Check the Position: Catcher
Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops here.)
Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.
One of the biggest arguments of the offseason in regards to this position will be whether or not Joe Mauer belongs in a tier of his own. Certainly, if he repeats his work from last year, he’ll be above and beyond the best catcher in the league. The problem with projecting his power next year is that he didn’t crack 30% fly balls last year, he just more than doubled his career HR/FB rate (and tripled 2008’s number). That uncertainty regarding his power ‘drags’ him down into a tier with the recovered Victor Martinez and the steady power producer Brian McCann.
Next comes the tier that mixes strong rookies with some doubt with an ageless wonder in Jorge Posada. Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero have the upside to blaze past Posada (at least in terms of batting average). Just look at the second halves that Wieters (.301/.351/.415) and Montero (.316/.366/.534) put up last year for a little taste of the possibility. Though Mike Napoli made a small stride in his strike out rate (27.1% in 2009, 29.7% career), it’s still high, and he’s still the most likely to put up the worst batting average of the group.
The third tier is a mix of riskier young catchers with upside remaining and less-valuable older catchers on their way down. Actually, to be fair, A.J. Pierzynski doesn’t seem to be declining currently with his best batting average in seven years, but he is utterly devoid of upside and provides minimal returns in the power categories. For example, despite a major step back in his slugging percentage (all the way down to .329), Russell Martin could easily hit more home runs than AJ next year (and that doesn’t even mention his stolen bases). Geovany Soto seems to have had some terrible luck (.251 BABIP, .310 career) and is a decent bet for a bounce back. Buster Posey has to be seen as more of a risk than the young veterans ahead of him, despite his strong minor league numbers, just because of his youth (22) and his struggles last year. Bengie Molina had his worst wOBA (.308) in six years and doesn’t have a starting job in hand currently.
The final tier includes a trio of long shots at this point. Though there is reason to remain excited about Chris Iannetta, there are negatives for every positive. You might want to point to his bad BABIP (.253), but that may have been because of his bad line drive rate (16%). You like a power hitter to hit fly balls, but maybe not as many as the young Rockie (52%). If he straightens out those hits a little, he could even leap a tier next year, and he’s the best long shot in the bottom tier. Ryan Doumit just can’t stay healthy, and Kurt Suzuki hadn’t even shown this power before last year (.421 slugging in 2009, .398 career) and without it, you’re relying on a catcher for (already modest) speed.
Many of us will own someone on the bottom of this list sometime next year, but will we really want to draft them at the beginning of the year?
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Great article. Might I suggest that it would be even better if you threw up a quick AL and NL only diagram as well…?
‘Round about Oakland here, Zukes (Kurt Suzuki) is considered to be a pretty reliable leader, every day catcher (147 games), led the team in 2Bs and RBIs. And he ran a pitching staff as young as they come, and brought them through a tough season, one in which the As managed to win 75 games with perfect crap, which is better or equal to 10 other lousy teams. He’s the only current As player expected to be in the 2012 line-up, depending on how fast some other guys move through the system.
Yes, I know the As sucked (I know, believe me), and yes, I know there’s no such thing as a “clutch” hitter, and that RBIs are useless in predicting or evaluating performance, but…
4th tier? Bottom tier?
Makes me wanna cry. Are things really that bad?
none of that applies to fantasy….??
Napoli needs to be dropped down. Scioscia hates playing him over Mathis and he didn’t get enough playing time once Vlad took his DH spot.
Will Vlad be back?
About Suzuki, his real life value is better than his fantasy value, imho. Even his modest power last year was a big leap forward and can’t be counted on. He has less dependable speed than Martin, too.
I could see dropping Napoli down to the next tier, maybe I had my rose-colored glasses on. I think he deserves more playing time, but with the way Mathis played in the postseason, and the points you make about his coach, I can see that he may have trouble getting as many ABs next year… unless Vlad leaves.
Would you please slip Carlos Ruiz in the second tier….embarrassing how he get’s under appreciated cinstantly. He is a solid defensive catcher, calls a quality game, sticks pitches to both sides of the plate, and is one of the more clutch postseason hitters currently in baseball!! I’m not a Phillies fan but I can tell you at least 20 teams that would be upgraded by him being the starting catcher!
