Draft Order: The Catchers
As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here. As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.
The Top Targets:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota (.438 wOBA)
2. Victor Martinez, Boston (.375 wOBA)
3. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.359 wOBA)
It should come as no shock that the reigning American League MVP is the top target amongst catchers. Mauer’s value should be helped by a full season from Justin Morneau, as well as the additions of second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom will reduce the playing time for the offensive vacuum known as Nick Punto. A better-balanced lineup can only help Mauer’s RBI and run totals.
Martinez is a great player to have in your fantasy lineup because he is eligible at both catcher and first base, which gives you added flexibility. A full season in Boston (He was traded from Cleveland midway through 2009) should have a positive effect on his numbers – especially in terms of RBI opportunities, and he should see better pitches now that he has more protection in the lineup.
McCann got off to a slow start in ’09 and April was pretty much a write-off thanks to vision problems, which are no longer a concern. On the downside, the Braves lineup is not significantly better than it was in ’09 so he will have limited protection in the lineup if Chipper Jones and/or Troy Glaus start to show their age.
The Next Best Thing:
4. Jorge Posada, New York AL (.378 wOBA)
5. Matt Wieters, Baltimore (.330 wOBA)
6. Miguel Montero, Arizona (.357 wOBA)
7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles NL (.307 wOBA)
8. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles AL (.362 wOBA)
Clearly, Posada had an outstanding year in ’09 but he appeared in just 111 games and the 38-year-old can’t swim in the fountain of youth forever (although New York should obviously try bottling whatever Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are drinking). On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Wieters is just coming into his own. You even might be able to draft the catcher in a favorable spot if your fantasy baseball owners are still feeling let down by his ’09 season. Wieters had an encouraging debut for a 23-year-old catcher, but expectations were incredibly (and unfairly) high for him.
Montero seized the starting gig away from Chris Snyder in ’09 thanks to an injury but fantasy managers would probably feel a little bit better if Snyder was off-loaded to another club in spring training (after proving his health). Martin appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness a couple years ago, but his power has dried up. Still, there aren’t many backstops that can steal you 10-20 bases in a season and he’s reportedly bulked up a bit in an effort to hit more taters. Napoli would perhaps be more deserving of a higher ranking if A) Jeff Mathis projected to have fewer at-bats, or B) The club would give more at-bats to Napoli at DH. Unfortunately, the addition of former Yankee Hideki Matsui will eat up most of the DH opportunities.
The Leftovers:
9. Geovany Soto, Chicago NL (.310 wOBA)
10. Chris Iannetta, Colorado (.346 wOBA)
11. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland (.321 wOBA)
12. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (.308 wOBA)
13. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (.337 wOBA)
14. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh (.306 wOBA)
15. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago AL (.326 wOBA)
Of the “leftovers,” the highest potentials come from Soto, Iannetta, and Doumit. Soto was not in great playing shape last season and he’s reportedly motivated to recapture his past Rookie of the Year glory. Iannetta has the offensive bonus of playing in Colorado, but the free agent signing of Miguel Olivo could mean fewer at-bats, unless the youngster breaks out in a big way. Doumit’s ’09 season was ruined by injuries and he appeared in 75 games. He has good power for a catcher but he’s also hurt by a below-average offense in Pittsburgh.
Up Next: The First Basemen
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I think you mean Hideki Matsui, not the recently departed Vlad Guerrero.
You are correct… that’s what happens when you’re typing quickly after just viewing depth charts for ’09 and ’10. Thanks.
Seems Suzuki is underrated. I’d take him over Posada, since we’re not playing for last year’s stats. ;-)
I’d have Posada down to at least #10.
Jeez, I guess this is why we can’t let Canadians write about baseball. Juuuust joking with ya… I believe the man who will be taking DH at bats in Los Angeles is the reigning World Series MVP, Hideki Matsui. Vladamir Guerrero will be DHing in Arlington.
Aaaaand this is what happens when I read an article, leave the room, and then write my response 20 minutes later…
Can you include potential dollar value? With Yahoo!’s addition of auction leagues and their ever improving fantasy interface, I feel like a good handful of people are going to be switching over to that. $ value is incredibly useful since not everyone will be doing snake drafts.
This is one of the things I’m working on for the site, but I don’t want to rush them out there.
Speaking of the top target, Does anyone think Target field will have any impact on Mauer’s numbers? He’s a pure hitter but maybe the first month or two of home games will be cold enough to suppress the numbers a bit? And what about those humid nights in the summer? Although the outfield dimensions are about the same as the dome. Not sure how high the wall is out in right at Target though. I’ll be interested to see how it plays and how the players adjust to it. But Mauer is pure as they come, so I doubt his fantasy value takes a huge hit…lest we forget, Mauer didnt’ even play until May 01 last year.
I know that 1) it’s a rate stat and may not translate to counting stats until he gets more consistent playing time, and 2) we need to see if he can maintain anywhere near this level, but in the Phillies last 76 games (incl 15 postseason), Carlos Ruiz has a .972 OPS (second to Howard on the team). Someone to keep in mind for the late rounds, perhaps.
Posada is too high on this list for me. I realize he had a good 2009 season, but he is 38 years old after all. I did a quick search at Baseball-Reference for catchers 38 or older with 350+ PA. There have been 17 in history, with these being the top 5, based on OPS:
Carlton Fisk, 1989, 41 yrs old: .293/.356/.475, .830 OPS (419 PA)
Carlton Fisk, 1990, 42 yrs old: .285/.378/.451, .829 OPS (521 PA)
Gabby Hartnett, 1939, 38 yrs old: .278/.358/.467, .825 OPS (351 PA)
Calrton Fisk, 1987, 39 yrs old: .256/.321/.460, .782 OPS (508 PA)
Fred Jacklitsch, 1914, 38 yrs old: .276/.376/.380, .756 OPS (396 PA)
It guts ugly quick after these five. Carlton Fisk stands out both in production and playing time.
Posada is projected for an OPS around .840 from Bill James, Marcel, and the Fans (CHONE has him at .802). If Posada were to achieve that, it would be the highest OPS ever for a catcher as old as 38 (with 350+ PA). It would be a historical achievement. The odds are highly-stacked against him.
Also, how much playing time would you expect from a 38-year-old catcher? Last year, he started 88 games at catcher. There’s just too much downside risk there for me. I’ll take my chances on such “leftovers” as Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta, and Ryan Doumit before taking Posada.
I always feel like the main force behind the Yanks championship run is their witch doctors
not the infinite depths of daddy steinbrenners pockets?
I’m willing to eat up a bench seat to a back-up C when you can combine the numbers and get the added ABs. i.e. if you combined Oliva’s and Iannetta’s numbers from last season you have 70 Runs, 30 HR, 90 RBI. not bad. The BA is .240.
(These numbers are the combination of their seasonal totals and then adjusted for 524 AB)
Soto is not simply better motivated, he was also one of last years most noticeable BABIP victims. Unfortunately, people buying into his ‘best-shaper’ status will put him back on their radars (right result; wrong reason).