Comments on: Check the Position: Second Base

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:08:16 +0000

5×5 roto

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:05:08 +0000

Well, the upwards trending ISO is interesting, and fits career patterns for players as they get older. But he’s not a real slugger, so I’d assume that most of those doubles will remain doubles. He could have a career power year for sure.

But that drop in his speed score seems to suggest that his wheels are slowing down. Now he’s got a back problem, too. Could he be a .300 20/20 2B down the line? Maybe. Is that third round talent? Seems borderline.

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:02:01 +0000

We discussed players based on where they appeared the most last year, so Becks is in the 3B discussions. Check his player page, though, and you’ll see he’s a favorite. Just scan upwards in these comments and you’ll see where we discuss his possible place in the 2B rankings.

By: Tyler

Tyler — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 16:59:23 +0000

Why is there no mention anywhere of Gordon Beckham as a 2nd baseman? I drafted him to play 2nd base, with Prado filling in in the mean time.

By: James Morgan

James Morgan — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 15:37:25 +0000

Was Kelly Johnson initially a mirage?

By: Joey

Joey — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 08:01:59 +0000

Eno, why don’t you believe in Roberts in 2010?

By: B-Chad

B-Chad — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 06:44:46 +0000

Question for you Eno: Is it completely out there to believe Brian Roberts may actually post his best fantasy season to date next year? I see his ISO trending upwards, and his HR/FB improving, as well as more FB’s being put in play, I see the makings of a career year in HR’s. Couple that with say 30-35 SB’s, his already top notch run totals, and a BA around .290, and I don’t see that as being out of the question. His LD rate is still awesome, so I think .290 seems reasonable. My biggest cause for concern is that his BB rate and K rate are not as good as two years ago, though I’d expect a slightly worse K rate with improved power, it’s the lesser BB rate that bothers me more I guess. Anyways, curious for what you think. Thanks.

By: LA

LA — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:41:59 +0000

I agree with JK on Cano but in addition to “…what happened was his power went up, which then drove his avg up,” the new Yankee Stadium is homer heaven, especially to right field. Every hitter looked like Barry Bonds (without the Mars Attacks lookin’ cranium), Cano being one of ‘em.

By: Eno Sarris

Eno Sarris — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:33:00 +0000

I’ll give you a main point in your argument – I may have exaggerated his likelihood of hitting a lower batting average last year. I just ran his career stats through HBT’s xBABIP calculator… and got… .324. His career BABIP is .324. Checking his career numbers, when he hits that BABIP, he’s just as likely to hit .306 as to hit .320. So next year, so he should be good at hits, runs, and RBI and hit between those two numbers in batting average. That’s valuable.

However, he hits only 30% of his hits for flyballs. With a line drive rate that goes between pretty good and good, and that low of a flyball rate I don’t see him hitting more home runs than he did last year, in possibly his peak year.

So if you have a .300-hitting, 20-HR popping second baseman… who are you putting that ahead of? You’re putting that ahead of a guy that hit 36 homers last year? I suppose you are looking at Brian Roberts, who I think is the most likely to drop off the second tier. But still, you’d take a guy that will hit 20 homers and steals five bases over a guy that will probably hit for an average about ten points lower, hit 5-8 fewer home runs, and steal 30 bags? I’m not, especially given the relative scarcity of the two main stats.

Phillips and Kinsler will hit as many home runs and steal bags to boot, you just have to pay a little in batting average. Pedroia offers all that Cano offers, plus steals.

I still like where Cano is. Maybe the tiers could be switched up – Hill and Cano enter tier two and Uggla and Lopez are all alone in their high-powered, low-batting average tier. I had that as a version at one point, and I get that feeling.

I see your point about batting average. I don’t think he’s going to add much power and without the steals I just don’t see him heading up the list much. Perhaps others will fall below him, but until they do….

By: JK

JK — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:15:28 +0000

I agree with your general assessment of Cano, but I definitely don’t agree that he’s just as likely to hit .280 as .325. You seem to be assuming that his .320 avg last year was not supported but instead was based upon a high babip. However, his babip last year was his career norm. Instead, what happened was his power went up, which then drove his avg up. This is consistent with his career trend (where 08 is the outlier, not 09).

In fact, if you decrease the value of 08 as a predictor, his babip for his career would actually be higher than this year, so one could argue that Cano actually could expect a better babip going forward, which would drive his avg up even further. (I don’t want to dissect 08, but he had a bad first half, and his second half hit rate was 33%).

Cano did not just recently break out, if that’s what you’re saying in the last paragraph. He’s batted .340 in the past. He’s 27 now, in his peak years, and has trended upward overall in the last 4 years.