Draft Order: The Third Basemen
As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.
As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.
The Top Targets:
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York AL (.405)
2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (.380)
3. David Wright, New York NL (.368)
The top two players on this list are probably no-brainers. Rodriguez is coming off of an injury-delayed season but there is no reason to expect him to have any kind of setbacks related to his hip. I would certainly expect a return to his .300 batting average, as well as 35-40 homers. If healthy, a total surpassing 100 RBI is almost a given when you look at the lineup around him.Toss in 100 runs scored and 15 steals for good measure. And if you’re playing in an on-base league, don’t be surprised if he walks 100+ times given his improvements in that area last season (15.0% walk rate).
Longoria has played two (mostly) full seasons in the Majors and he has produced ISO rates of .259 and .245, which just goes to show that the kid has massive power. He’s also good for 100+ runs and RBI totals. Where he loses a step to A-Rod (in traditional leagues) is in the stolen base department and the batting average. Longoria, though, is still just 24 – 10 full years younger than Rodriguez.
Wright had a pretty bad season in ’09; his wOBA drop from .420 in 2008 to .397 to .368 in ’09. On the plus side, he’s entering his age-27 season so we can hope for an improvement… The biggest head-scratcher is the sudden drop in power, which many blamed on the stadium but he also did not hit bombs on the road (five homers, .144 ISO). He still has a good shot at being a 20-20 third baseman, but he may struggle to hit .300 again; his BABIP was .394 in ’09, which helped him hit .307 despite a huge jump in strikeout rate from 18.8 to 26.2%. Hopefully the addition of Jason Bay will help, as well as a return to form by both Jose Reyes and (eventually) Carlos Beltran.
The Next Best Thing:
4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (.377)
5. Mark Reynolds, Arizona (.381)
6. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (.396)
7. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago NL (.392)
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.358)
You could argue for Zimmerman over Wright given the ’09 season but I like the Mets lineup better than that of the Nats – which will impact run and RBI totals. As well, Zimmerman is likely to hit for a similar average but he won’t nab 15-20 steals. The nice thing about fantasy baseball is that, in most leagues, you can enjoy Reynold’s 35-40 homers and 15-20 steals without putting up with his 200 strikeouts. On the down side, he’s probably going to hit about .240 thanks to his 38% strikeout rate.
This winter, a lot has been made about Sandoval’s switch in approach and weight-loss program… Honestly that worries me a bit. I would toss him into one of those “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” categories. Too often, an unorthodox player gets screwed up when he tries to appease too many people. Hopefully I’m wrong, though, and he goes out again and hits .330 with 20+ homers. I can also hope that the addition of free agents Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will improve the lineup, but I have a feeling their impacts will be minimal. Still just 31, it feels like Ramirez has been around forever. Injuries limited him to just 82 games in ’09 but he almost tied his career-high batting average with a mark of .317. On the down side, his ISO rate dropped below .229 for the first time in five years.
After scoring one of the top free agent contracts in the winter of 2009-10, Figgins stands to be a little over-hyped in fantasy drafts. I’m also a little concerned that he’s eventually going to become Luis Castillo all over again as an aging speedster who loses his wheels half way through his contact (although really Castillo had lost them BEFORE the ridiculous contract). Figgins is still stealing 30+ bases each season but we have seen a decrease in his success rates over the past three seasons. He’s also topped a .300 batting average just once in his career and that was thanks to a .391 BABIP. Hopefully you’re getting enough power elsewhere in your fantasy lineup because you’re not going to get it from Figgins (.096 ISO) in 2010.
The Leftovers:
9. Michael Young, Texas (.385)
10. Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (.351)
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta (.354)
12. Casey Blake, Los Angeles NL (.354)
13. Adrian Beltre, Boston (.305)
14. Mark DeRosa, San Francisco (.327)
15. Alex Gordon, Kansas City (.321)
Young is no longer a lock for 200+ hits in a season but he’s still good for a .300 average and he increased his power output in ’09. Beckham is expected to play second base for Chicago in ’09 but he spent most of his time at the hot corner last season so he should open the year in many leagues as third-base eligible. It would be nice to see the club give him time at both positions to help his fantasy value, but it’s probably not going to happen.
