Check the Position: SP3
Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)
The series perseveres! Here are the first two pitching tiers, otherwise known as SP1 and SP2. Remember that the arrow represents how they got here (last year’s movement) and not necessarily their long-term trend.
SP3 is where the wheat separates from the chaff, and everybody has to take a risk. The first sub-tier has some pitchers that look like first or second tier starting pitchers (if you squint just right). There’s really a lot to like about Matt Garza since his strikeout rate and contact percentages got dramatically better last year. His improvement has pushed him ahead of James Shields, who is still relying on that nice changeup and pinpoint control, and just needs that blip in the home run rate to correct. Scott Baker comes ready-made with a great WHIP and could finally put a nice ERA with it if the home run rate comes back down. Rich Harden moved up in the ranks by showing a (relatively) healthy year, as did Tim Hudson with his nice (though slightly punch-less) return. John Danks is still only 24 years old, and though there are warts, he’s shown the ability to improve before. He could do it again.
Unfortunately, that’s just about where the top-shelfers end. What remains are pitchers that have been so over-rated that they’ve once again become under-rated, and some interesting young pitchers that have all the risk inherent with young starters. Ted Lilly used to be under-rated, then he had a great year and was over-rated, and then he had some surgery and became under-rated again (got that?). If he falls to this level, he’s got to be a value again. Kevin Slowey is like Lilly-redux, really, with his okay strikeout rates, nice WHIPs, and now his own comeback from surgery. Gavin Floyd did some things right and some things wrong, and has some nice upside but plays in a tough park to sustain that home run rate from last year. Jered Weaver just keeps on outperforming his xFIPs by giving up tons of flyballs without the corresponding home runs (around an 8% HR/FB career), but good luck predicting if he’s going to have a sub-4 ERA or not. Max Scherzer is young, wild, interesting and moving to the tougher league. I personally have an (unhealthy) man-crush on Wade Davis, but as always I remind myself that there’s inevitably a period of correction with every young pitcher, and I pledge to (try to) wait as long as I can before I pick him.
The last sub-tier (the “Hold Your Nose” tier) features a couple of veterans that once were considered top-shelfers but have shown their warts. A.J. Burnett and Carlos Zambrano have both been big-strikeout pitchers in the past, and both have shown that their wildness and arm issues will keep them from being elite for the forseeable future. Call Zambrano Little Z (and then run like heck), or perhaps even the “NL version of AJ.” Ryan Dempster rode the Ted Lilly roller coaster but seems like a steady investment for last year’s return. J.A. Happ got lucky last year (and finds himself in a tough park for the upcoming season). He deserves to drop, no doubt about it. But this tier also serves as a reminder – you can’t have a blindspot because you hate (or love) a player. At some point, any player can become a value once again.
11
Where’s Johnathan Sanchez?
Chone projections for Scherzer and Sanchez:
Scherzer: 4.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.34 K/9
Sanchez: 4.26 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.30 K/9
Shhh. I’m okay with Sanchez in tier 4. ;-)
You wrote about Floyd but he’s missing from the chart. You also mentioned Baker as “just off” of SP2, but he is absent from this chart.
I agree with the above about Sanchez. de la Rosa is similar.
Baker’s Tier 1 here, no?
I don’t hate either de la or Sanchez, but I’m not taking either before anyone above, possibly even including Happ. SP4.
Baker is too much like Slowey or Lilly to do better than SP3 I think. Nice WHIP, lower K-rates…
Thanks for pointing out the mistakes guys, I got em I think.
De La R and Sanchez are more likely than Scherzer to post 1.4+ WHIPs in my mind. I think most of us are hoping for a nicer WHIP out of their SP3. I was surprised, I thought the bottom of this tier would look nicer. Looks like you want to get your pitchers quickly between the end of SP1 and the beginning of SP3.
I believe Jered Weaver belongs in the first sub-tier. You’re going to put the injury-risk Harden and Hudson up there but not Weaver? Weaver pitched extremely well last year, all year. Hudson made 7 starts last year, 7! That was enough to give him an up arrow?
I guess my point is that if you’re going to put Hudson or Weaver in sub-tier 1, I’d think Weaver would be the better pick.
We’ll have to disagree here. I think Hudson and Weaver may be close in WHIP, and Weaver will have the advantage in Ks, but Hudson is virtually guaranteed to have a sub-4 ERA, and I call Weaver a less than 50/50 chance to do the same. Given the different leagues on top of that, I am comfortable with Hudson in sub-tier 1 (the 7 starts were not a huge sample size, but he looked healthy) over the consistently mediocre Weaver.
