Examining Barry Zito and Bengie Molina
In two-plus years with the Giants, Barry Zito has been a major disappointment. Forget his massive salary, Zito has a 29-41 record with a 4.72 ERA. The primary catcher for Zito in San Francisco throughout his tenure in the National League is Bengie Molina. It has been suggested more than once that Molina is part of the problem with Zito’s performance, yet he has been behind the plate for 15 of Zito’s 24 starts this season, including eight of his last 10 outings.
Giants manager Bruce Bochy is a former catcher and he should be uniquely qualified to assess how important the individual pitcher-catcher relationship is, one that takes on even greater importance for the club this season as it battles for a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. That Bochy continues to write Molina’s name in at catcher with Zito on the hill tells us his opinion of the matter.
There is no easy way to determine if Molina is hurting Zito because there are so many factors to consider. One of the hardest things to combat is the sample-size problem, especially with the Giants’ preference to have Molina behind the plate as often as possible.
The biggest sample we have is the games pitched by Zito throughout his major league career. There are six catchers who have caught him at least 15 times. Here are the rate stats for those who have caught Zito the most in the majors:
| Games | AVG | OBP | SLG | SO/BB | AB/HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Hernandez | 93 | .210 | .288 | .316 | 2.17 | 51.68 |
| Bengie Molina | 65 | .261 | .347 | .421 | 1.45 | 32.41 |
| Jason Kendall | 64 | .234 | .321 | .381 | 1.72 | 32.06 |
| Damian Miller | 25 | .284 | .351 | .464 | 1.88 | 25.21 |
| Adam Melhuse | 18 | .249 | .318 | .385 | 2.03 | 36.09 |
| Greg Myers | 17 | .252 | .326 | .397 | 2.36 | 28.69 |
Among the catchers who have caught Zito the most, Molina does not fare very well in any of our categories. But this could easily be because Molina is catching Zito when he is no longer an elite, or even above-average pitcher. To get a better idea we are going to have to compare Molina to the other catchers on the Giants.
So far in his career for San Francisco, Zito has pitched 90 games. Molina has been behind the plate in 65 of those games, or 72 percent. Here is how Zito has fared with Molina behind the plate compared to all of the other catchers Bochy and the Giants have used since 2007:
Molina: 20 W, 33 L, .261/.347/.421 1.45 SO/BB, 32.41 AB/HR
Others: 9 W, 8 L, .242/.315/.366 1.66 SO/BB, 45.75 AB/HR
Here are the breakdowns for the other Giants catchers besides Molina when Zito is on the mound:
| Games | AVG | OBP | SLG | SO/BB | AB/HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Sandoval | 8 | .233 | .311 | .321 | 1.75 | 96.5 |
| Guillermo Rodriguez | 6 | .224 | .283 | .328 | 2.20 | 58.00 |
| Steve Holm | 6 | .300 | .361 | .469 | 1.21 | 32.50 |
| Eli Whiteside | 4 | .211 | .280 | .378 | 2.44 | 22.50 |
| Eliezer Alfonzo | 1 | .200 | .385 | .300 | 0.33 | inf |
In extremely small samples, Zito has appeared much more like the pitcher he was in Oakland with Sandoval or Rodriguez behind the plate. Unfortunately for the Giants, Rodriguez is now in the Baltimore organization.
Bochy and the Giants have apparently made the decision that Sandoval will not be catching anymore. It would be thinking way outside the box for the Giants to take their starting third baseman and make him Zito’s permanent personal catcher but at this point, that may be their best option to get the most value out of Zito going forward.
It is hard to blame the Giants for wanting no longer to expose Sandoval to the rigors of catching. But it is time to pull the plug on Molina being the primary catcher for Zito because the results are simply no good. Zito has a .377 winning percentage in 53 decisions with Molina behind the plate. This is one time where we have enough data to draw a firm conclusion.
Throughout it all, Zito has taken the high road. He has expressed a willingness to continue with Molina as his primary catcher, despite the less than stellar results when the two work together.
But this is a case when the manager has to step in for the good of the team. With the playoffs in the balance and Zito on the mound, Bochy simply cannot put Molina behind the plate if he wants to give his team its best shot to win. Molina should be working out at first base so that Bochy has the option to keep his bat in the lineup when Zito pitches.
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Is this for reals?
Oh brother. Me thinks you think too much.
How can you take this article as far as you do without mentioning Catcher’s ERA?
The purpose of this site is to show true performance. Breaking down the controllable components is what’s necessary.
Generally, Catcher’s ERA is frowned upon, although it could have been useful in this case. I did not use it because the sites I was using for stats did not have it in a form that I could easily extract over multiple seasons. I did not have the time to go through each individual game and do it by hand.
I don’t know that the analysis has nearly enough sample size to draw the conclusions you do. When you mention catchers from his A’s days, you’re not addressing the problem – we KNEW he was better in Oakland already, and you’re just making an assumption that it must be the catcher. You’re just using circular logic – he was good in oakland because of his catcher, and he was better with other catchers because he was good in Oakland. I’m sorry, but that kind of data has to be thrown out completely. It’s far too out of date to assume that anything when any number of factors could be his problem these days.
