Comments on: Check the Position: Right Field

By: Home Income Black

Home Income Black — Sun, 26 Sep 2010 06:17:23 +0000

I’m in dire needMake some moolaOn the netzI’m learning as I go but – This blog is at least helping me

By: NBH

NBH — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 19:43:50 +0000

I like Choo, but as an under the radar player and not an early round pick. With only 35 (HR + SB), so much of his value comes from the AVG and even though he hit .305 over his last 900 at bats, he has a 25% K%, a poor 75% contact rate (83% zone) and a sky high .375 BABIP. I know he’s always been a high BABIP player and he has a great LD% and he puts the ball on the ground more than in the air, but any “bad luck” in BABIP and you have a .280ish hitter.

.280, 20 HR, 18 steals, 85 runs, 85 RBI is pretty good, but I’d rather have Abreu or Werth.

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 19:44:52 +0000

No doubt, I think that is the logical follow up to your tiered rankings series.

As a side note, one issue I struggle with after reading articles purporting player A is as good a value “x” number of rounds later than player B is, at current ADP (and not to mention the “Clone Wars” THT articles in any context other than awesome, but articles similar to that), is, who precisely then is best to take at the earlier draft pick? It seems this is where aspects of positional scarcity factor in. One such example off the top of my head would be a Zimmerman v. Longoria comparison: Longo is going top-12, while Zim is picked around the mid-40′s. If I can snag a comp to Longo 2 rounds later, then I’ll take Mauer with my higher pick and Zim later rather than Longo and, say, anyone not named VMart (23) or McCann (high 30′s).

Sorry for incessant babbling. “Tandeming” picks, to the extent possible, seems an interesting idea, but one that simply may not be possible in the random world of live drafts where some picks render strategy ineffective.

As always, the roto-writer’s insight is appreciated. Keep up the good work.

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 17:27:09 +0000

Bringing in the ADPs brings this into focus. I still like Drew where he is, but he gets drafted so low that he is definitely interesting, especially if you can draft him late as a fourth or fifth OF and start him or not daily. I will have to include some ADP numbers in future work, or start a new series using ADP to find undervalued players. Thanks Big Oil!

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:21:47 +0000

Over at Mock Draft Central, they’ve got Hawpe going as 36th outfielder/109 overall, Cuddyer going 38th OF/~118 overall, Dye @ 45/157 (interestingly Bruce is pegged at 41/122)…Drew is 65/~275. I agree the former options are more desirable than Drew, and perhaps I’m not making an apples to apples comparison (overall rank vs. value relative to ADP) but for whatever reason he seems to be a bargain if you’re the type of player who is OK micromanaging in a league having just “OF” spots rather than positional outfield allocation.

Naturally, any discussion of “value” must be conducted with respect to scoring categories. Ours are R, HR, RBI, SB, OPB, SLG, OPS (sort of duplicative, I know). The players around Drew being drafted are Varitek, Ramon Hernandez, Inge, Alex Gordon, Salty, Gerald Laird (??) and Felipe Lopez.

I appreciate your responses and input and further am not even sure what precisely I’m advocating. He seems to be better at his ADP relative to where the others are going, but not without his question marks.

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:10:42 +0000

I think even in that situation you’re talking about a bench/platoon player where you’d want two guys from his ‘tier’ to fill that one OF spot. I mean, your starting RF in a mixed league should be at least 12-th best, right? So really we’re talking about Cuddyer, Hawpe, Dye-level work, and most of those guys are every-day players that won’t take the day-in day-out work to maintain that Drew will. I don’t hate on him. That last tier is relative un-ordered, so he’s just as good a ‘just off’ guy as any of that group.

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:47:08 +0000

I’m on board with that I suppose. My league is a 12 team, 26 player roster from both leagues. So, my default perspective is not 5×5 10 team smaller roster, to the detriment of some comments made here.

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:25:02 +0000

No, Drew is a fine real-life player, but with a .270-.280 average and 20 home runs, he’s not mixed-league OF material. In deep leagues with daily lineups, he’s fine, and maybe as a bench player in mid-size leagues he’s fine, too. But he’s no starting RF in mixed leagues for sure.

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:05:05 +0000

Are we dinging JD Drew on the basis of his projected playing time or for his .389 wOBA? Yes, the RBI’s have been measly — you just have to manage him appropriately in daily leagues, and he produces relative to his ADP.

By: Johnny Tuttle

Johnny Tuttle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:55:43 +0000

I traded away Abreu as one my first moves when taking over an existing dynasty team before the 2008 season on similar assumptions to Bernard. The sequence of roster management worked out for me in the end, but Abreu has proven already to be an outlier for normal age-based regression.

Yes, one year soon he will go “poof”, but I agree that he’s still likely to earn the position above in 2010. This is likely a value of this series: we get to spot likely value from a player who’s price will be lowered on expectations of regression. If I see Abreu slipping in a draft next spring, I’m pouncing. If I can offer something lesser for him in a trade, I’m doing it.