FG+ Over/Under Game: New Closers
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our fourth over/under game, let’s take a look at closers in general. Every year, a gaggle of new closers are minted.
The over/under for today’s game is nine. As in, will there be more or less than nine new closers next year? For our purposes, let’s define a new closer as one who will accrue over 20 saves more than he did in 2011.
If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult Jack Moore’s excellent piece that attempts to use shutdowns and meltdowns to predict closer changes. You would even see a little more about the following figure:
But since you don’t have any more background than a simple tally of the last three years — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to predict the number of closer changes coming in 2012. Use any methods at your disposal.
Have at it!
11
1) Start with the closer chart at THT (maybe there’s one here on FG also, but I found THT quicker.)
2) Go team by team and assign a probability of there being a new closer. Don’t try to account for injuries or unforeseen meltdowns, just figure on 2 of those overall. (Last year I counted 3: PHI, CHW and HOU, although you could argue any of those was foreseeable.)
3) Since even Melancon got 20 saves last year, any team that has no 2011 closer on their roster gets a 1.0 probability. (OAK, CHW, COL, HOU)
4) Some teams have an incumbent with shaky performance and a strong backup candidate (CLE, KC, LAD). They get probablities in the 0.3-0.5 range.
5) Some teams have an incumbent closer who took over late last season, and has a shot at boosting their total saves by 20+ (BAL, TX, MIN, STL, NYM). They get probabilities ranging 0.1 (MIN) to 0.8 (BAL).
6) Everyone else get zero probability. Yes there’s always a chance, but that’s covered by the 2 for unforeseeable events.
Add all these up and I come up with 9.6. So I think your spot on with the over/under, but I’ll take the over.
It seems more likely than not that the Oakland and Houston situations will result in a couple of guys getting 20 more saves than they did in 2011. In Oakland, none of the closer candidates but Brian Fuentes (whose less-than-stellar stuff and secondary numbers make him fairly unlikely to win a closing job with a sabermetrically savvy organization like Oakland) had more than 2 saves last year. All of the front-runners (Devine, de los Santos, Balfour) are all projected for a FIP of 3 or less by Bill James, and barring a few badly timed injuries or periods of ineffectiveness I don’t have much trouble seeing one of those guys get 21-22 saves in 2012. The A’s’ spacious ballpark should also help generate save chances–by keeping offense down, it will keep the scores of games fairly close. I’ll say they have an 85% chance of having a +20 save guy.
There’s a similar situation in Houston. No one on the roster had more than 4 saves last year, but there are enough reasonably talented relievers there (Wilton Lopez, Juan Abreu, David Carpenter) who have shown an ability to rack up strikeouts with a reasonable amount of walks that someone should be able to hold down a closing job for most of the year. I don’t see a smart guy Jeff Luhnow giving Brandon Lyon the reins there. One thing to keep in mind here is that Houston will in all likelihood be terrible in 2012, and there is some chance that they won’t generate enough save chances for one of these guys to get 20 saves. I’ll conservatively say they have a 75% chance of producing a +20 save guy.
OK those paragraphs took a while, bullet points from now on.
White Sox: someone will almost certainly get 20 more saves than in 11; Thornton and Reed are top candidates to close, both likely to be very good in 2011, both had 3 saves or less in 2011. With halfway decent pitching and an offense that should bounce back somewhat from last year, I don’t think they’ll be as bad as Houston or Oakland either. 92% chance of +20 guy.
Red Sox: Unlikely for various reasons. Bailey had 24 saves last year, and I have trouble projecting anyone, particularly someone with his injury history, for 44; likely top second-in-command Melancon had 20 last year, seems very unlikely that he’d get to 40 unless Bailey gets a significant injury very early on. I’ll say 8% chance these guys are 20+ or someone else (Matt Albers?) emerges and racks up 20 saves.
Yankees: Barring Rivera injury, very unlikely they produce 20+ guy though Robertson is great, Soriano has good track record. Rivera is getting old, but his consistency is incredible. 10% chance.
Rays: Farnsworth was great last year but I seriously doubt he gets 45 saves. He’s been somewhat inconsistent and injury-prone and the Rays have plenty of other guys who could hack it at closer (Peralta, McGee, etc.) so the odds of them producing a 20+ guy aren’t negligible. I’ll say 24%.
Blue Jays: Very unlikely that Santos will reach 50 saves; likely second-in-command Francisco Cordero would have to rack up 57 to qualify as 20+. I’ll say there’s a 4% chance Santos gets to 50 or (much more likely) another guy like Casey Janssen gets to 20.
Orioles: They’re going to suck and the closer situation is somewhat murky. I could see Jim Johnson getting 29, or Lindstrom getting 22 though. 60% chance.