He may be a decent real life catcher, but he belongs in that bottom group for fantasy. His lifetime batting average is .259 and he has 22 home runs in two and a half years worth of at-bats for a catcher. Seems like John Baker-lite for me.
As the offseason progresses, I’ll do some analysis pieces that will include AL-only and NL-only values at each position, maybe he can sneak in there.
Ahhh, this is the first time I’ve slipped from fangraphs over to rotographs. I hadn’t realized I was in fantasy, though I should have. Sorry for the inappropriate emotional response above.
Anyway, glad to have Zukes behind the real plate, glad to get some positive feedback from you’all supporting that, and sure, I can see why the fantasy values are low, and not likely to improve a whole lot.
Chickity-check yourself before you wriggity-wreck yourself Sarris:
John Baker gets more AB’s: back on the radar? He didn’t seem to play too poorly when he got a chance to start.
Re: Iannetta
I invested heavily in him this year and, of course, was disappointed in his fantasy production. I have not given up on him yet, and do expect he will play better if he is given time to produce.
The question I have is this: are there other players whose history mimics Iannetta’s? By that I mean
(1) excellent power (.240 and .232 iso last two years), should continue.
(2) poor line drive rate last year, 3% below career average – bounce back coming?
(3) poor contact rate but has increased consistently in Majors . Up to 76.5% which, as a power hitter, puts him approximately between Votto and Fielder…
(4) very very good plate discipline (career 13% bb, 16.8% o-swing).
Is he a candidate to “put it all together”: keep laying off outside pitches, keep hitting the ball hard, and eventually driving it with better contact rates?
I know one could be “hopeful” about any player, but I’m wondering if Iannetta really does fit the profile of someone who might be on the cusp of success. The numbers listed above would put him in elite company if his BABIP was even league average.
Well, his top 3 ZiPS similar batters are Del Rice (a mediocre player at best), Tom Wilson (who entered the majors at age 31 and lasted only a couple of years), and Jerry Keller (a career minor leaguer). So…. not so good.
First and foremost in this reply, I am a big rockies fan.
I will say this second as well. Chris Iannetta’s skill set does not project well for a 5 cat fantasy league with Avg/HR/RBI/R/SB. He produces in at best two categories, HR/RBI, and not so much in the second one, or for that matter the first with the ridiculous idea of benching Iannetta for the (ever clutch -.-) Torrealba, who may have a better AVG but thats it, and not much.
I think that Iannetta has a very good shot at being a good player for a while. He has a very good eye, and good patience at the plate. With a low contact rate and an uppercut swing this year I can’t see him hitting above .280, and thats in a fluke babip year. I’d project him around .240-.260. However, I do think that Iannetta provides one of the best power threats at the plate outside of that top tier with Martinez and McCann. He’s not worth reaching for, but if he’s still around in a late round, and Jim Tracy pulls his head out of his ass and starts the better player, he might be worth a reach. Tracy: a .228/.344/.460 w/a .346 wOBA beats the pants off of .291/.351/.380 w/a .316 wOBA, and while neither Iannetta nor Torrealba are wizards behind the plate, Iannetta is more sure-handed and has a bit less of a noodle-arm. Also, Torrealba outperformed his career numbers this year, by quite a bit on the ba/obp front, while Iannetta is still young and likelier to improve by quite a bit. The .228 batting average is an eyesore, but when it comes with a .112 ISoD then it’s not that big of a problem.
He is a huge injury risk, but if you can put Ryan Doumit in the final tier, why not Jesus Flores? At least in a keeper league, he’s the better late round flyer. 4 years younger, a pretty steady path of improvement as a hitter. If he hits 6th behind Dunn and Willingham, or even 7th behind those two and Elijah Dukes, there should be a lot of runners on ahead of him for RBI opportunities (and since this is fantasy, RBIs are good things). If you see him playing in March, don’t you have to think about drafting him as a long shot, late and low, like your last tier?
