Draft Order: The Shortstops
Over the last little while we’ve been looking at suggested draft orders for each fantasy position. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen.
The Top Targets:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)
There is a pretty big drop-off after the first three shortstops on the list. There’s actual a drop after the first two. Ramirez has seen a drop in steals over the past three seasons – from 51 to 35 to 27, as he’s moved into more of a run-producing role, which has hurt his overall game a bit. With that said, he still batted .342 with 24 homers and he drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career. He’s still a stud if he doesn’t steal 30 bases and he scores fewer runs.
Tulowitzki took a leap into fantasy stardom in ’09 with a 30-20 season and 100 runs scored. He still has room to grow and we could see a .300 average in 2010, along with 100 RBI. The fact that he took more walks last season (11.6 BB%) is a good sign.
Rollins had an “off year” and he was still a 20-30 player with 100 runs scored. He doesn’t help you in batting average, but he has a great lineup around him so he’s going to be valuable even if his recent struggles are actually regression showing its ugly face.
The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)
5. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
6. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
7. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)
Jeter posted the third highest wOBA of any shortstop in the Majors last season but he sits at No. 4 on the list, in part due to his age (36 this season). We don’t expect him to steal 30 bases again and the 18 homers were probably a bit of a fluke (or ball-park induced, as 13 came at home).
Likewise, Bartlett’s ’09 season was probably a career year in terms of power and batting average. He’ll probably continue to be a solid contributor with the bat, but definitely not a top target. Reyes gets bumped down the list due to his injury/health woes. We really have no idea at this point when his season will begin. And much of his value is tied around his base running, so it will be interesting to see how he rebounds in that area.
I’m definitely not a big Alexei Ramirez fan but he obviously has value as someone that can be a 15-15 player with a .260-.280 average. He also potentially offers some versatility depending on how the Sox club uses him. Drew is just frustrating. He has the talent to be a Top 5 shortstop but he just cannot put it together consistently. But he is entering his age-27 season, so maybe something will click. Drew has 20-homer potential.
The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
10. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)
11. Yunel Escobar , Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
12. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
13. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Toronto (.354 wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)
A lot of these guys are very similar in value so you could really rank them about 15 different ways. Furcal doesn’t run enough anymore to be truly coveted. But if he can play 150 games, he could score 100 runs with a good, young offense behind him. It’s hard to know what to expect from Andrus this year… and we can only hope that he avoids the dreaded sophomore curse. Don’t overpay for him. Escobar has value as someone that can hit 10-15 homers and bat .270-.300 but he’s not a run producer and he doesn’t steal bases.
Cabrera hits for a hollow .300 average but he went down with an injury today so we’ll have to await word on its severity. Tejada’s in his declining years a move back to the American League probably is not going to help. Scutaro is most assuredly coming off of a career year, but his numbers will probably dip less now that he’s in a more potent lineup thanks to his move from Toronto to Boston. He could score 100 runs at the top of that lineup. This is the year I’d like to see Aybar use his full talent and steal 30+ bases with 100 runs scored; he’s my personal shortstop sleeper pick for 2010.
Up Next: The Outfielders
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Where is Ryan Theriot?
And I’m not sure how Elvis Andrus warrants inclusion but not Everth Cabrera. If anything, Cabrera seems a little better, with a better chance to lead off.
No Everth Cabrera is bad enough but no Alcides Escobar?
I like him over Andrus and he’s going much later in the mocks I’ve seen.
What is Jose Reyes’ wOBA? Plus, I think Yunel should be at the top of the leftovers.
Drew looks to be ranked a little high even though he is more focused the spring. If you look at his ’08 numbers, he’s Asdrubal Caberea with a dozens more HRs, few steals, and a few less points in BA. Plus he plays for AZ. Scuturo will score more runs simply playing in Beantown. Ben Zobrist is SS eligible is was had the forth best numbers for SS last season. Aybar and Andrus could switch rankings. JJ Hardy. What happen here?
He will look to rebound. But the Sleeper to keep an eye on is Ian Desmond.
…oh, and Reyes; a car wreck for those who drafted him already. To bad Alberto Callaspo isn’t SS eligible.
This year has me struggling to choose a SS. Looks to be a crap shoot.
I’ve been following Desmond too. I’m just not sure he’s draftable in my shallow 10 team.
Great call on Desmond. Tough not to think about making him the best leftover, more likely the spoils of Friday night at a restaurant than the day after meatloaf night. His spring has been good enough to make Jim Riggleman rethink an Adam Kennedy Christian Guzman middle infield.
Everth could easily steal 40 bases this year, that has to be worth something in the top 15.
Everth Cabrera was extremely terrible as a leadoff hitter last season. Small sample size, but maybe he’s going to be more effective as a #2 hitter or down in the bottom third of the lineup.
I don’t agree. Even though he doesn’t hit for a high average and probably never will, his combination of blazing speed and high walk rate made him a pretty good leadoff hitter. In fact, his OBP was just under what Jacoby Ellsbury’s was last year.
where would Ben Zobrist fit in here? Number 5 probably?
No Alcides?
I’d most likely prefer to take a chance on Alcides or Everth (lucky these guys have unique first names to go with their common last names) than someone like Scutaro. BTW, Scutaro is in Boston now (correct in the paragraph but not in the list), and I doubt he bats at the top of the order with Ellsbury and Pedroia around. Probably hitting ninth, which could still lead to good run-scoring opportunities, but fewer plate appearances.
I’m all over 2 names not on this list: Ben Zobrist (SS-eligible in most leagues) and Sean Rodriguez as a flyer (2B-eligible now, to-be SS-eligible)
Yesterday, Theriot was named CHI’s everyday leadoff hitter. If he gets his steals up to 25+, and maybe hits around 10 HRs, he creeps into the discussion here.
Hello can I reference some of the material from this blog if I link back to you?