Indians: Chance Pestano is effective again and steals Perez’s job with enough time left to get 22 saves, plus the chance someone else does this, basically. 29%.
Twins: Chance Perkins is effective again and steals Capps’s job with enough time left to get 22 saves, plus the chance that Capps somehow gets 35 saves, plus the chance that someone else steals Capps’ job and gets a 20+ improvement. 32%.
Royals: Chance Soria gets 48 saves or is traded/hurt and Broxton, Holland or someone else records 20 saves. A trade and a dream season for Soria could happen, which would result in 2 20+ guys. I’ll say all these scenarios amount to 15% of a 20+ guy–seems very likely that Soria turns in another 30-40 save season, with none of the other guys in the bullpen racking up more than 5-10.
I have to be somewhere in ten minutes so these will be quick and dirty.
Tigers: Barring an injury Valverde holds job most of the year and Leyland will be loath to give it to someone else; he will not get 20 more saves than he did last year. If he gets hurt early enough they have some good RPs like Al Alburquerque who could get 20+. 7%.
Rangers: Some chance Nathan gets to 35 or gets hurt and someone like Adams or Uehara or Ogando fills in. Most likely that Nathan just gets 31 or something and the rest of the chances are split too evenly among the other guys for anyone to get 20+. 22%.
Mariners: Seems most likely that League will turn in a season similar to last year. Still, was never excellent until last year, always some chance of injury, ineffectiveness or trade. 14%.
Angels: Walden seems pretty established, got a decent amount of saves last year. Same stuff applies to him as to any good closer with short track record. 10%.
Braves: Same kind of situation as with Angels, with better incumbent, but better supporting cast. 11%.
Mets: Significant chance that Francisco gets enough saves to prevent anyone else from getting close to 20+ but falls short of his 2011 total + 20 (17+20=37). I’ll say 26%.
Phillies: Situation similar to that of Yankees. 6%.
Marlins: Somewhat similar to Mariners. I feel a little queasy about Bell but I think he should at the very least keep his job long enough to prevent someone else from recording a 20+ leap. 14%.
Nationals: See Braves and Angels, basically. 10%.
Reds: Somewhat similar situation to Braves/Angels/Nats, though Madson may be a bit less risky. 8%.
Pirates: Very similar to Reds, though some chance Hanrahan will be traded with enough time left for someone else to get a 20+ improvement. 10%.
Cardinals: Solid chance Motte gets 29 or more saves–2.48 FIP in 68 IP last year–which would put him in the 20+ bracket. If he gets hurt or loses his job early on all of the fallback options but Salas (Boggs, Lynn, Sanchez) had very few saves last year. 58%.
Brewers: It will be hard for Axford or second-in-command K-Rod to get a 20+ improvement barring an Axford injury in spring training or something. 4%.
Cubs: A Marmol trade seems likely, but it may well happen too late for anyone else to step up and register a 20+ save improvement. If he gets hurt or loses his job due to wildness I could see it though. 10%.
Padres: Street probably won’t get 49 saves, but he is a prime candidate to be dealt, and he had some injury issues last year. The question is whether it will be early enough for someone like Luke Gregerson or Andrew Cashner to step into the closing gig early enough to get a 20 save bump from 2012. I don’t think it will happen. 9%.
D-Backs: Seems most likely that Putz will have another solid season. They have good fallback options if he gets hurt or something though. 9%.
Giants: The chance that Wilson will get hurt or lose his job due to ineffectiveness early on and someone else will have success in his role, basically. Romo would be an awesome closer if Wilson went down. 14%.
Rockies: Seems fairly likely that Betancourt will get to 28. If he falters Brothers looked very good last year. Betancourt could also have a decent season but get hurt or something and fall short, and not leave enough save chances out there for someone else to register a 20+ improvement. I’ll say 55%.
Dodgers: The most likely way that this team doesn’t yield a 20+ closer is if Guerra wins the job and has a pretty good season (30-40 saves, but less than 41). I guess Jansen could win the closing job and then get hurt without leaving enough time for someone else to rack up a 20+ improvement. Seems like there’s an 80% chance something else will happen though.
OK, the percentages are pretty unscientific, but if by adding them up I’ll have a pretty good idea of how many 20+ guys I really think will emerge this season. 8.11! So, I conclude that less than 9 20+ saves over previous season closers will emerge this year.
Not sure if I can compete with the comment above (1500 words!) but I’ll try.
