy line as a 24-year old. The RotoTimes Player Rater valued that season at $12.14, making Reynolds the 76th most valuable hitter in fantasy. Only 31 pitchers recorded a higher dollar value that year.

Coming into the 2009 season, fantasy players were not impressed with Reynolds. Not only did they forecast no improvement from the Arizona third baseman, they predicted him to be significantly worse than he was the previous year.

If you forecasted Reynolds to duplicate what he did in 2008, you might pick him around 107th (76 + 31). If you used a 60-40 hitter-pitcher split, you might figure the 76th best hitter to go around pick 127. Instead, fantasy players drafted him around 100 spots lower than those methods. Reynolds’ ESPN page gave him an ADP of 218.9 for 2009.

Clearly, fantasy players did not believe in Reynolds. What did the preseason projections predict for him?

Bill James – .269-32-105-101-10
CHONE – .252-22-81-77-5
Marcel – .260-23-82-78-7
ZiPS – .257-28-89-88-7

Only the James model, frequently the most optimistic projection system, saw him bettering his 2008 numbers. ZiPS had him with a better AVG, but basically the same in HR, RBI and R, while suffering a drop in SB. Both Marcel and CHONE predicted a better AVG but drops in the other categories due to playing time issues.

But even the most pessimistic of the projection systems saw Reynolds putting up roughly an $8-10 season. For a comparison, see 2008 Adrian Beltre, who posted a .266-25-77-74-8 line, which RotoTimes gave a $10.23 dollar value. Beltre had an ESPN ADP of 103.9 for 2009.

Why did fantasy players think so poorly of Reynolds heading into the 2009 season?

Obviously the strikeouts were a major red flag for a lot of people. Reynolds set the all-time single-season strikeout record in 2008 with 204 Ks and he had a 37.8 percent K%. Additionally, he had a .329 BABIP, which seemed elevated with his 19.1 percent LD%. Even the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model thought he was lucky in 2008, as it gave him a .304 BABIP.

Evidently, fantasy players must have been worried about the strikeouts and the low average ultimately preventing Reynolds from keeping a starting job in 2009. The pessimistic projection systems had Reynolds as a solid player even with 75 fewer ABs. Fantasy players must have figured he would not even reach the 468 ABs that CHONE projected.

The Diamondbacks did have a reasonable alternative at third base on the roster in Chad Tracy. A knee injury was the main culprit causing Tracy to log just 552 ABs in 2007-08 but all of the preseason reports were bullish on Tracy, who had a 132 OPS+ in 2005 and who carried a lifetime .285 AVG heading into the 2009 season.

But even when Reynolds struggled in 2008, he hit .226/.303/.409 after the All-Star break, Arizona kept him in the lineup along with Tracy, who saw most of his action at first base. That should have been an indication that Reynolds was going to have a long leash in 2009.

Clearly, no one saw the 44-HR, 24-SB season that Reynolds enjoyed in 2009. But since the team stuck with him through a record strikeout season in 2008, gave no indication that they thought Tracy deserved playing time ahead of him at third base and that the team did not have a top prospect at the position waiting in the minors, thinking that he was a likely candidate to lose his job in 2009 was a poor prediction.

Reynolds may have broke his own strikeout record in 2009, but the biggest whiff came from fantasy owners who relegated him to the 18th round or lower in drafts this year. RotoTimes gave his 2009 season a $27.58 value, making Reynolds the 12th-best fantasy hitter this year and one of the biggest bargains in the game.

Erik Manning did a fine job looking at the Scott Rolen-to-Cincinnati trade from a transactional standpoint, but fantasy managers might be interested in the prognosis for Rolen’s power in his new address. The same could be said of fantasy managers looking at Nick Johnson in Florida.

At first glance, Rolen should enjoy playing in Great American Ball Park. Though park factors aren’t always consistent from year to year, the Reds ballpark is consistently favorable to hitters. It has a 1.063 park factor for home runs this year, but last year that number was 1.23 and in 2007 it was the second-best park for power (with a whopping 1.351 park factor. In the three years before this year, the park consistently awarded over 20% more home runs than a neutral ballpark.

