Comments on: Comparing Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/comparing-livan-hernandez-and-randy-johnson/ Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:15:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: cowdisciple http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/comparing-livan-hernandez-and-randy-johnson/#comment-2820 cowdisciple Fri, 22 May 2009 17:05:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=3342#comment-2820 Also, I don't know that I trust ZiPS for a player so far on the tail of the age range -- there just isn't enough data on 45-yr old pitchers to really know what to expect. Also, I don’t know that I trust ZiPS for a player so far on the tail of the age range — there just isn’t enough data on 45-yr old pitchers to really know what to expect.

]]> By: Brian Joura http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/comparing-livan-hernandez-and-randy-johnson/#comment-2819 Brian Joura Fri, 22 May 2009 17:03:42 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=3342#comment-2819 I think THT uses a different denominator in figuring out their metric. Here's a good piece on the LW numbers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitch-type-linear-weights-explained I've only seen two of his starts this year, but I think Johnson's problem is consistency with his pitches. His good slider is still getting people out but the trouble is that there just aren't as many good sliders these days. Perhaps someone who has seen more of his games can chime in with their observations. I think THT uses a different denominator in figuring out their metric.

Here’s a good piece on the LW numbers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitch-type-linear-weights-explained

I’ve only seen two of his starts this year, but I think Johnson’s problem is consistency with his pitches. His good slider is still getting people out but the trouble is that there just aren’t as many good sliders these days.

Perhaps someone who has seen more of his games can chime in with their observations.

]]> By: cowdisciple http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/comparing-livan-hernandez-and-randy-johnson/#comment-2817 cowdisciple Fri, 22 May 2009 16:56:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=3342#comment-2817 Actually I got that HR rate from THT. Perhaps they haven't updated recently. Still, if Johnson is going to fall off a cliff, shouldn't we see a collapse in his K rate, etc? If his FB and slider have both been junk since '03, how has he pitched so well? I don't understand the pitch linear weighting well yet -- if 4-5 of the HRs came on sliders, would that account for the regression in the linear weight? Actually I got that HR rate from THT. Perhaps they haven’t updated recently. Still, if Johnson is going to fall off a cliff, shouldn’t we see a collapse in his K rate, etc? If his FB and slider have both been junk since ’03, how has he pitched so well? I don’t understand the pitch linear weighting well yet — if 4-5 of the HRs came on sliders, would that account for the regression in the linear weight?

]]> By: Brian Joura http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/comparing-livan-hernandez-and-randy-johnson/#comment-2815 Brian Joura Fri, 22 May 2009 16:38:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=3342#comment-2815 FanGraphs has Johnson with a 24.4 percent HR/FB rate. The updated ZiPS shows Johnson with a drastically reduced HR rate the rest of the season and still finishing with a 4.82 ERA from now through the end of the year. Essentially, Johnson is a two-pitch pitcher with his FB and SL. Linear Weights analysis shows that his FB has not been a plus pitch since 2004. And now, after five consecutive years of consistent decline, his SL is no longer a plus pitch, either. At this point in his career, Johnson has virtually no room for error. When he has his good stuff, he can win and even dominate teams. But no pitcher has his good stuff all of the time and Johnson, as unique and as great as he's been in his career, is no exception. Regression is going to come (if it doesn't he'll retire) but if you think he's going to have a 3.63 ERA the rest of the season, I think you're kidding yourself. Baseball-Reference.com is having some problems. Right now the Giants have played 40 games but they show splits for only 38. But in those 38 games, the Giants and their opponents have hit 23 HR in 21 games at AT&T Park. In road games for the Giants, the two teams have combined for 32 HR in 17 games. That works out to a simple HR factor of .582 thru 38 games. Imagine what Johnson's HR numbers could look like if he was still in Arizona, which has a simple HR factor of 2.009 after 38 games. FanGraphs has Johnson with a 24.4 percent HR/FB rate.

The updated ZiPS shows Johnson with a drastically reduced HR rate the rest of the season and still finishing with a 4.82 ERA from now through the end of the year.

Essentially, Johnson is a two-pitch pitcher with his FB and SL. Linear Weights analysis shows that his FB has not been a plus pitch since 2004. And now, after five consecutive years of consistent decline, his SL is no longer a plus pitch, either.

At this point in his career, Johnson has virtually no room for error. When he has his good stuff, he can win and even dominate teams. But no pitcher has his good stuff all of the time and Johnson, as unique and as great as he’s been in his career, is no exception.

Regression is going to come (if it doesn’t he’ll retire) but if you think he’s going to have a 3.63 ERA the rest of the season, I think you’re kidding yourself.

Baseball-Reference.com is having some problems. Right now the Giants have played 40 games but they show splits for only 38. But in those 38 games, the Giants and their opponents have hit 23 HR in 21 games at AT&T Park. In road games for the Giants, the two teams have combined for 32 HR in 17 games. That works out to a simple HR factor of .582 thru 38 games. Imagine what Johnson’s HR numbers could look like if he was still in Arizona, which has a simple HR factor of 2.009 after 38 games.

]]> By: cowdisciple http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/comparing-livan-hernandez-and-randy-johnson/#comment-2794 cowdisciple Fri, 22 May 2009 15:09:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=3342#comment-2794 RJ's xFIP is 3.63. His ERA is twice that almost entirely due to a ridiculously unlucky 31.6% HR/FB. His 65.3% strand rate is also a little on the low side. All his controllable skills are almost exactly identical to where they have been the last 2 years. Livan's xFIP is 4.54, which suprisingly makes him a moderately useful real-life pitcher, but does not make him Randy Johnson. Strongly disagree on this one. RJ’s xFIP is 3.63. His ERA is twice that almost entirely due to a ridiculously unlucky 31.6% HR/FB. His 65.3% strand rate is also a little on the low side. All his controllable skills are almost exactly identical to where they have been the last 2 years. Livan’s xFIP is 4.54, which suprisingly makes him a moderately useful real-life pitcher, but does not make him Randy Johnson. Strongly disagree on this one.

]]> By: Paqs http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/comparing-livan-hernandez-and-randy-johnson/#comment-2779 Paqs Fri, 22 May 2009 13:44:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=3342#comment-2779 I just want to point out Eric and Dave absolutely killed the DBacks for passing on Randy and signing Garland. I understand Randy had a much better season in '08 but it's not as if it was crazy to assume there's a good chance Randy's performance will drop sharply. He's a 45 year old power pitcher ffs. Meanwhile, in about a quarter of the season, Garland has been worth 0.4 WAR, which would make him on pace for about 3.2 WAR during the length of his contract. If we take into account the ZIPS mid-season projection (4.5 FIP for the rest of the season), he'll get closer to 2 WAR for the season. So that makes Garland a good investment, and Randy, not so much. I just want to point out Eric and Dave absolutely killed the DBacks for passing on Randy and signing Garland. I understand Randy had a much better season in ’08 but it’s not as if it was crazy to assume there’s a good chance Randy’s performance will drop sharply. He’s a 45 year old power pitcher ffs.

Meanwhile, in about a quarter of the season, Garland has been worth 0.4 WAR, which would make him on pace for about 3.2 WAR during the length of his contract. If we take into account the ZIPS mid-season projection (4.5 FIP for the rest of the season), he’ll get closer to 2 WAR for the season. So that makes Garland a good investment, and Randy, not so much.

]]>