I think that there will be less than 9 new closers this year. Here’s why:
Out of the top 30 closers in saves last year, the 21st best closer according to FIP is Neftali Feliz with a 3.57. With the exception of David Hernandez and K-Rod, most of the closers above Feliz are in at least a somewhat stable position (Not sure what’s happening with “Leo Nunez” or whatever his name is). I also think that it is safe to say that at least 3 of the bottom 9 will not give up their job to a new closer. That means that I believe that there have to be either season ending injuries or massive meltdowns to about 5 players for us to reach that 9 new closer limit in 2012. Let’s look at some of the possibilities for new closers.
Cardinals: Every year it’s crazy… Either Salas keeps his job or no one reaches 20.
Mets: I’m going out on a limb and saying that they will win more than 20 games. Despite that, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps aren’t exactly studs in the bullpen and will likely go back and forth. Both of them have to save around 35 games to be considered new and I don’t see that happening.
Orioles: Jim Johnson looks pretty strong. I think I could see him breaking the “new” barrier.
White Sox: Matt Thornton seems more suited to a setup role. The Sox rolled with Santos last year, so I could see them taking to Addison Reed in 2012.
Rockies: Rafael Betancourt just looks too good. I think he’ll break 20 saves easy.
A’s: I think Fuentes’s presense is enough to keep Grant Balfour from reaching 20.
Padres: Could go either way… Street is good, but they have a lot of prospects and they’re in rebuilding (like every other year) so they should be willing to try out some new guys.
Astros: Brandon Lyon has had injury trouble in the past. Wilton Lopez also looks good enough to steal the closer spot from him even if he’s healthy.
I think that 2012 may resemble 2010 in that there will be about 5-7 new closers. After the influx of young talent last year, more spots are filled with solid guys than usual. However, over the course of 162 games, anything can happen. We’ll just have to wait and see.
OVER.
Explanation below:
This one’s really simple (because I am making it so). 10 Probablies, say 90% chance for each:
White Sox
Red Sox
Rays
Dodgers
Rockies
Padres
Cardinals
Mets
Astros
A’s
And 4 maybes, say 50% chance for each:
Rangers
Indians
Twins
Orioles
10*0.9 + 4*0.5 = 11. Over!
Done. Very little thinking required.
I’ll make this simple as well. Not considering an injury replacement I figure the following players topping twenty more saves than last year.
K. Jansen -LAD
J. Motte – StL
A. Reed – CWS
M. Capps – Min (out on a limb and gets 35)
F. Francisco – NYM
R. Brothers or R. Betancourt – COL
J. Johnson – Bal
J. Nathan – Tex
W. Lopez – HOU
That puts me at 9. I’ll take the over since there is always an injury replacement or two. Plus a chance Pestano overtakes Perez in Cleveland.
Only math I did was add 20 to last year. So give me the Over.
I will take the under on this. I fully expected to take the over but after looking closely at some of the jobs I really couldn’t find 9 teams without established closers or at least closers who had so few saves last year that they would be able to get 20 more than last year.
There are very few relievers that you would project as having over 20 saves, let alone 20 more than last year. There are also several teams like the Red Sox that even if their closer gets injured, the backups accumulated too many saves that you can project 20 more than 2011.
Even some “new” full-time closers like Jason Motte had nearly double-digit saves last year. Brief blurb for likely scenarios:
LAD:May split closing duties
CWS: Could switch between Thornton and Reed
CLE: Seems somewhat likely as long as Perez bombs early
TEX: Hard to project Nathan for that many saves
OAK: As long as not Fuentes, will likely get done
STL: Hard to project Motte for 29 saves
CHC: Cubs will need Marmol to build value so they can trade him
NYM: Possible but even Franky Frank had 17 saves last year. He can’t be the closer for this to work.
COL: Could be done with some (not a lot) of luck
MIN: Capps resurgence or an unknown are both possible
HOU: Someone has to close for them. Should work.
No Unless injury:
Atl, Bos, NYY, Tor, Det, KC, Sea, LAA, PHI, Was, Mia, Mil, Cin, SD, SF
A lot of the other ones require ineffectiveness relatively early. There are very few teams that have backups with so few saves that it will be achieved this year. The general turmoil from last year spread the saves around so much that taking the under is the smart play.
While not looking up the numbers specifically, I would guess the number of “new ” closers probably oscillates frequently alternating between above and below the mean. I could be wrong but the under seems like a good play.
Really like Eiffell Tower, Mark, and Max. Eiffell Tower for being so thorough, Mark for a good approach and result, and Max for brevity.
Eiffell Tower, come on down! You get a free sub. Thanks to the rest of the guys!
Hey Eno, thanks! How do I claim this, exactly? Do you need an e-mail address?
I was also wondering about how FG+ was activated. Does it take a few days to activate?