Check the Position: Shortstop
Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts.
Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.
Obviously, the biggest winner of 2009 was Troy Tulowitzki, who used a .344/.421/.622 second half to rise to the top third of the rankings. With only a 64% success rate on steals, and a speed score (6.6) that was far and away the best of his career, however, owners should probably not expect another 30/20 season next year and he may be overvalued despite his good power.
Sitting just below him is perhaps the biggest dropper of the year at the position, Jimmy Rollins. A career-low in BABIP (.253) suggests the batting average should bounce back. On the other hand, a six-year low in speed score (6.8) could be the harbinger of a decline in the 31-year-old. He still was successful on almost 80% of his stolen base attempts and still hits enough fly balls to muscle those home runs out. Rollins should be the value in that second tier next year.
The third tier is an interesting mix of the rejuvenated old (Derek Jeter) and the surprising young (Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett). Jeter has done this all before, but fantasy owners know that he’s not dependable when it comes to the counting stats you need in fantasy. At that point in the draft, it may be worth waiting a round or two and taking a shot that one of the young guys repeats his season. Personal opinion significantly determines how you organize this tier.
The next tier contains two men that disappointed this year, but given the fact that Alexei Ramirez is 29, it’s probably the slightly younger (26) Stephen Drew that should be picked ahead of him. Given Drew’s incredible oscillating OPS, next year may yet be a good year for him. Elvis Andrus is the upside play in the tier but he’ll cost the most, too.
The last tier is only for those determined not to reach for positional scarcity. It is not recommended for those in standard mixed leagues, even if Yunel Escobar shows some signs of developing mediocre power (fly balls increasing to 30% and HR/FB increasing to 10% in 2009).
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No love for Theriot over Furcal?
Better BA, more steals, less runs, more RBIs. One’s young and the other has ..a few back problems
Andrus and his steals might deserve a nice low tier spot too.
Andrus has a ton of room for improvement, as well… His contact rates and everything were great and his BABIP is probably low for someone with his speed and his GB rates. Plus, he’s so young; there’s tons of room for improvements. Heck, it’s likely he sees more time in the 2 hole instead of the 9th hole this season and that would add loads to his value.
There are still a lot of question marks with him, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outperform a lot of the guys on the above list. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him under all of them, though, either.
I don’t see him performing worse than this year, which would leave him where he is. By the end of next year, though, my bet is that he switches tiers with Bartlett. He’s a hard one to place though.
Well played sir. Don’t know how I missed out on Andrus there, after owning him so often as a Reyes replacement this year. Edited to include your feedback.
What about Scutaro? He’s gotta be ranked somewhere…
Wow. Surprised Reyes is so high up this list. As of right now, I’m probably not touching him next year.
I don’t think you should give up on Hardy so fast. None of his underlying stats really changed for the worse. It was mostly an unusually low BABIP and HR/FB rate that did a number on his season. Plus, he will probably be traded this winter (I’m hoping the Red Sox, that would be a great fit) and could well end up in a better lineup situation.
Reyes being 2nd tier makes sense IMO. Outside of his injury his season wasn’t horrible, if given a full season he would have put up solid numbers. If fully healthy in 2010, I can’t see why he shouldn’t be drafted high.
I think the rub on Reyes in the spring during draft season will be whether or not in your draft his cost outweighs his risk. If he slips into the second or even third rounds, then his upside is definitely worth it, and you’ll have 1-2 surer things in front of him. If you reach in the first for him, then you’re going to need him to absolutely rebound without slippage for it to pay off, and you’re going to need to go very safe with your other top picks, too.
Thus far, the health reports seem to support a full recovery, but ST will hopefully clear up things more so.
I’ll admit I whiffed on Scutaro, too, but he doesn’t contribute much in the counting stats (12 HR, 14 SB), so I’d have to put him right below Alexei Ramirez, given the fact that he has such an extensive history of mediocrity compared to Ramirez’ shorter history.
As for Reyes, dropping him a tier seemed appropriate. I would say he used to be in the Hanley Ramirez tier but the injury dropped him down into the second and third rounds with the other still-attractive, yet bearing question marks, options.
And JJ Hardy: a steady four-year decline in his LD% (last year he sported the worst in the majors had he qualified for the batting title) led to an extreme drop in his slugging percentage, and without a guaranteed job, it’s hard to put him any higher on this list.