I can see the argument for Jesus Flores over John Baker. Baker is 28 and has 600+ ABs of mediocre power (.140ish ISO) and a bad platoon split (.630 v lefties) that seems entrenched.
I guess the reason for my wait-and-see approach with Flores is the fact that he has never shown the walk rate or power that he showed in 2009. Also, the 2009 sample size was so small, and if you take it out, the career progression isn’t as clear.
I figure Flores and Baker could be in that final tier, depending on how you feel about them.
I’m surprised to see montero so high, I picked him up in the 2nd half and loved what he did for me but he really only had one good month, one white hot month and then back to average. I caanot gleam it from his MLB record, what categories are his strength? I can see Avg only. 15-20 HR I guess is good for a C, but he’s no slugger. I guess I just can’t identify his underlyng skill set. Who is a good hitting comp for him (ignoring position), Eno? And are you not scared off by the return of pretty solid young-ish platoon partner looming in c.snyder for ‘10.
To me Kurt Suzuki and A.J. Pierzynski are basically the same player, so it surprises me to see them in different tiers.
They both have borderline-elite contact-skill (87.5 % vs 88%). They both have mediocre power (.147 vs .125 ISO). They both refuse to take a walk (4.7% vs 4.5%).
You might argue that Suzuki’s power is a fluke. However, that is not entirely true. In his minor league career he hit .136 ISO. In ‘06 and ‘07 at AA and AAA hit hit .114 ISO. In 213 AB’s in ‘07 at the major league level he hit .160 ISO. To me this suggests that his power is definitely better than what he showed in ‘08, where he ISO’ed .091. How much better? To me somewhere in the .130’s sounds right. This means that he will probably hit a couple fewer home runs. However his power still compares favorably to Pierzynskis, whose has been declining for the last four consecutive years.
There are two reasons to be bullish on Suzuki for next year. Firstly, he is much less of a hacker than Pierzynski. His swing rates are league-average across the board. This means that his walk rate may improve in the future leading to more runs scored. Secondly, while his steals may be a fluke there is no denying that he has much more speed upside than Pierzynski or any other catcher not named Russell Martin.
For these reasons I believe that Kurt Suzuki belongs in the third tier of catchers.
Nice post.
I’m leaning your way after you put together a nice defense of his ability to repeat the power. You do want to give guys credit for doing what they do year-in and year-out (AJ), so sometimes you give the veteran a little tick above a young marginal player if you have your doubts. But if Suzuki can keep his power from last year (and you made a good case), then his extra stolen bases put him over AJ easily.
Still, I don’t think Suzuki has the upside to jump more than one tier really. I think Martin is much more likely to put up a 15/15 season next year, for example.
Miguel Olivo had a higher wOBA than Bengie Molina this season and is 4 years younger (neither guy walks). He was also better (wOBA) than Pierzinski, Suzuki, Soto, Weiters and Russell Martin (all highly drafted guys). I finished first or second in every fantasy league I have playing in for 5 years (won 70%). I win with the likes of Olivo…. Overlooked, underrated guys on bad teams. Olivo ISO was .241 Mauers ISO was .222. Sure he doesn’t walk hardly at all, but Olivo hits homers and can be picked up off FA wire all season long.
That was Olivo’s career-best ISO by a good margin, and he’s more likely to hit 13 homers next year than he is to crack 20+ again. A .230-hitting catcher with 13 homers probably won’t win you too many fantasy championships.
If your point is that you can win by skimping on catcher and finding guys on the wire with a little bit of power whose batting averages won’t hurt as much as regular players because they don’t play as often…
well then you’re right. I usually draft my catcher in the final rounds. I’ll probably own Iannetta and Doumit a lot next year, and if I’m lucky, Montero and Soto a couple times. (and yes I usually medal in my leagues too, lol)
How is Kurt Suzuki ranked higher than Yadi?
This is a fantasy list and Kurt Suzuki steals bases.
Sarris – You’ve been hanging around 11 year old girls for too long. “IMHO” ??? You do aim for some shred of credibility don’t you?
11 year old girls use the acronym for “in my humble opinion”? I think that is more just standard internet posting shorthand. I have seen 80 year old men use it.