ZiPS RoS has Rolen down for a whopping four more home runs, though. 20% more than four is not very exciting. Is it possible that Rolen will see a more significant boost in power? His home runs per fly ball have been pretty stable for the past three years, hovering around 7%. His fly ball percentage has also been stable (around 40%), though lower than it was when he was more of a power hitter. In fact, his current 41.9% fly ball percentage and 6.3% home run per fly ball are his worst and second-worst marks in those respective categories.

The power is not coming back. Judging from the comments on R.J. Anderson’s recent article on Rolen it seems the power outage is part of a concerted effort to revamp his swing after his shoulder woes. At least his line drive gains seem for real (two straight years of improvement, and his current 25.2% would only be his second-best mark ever), and that park can help boost all his non-home run hits as well. He still gets a little boost with the move.

Nick Johnson’s move is in the wrong direction. He’s already currently sporting a slugging percentage below his on-base percentage, which is not an easy thing to do, and he’s moving from a neutral-to-offensive park to a known pitcher’s park in Florida.

At least, it used to be a pitcher’s park. “Land Shark” stadium is currently sporting a robust 1.182 park factor for home runs, ranking fourth in that category in the league, and 23 spots above Nationals Park and its .791 number. Is Johnson in line for a 30% power boost? Not so fast. The average park factor in Florida, from 2006-2008, was .91. Nationals park last year played to a .942 park factor for home runs over the full year.

Rolen is moving from an offense that ranks tenth in the league in runs to one that ranks 26th, so he’ll feel a hit in the runs and RBI categories that could undo any positive park effects. Johnson is moving from a team that ranks 20th in runs to one that ranks 17th and has negligible park effect differences. The unexciting conclusion is that these low-power bats will not gain much in their new homes.

Once upon a time, in a land far far away, Andy Marte was considered one of the best prospects in all the land. The Dominican third baseman signed with the Atlanta Braves back in 2000, and by the time 2004 season came to an end, few doubted that he was a future star.

Marte had the glowing scouting reports. In its 2005 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America gushed that his “ability to drive the ball to all fields is outstanding and getting better”, while also claiming that “his potential as an all-around impact player is unquestioned.”

Marte had the numbers as well. As a 19 year-old playing in the High-A Carolina League in 2003, the righty batter compiled a .285/.372/.469 line in 541 plate appearances. His K rate was somewhat high (20.1% of his PA), but not prohibitively so. Marte displayed power (.184 ISO) and patience (12.4 BB%) as a teenager in advanced A-Ball, a level where most players are closer to the legal drinking age.

The 6-1, 205 pounder followed that up with another tasty .269/.364/.525 triple-slash in 450 PA at AA Greenville in 2004. He maintained his control of the zone (12.9 BB%), while hitting for a ton of power (.256 ISO). The K rate crept up a little (23.3%), but it wasn’t as though he was the Chris Davis of the Southern League or anything.

As a 21 year-old in the AAA International League in 2005, Marte managed to post a .275/.372/.506 line in 460 PA. It was more of the same for Marte: walks (13.9 BB%) and extra-base hits (.231 ISO) by the bucketful. Even his whiff rate headed in the right direction, as Marte punched out just 18 percent of the time. His first exposure to the major leagues was certainly nothing to brag about (.140/.227/.211 with Atlanta), but 66 plate appearances of poor hitting were hardly cause for great alarm.

It was mighty difficult to punch a hole in his prospect status at this point. Andy was young relative to the levels at which he played. He showed a keen eye at the plate. He seemed to tame his contact issues. Heck, even his defense was sweet. Marte looked like yet another home-grown star for the Braves.

Then, something very peculiar happened. The Braves traded their gifted young third baseman, shipping him to Boston for Edgar Renteria in December of 2005. Young, cost-controlled players are worth their weight in gold (and top-rated position players tend to fair the best), so seeing Marte switch unis was hardly expected.

