Youks is an outlier because his approach is RIDICULOUSLY patient. Comparing anyone (Barton included) to Youks is risky – you rarely see such patience in young hitters.

Most observers couldn’t predict Youks power developing as it has, but everyone agreed he had all-time plate discipline.

I am hoping Barton can emulate that arc – but using Youks as a comparison is something a lot of stat guys find irresponsible.

But I really am just guessing.

Seems the odds of a disciplined hitter growing into power is much better than a raw-power hitter growing into discipline.

Keep ‘em coming!

I do like Loney and Kotchman. I don’t see them as better than Barton, but I could see them as low-end projections: as in, if Barton doesn’t develop any more power, he should still be better than those guys. I’m still optimistic about Barton’s skilset, in comparison to theirs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=5928&playerid2=4556&playerid3=1930&position=1B&page=3&type=full

James Loney had a .350 BABIP at age 23 – so take that season with a grain of salt.

Nick Johnson: I hate discussing his career because of what it *could* have been… But this is more like what I’m saying for Daric Barton:

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=5928&playerid2=4556&playerid3=828&position=1B&page=8&type=full

I see Barton on the Nick Johnson express elevator: great walk rates, great OBP (better than Nick), good enough contact rates, and developing power leading to a *hopefully* decent ISO to go with everything else. That would add up to a wOBA like what Johnson SHOULD have put up in his prime years: 380-390.

That would be top 35 in the majors.

It will take an increase in power to get there, for sure, but that’s the whole point of this discussion – I’m speculating that his ceiling has to be set with power as a possibility, not projecting off what he’s done until now, only.

Mark Grace, as I see it, is a fan favorite – and that often over-values his (actually) very valuable production. I love Mark Grace for what he provided: he was a fantastic hitter in many ways. If Barton becomes Grace, I’d be very happy in terms of production…

Since we cannot expect a career as long as Grace’s I’ll concede that it will be difficult to match Grace’s career-long productivity… So, if you’re saying that Grace is a ceiling for overall career value, I’ll give you that (and you can stop reading!)

Having said that, Grace cannot be a high-end comp for offense at this stage in Barton’s career. Barton’s ml bb% is over 15% as compared to Grace who was around 10%. That is dramatic. And Barton has done most of that when he was young for his leagues…

And if you just want to look at ML performance, despite Barton’s age and SSS, compare them right here on Fangraphs:

First BB%… then ISO. BB% is self-explanatory, and somewhat shocking – couple it to OBP and I think you’ll see Barton has a different skillset than Grace, even at this early stage of his career.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=56&playerid2=5928&playerid3=&position=1B&page=3&type=full

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=56&playerid2=5928&playerid3=&position=1B&page=6&type=full

I’ve posted ISO just to show that at an early age, Barton already displays a higher ISO than most seasons until Grace turned 33… That would be 10 years from now for Barton, plenty of time to build off his early performance.

Finally, I added in Youk’s wOBA as a comp with Grace and Barton… He has now put up a wOBA for two seasons higher than any of Grace’s seasons. He may not repeat it, and he may decline faster than Grace – but the point is that for Barton, the ceiling is higher than Grace, IMHO.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=56&playerid2=5928&playerid3=1935&position=1B&page=8&type=full

If Barton can start on that curve sooner than Youks, I think we’ll be looking a player who’s offense is far more valuable than Grace.

As for low end projections like Ishikawa: I don’t have enough to make this bet worth it for me… but I’d bet everything on Barton’s offense outperforming Ishikawa by a tremendously large margin.

So I have to agree strongly with Divakar that we really don’t know Barton’s power ceiling yet–though, if I had to pick a best-guess MLB hitting comp, it’d be Bobby Abreu (i.e. .300/.400/.500 guy in his prime).

Excellent writeup, DG!

24th round pick, in the majors 3 years later and just kept hitting (albeit without mountain-smashing power).

Nice when a 24th round pick can hold down first base for a decade and a half.

I think Barton is likely to walk more often and strikeout more often.
But its a good comp.