Now you’re trying to say Molina is worse than his other recent options, where the difference in K/BB is only .16. Yeah, it looks like he’s getting hit a little harder, but are you really willing to attribute a difference in .55 SLG against in 25 starts? We see that kind of fluctuation just from season to season alone with pitchers.
I’m calling complete shenanigans on this analysis. Switching catchers is something the Giants should maybe look into, but the evidence suggests it’s mostly a shot in the dark.
Geez, and the whole time I thought his failures was because he throws a 83 MPH fastball.
Anyways, there’s surely not enough evidence to support this theory. Even if this WAS the case what would his ERA in San Fran be with another catcher…4.50? Still not good enough to live up to his contract.
Zito’s breakdowns for 2009
Pablo Sandoval – 19.1 IP, 4 ER
Steve Holm – 13.1 IP, 4 ER
Eli Whiteside – 25.2 IP, 11 ER
Total: 58.1 IP, 19 ER = 2.93 ERA
Bengie Molina – 83.2 IP, 51 ER = 5.48 ERA
VS what level of competition, in what park, what is Zitos BABIP in those starts? etc. The sample sizes are so small era is a bad measurement. Even if you look at the authors numbers are we really saying Molina’s catching causes Zito to give up HRs at a greater rate?
Is there a small effect? Probably. Is it as meaningful as it is being portrayed? Highly unlikely.
Molina is way to important to this Giants team for them to be considered a true contender.
The problem isn’t Bengie Molina catching Barry Zito. The problem is having Bengie Molina in the lineup any day. He’s arguably the worst player in baseball this year, and the Giants would be better off starting Whiteside every day; that’s how terrible Bengie has been offensively and defensively.
I’ve noticed that all this season. Zito is pitching better this year than the last couple of years. But he’s pitched better with Sandovol or Whiteside behind the plate. In fact, Whiteside caught Jonathan Sanchez’s no-hitter, which was certainly not something one would expect from a journeyman pitcher such as Sanchez. Unfortunately, Whiteside hasn’t hit too well. Bengie has been streaky at the plate, and it’s obvious he’s seen better days. I think Bochy believes that he has to keep Molina in there for offense, and since Barry’s big problem this year is he literally has the lowest run support of any starter in the majors, he needs Molina’s bat and power potential in there. He tends to use Whiteside only on day games after night games, no matter who’s pitching. Sandoval is also a bat they can’t afford to go without and he’ll hold up better at third. After Pablo had a weeks-long arm injury earlier this season, he was retired from catching permanently, it seems. Bochy has to balance defense with offense. And really, Barry has pitched well after the All Star break, mostly with Molina catching.
Journeyman? Sanchez is 26 and was drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 27th round of the 2004 amateur draft.
It’d be interesting to see the same rate-stats-by-catcher breakdown for Lincecum and Cain as well. I’d think that if Molina sucks at calling games for Zito, he’d suck across the board.
My thoughts exactly. Up until this year, Zito’s time with the Giants consisted of flat curve balls and way too many walks. I think Zito’s failure is more attributable to Zito’s failings than Molina’s.
That being said, there is simply too small of a small size to say one way or the other. One reason Zito’s ERA is 5 something with Molina is because of the final game before the All-Star break where Zito gave up 7 or 8 in 4 innings.
Why would the Giants possibly want that bat in the lineup at 1st base? A .278 OBP barely plays at catcher. Im sure he gives more than a few runs back on the basepaths also. Get him out of the lineup.
Bengie isn’t ‘Moneyball’ by any stretch of the definition. He’s there because he’s an above average hitter at a position where offense is extremely hard to come by, not because he’s got a high OBP.
He’s not even above average anymore.
My God, this is hilarious even if it’s just a sample-size aberration.
How funny would it be to look back 5 years from now and realize that you just wasted 150 million dollars because of something so damn trivial.
Brian is looking at a secondary data point with a limited sample size.
Barry Zito has improved this year because. 1) He worked out over the summer with his previous throwing coach and increased his FB velocity. (and probably the movement on his other pitches 2) He is throwing more sliders – almost 2x as many as last year, and less change ups. 3) He probably settled in more mentally with less pressure on him due to Cain and Linsicomb.
Who is this “Linsicomb” of which you speak?
The key stat to study with Zito is BABIP vs RHB. He is absolutely unique in his ability (after 10 years, it’s clear this is a skill, not a random fluke) to defy DIPS and keep this stat much lower than nearly any other non-knuckleball pitcher. (His BABIP vs LHB is more-or-less normal.) Any FIP/DIPS-based analysis on Zito is therefore flawed, because it assumes away his primary skill.
Zito’s year by year BABIP v RHB:
2000: .229
2001: .287
2002: .233
2003: .241
2004: .258
2005: .245
2006: .281
2007: .258
2008: .313 (!!)
2009: .289
Any question in the mode of “Why is Zito pitching well/badly” should begin by studying this stat. Does it look like Zito in this context, or like a normal pitcher?
So if there’s anything of substance to this Zito-Molina theory, it will show up in the BABIP-vs.-RHB-by-catcher stats. I don’t have the access to those split stats, but that’s where I’d start.
I came across another article on another site that I actually read before this one that is nearly identical.
http://dodgerhater.blogspot.com/2009/08/zito-reality-anyone-but-bengie.html