Then, we seemed to enter the Twilight Zone when the Sox then re-gifted him to the Indians in January of 2006, as part of a trade to acquire Coco Crisp. A top-rated prospect traded twice in one-offseason? Nonetheless, Baseball America remained steadfast: Marte possessed “everything teams want in a third baseman”, according to the 2006 Prospect Handbook.

Now Tribe property, Marte was sent to AAA Buffalo to begin the ‘06 season. The 22 year-old, who demolished the International League the prior year, was…just okay. In 394 PA, Marte batted a rather tame .261/.322/.451. His once-pristine control of the strike zone went a little south (8.7 BB%, 22.7 K%), but the Indians were still anxious to try out their shiny new hot corner prospect. The club called him up in late July. Marte’s first extended time in the bigs wasn’t really anything to write John Schierholtz about, though. In 178 PA, Andy hit .226/.287/.421, with a 7.3 BB% and a 23.3% whiff rate.

While Marte didn’t exactly hit the ground running in the majors, Cleveland was committed to letting him find his footing at the highest level. Or, at least it seemed that way. Marte made the team out of spring training in 2007, but then proceeded to flail to the tune of a .553 OPS in April. After just 41 PA, the Indians pulled the plug and sent him back to AAA.

Instead of re-establishing himself in the organization’s plans, Marte did a career face-plant. He batted just .267/.309/.457 in 379 PA. Shockingly, Marte’s once-pristine plate discipline went down the toilet. He walked just 5.6% of the time, while punching out 18.2 percent. Whether he was pressing to get back to the majors or not, Andy scarcely resembled the seemingly can’t-miss Braves prospect of years past. It was like he started getting batting tips from Juan Uribe.

2008 was little better. In 257 PA with the Tribe, Marte posted a paltry .221/.268/.315 line. He didn’t wildly hack at every pitch seen (Marte’s Outside-Swing% was right around the 25% MLB average), but Andy often found himself down in the count. His First-Pitch Strike% was 63.4% (58.6% MLB average). In survival mode and in the pitcher’s clutches, Marte walked just 5.6% and K’d 22.1%. His power (.094) was non-existent.

How far had Andy fallen in the eyes of talent evaluators? The Indians designated him for assignment this past winter, and no one claimed him. No other GM felt the out-of-options third baseman was worth a look.

Just when it looked like Marte would have to buy a ticket to get back into a big league stadium, he went on a tear at AAA Columbus in 2009. Andy clubbed opposing pitchers for a .327/.369/.593 line in 326 PA, with a robust .267 ISO.

What are we to make of Marte at this point? On the positive side, he’s hardly ancient at 25 years of age, was going postal on International League competition, and his 16.7 K% was rather low. On the other, he’s still not working the count all that well (6.8 BB%), and a .345 BABIP suggests that his batting average-driven line will come down some.

Prior to the 2009 season, CHONE was the most optimistic projection system regarding Marte’s future (.248/.316/.421). But that forecast does not take into consideration his resurgent hitting at AAA (per Minor League Splits, Marte’s Major League Equivalent line is .292/.326/.498).

The truth probably lies somewhere in between those two lines. While it’s not a perfect comparison, Marte calls to mind a Joe Crede-type, with good pop and a slick glove helping to compensate for an aggressive, lower-OBP approach at the plate (it’s strange to say that about a guy who used to walk in upwards of 13% of his PA, but that was a long time ago now).

From a fantasy perspective, Marte is well worth a look in AL-only and deep mixed leagues. With Ryan Garko gone, Andy should get a decent amount of playing time at first base when V-Mart is behind the dish (though it’s possible he might have to contend with Matt LaPorta at some point, if the Indians don’t like his range in the outfield corners). While he seems like a long shot to reach those prognostications of stardom, Marte is at least back on the radar screen.

Not all of us are looking to sell high and buy low right now. Some of us are just looking for help – any help at all – off the wire. And if you’re in an NL-only, AL-only, or even a 20-team, MI/CI, 5 OF and 2 UTIL league (yeah, that one is fun), you’re looking for any guy that might take the job and start for a while.