Jones topped 140 games played for the first time in six seasons back in ’09 so durability is definitely not his strong suit. His offense is also slipping so don’t expect him to hit 25+ homers or bat above .300. Beltre could see some improvement in his offensive numbers thanks to his new home park (and lineup). With that said, his OPS was .683 in ’09. Ouch.
As long as Blake has company in the form of Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, he should continue to see some good pitches. However, he’s turning 37 this year so regression is coming… DeRosa is a nice little player because he offers some offense, as well as versatility. I wouldn’t rely on the 35-year-old for a full-time job in your lineup, though. Gordon is in need of a bounce-back year but he’s already going to be behind the eight-ball thanks to a broken thumb suffered recently.
Up Next: The Shortstops
6
I’d be curious to see what you think of two third basemen everyone is leaving off their lists (probably because they traditionally have been MI), Miguel Tejada and Placido Polanco. I’m guessing you probably slot them in with The Leftovers, though I wonder if Polanco could have high enough run production in that Philly lineup to bump him up to the middle tier…
I would also be curious to hear what you think of Kouzmanoff. He doesn’t have a great OBP but his home/road splits seem to project someone who could have a break out year now that he isn’t at PETCO.
Except that he’s heading from one offensively suppressive park in a weaker league to a slightly less offensively suppressive park in a tougher league.
I think you’re underestimating how much of a buzz-kill PETCO is for hitters. The difference between the Coliseum and PETCO in HR-rate last year (.206) mirrored the difference between Yankee Stadium and Citi Field (.204). Plus, the left-field wall (where Kouz hit all but two of his 2009 HRs) is 14-feet shorter in Oakland.
Great call, Frank. To fully appreciate Kevin Kouzmanoff and his potential, you need to put the stat sheet away, but just for a moment. You see a player whose work ethic and character are above average, headed to a team which traditionally asks their players to hit while fielding their position, as opposed to hitting and fielding a position. His starkly improved defense will be a bonus for such a young team, allowing any slump to be a little bit more pallatable to everyone involved — fans, his new teammates, and his employers. This will keep the pressure off while he swings a powerful stick. Getting an opportunity to play for a new team while not drastically changing his location could be a boon for kooz. Now, feel free to consider the home and away splits and how they will play in a park which is slightly more condusive to a career ISO of .174 than Petco Field. His being 28 years old is no reason to think that a significant, sustained offensive breakthrough is not in store. Hopefully, however, he has a modest spring, keeping him off the radar of the “fantasy professionals,” or those paid to write about fantasy sports, in turn diminishing the value of keen insight such as yours, Frank.
There’s been debate here whether 3B is deeper than 2B, and I just don’t see it. The difference is draft position, where even marginal 3B will be in greater demand.
After Zimmerman I see nothing but risky picks (again, for where they’d need drafted).
Reynolds is a 3-4 category producer—I credit him with 4 but subtract one for his average.
Sandoval is on a weak team and needs to hit over .320 to keep his value up.
Aramis isn’t over-the-hill old, but what exactly should be expected health and stat wise?
Figgins has his risks. Young could be great or subpar. Beckham who knows. Chipper, Blake, DeRosa, Gordon?? No thanks.
Beltre I’m interested in, and I’d just as soon wait for Cantu or Ian Stewart than take a risky 3B in the top 12 rounds.
I’ll be looking for Longo/Wright/Zimmerman early, maybe Aramis if he comes at a discount, then start looking at the position again after Chipper comes off the board.
I heard read Figgins is moving to second and Jose Lopez to third. I think that waters down third even more, but after reading Nelbowski’s comment, I realize that I know nothing about this game.
The Giants are not weak, that’s for sure.