I’ll have to disagree with as well. Hudson belongs in T3 most likely, there is way too much injury risk and he is in no way a sure thing for a sub 4 ERA. To be honest he might even belong on the just missed list.
Actually Ender, Hudson IS almost a guarantee for a sub-4 ERA. He doesn’t appear to be injury prone either. He’s healthy this spring, also.
I came to this conclusion by looking at his yearly stats over his career, and recent updates on his health.
Hudsons last 98 starts(roughly 3 years) have produced a 3.85 ERA. He is a year older and coming off of an injury. His FIP each of the last 2 years has been in the high 3s. He is in no way a lock for a sub 4 ERA. On top of that he has a 1.30 WHIP over that timeframe and only 5.6 K/9. Add all that up and you are really just paying for ERA and maybe W(so volatile it is hard to say) here. Even if he puts up a 3.50 ERA the lack of K is going to make him break even with most of the pitchers on this list and that is without considering the injury which has to be a concern still.
Yes I guess we disagree. Well 75% of Weaver’s years (06-09) have been sub 4 era, so I’d call it more like 75%. Hudson is a fine bounce-back candidate but I don’t see it.
Also, the league argument is fine in general but you’ve got Shields, Garza, Harden and Baker in sub-tier 1. Not to mention that Shields and Garza play in the AL east as opposed to the AL west. And Harden plays for Texas.
and Danks. All your sub-tier 1 guys are AL except Hudson.
Good points. Guess I just don’t see much upside in Weaver, since he seems settled in where he is, while I think Hudson’s career shows that his upside can be better. Weaver could get a 3.75 ERA, or a 4.10, maybe he’s more likely than 50/50 to just better 4, but I just see him in the high 3s no matter what. He’s flyball guy in the tougher league without the miniscule WHIP of a Baker, or the career arc of Garza or the sustained history of success of Hudson. Maybe I have a blindspot for Weaver (we all have them) but he just doesn’t strike me as a guy that is likely to move up to SP2, and that’s what I want out of my first sub-tier in SP3.
Fair enough, but Weaver is entering his age 27 season, Hudson will be 35 in July. I’ll take the upside with Weaver, but I do see your points. Hudson’s best years are clearly better than Weaver’s. I’m just skewed by the age and recent injuries. And you’re right, Weaver’s true upside is probably not as high, but I personally would take Weaver over Hudson in 2010 and beyond.
wow seems like a great year to get David Price cheap.
I guess Ryan Wolf is in Tier 4?
Sorry, meant Randy Wolf
I am confused how these rankings are working exactly. Randy Wolf is “just off” being an SP2, but then he doesn’t make SP3 at all? Whaahuh? That is pretty far off then, in my opinion….
Really, Wolf should be in that final tier of veterans. In between writing SP2 and SP3, I did some research and wrote this article:
http://bloombergsports.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/02/running-with-the-wolf-pack.html
In that article, I suggested that Madson was a better value for 2010 than 2009, so I took Wolf out of that final tier and replaced him with Madson in the second tier.
I’ve been trying to keep to around 15 per tier, so really Wolf is just off of SP2, now too… I tend to focus on the list itself and put names of interest in the ‘just off’ list.
He’s actually so Just Off that he was in the final tier at first and then got bumped last minute for Ryan Madson. He could surprise me, but because of luck regression and a new ballpark, his 4+/1.4+ risk is just as high as many of these other guys, with the added non-benefit of lower K-rates.
This seems like a great time to introduce a new word to the lexicon – malafit. You used the chunky “non-benefit” to describe Wolf’s risk when malafit would have sounded much smoother. It means the direct opposite of benefit (plus it comes from the Latin for “bad”, just like benefit comes from “good.”) I’ve been trying to get this word out there for years, but (shocker!) no one listens. Eno, I think that you and your readership could help bring malafit into the dictionary of the masses. Gracias
hmmm, that could be the word I’m looking for!
what are you expecting from porcello? im not feeling his k/9
I too think Weaver is being underrated. Remember that he goes into this year as the de facto “ace” of the Angel staff with Santana coming off injury and Saunders an off-year also due to an undisclosed injury. He puts up good K numbers and should raise his number of wins, which is important for fantasy purposes. I do also think the age 27 thing is huge. He may well figure out how to reduce his HR rate, and being a FBer in Anaheim isn’t such a bad trait.