Daric Barton’s Future
In December of 2004, the Oakland Athletics broke up “The Big Three.” The venerated trio of Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito dissolved in short order, with Mulder shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals and Hudson swapped to Atlanta just two days later.
The Mulder deal has surpassed GM Billy Beane’s wildest expectations. While Mulder topped 200 frames in his first season in St. Louis, a myriad of shoulder injuries and surgeries have all but ended the left-hander’s career.
Meanwhile, the A’s got three superb seasons from Dan Haren, who averaged 4.3 Wins Above Replacement from 2005-2007.
Oakland then flipped Haren to the Diamondbacks for a prospect bounty including rookie stud Brett Anderson (3.8 WAR in 2009), top slugging prospect Chris Carter (.241 ISO between AA and AAA), outfielder Aaron Cunningham and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.
Gonzalez was traded to the Rockies as part of the Holliday deal, and then Holliday was bartered to St. Louis for a package including 3B?/1B?/DH? Brett Wallace.
Suffice it to say, that original Mulder trade has borne much fruit for the A’s. It might seem crazy now, given how wildly successful Haren has become, but the top young player acquired in that trade was supposed to be Daric Barton.
The 28th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Barton began his career as a catcher before shedding the tools of ignorance for good in 2005. But from the get go, the lefty batter displayed a plate approach well beyond his years.
Daric established himself as an on-base fiend, posting a .294/.420/.424 line in rookie ball in 2003. He followed that up with a whopping .313/.445/.511 triple-slash as an 18 year-old in the Low-A Midwest League in 2004.
Baseball America ranked Barton as the second-base prospect in the A’s system prior to the 2005 season. BA gushed that “while Dan Haren and even Kiko Calero will pay more immediate dividends, many consider Barton to be the real prize Oakland received in the Mark Mulder trade with Oakland.”
Though Daric ultimately couldn’t remain behind the dish (he caught one game in ’05), he did nothing to dispel the notion that his bat would make him a building block for the A’s. With High-A Stockton of the California League, Barton batted .318/.438/.469 in 361 PA.
Considering the hitter-friendly nature of the Cal League, Barton’s .151 Isolated Power was pretty mild. But for a teenager to garner far more free passes than punch outs (17.2 BB%, 13.6 K%) is pretty special.
Bumped up to the AA Texas League for the second half of the ’05 season, Barton didn’t skip a beat. He hit .316/.410/.491 in 249 PA, owning the strike zone by walking in 14.1% of his PA and whiffing 12 percent. Barton even put a charge in the ball more often, with his ISO rising to .175.
Barton was a prospect darling by this point, topping the A’s farm system while also getting a place on the personal top 50 prospects lists of Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Will Lingo, John Manuel and Allan Simpson. BA called Daric’s pitch recognition “off the charts.” They did, however, voice concern over Barton’s ultimate power potential.
He was said to have “a tendency to drop the barrel of the bat and slice balls into the gaps.” No one questioned Barton’s on-base chops, but first basemen with anything less than hulking power numbers have a wary eye cast upon them.
Unfortunately, Barton wouldn’t get much of a chance to prove his pop in 2006. He continued to work the count in his first taste of AAA ball (.259/.389/.395 in 180 PA), though he rarely went deep or found the gaps. Barton’s season was derailed, however, when Tony Womack (career OBP: .317) crashed into him at first base. Daric broke his left elbow in the incident. To make up for the lost development, Barton took his cuts in the Dominican League that winter.
While still praising Barton’s “textbook swing”, BA again questioned his ability to be an over-the-fence threat. Daric’s power was called “average at best”, and if he didn’t show more thump, Barton would be a “less-than intimidating threat for a first baseman.”
True to form, Barton showcased precocious strike-zone judgment and underwhelming pop at AAA Sacramento in 2007. He posted a .293/.389/.438 line, drawing a free pass 13.1% of the time and whiffing 13.4 percent. Still, Barton’s ISO was just .145, and his major league equivalent line was a tepid .254/.331/.378. Daric did everything he could to assuage those concerns in a late-season cup of jobe with the A’s, bashing to the tune of .347/.429/.639 with 4 HR in 84 PA.
Oakland gave Barton everyday AB’s in 2008, and the results were…*yawn*. In 523 PA, he compiled a .226/.327/.348 triple-slash, with a .121 ISO that ranked dead last among first baseman with 500+ PA.
Barton did work the count well, walking 12.7% and offering at just 16.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). And he got few bounces to go his way, with a .272 BABIP. Still, singles-hitting first basemen just don’t cut it (for reference, the average first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 in 2008).