Let’s take a look at some of these fringe options. Every once in a while, the ‘first guy off the bench’ can really do some damage in these deeper leagues.

Edwin Maysonet – His speed is the only skill he has that registers as decent on the scouting scale, and his contact and patience are both below average. About what you’d expect from a middle infielder with a minor league career .259/.338/.384 slash line. But you know what? He’s hot. After hitting .271/.343/.379 in his second year at AAA last year, he earned seven at-bats in the majors and got one hit. Repeating seems to work for him, as he’s currently hot in his second try at the major leagues after putting up a batting-average heavy .309/.417/.395 at AAA in his third try at the level. Of course, his current BABIP (over .400) has a lot to do with it. Why not get some stats out of the young guy, though – it’s not like 33-year-olds with injury-riddled histories come back quickly from bad hammies. (Yes Kaz Matsui, I’m looking in your direction. How’s the couch feeling?)

Jonny Gomes – The good news about Gomes is that he’s actually bettered his strikeout percentage over the last three years. Of course, he started at a Russell-Branyan
-esque 36%, and he may have made some of his gains by being reduced to a part-time role (his .219/.309/.425 slash line versus righties is just ugly, and he had twice as many at-bats against lefties as righties last year). On the other hand, Ramon Hernandez
is brittle enough – why push him with more at-bats at first base? While starter Joey Votto is out with his mysterious stress-related illness, someone has to play first. When that someone is Gomes, versus a lefty, take advantage of that .271/.371/.512 slash line against southpaws.

Sean Rodriguez – Howie Kendrick is struggling. Despite being a .294 hitter in a career 300 games, the fact that he has never even put together 400 plate appearances in a single season makes everyone wary. Are his current struggles injury related? Or, as the low .262 BABIP (career .346) suggests, just luck related? He really needs to start hitting better than 12% line drives, and his upside seemingly belongs along side the other high-contact-rate low-pop second basemen like Robinson Cano and Placido Polanco. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is showing mighty power for a second baseman. His .279/.364/.637 slash line shows isolated power that is well above his career .494 slugging percentage in the minors, but right in line with his .645 slugging percentage from last year. Guess he likes Salt Lake City and its 1.16 park factor for home runs in 2008. If the team gets tired of Kendrick, or – gasp – he gets hurt again, Rodriguez is worth a long look.

Ryan Roberts – With all the first basemen in Arizona hurt (what’s in that water?), Roberts has found his way into some at-bats over the past week-plus. This former shortstop’s defense is above-average, so he probably has a chance of sticking as the corner infielder, at least until even Tony Clark is back. Roberts has always been a power-and-patience guy and his major league strikeout percentage (29.8%) is not in line with his minor league one (19.8%). This year, he’s got that number down to 23.9%, which bodes well for his offense. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .471 and ZiPS pegs him for a reasonable .256/.328/.380 finish. There’s not much to like here, since the team has decided that Mark Reynolds is a fine solution at the hot corner despite his poor defense.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

From the moment Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun stepped in a major league batter’s box, he’s mashed. The 25 year-old holds a career .304/.363/.586 line, with a .402 wOBA. While that whole…third base thing didn’t work out so well, Braun nonetheless posted 3.1 Wins Above Replacement during his rookie year, followed by 3.9 WAR in 2008.

While his work at the dish was outstanding in each of the past two seasons (.422 wOBA in ‘07 and .377 in ‘08), Braun is arguably turning in his finest season yet in 2009. The former Hurricane is batting a searing .326 with a 574 slugging percentage. Neither of those numbers should come as particularly shocking: Braun holds a career .282 ISO and possesses as much raw power as any player in the N.L (his ISO is “down” to .248 this season, from .310 in his rookie season and .268 in 2008). However, it’s the other part of his triple-slash line that might cause you to do a double-take: Braun boasts a .451 on-base percentage, fifth-best in baseball and 116 points above his 2008 mark (.335).

