Crowded at the Corners in Colorado
The outfield in Colorado is a little bit of a Crowded House, and at least one good player is probably wondering why the team is being “Mean to Me.” Brad Hawpe, despite his lack of any defensive skill whatsoever, is a rock in more than one sense of the word. He plays every day that he can, and should because he’s an important contributor on offense. The rest of the outfield? Not as easy to call.
In a way, it’s surprising that the team did not trade Ryan Spilborghs at the deadline because the 30-year-old is probably fifth on the outfield depth chart in Colorado. With a .351 career wOBA and passable defense even in center field (-2.1 UZR), he could fill a more important role on another team. He’s obviously the odd man out on a team that has needs elsewhere and is competing hard for the wild card.
There is some exciting play coming from the guys ahead of Spilborghs the depth chart. One thing seems obvious. Dexter Fowler has a lock on center field for the foreseeable future, and all of his flaws have simple corrections that seem to be in his reach. His defense has not been great as measured by UZR (-16.8 UZR/150), but most of that comes from a lack of range (-10.4 Range Runs), and a guy with a 7.5 speed score should seemingly post a better range soon. He also showed better range in the minors.
The other flaw is his strikeout rate, which is keeping him from entering elite status. Again, he had a strikeout rate closer to 20% in the minors than his 27.9% in the majors. Players often post higher strikeout rates in the majors, so perhaps this flaw will stay with Fowler his whole career. His strikeout rate has spiked in the minors before, though, and returned to normal so here’s a bet that it’s just Fowler learning the ropes and that he’ll be a .300-hitting average-fielding center fielder with power and speed before long.
But this was supposed to be a referendum on left field. Carlos Gonzalez, though boasting better defensive stats in center field (10.1 UZR/150) than Fowler, seems to be the team’s second option there. Instead, he’s battling it out with Seth Smith in left field, and they seemed to be mired in a bit of a strict platoon. With Smith’s career .764 OPS against lefties, he’s probably best served by sitting out against southpaws. Then again, Gonzalez is also a lefty, so this isn’t the perfect platoon.
Should Gonzalez be getting more playing time? He’s had 37 August at-bats to Smith’s 34, and he’s outperforming him in this small sample (1.093 OPS to Smith’s .697). Gonzalez has had a wildly oscillating strikeout rate in his minor league career (14.3% to 25.8%), but his major league strikeout rate has been stable at a high 26.6% level. The biggest change this year has been that CarGo has found his power again (.203 ISO) and also upped his walk rate to his minor league rate (8.9% this year, 7.5% in the minors). Added to a 4-component speed score (7.8) that would rank fourth in the league if he played more, and there’s an exciting picture being painted here.
With his recent play, CarGo’s physical tools seem to be winning out over Smiths’ slow and steady approach. Smith has a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate, with a high walk rate (12.5% career), low strikeout rate (18.7% career), nice power (.184 ISO career), and a good line drive rate (20.3%). He’s cut down on reaching for balls off the plate (18.6% this year, 21.9% career) and shown good advancement as a hitter. Other than a slow half-month, there’s not much to dislike about Smith. He’s even a plus defender in left field.
Because this is a team that’s still in it, it’s hard to handicap the playing time going forward this year. They’ll probably play the ‘hot hand,’ which means that CarGo has the short-term advantage. Long-term, though, all four (and possibly five) of these outfielders deserve major league jobs. A trade is the Rockies’ future, and probably should have been in their immediate past.
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Did you write this article in the pre-season and just save it?
I think it’s pretty silly that the Rockies have known about this problem since Opening Day and have yet to really do anything about it. Maybe the guy in Colorado is brighter than all of us, and correctly predicted that his young outfielders would eventually wear down. It’s no like anyone is making a lot of bling bling, so it’s not killing them.
Free Seth Smith, as Dave wrote.
I don’t think what the Rockies are doing is silly. They didn’t know if Smith, Fowler, or especially Gonzalez would be ready for MLB. It turns out that all three seem like legit OF’s who could start for plenty of teams out there. But this way, by using them in platoons in a rebuilding year, they gave them all a chance to get acclimated without too much pressure . . . and guess what, it’s not a rebuilding year all of a sudden.
I have Smith in my NL only strat-o-matic league and have been following him closely. I don’t think I’ve ever had a more consistent player – there haven’t been huge droughts or the kind of mindblowing weeks a lot of players have now and then. His Avg, OBP, and SLG have been about the same all year long, it’s unusual. I guess part of it is that he draws so many walks. When you rely on that, your numbers are more consistent that an all-or-nothing type slugger.
