Eduardo Nunez: Steals Sleeper
Exactly fifty players stole at least 20 bases last season, but only six of them did it in fewer plate appearances that Eduardo Nunez. The Yankees’ reserve infielder swiped 22 bags (in 28 tries) in 2011 while only coming to the plate 338 times, and only four of those steals came as a pinch-runner. The six guys who stole at least 20 bases in fewer plate appearances fit into two basic categories…
Everyday Players in 2012
Dee Gordon (24 SB in 233 PA)
Jason Bourgeois (31 SB in 252 PA)
Desmond Jennings (20 SB in 287 PA)
Non-Everyday Players in 2012
Tony Campana (24 SB in 155 PA)
Eric Young Jr. (27 SB in 229 PA)
Jordan Schafer (22 SB in 337 PA)
Nunez fits somewhere in the middle. His 338 plate appearances last season were largely a function of filling in as an injury replacement for Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez for weeks at a time, though the Yankees liked his production enough — .298/.344/.421 in 125 PA while playing everyday in place of those two — that they found him regular at-bats down the stretch (even sticking him in the outfield on occasion despite no experience there) and insist they will do the same next season. Nunez finished the year with a respectable .265/.313/.385 slash line (respectable in the middle infielder world, I mean), which works out to a .313 wOBA and a 92 wRC+.
A-Rod has spent considerable time in the DL in each of the last four seasons, and the Yankees do give him semi-regular at-bats at DH in an effort to help keep him on the field (apparently it’s not working). The 37-year-old Jeter has been more durable over the last few years than his partner on the left side of the infield, but he’s been spending more and more days at DH in recent years. Manager Joe Girardi calls them “half-days off.” Nunez is in line to take that playing time at third and (especially) short, meaning he could be in line for another 300+ trips to the plate in 2012. All that playing time is poised to equal stolen bases for your fantasy squad.
Now obviously backup infielders aren’t the most sought after commodity in fantasy. Nunez isn’t a guy you’d seek out on draft day or set aside a more than a buck or two for in ottoneu leagues, but he is someone to keep in mind as you monitor the Yankees infield situation. He’s a fine bench piece in AL-only leagues if you watch daily lineups closely, and he could represent a slight upgrade over your current middle infield situation if he’s playing regularly due to injury. It’s not a question of if Nunez will run given his base-stealing track record, just a question of when and if he’ll be in your lineup when he does it.
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Huh. MLBDepthCharts lists Jordan Schafer as the starter in Houston over Jason Bourgeois.
Steals per plate appearance?
How about steals per times on base? I don’t think Nunez had a very high OBP, which would make his steal potential even greater I would think.
Bourgeois isn’t a starter. He’d need an injury to take over as a starter and the Stros didn’t like what they saw from him in everyday ABs after they shipped Bourn away.
Nuñez reached base 104 times last season. If you take out the 4 pinch running steals, this equates to 18 steals in 104 times base was reached. This is a 17.31% steals/times on base.
If you trust Bill James’ projections, you can guess Nuñez will reach base 130 times. This would give him 22.5 steals, so call it 23. Then assume he’ll be able to swipe 4 as a pinch runner again, and you’re talking close to 30 steals.
Good analysis Mike. I think his ability to steal could be his ticket to succeeding Jeter in a few years, assuming he’s able to fix his defense. Seems to have the tools to do so, plenty of range and he usually fields the ball reasonably well, it’s just the freaking cannon arm goes wild.