Braun was a very aggressive batter in 2007 and 2008, drawing a free pass just 6 percent of the time in ‘07 and 6.4 percent last season. In 2009, though? The “Hebrew Hammer” has suddenly morphed into a Youkilis-like God of Walks, with a 15.1 BB%. Intentional walks aren’t clouding the picture, either: he has been put on first intentionally just once thus far.

Braun’s dramatic spike in walks is due to a confluence of factors. For one thing, he is toning down his penchant for swinging at outside pitches. After chasing 30.6% of outside offerings in 2007 and 34.3% in 2008, Braun has gone fishing 25.5% of the time in 2009, just a tad above the 24.3% major league average. He swung at 52 and 51.2 percent of all pitches seen over his first two seasons, respectively, but Braun has hacked at just 39.5% of opponent offerings in 2009. According to The Hardball Times, he has seen 4.0 pitches per plate appearance in 2009, up from 3.7 each of the past two seasons.

It’s not all Braun, though: having been scorched in the past, pitchers seem less apt to toss Milwaukee’s big bopper a strike. Opposing pitchers placed 52.5 of their pitches within the strike zone during Braun’s rookie year, and 50.8% during 2008. In 2009, that figure has dipped again, to 45.6%. Perhaps opponents would rather tiptoe around the slugger instead of watching him trot around the bases.

Ryan Braun was already a devastating hitter, capable of changing the complexion of a game with one swing. But, if he can sustain his newfound patience, he may challenge for the title of best hitter in the big leagues (non-Pujols division, of course).

What the heck is up with Michael Young? He’s suddenly hitting like a… third baseman. The shortstop-turned-third baseman (Who was vehemently against the move this past off-season) has seen a huge spike in his power numbers this season for the Texas Rangers.

2008: .402 SLG | .118 ISO | 7.2% HR/Fly Ball
2009: .597 SLG | .243 ISO | 20.6% HR/Fly Ball

Those are pretty big increases in three key power indicators. Right now, Young is on pace for more than 30 home runs this year, with a career high of 24 in 2005. His slugging percentage was also a career-high that season at .513 and his isolated power rate was .183. Impressively, Young’s 2009 strikeout and walk rates are right around his career averages of 6.7 BB% and 16.1 K%. His batted-ball rates are also right in line with his career averages.

A lot has been made about improved team defense being the sole reason for the team’s success this season, but Young’s offensive output from third base is a huge improvement over last season – especially when you also include his batting average of .354. In 2008, career utility player Ramon Vazquez played 70 games at the hot corner and had the best offensive season of his career while hitting .290/.365/.430 with six homers in 347 at-bats. The Rangers also fielded a number of fill-in third basemen including Travis Metcalf, and German Duran – as well as the former third-baseman-of-the-future Hank Blalock, now the club’s full-time designated hitter.

The good news for fantasy owners is that Young’s increased power numbers appear to be for real and there is no sign that they are a fluke. As well, sandwiched in between Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton, Young has plenty of protection in the lineup, which will keep hurlers from pitching around him. It also gives him plenty of opportunities to both drive in runs and score runs. The 32-year-old infielder appears to be in the midst of a career year, and fantasy owners should hold tight and enjoy the ride.

An already-thin position took a hit this week with Aramis Ramirez hitting the DL with a separated shoulder. With the prognosis leaving him out for at least a month, owners are hitting the waiver wire in search of some short-term Maalox.

Let’s take a look at some of the possible short-term patches. Not all of them will soothe equally.

Adrian Beltre – Don’t think that Beltre is done just because it seems like he’s been around forever. You may be surprised to learn that he is only 30 years old. Possibly because of an oscillating line drive percentage (19% career, 15% currently), Beltre doesn’t own a great career BABIP (.291). That said, he’s current .260 number is unsustainable, and even if he ‘only’ pushes that number up to last year’s .279 level, the average will climb shortly. Perhaps it would help him center the ball if he quit swinging at more than 40% of balls outside the strike zone. Get that back to regular 30% levels and the line drive rate, BABIP, and average should all follow.

