Draft Dilemma: The 4th Pick
Each year, there’s always one pick in the draft that always seems to cause the biggest stir amongst the fantasy community and leads to the greatest number of emails seeking added opinions. It used to be closer to the tail end of the first round when an owner was deciding between whichever offensive treat was left or the number one overall starting pitcher. This year, I’ve received a number of emails from people with the 4th pick. People with the 8th and 9th picks are rolling their eyes right now, but truly, the 4th pick can cause quite the conundrum.
If we’re looking at ADP rankings and assume that, for the most part, the top three picks are Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols (RotoGraph Reader Mock Draft aside), then the fourth pick has a number of options and a variety of directions in which to go. Who wouldn’t want a big, mashing first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez or Joey Votto? The position gets unusually thin past the first six guys. And of course I’d love to have a rotation anchored by Justin Verlander and his awesome strikeouts an miniscule ratios. Or what about some 30/50 deliciousness from Jacoby Ellsbury? All sounds enticing, but for me, there are just two ways to go…
Jose Bautista (3B, OF) or Troy Tulowitzki (SS)?
Both are top performers at their respective positions. Both take care of the position scarcity concern. And both will be gone before you even think about your next pick. But which one do you take…?
Tulo’s a beast, no question about it. To have .300-30-100 from your shortstop, arguably one of the thinnest positions out there, you’re way ahead of the game. Some people will chime in about potential injuries, but you know what…? There’s a potential injury waiting to happen to each and every major leaguer out there. This guy is a true, all-around asset. He’s got power, decent speed, a high average/OBP, and makes outstanding contact at the plate. People will flat-out stare at you in disbelief, mouth agape, if you pass him over.
Bautista is coming off of another fine season that saw him hit 43 home runs with 103 RBI, 105 runs scored and a slash line of .302/.447/.608. The counting stats were all down from the year before, but his average was 40 points higher, his OBP was insane thanks to a mammoth 20.2% walk rate, and he kicked in the same nine stolen bases. This year, I expect roughly the same, but with a lower batting average. Still, colossal numbers and stats that are always highly coveted.
But what picking Bautista also adds is position flexibility on your roster. The fact that he has outfield eligibility opens your draft up that much more. When you’re looking at your third, fourth or even fifth pick, elite third basemen like Ryan Zimmerman or Pablo Sandoval still make sense for you as you move Bautista to your outfield. Even out there he’s a top five option….heck, top three is you really look at it.
Yes, if you took Tulo with the pick and wanted to snatch up a Starlin Castro or Elvis Andrus, you could and fill your middle infield slot, but it just doesn’t make as much sense.
Again, both outstanding players. A very tough decision. But I would choose Bautista if the decision was mine. I just like having that flexibility over my next few picks.
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Um, what? If I could pick one single thing about the 2012 draft that’s achieved the greatest consensus, it’s that Kemp, Cabrera, Pujols, Bautista and Tulo are the top five picks.
Mock Draft Central’s ADP for the top five are 1.75, 2.42, 2.84, 4.34, and 4.61 respectively. After that, the consensus is much lower: the next highest ADP is 8.96 for Jacoby Ellsbury.
Elsewhere on Rotographs, Chad Young wrote an article about the top 5: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/reshuffling-the-top-five/
He observed that “while there is plenty of disagreement on who should get taken when, there is a clear break between the top five and everyone else” and that they “have established themselves as the top options in the minds of the populace.”
Maybe the choice between Tulo and Bautista is a big struggle for some. But for me it’s much tougher at pick #6, where you have six guys closely scrunched together according to ADP: Ellsbury, Upton, Verlander, Gonzalez, Cano.
I agree that the top 5 is set and Chad’s article was right on the money. I’ve just received a number of “Bautista or Tulo” emails and figured I’d answer them all here.
For me, actually, the 6th pick would be easy. Votto or A-Gone, but most likely A-Gone. Both are elite power guys with strong averages and if you look at first base, it gets surprisingly thin once you move past the top 6. Position scarcity in the infield can be handled in the next two rounds.