I’m not sure if playing full time hasn’t exposed Smith’s weaknesses a bit. In the last 71 ABs going back to the middle of July his OPS is under .700 with his slugging dropping to under .400. Now it’s a small sample but if he’s really only facing RH pitchers you would expect better numbers from a platoon situation.
While this has nothing to do with sabrmagic, some players just aren’t platoon guys. Some players just need a schedule, and daily work.
Either way, Brad Hawpe has managed to get his splits to a respectable level after being in essentially Seth Smith territory. It wouldn’t surprise me to Smith develop in the same manor.
Just a gut feeling supported by memory rather than statistics.
Agreed. I’m just not sure (if given full time play) if Smith wouldn’t slip, or whether he would prove to be a capable full time corner outfielder. The Rockies for their part don’t seem interested in the experiment in the midst of a playoff race. Maybe he’ll be traded to a team that can afford to see what he can provide when given a real chance…
At least in terms of Ryan Spilborghs, the reason he wasn’t traded has nothing to do with statistics. He is considered a leader on the team and the team views him as an important piece in the clubhouse. He entered the season as the starting left fielder and has sat due to a sub-par season at the plate and the emergence of both CarGon and Seth Smith.
There were definitely nibbles on Spilborghs a the deadline, but since the team was just beginning to blossom into a contender, O’Dowd really didn’t want to rock the boat in the clubhouse. Signs point to him being reluctantly traded this offseason, however. I see him as a slightly below average major league starter for the foreseeable future. Remember, nearly all of his numbers are down this season. He has more patience and more power than he has shown in 2009.
This may be true, but Spilborghs also has a career batting line against LHP of .308/383/.506. With Fowler (not much of an offensive player yet) and 3 lefty bats comprising the rest of the outfield, he’s a perfect fit. If I had him on a Strat-O-Matic (or other sim) team, I’d keep him for this season at least.
Smith would have been a more natural player to trade away, but to where? Thinking through some contenders in need of lefty bats…. Cubs and Brewers are still ostensibly in direct competition with the Rox, the White Sox needed a CF, so maybe Detroit? Not sure what Detroit has to spare that another contending team would want, though. I guess Texas has to be on the list, too, as badly as their offense has performed, but they already have a plethora of outfielder/1b/DH types, many of whom bat lefty. Boston? Like Texas, they have the talent to trade.
Smith is still young and under team control so actually I was surprised that Toronto, KC, or Milwaukee didn’t try to get him. I have to imagine he has more upside than Bloomquist, or Jose Bautista (ughhhh), and those teams have excellent bullpen arms and utility infielders to trade.
For the Rox though he may just have more value as a great 4th outfielder.
It’s an ever fluid solution, which makes some sense given that you have a rookie (Fowler) and a near-rookie in Gonzalez. They’re both adjusting to MLB. As Gonzalez’s bat has started, he’s been taking more of Fowler’s time in CF, which is fine as apparently there have been some fatigue issues w/Fowler.
I don’t know what to make of Fowler’s abysmal UZR. I don’t think many observers think he’s bad in CF.
There seem to be many Rockies fans who think CarGon is better in CF, but I wonder how much of that has to do with the difference in body types. Gonzalez is shorter and quicker, whereas Fowler has the classic long, smooth “I look like I’m dogging it” strides. At any rate, they both seem to cover a lot of ground and have decent throwing arms (CarGon’s being better, but the point is neither is a Johnny Damon/Coco Crisp type out there.)
Smith has been competent out in left, but I don’t think many observers believe he’s the gold glover that the small UZR sample makes him out to be. His supporters want him to see time mainly due to the promise of his bat.
Another interesting thing about Smith is that he’s being used only against RHP even though his OPS is higher vs LHP this year. I know he’s a lefty and has historically Bern better vs. RHP, but one does wonder if he’s capable of hitting decently vs. LHP too, if given the chance.
Depth is never a bad thing. This team is for real. They are flawed (like most teams) but they took off when they stopped playing Ian Stewart at 2B or on a corner in the outfield and moved him to 3B, at least vs RHP’s. Their defense up the middle on the infield has been very good and Fowler is fine in CF despite his UZR. That’s likely to normalize with a bigger sample size next year. Besides, the real story with the purple is their pitching. Looked at in the proper context, it’s been fantastic.
for me, hawpe’s atrocious defense makes him the obvious trade candidate. his bat is not appreciably better than any of the other 4, but he gives back a load of runs with his lack of D.
either that, or see how he’d do at 1B and try to deal helton and free up some payroll.
I doubt anyone would take Helton’s mega-deal, but I’m agreeing with kamikaze80 here. Hawpe seems to be the guy that might bring back the most while improving their defense by substraction.
Seth Smith hit another HR vs. a lefty last night, bringing his OPS to 1.164 against lefties, who is usually benched against because he supposedly can’t hit them.