No need to justify Hardy’s spot on the list…
I assume Alcides is in the ‘wait and see’ category, he could give you a ton of steals though even as early as next season, though the AVG/OBP/SLG could be ugly.
Alcedes gets an ‘incomplete.’ If we were drafting tomorrow, I’d put him behind Theriot because of the risk… especially if your league counts OPS. But if faced with the choice of Furcal, Theriot and Alcedes in a league, I wait a round or two and take Alcedes for the upside. Because I like young players.
Nothing on Asdrubal Cabrera? He’s been good for 9 straight months. He’s “benefited from” of perhaps “generated” a high BABIP the whole time. I’d put him between Drew and Elvis. Any one agree?
Six homers and 17 stolen bases over an entire season puts him just on the outside of this list, imho. For fantasy, he’s just a little too empty. Andrus offers many more steals, Ramirez more power.
I’d take Tulowitzki as the #2 ahead of Reyes. Tulowitzki doesn’t have the type of medical concerns Reyes does. Not only did Reyes have leg issues in 2009, he was also plagued by them when he was coming up through the Mets system. That adds up to a gigantic red flag. For what it’s worth, I’m not in roto leagues… H2H pts.
Escobar seems like he would fit in better with the fourth tier than the fifth tier – .299/.377/.436 at age 26, with average defense, is better than what Drew and Ramirez have done so far. Escobar looks like a .350wOBA player going forward, to me, which is better than Ramirez’s best year and better than Drew’s career average and his 2009, and roughly the same as his best year, 2008. I guess Escobar contributes less to counting stats since he hasn’t shown as much power as Drew or Ramirez (and I don’t really do fantasy baseball, so I’m not sure how all of this stuff weighs out and when it comes to that), but Escobar’s on-base ability and more stable batting average makes him a better player, I think.
very nice analysis. looking forward to the rest of these articles
Alexei Ramirez is 28, not 29. What are your thoughts on him? He made huge strides with his patience (doubled his BB%, lowered his K%) but hit low in the order and hit with very little power. It usually takes a few years for Cuban hitters to figure things out… could Alexei be 2010′s version of Kendry Morales?
I’m not sure that Ramirez and Morales are that comparable. Ramirez has spent two years putting up mediocre numbers in the major leagues while Morales was a year younger and doing more of his adjusting in the minor leagues. It just seems like Ramirez has shown that he has some good and bad streaks in him, and even if you look back his Cuban numbers, he showed a lot of inconsistency (mostly in his power) from year to year back then too. The stolen base percentage is not good, so I don’t think the speed is dependable either.
So can we assume Alexei’s 30 XBH in 09 is a career low point? If not, I can’t see what he’s doing on this list, especially if his 14 SB isn’t dependable. I’m trying to decide whether to keep him as a 20th round pick in a 15 team league (with H and K as hitting cats). He’s high on your list… what are you seeing there?
I’m sorry I don’t have much to say other than the obvious: he’s had a good year and a mediocre year. His power and speed are both inconsistent, but who’s to say he doesn’t go 25/20 next year? Even 25/10 would give you value back on your investment. Inconsistent players have good years, sometimes they smooth it out. 15/10 is borderline – something like that again, he’s gone, but I hate to give up on him completely before he turns 30. Also, in your case, he doesn’t strike out a ton (14%), so that’s a little bonus.
Ok. Thanks. Great work Eno. We’re ready for the next position…. how about Catcher?
Coming tomorrow, the position of your choice.
Will Zobrist be SS-eligible in Yahoo next year? I have no idea what they use for qualifiers and I’m in a keeper league. His qualifying at SS would basically seal the deal on him for me since I already have Utley at 2B.
I believe it’s 20 games at a position in Yahoo, so that would make Zobrist a 2B/OF next year.
Everth Cabrera is capable of being a top ten fantasy SS next season. Probably wont be until 2011, but I think he deserves a shout out here. He has 40-50 SB speed. He will bat first or second and gets on base extremely well, so he will get you 100 or more runs easily next year. Best of all, he will be underrated and cheap.
Everth Cabrera should have been on this list, right around Theriot or just off. That was another miss, hopefully I got better at these with practice.
What can we expect from Erick Aybar if he hits #1 for the Angels? Asdrubal Cabrera-type numbers? A handful more steals?
Thanks