In 2009, the A’s decided to bring back Jason Giambi to man first base. While the Giambino gave credence to the “you can’t go home again” concept (-0.3 WAR), Barton batted .261/.386/.458 in 313 PA back at Sacramento. Daric walked 15.1%, posting a .198 ISO. That translated to a .223/.322/.373 showing at the highest level, per Minor League Splits.
Called up in early June, Barton mostly rode the pine that month and then hit the DL with a pulled right hamstring in late July. When he returned in late August, the 24 year-old finally showed a pulse at the plate.
Not that Barton lit the world on fire, but he finished the ’09 season with a .269/.372/.413 line in 192 major league PA’s. He drew a free pass 14 percent of the time, hacking at just 13.5% of pitches off the plate. His ISO was .144.
So, what does the future hold for Barton? It has become exceedingly clear that he is never doing to possess the brute strength normally associated with the first base position (average 1B line in 2009: .277/.362/.483). And, if you listen really closely, you can hear Chris Carter and Brett Wallace breathing down Barton’s neck.
Barton’s window of opportunity hasn’t slammed shut, though. Wallace remains at the hot corner for the time being, and Carter’s best position is “hitter”, so the former White Sox and D-Backs prospect may well end up at DH.
At this point, the best-case scenario for Barton’s career would be something like the current, less-powerful version of Nick Johnson (hopefully without the need to be bubble-wrapped prior to taking the field). But Barton must hit the ground running in 2010, lest he be bumped out of the picture by branches of the original trade that brought him to the A’s.
2
TINSTAAP
I remember when Gammons said his A-ball numbers were Pujols-esque
what does TINSTAAP have to do with barton???
Can he achieve anything close to Youkilis? I know Youks is a bizarre outlier in projection circles, but his experience might hold some hope for Barton.
Youks primary asset was and always will be that he walked at crazy rates, but in the minors, his gaudy totals were skewed by two INSANE seasons: Instructional league, where he put up 70/24 bb/k and a AA season when he put up 86/40 bb/k…
In that first season of pro ball, Youks was 22 and hit only 3 bombs in 250PA. By AA, Youks was 24 and hit only 6hr in nearly 400 PA. By comparison, in AA a 19 y/o Barton hit 5 bombs in 250 PA, with more walks than ks. While always gifted with k-zone judgement, Youks “power” really didn’t surface until he got to the majors…
FWIW Barton still has a career minor league SLG higher than Youks. Of course, he’s only one year older than Youks was in Instructional league.
With the skillset Barton shows, maybe he could put up gaudy, Youkilis-like walk numbers in AA if he were sent there this year (as a 24 y/o)… But that would be a crazy move. So, I just don’t think we can determine his power ceiling as yet. He’ll be taking pitches, forcing long counts, and hitting doubles next year in the majors. Maybe in a year or two we’ll see a power surge. Maybe not.
I’m not saying Barton is a walks machine, nor that he can mirror Youks career arc. Rather, Barton’s growth as a player has been far accelerated in comparison to Youks, and Youks power is certainly a real asset at this point in his career. Under the microscope, Barton might look worse than Youks did, but I’d have to argue that Youks really didn’t look that good to people who want power in a 1b. The fact that Youks came up as a 3b really masked the fact that he is now a 1b with surprising power.
Thus, if Barton just keeps doing his thing, I have no trouble with his presence in a Major League lineup. If Barton can begin to post an annual OBP in the 400 range, and elevate his SLG steadily as he hits his late 20s, he could become an integral part of any decent team.
Question for the readers: would you rather have Chris Davis or Daric Barton for the next 5 years?
Barton.
Lazy player comp:
High End: Barton becomes Mark Grace clone
Low End: Barton becomes Travis Ishkawa-ish
I never realized what amazing bat control Grace had (didn’t watch cubbies much). Almost twice as many strikeouts as walks in his career.
I think Barton is likely to walk more often and strikeout more often.
But its a good comp.
Forgot to add another fun fact about Grace.
24th round pick, in the majors 3 years later and just kept hitting (albeit without mountain-smashing power).
Nice when a 24th round pick can hold down first base for a decade and a half.
I have to disagree with Grace as a high-end comp. I know it was “lazy” but I’ll take the bait anyway :-)
Mark Grace, as I see it, is a fan favorite – and that often over-values his (actually) very valuable production. I love Mark Grace for what he provided: he was a fantastic hitter in many ways. If Barton becomes Grace, I’d be very happy in terms of production…
Since we cannot expect a career as long as Grace’s I’ll concede that it will be difficult to match Grace’s career-long productivity… So, if you’re saying that Grace is a ceiling for overall career value, I’ll give you that (and you can stop reading!)