Tejada is still eligible at SS in most leagues and will probably be drafted for that, or as a very solid bench U spot who can play multiple positions. as far as Kouzmanoff expect very similiar numbers from him in OBP and BA but probably a bit of a bonus in the RBI category.
Another article on Yahoo made the best point that Wakamatsu was one of the least aggressive managers on the bases, so that should really cut into Figgins’ speed numbers. That would drop him down a tier.
I’m not sure he’ll have a choice in the matter…given their (likely) need to create run scoring opps.
Last year I’m not sure he had much speed to use!
If Josh Bell gets called up mid-season, is he a decent option at third?
Where’s Youk? He’s 3B eligible in most leagues isn’t he? I’m debating where to take him, probably somewhere between Z-Man and Kung-Fu Panda? After reading Jimbo’s comments I’d probably take him after Zimm.
Maybe I’m giving a rookie too much credit and not calculating for a sophomore slump, but I think this is way undervalueing Beckham.
I like your placement for Youk. I don’t expect 162 games, but he should be a solid pick. More injury risk than performance risk…so at least there’s replacement stats to pick up if he isn’t playing.
JIMBO: “I’ll be looking for Longo/Wright/Zimmerman early, maybe Aramis if he comes at a discount, then start looking at the position again after Chipper comes off the board.”
That is almost exactly how I am looking at Third Base this year with the exception of Zimmerman. Unless Zimmerman drops (like mid to late 4th rd) I don’t want him… But give me some David Wright in the mid-2nd round all day long. Him dropping to the 2nd round this year reminds me of Utley last year. Wright is definately capable of putting up .300-100-25-100-25 and getting something like that out of your 2nd round pick is what wins leagues…
Agreed. I like Longo/Wright/Z-Man, but if I miss on those guys, Plan B is to ignore the position until late. Pairing Beltre or Cantu with the high upside of Chris Davis is more appealing than using a valuable early/mid round pick on most of the other guys.
Another name to keep in mind, Jose Lopez may be moving over to 3rd. He and Figgins should both have eligibility at 2B and 3B. With 3B arguably being more shallow than 2B this year and the added flexibility, Lopez rises a little in my book. He should be a solid late-middle round option.
i will gladly take Panda, thank you.
unless something falls in my lap i will most likely be pairing chipper with beltre or davis. I think beltre going to jokepark in a stacked lineup could make for a super sleeper. Davis flashed talent after being called back up last season. Last season i bought into the bill james projections and took Davis before established players. I’m not that lofty anymore but i see a budget mark reynolds with first and third eligibility. He won’t steal much but if he can get his average back to 260 or 270 like he showed in 08 he could be a real bargain. Not sure where all the Chipper hate is coming from. Dude is the best switch hitter of all time, face of a franchise, and in my opinion a second or third ballot HOF’r. Two seasons ago there were droves of articles speculating if he could hit .400. Yes, he is an injury risk but paired with davis or beltre, i think i can get elite performance. While on the topic of elite performance, compare Zimmerman and Longoria on baseball reference. They had the exact same season. Zimmerman is elite.
Chipper isn’t a first-ballot HOFer?
Just starting this year’s research but one thing sticks out to me. Regardless of position, with Lopez you have a 26 year-old whose HR totals the last 3 years have gone from 11 to 17 to 25 and who is being projected to bat clean-up in a lineup with 3 strong OBP’s hitting ahead of him.
This is the most harmful thing that you can do to your body. Your body needs lots of minerals and vitamins to function properly. Suddenly, you go on a starvation diet supposedly well calculated to lose weight.
So you won’t be drafting Panda, then?
At those “prices,” I’m all over Michael Young.
Cantu had 100 RBIs last year.
I just drafted in a 12-team mixed this afternoon, and I although I’m not high on him, I took Michael Young because everyone else just kept passing… obviously he’s not as valuable as Zimmerman, especially considering possible upside. BUT, with Zimmerman projected at 95-28-95-3-.290, one has to like the price of Young’s 85-16-80-8-.300 projected line.
I also grabbed Chris Davis, just in case he doesn’t fail again :)