Mike Fontenot – How about A-Ram’s real-life replacement? Newly-acquired Ryan Freel and Fontenot will split up the at-bats at the hot corner for the Cubs, and both are decent players. While Freel is more of a speedy player, Fontenot actually has some nice pop. He’s hitting over 40% fly balls, and his double-digit HR/FB percentage (15.6%) looks sustainable when seen against last year’s totals. There are some black marks against the diminutive (5’ 8”, 170 lbs) infielder, however. His 10% line drive rate means that his .250 BABIP won’t necessarily move on it’s own accord. Since most of his contact, walk and strikeout percentages have been steady, it’s just a difficulty making solid contact that’s keeping Fontenot from being the best fantasy and real-life replacement.

Casey Blake – While Beltre is younger than most may think, Blake is older than most would guess. At 35 years old, his bat may also be slowing down. His contact rates are down across the board, and his current line drive rate (16%) is the worst of his career. He’s never had great batting averages, and calling the cavernous Dodger Stadium home (.857 park factor for home runs in 2008) doesn’t make him any more attractive.

Chase Headley – There’s some news in Padre-land, and it’s important to their third-base situation. Huge first-base prospect Kyle Blanks (6’ 6”, 270 lbs) is taking fly balls in left field, meaning that the team is at least considering pushing Headley back to third, and Kevin Kouzmanoff to a reserve role. The good news about Headley is that he’s cut down his strikeouts and is swinging less at balls outside the zone. There’s no number that leaps out and says that he’s been unlucky, but if he continues his natural progression and walks more like he did in the minors, he still has major upside.

Scott Rolen – Rolen may actually be the best short-term replacement for Aramis Ramirez. His BABIP is a tick high (.326) and his fly ball percentage a tick low (38.5%), but the best news is that he feels healthy and his lineup is providing him many ducks on the pond. The biggest worry, his 32% line drive rate, can’t be seen as too much of a negative. Sure, it’s a little high, but at least he’s seeing the ball well. As the line drive rate comes down, perhaps the fly ball rate will increase. Either way, he’s a solid run-producer that should put up the best batting average of the possible replacements.

The Florida Marlins club has recalled its top middle infield prospect. Second baseman Chris Coghlan, who can also play third base, was brought up when right-hander Anibal Sanchez was placed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. The former supplemental first round pick out of the University of Mississippi in 2006 had been playing at Triple-A. He was hitting .344/.418/.552 with three homers and nine stolen bases in 96 at-bats.

Coghlan will likely see more time at third base rather than second, due to the presence of Dan Uggla at the keystone. As well, the Marlins’ current third baseman – Emilio Bonifacio – has been struggling recently after a scorching start to the season. Long term, though, Coghlan could afford the cost-conscious Marlins the luxury of trading Uggla (who has impressive power but poor defense) for much-needed inexpensive pitching depth.

Coghlan’s best position is second base due to his offensive profile, which includes average power at best. The left-handed batter slammed a career high 12 home runs in 2007 at the A-ball level. He hit just seven last year in Double-A, with an ISO of .130. Eventually, the 23 year old projects to be a 10-15 home run hitter. Although he is not a burner on the base paths, Coghlan has good speed and is a smart runner with 30 stolen base potential.

Sanchez’ injury also impacts the Marlins as it significantly damages the pitching depth for the big club, with starter Andrew Miller aleady on the DL. Sanchez is expected to be out about two months after his shoulder acted up this week (He had labrum surgery in 2007). Look for reliever Burke Badenhop to move from the bullpen to the rotation. The right-hander has been pitching in the bullpen for the Marlins. In five games, he had a 3.63 FIP with 10 hits and three walks in nine innings. Last season, the 26-year-old appeared in 13 games for the big club and made eight starts. He posted a 6.08 ERA (5.10 FIP) and allowed 55 hits and 21 walks in 47.1 innings. Badenhop has the ceiling of a No. 4 or 5 starter and his fastball has been missing a couple miles per hour this season over last.