Having said that, Grace cannot be a high-end comp for offense at this stage in Barton’s career. Barton’s ml bb% is over 15% as compared to Grace who was around 10%. That is dramatic. And Barton has done most of that when he was young for his leagues…
And if you just want to look at ML performance, despite Barton’s age and SSS, compare them right here on Fangraphs:
First BB%… then ISO. BB% is self-explanatory, and somewhat shocking – couple it to OBP and I think you’ll see Barton has a different skillset than Grace, even at this early stage of his career.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=56&playerid2=5928&playerid3=&position=1B&page=3&type=full
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=56&playerid2=5928&playerid3=&position=1B&page=6&type=full
I’ve posted ISO just to show that at an early age, Barton already displays a higher ISO than most seasons until Grace turned 33… That would be 10 years from now for Barton, plenty of time to build off his early performance.
Finally, I added in Youk’s wOBA as a comp with Grace and Barton… He has now put up a wOBA for two seasons higher than any of Grace’s seasons. He may not repeat it, and he may decline faster than Grace – but the point is that for Barton, the ceiling is higher than Grace, IMHO.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=56&playerid2=5928&playerid3=1935&position=1B&page=8&type=full
If Barton can start on that curve sooner than Youks, I think we’ll be looking a player who’s offense is far more valuable than Grace.
As for low end projections like Ishikawa: I don’t have enough to make this bet worth it for me… but I’d bet everything on Barton’s offense outperforming Ishikawa by a tremendously large margin.
I’m not the biggest barton fan, but this guy turned 24 yrs old in august. So you would hope there’s improvement there. If they dump him and he turns into a good player as expected before he’ll be labeled with the A’s lack of patience w/ players like an ethier, pena etc. I could see him in the 1b mold like a loney, kotchman, nick johnson type. Obviously he has prospects like wallace,carter, doolittle, etc ready to pounce if he has anymore setbacks.
Again, this “mold” isn’t bad – it’s just under-selling Barton a bit. And Nick Johnson, if I’m reading this correctly.
I do like Loney and Kotchman. I don’t see them as better than Barton, but I could see them as low-end projections: as in, if Barton doesn’t develop any more power, he should still be better than those guys. I’m still optimistic about Barton’s skilset, in comparison to theirs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=5928&playerid2=4556&playerid3=1930&position=1B&page=3&type=full
James Loney had a .350 BABIP at age 23 – so take that season with a grain of salt.
Nick Johnson: I hate discussing his career because of what it *could* have been… But this is more like what I’m saying for Daric Barton:
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=5928&playerid2=4556&playerid3=828&position=1B&page=8&type=full
I see Barton on the Nick Johnson express elevator: great walk rates, great OBP (better than Nick), good enough contact rates, and developing power leading to a *hopefully* decent ISO to go with everything else. That would add up to a wOBA like what Johnson SHOULD have put up in his prime years: 380-390.
That would be top 35 in the majors.
It will take an increase in power to get there, for sure, but that’s the whole point of this discussion – I’m speculating that his ceiling has to be set with power as a possibility, not projecting off what he’s done until now, only.
A’s didn’t give up on ethier, they traded him for bradley who helped the a’s to nearly going to the WS. Big difference.
I believe Barton’s last 3 months of AAA this year yielded a line something like .310/.440/.570… at age 23, of course.
So I have to agree strongly with Divakar that we really don’t know Barton’s power ceiling yet–though, if I had to pick a best-guess MLB hitting comp, it’d be Bobby Abreu (i.e. .300/.400/.500 guy in his prime).
Excellent writeup, DG!
It’s true DG is killing with these writeups.
Keep ‘em coming!
Just how out of the norm is a Youklis-type arc? There’s so much expectation put on players at certain ages/levels, but perhaps some guys just develop differently.
Seems the odds of a disciplined hitter growing into power is much better than a raw-power hitter growing into discipline.
That’s what I’d guess too.
But I really am just guessing.
I should clarify something: Youks, to me, is an outlier not because he generated late-blooming power from his patient approach. Like I said, I’d guess that happens for patient hitters reasonably frequently. That’s also why I like Barton so much…
Youks is an outlier because his approach is RIDICULOUSLY patient. Comparing anyone (Barton included) to Youks is risky – you rarely see such patience in young hitters.
Most observers couldn’t predict Youks power developing as it has, but everyone agreed he had all-time plate discipline.
I am hoping Barton can emulate that arc – but using Youks as a comparison is something a lot of stat guys find irresponsible.