Comments on: Don’t Be Silly, The A’s Don’t Steal Bases http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/dont-be-silly-the-as-dont-steal-bases/ Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:15:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: NBH http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/dont-be-silly-the-as-dont-steal-bases/#comment-285 NBH Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:10:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=815#comment-285 Yes, but a great deal of the book was spent explaining why OBP is so important (i.e. the goal of a hitter is to avoid outs...high OBP players avoid outs the best) and why other stratgeies are beneficial (taking pitches in order to get you to the most beneficial hitting counts, stealing bases only when you are successful 75% of the time). The concept of the book was finding underpriced value and thinking outside the norm, but the book definitely emphasized how the A's stats people crunch numbers to identify what they consider valuable (e.g. OBP, SB success rate, batting average during each pitching count). As for bunting, I remember the book clearly stating that it was almost always a bad idea to trade an out for a base. On many occasions Moneyball was an activist for certain strategies (e.g. selling the closer) although yes, the underlying concept was finding pricing inefficiencies. If OBP becomes overpriced in the market and speed underpriced, the A's will STILL encourage their players to be patient/selective and they will STILL tell players not to run unless they can get a base 75% of the time because that is what the math told them to do. Moneyball preached questioning traditional baseball authority and using the numbers to find out what was really important. Yes, but a great deal of the book was spent explaining why OBP is so important (i.e. the goal of a hitter is to avoid outs…high OBP players avoid outs the best) and why other stratgeies are beneficial (taking pitches in order to get you to the most beneficial hitting counts, stealing bases only when you are successful 75% of the time). The concept of the book was finding underpriced value and thinking outside the norm, but the book definitely emphasized how the A’s stats people crunch numbers to identify what they consider valuable (e.g. OBP, SB success rate, batting average during each pitching count). As for bunting, I remember the book clearly stating that it was almost always a bad idea to trade an out for a base. On many occasions Moneyball was an activist for certain strategies (e.g. selling the closer) although yes, the underlying concept was finding pricing inefficiencies. If OBP becomes overpriced in the market and speed underpriced, the A’s will STILL encourage their players to be patient/selective and they will STILL tell players not to run unless they can get a base 75% of the time because that is what the math told them to do. Moneyball preached questioning traditional baseball authority and using the numbers to find out what was really important.

]]> By: JT http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/dont-be-silly-the-as-dont-steal-bases/#comment-269 JT Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:47:13 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=815#comment-269 The idea that the "A's don't steal bases" is just another in the long line of misunderstandings regarding the entire Moneyball concept (just as the idea that Moneyball = OBP is a misunderstanding). Moneyball is not about acquiring a certain kind of player, or employing a certain offensive strategy. In fact, it has nothing do to with baseball at all. Moneyball is a business strategy that involves finding opportunities for arbitrage. If OBP is undervalued, then Moneyball would tell you to sign players with high OBPs. If defense is undervalued, then Moneyball would tell you to sign good defensive players. If speed is undervalued, then Moneyball would tell you to sign a base-stealer. Similarly, Moneyball does not dictate that a team shouldn't steal or bunt. All it says is that a team should only steal or bunt when doing so increases that team's chances of scoring. In the case of the A's, they generally weren't willing to incur the risk of stealing bases when they had a bunch of plodding, high-OBP sluggers (this, of course, makes sense... if you can only be successful 60% of the time, it's not smart to steal). However, now that the A's have more players with higher SB-success rates, they will steal because the risk is worth the reward. The idea that the A's, as an organization, have decided that stealing bases is too risky, is simply a misunderstanding of the entire Moneyball concept. People need to stop associating "Moneyball" with specific strategies, and understand that Moneyball is a guiding principle that the A's (and many other teams) use to form their specific strategies. The idea that the “A’s don’t steal bases” is just another in the long line of misunderstandings regarding the entire Moneyball concept (just as the idea that Moneyball = OBP is a misunderstanding).

Moneyball is not about acquiring a certain kind of player, or employing a certain offensive strategy. In fact, it has nothing do to with baseball at all. Moneyball is a business strategy that involves finding opportunities for arbitrage. If OBP is undervalued, then Moneyball would tell you to sign players with high OBPs. If defense is undervalued, then Moneyball would tell you to sign good defensive players. If speed is undervalued, then Moneyball would tell you to sign a base-stealer.

Similarly, Moneyball does not dictate that a team shouldn’t steal or bunt. All it says is that a team should only steal or bunt when doing so increases that team’s chances of scoring. In the case of the A’s, they generally weren’t willing to incur the risk of stealing bases when they had a bunch of plodding, high-OBP sluggers (this, of course, makes sense… if you can only be successful 60% of the time, it’s not smart to steal). However, now that the A’s have more players with higher SB-success rates, they will steal because the risk is worth the reward. The idea that the A’s, as an organization, have decided that stealing bases is too risky, is simply a misunderstanding of the entire Moneyball concept.

People need to stop associating “Moneyball” with specific strategies, and understand that Moneyball is a guiding principle that the A’s (and many other teams) use to form their specific strategies.

]]>