Fan Projections Battle: Duda vs. Smoak
First base is the most productive position in fantasy, whether you prefer traditional 5×5 scoring or the linear weights points scoring in ottoneu leagues. Late round first basemen like the two fellas we’re going to talk about today figure to be as productive as many top middle infielders in the power and run production departments, though they’ll probably lag in batting average and almost certainly will in stolen bases. Value is value though.
Lucas Duda of the Mets and Justin Smoak of the Mariners come from very, very different backgrounds. Duda was an unheralded seventh round pick who never appeared on any kind of top prospect list and had to prove himself each step of the way in the minors. Smoak was the eleventh overall pick in the draft and twice considered one of the 25 best prospects in the game by Baseball America before being the headliner in a trade package for an elite, ace-level pitcher. Despite those differences, they’re expected to produce almost the exact same fantasy value next year according to our Fan Projections…
| PA | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | Ottoneu Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Duda | 500 | .280 | 21 | 85 | 81 | 1 | 839.4 |
| Justin Smoak | 590 | .263 | 22 | 90 | 86 | 1 | 842.3 |
The two players also have similar minor league track records: .283 AVG (.325 BABIP) with a .175 ISO and a 17.1 K% for the 25-year-old Smoak compared to a .286 AVG (.340 BABIP) with a .187 ISO and a 19.3 K% for the 26-year-old Duda. They did have very different seasons in 2011, however.
The Mets called Duda up at midseason, then watched him finish strong (292/.370/.482 with ten homers in 347 PA) and force his way into the middle of their lineup. Smoak started well (.264/.366/.488 with a dozen homers in his first 284 PA) for Seattle, but he struggled down the stretch in part due to injuries. Duda wins the 2011 production race no questions asked, but there’s no guarantee he’ll do it again in 2012.
For one, Smoak is healthy. He missed time last year with a thumb issue and then had his nose broken when a ground ball took a weird hop. His father also passed away in April. As a switch-hitter, Smoak is never at the platoon disadvantage, though Safeco Field will smother his production from the right side. The lineup around him is improving but is still below average, which will suppress those all-important runs scored and driven in totals.
Duda is a left-handed bat with a platoon split, and that can be problematic in a division that features Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, Mark Buehrle, Ross Detwiler, John Lannan (for the time being) and others. CitiField was unkind to all batters but particularly lefties during its first three years of its existence, however the walls came in some this winter and it remains to be seen how the place will play going forward. The Mets had an average offense last season and then lost Jose Reyes over the winter, but Duda’s supporting cast figures to be better than Smoak’s.
If you’re looking at these two players in terms of pure upside, Smoak is the easy choice. I can’t imagine there are many people that expect Duda to repeat his 2011 showing over a full season and I suppose there’s a chance he’s already maxed out, but I don’t think that’s the case. The two players are expected to produce at similar rates next season based on the data we collect here, and frankly I think it’s a coin flip as well.
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Not that I put much stock into the counting stat projections, but 1 extra HR and 5 extra R/RBI aren’t worth 17 points in AVG… it’ll likely be a bigger gap between their AVG too, Duda is the far superior fantasy play in 2012
I noticed that difference, too. Could the reason be that Duda’s BA is only weighted by the AB’s that will come with 500 PA’s compared to Smoak’s 590? That’s the only thing I could think of.
Duda is not going to be good. He’ll be horrible, and you should not draft him.
very convincing
Duda wins on OF eligibility since they have pretty similar projected stat lines. He’s a great Util/CI/OF platoon bat for many formats that will cost little to acquire/keep etc.
Right. In typical 12 team formats, Duda/Smoak are best as bench guys. Duda is more valuable in that role because you can mix and match him into a variety of spots. Smoak is less utile.
If it was for a bench role I would take Smoak over Duda in a daily league because if my 7:05/8:05 game time starter is scratched, I have a guy usually playing the late game who I can plug in.
The fans projection for Smoak looks pretty optimistic. Where are the power numbers in his history? I think he’s getting a boost because his name has a ring to it and he’s got a nice looking swing. I would much rather platoon Duda (and his .380 wOBA v. Righties) in my OF than start Smoak at 1B or UTIL.
Duda wins for me. They both have hard parks to play in, but Duda’s got a bit better this winter (RF moved in 10/11 feet) and has dual eligibility. Psychologically, Smoak struggles with being ‘the man’ in an offense with very little support. He literally collapsed last year. Duda does not have that type of pressure. Upside still with Smoak, but I’m taking Duda this year.
With Montero and Ackley now on the scene, I think the pressure for him in your “the man” argument is less of an issue
Ackley probably hits in the 2 spot with 10HR/15SB and a high OBP; 10HR doesn’t not relieve pressure to be the offense. Meanwhile, though I am hopeful, Jesus has proven nothing. But we are assuming both of those rookies will perform up to some level they have not shown yet in the majors. The pressure is still there until those two prove they can produce over 150+ games.
Duda tore up AAA in 2010: 314 /.389/ .610, 17, 53 in 298 ABs
Duda tore up AAA in 2011 .302/ .414/ .597, 10, 24 in 129 ABs
Duda tore up MLB in the 2nd half last year .322/.411/.546 10, 38 in 205 ABs
Even with all the pre-season sleeper hype on Duda I still think he may be under rated. Not expecting 950+ OPS over a whole season but I think he can mash, fielding well at least thats not a fantasy concern.
Loving those numbers. I think you just sold me on Duda
How much will Duda’s poor fielding affect his playing time? He will certainly be taken out late in games when the Mets are leading. And when you combine his bad defense with his mediocre splits against lefties, the Mets might conclude that it is advantageous to sit him against lefties.
“He will certainly be taken out late in games when the Mets are leading.”
Well I guess that’s not something we’ll have to worry about too often.
I would maybe give Smoak an edge for being in a (admittedly only potentially) stronger lineup this year. More R/RBI oppprtunities if the Mariners click. We can be pretty sure the Mets won’t.
I’m from Philly, so I’m no Mets fan… but the Mets scored 718 runs last season, while the Mariners scored 556 (with a DH). Yeah, the Mets lost Reyes. They also went without Ike Davis for most of the season, and had a sub-par year from Wright.
Mets offense is above average, and potentially quite good… and they are moving the fences in.
Mets problem is pitching.
until the traded away beltran, mets had one of the top three offenses in the league. Granted, beltran’s not coming back and reyes is gone, but Ike Davis will be back and Wright should hit at least a little better.
Yeah, but your Bill James’s Projection shows the platooning Duda getting only 370 plate appearances while Smoak gets 616. Edge goes to Smoak, doncha think?
You’re gonna base judgment on James’s projection of plate appearances?
1st off, I don’t put much weight in “projections”, especially when looking at young players who haven’t played a full season yet.
If you look at the Mets depth, the 2nd biggest issue next to the rotation, they don’t have a strong option to platoon with Duda. Their bench is weak and the best OF option in the minors is also LF, so he’ll have the same split concerns and he doesn’t come close to Duda’s power production level.
Unless something crazy happens that forces Duda and Bay to Platoon, Duda is going to be playing everyday. If the “crazy thing” happens, it won’t happen until a couple of months into the season. Both Bay and Duda will get every importunity to prove that they can (or still) produce.
I wouldn’t worry about subbing Duda out late in games either, TC rarely subbed out his starters late in games last year, I don’t see that changing.