That’s fine, but I think pretty much every player from #6-12 has *some sort* of compelling argument. What’s interesting to me is not the arguments in favor of player X in isolation, but its relative merit against the arguments for other players that people will inevitably bring up. After all, there’s a huge dropoff after Cano, too. You could argue that Ellsbury or Granderson is the essential pick because most leagues have 5 OF slots.
So maybe A-Gon is the clear choice for you, but for many others it isn’t, and of course everyone is going to say *something or other* about why Granderson or Verlander or A-Gon is the best #6 pick considering positional scarcity or what have you.
I would just humbly submit that, seeing as most of the internet already agrees with you about Bautista, much more than they agree with you about A-Gon, we would probably be more interested in reading your “Why I’m picking A-Gon at #6″ article.
Agree with Glenstein – this article should be about the #6 pick, because there’s a lot of consensus re: the top 5.
Am I the only person who thinks Matt Kemp is a worse pick than Tulo or Bautista? Sure, you get the steals with Kemp, but Tulo and Bautista have higher projected wOBAs at thinner positions. There’s no way Kemp repeats a .380 BABIP next year.
+1 Right here. Kemp’s certainly in my Top 5 this year, but he’s #5.
Most leagues don’t score based on wOBA. Even if you knock Kemp’s average down so that it’s below Tulo’s he’s still likely to outdo him in Rs, RBIs, and possibly HRs, not to mention the huge difference in SBs.
Just because everyone’s saying Kemp’s going to go 50/50 this year, doesn’t make it anywhere near true. As stated in the “Reshuffling the top 5 article” (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/reshuffling-the-top-five/), some expect as low as 25/25 for Kemp. You don’t just “knock down” average. Those excessive balls falling into play turned into outs also knock down R’s, RBI’s, and SB’s too. Give me Tulo’s almost-guaranteed 30 HRs and double-digit steals and .300 AVG at SS over a 30/30 OF. Maybe its just personal preference. Maybe it’s society.
I love this article. But I feel more confused that before. I have literally been going back and forth for the last month after finding out that I have the 4th pick in my upcoming draft. If Braun gets past this 50 game suspension I dont have any worries about the top 4 options.
However, I have been debating mostly between Votto and Bautista. I am in a keeper league and I will start the year with Wieters (C), A. Cabrera (SS), and M. Young (1b,2b,3b).
With Michael Young on my roster to start the draft I have extreme flexibilty so I can draft the best player possible. But I realize Young could be best utilized at 2b. Should I take Votto & possibly Zimmerman,Pablo,AROD,Youk or take Bautista & possibly Konerko,Butler,Freeman?
I’d get Votto and hope 3b works out magically on its own. The group of Konerko, Butler, and Freeman is slim pickings.
Any chance at Eric Hosmer?
No chance for Hosmer as someone else as him on their team as a keeper.
Thanks for the advice.
I was leaning towards Votto, you gotta love his consistancy. Plus, even though Bautista has done it for the last 2 years +… I still dont trust that it will last for some reason. His BABIP from last year shows he was a little lucky and most definitely wont hit .300 again this year.
I still don’t see much reason to pick Tulo over Cano. In a league with a MI the scarcity of SS just isn’t really any different than 2B. I think it is the fact people think Tulo is an automatic 100-30-100 player when the reality is he has never actually gone 100-30-100 in the same year yet. People also don’t realize he just isn’t running much anymore so 10 SB isn’t even a given anymore.
Shortstop options after Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are terrifying. And we’re assuming Reyes does even a partial repeat of his 2011 season, but to me, his ’11 season was far more fluke than reality, so it’s really just Tulo and Ramirez. Castro and Andrus are nice players, but if Tulo and Hanley are $80 Filet Mignons, Castro and Andrus are $12 steaks from Applebees. Second base isn’t nearly as bad. Cano is the gold standard, followed closely by Kinsler and Pedroia. And nobody is getting acid reflux from owning Weeks, Utley, Uggla, Kendrick, Phillips, Zobrist or Dustin Ackley.
I don’t comment much on these sites but the 6th overall pick is by far the worst pick. With the top 5 set in stone you have to pikc your poison (bad term) with whoever is left on the board. Although Joey Votto is still great.
What about Prince Fielder at 6? 40+ HR, 120+ RBI and a .280 avg. How can one go wrong with him there?