FG+ Over/Under Game: Trout & Harper
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our third over/under game, let’s take a look at Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.
The over/under for today’s game is an either/or: Trout or Harper. As in, which player would you want if you were starting a new keeper league today and had the first pick? First, kudos for rigging the game in your favor. Second, I hope it’s an ottoneu league. Third — which one are you taking?
One’s got wheels of steal and surprising pop. The other has light-tower power and the eye blacks of a champion. One is in a crowded outfield but has the ability to contribute in every category. The other has no roadblocks but may be more of your traditional slugger. If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult David Golebiewski’s excellent piece polling the major prospecters about their preference between the two players, or read Jason Catania on Keeper League Strategies. Zach Sanders’ piece on Valuing Upside Graphically might also come into play.
But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to suss out the difference between these two super studs. If your answer changes depending on league settings, feel free to include that in your answer.
Have at it!
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I actually have both in a keeper league – points based, favoring power hitters. Although Harper has a year less of statistics, he has consistently shown adjustments to the leagues he has been in and improved over time. Of the more simple statistics, I find it interesting that his BABIP comes out to about .346 in A and AA ball, while Trout had a .392 weighted average for BABIP among the same levels. Understanding that Trout has more speed can explain some of this, but I feel that at the major league level Trout will see more of a drop off in this area, thus bringing a few of his other categories down as well. The small sample size from last year yields .247 in this category (only 135 PAs).
Without delving further into numbers, the fact that Harper has continued to perform and is still a full year younger with much better power hitting prowess, I would go with Harper in most formats. I think we will see even greater improvements in his BB/K ratio that will translate to the majors. In any case, I would be pleased if both of them outperformed any projections to help bolster my OF for years to come.
Without a doubt it would be Harper. A player like Trout is special and has great talent but Harper is one of those once-in-a-generation, transcendent type of players. There is more likelihood that Harper will become the next Junior than Trout becoming a reincarnation of Ricky Henderson. With his speed I have no doubt that the Nats could put him in CF if they wanted to.
fwiw, the Nats have tried Harper in CF and seem to have concluded that it’s a no go. That’s probably more because his time table to the major leagues would be pushed back while he learned the position.
Unfortubately, for me, it all comes down to timing. For this reason I have to go with Trout. While there is no doubting Harper’s ability, there is also no guarantee he will be in the MLB this year, with estimates ranging from opening day 2012 all the way to June 1, 2013. In addition to this, the closest talent/hype comparison that can be made is Ken Griffey Jr, and while he went on to have a HOF career, he didn’t exactly set the world on fire his rookie season. That means that in most leagues where you get a keeper for 3 years, there is a possibility that only in your last season with Harper does he perform at the level you’d want him to. This potential is heightened by the fact that he ultimately projects as a corner outfielder and the Nats are set, with Morse having a great season last year and Werth earning a check that doesn’t say “benchwarmer” in the subject line. Trout has the potential to give you immense production all 3 seasons.
This would, of course, change in a league where a player could be kept for more than 3 years if, come draft day it looked like Harper will be playing in SE DC on April 1, 2012. There is virtually no doubt in my mind that through his career he will be a better player, both for his team and for (hopefully) my fantasy team.
The first guy said Harper has “continued to perform.” This is not true. Now while there is definitely something to be said for how impressive his numbers are for his age, they are not impressive to the point where we would say he’s ready for the majors. Klaw and others have mentioned several times he really needs to work on his offspeed recognition and that just tells me he’s probably gonna go back to AA and spend a good part of the season working on it. Sure he could be up sooner, but probably won’t do very well. Trout on the other hand has shown what it means to “continue to perform.” Every level he dominated. For comparison they both started their 18 year old season in A, Bryce in the SALL and Trout in MWL. Both dominated. Harper made the jump up to AA, which was clearly a bit much. Trout on the other hand finished in A+ and continued to rake. Both going into 19 year old season in AA. Trout dominated. Harper, we will see, but doubtful he has the success Trout did. I think because Harper made the huge jump to AA we think he’s at Trout’s level and a year younger, but this is just an illusion. Harper is a full year of development behind Trout. What I’m saying is Harper always gets the praise for being the super young guy, he skipped out of highschool, etc. But how soon we forget how young Trout is. He was super young for a highschool player and has done NOTHING but dominate. If you wanna talk about Trout’s performance in the majors, talk about his low babip, which I confirmed with my own eyes watching many hard hit balls that were right at defenders. In conclusion, three reasons why I choose Trout. One, I would rather have the complete five category player on the team with Albert Pujols. Two, you get a full year more out of the player. And three, Trout has dominated where Harper has not, also contributing to reason number 2.
Obviously you didn’t look at the overall scope of Harper’s work at AA. He started off slow but was starting to tear the cover off the ball the last few weeks before he got hurt. How did the Arizona Fall League 2011 go???? Well Harper hit .333/.400/.634 in 93 at bats with a 11bb/22k ratio. Meanwhile Trout went .245/.279/.321 in 106 at bats with a 5bb/33k ratio…..all of this while Harper is 14 months younger than the more experienced Trout, on the same team against some of the best competition in minor league ball.
Harper is the main minor leaguer to target in almost all dynasty/keeper league formats.
Two weeks of success isn’t exactly what you want to see when you are considering bringing a player up to the majors. AFL stats mean very little, so I don’t think Harper is any kind of exception. Also for the case of Trout, many reports said he was tired from a long year. So you can compare AFL stats all day, but that means nothing to anyone anywhere. No one in their right mind would call the AFL “some of the best competition in minor league ball.” You would get laughed out of the room. If Harper is the main target in dynasty leagues, that’s cool. The question is SHOULD he be. Fantasy owners often get overly excited about a big power bat. He is 14 months younger than Trout, and LOOKS like it. He has not shown any reason to promote him further than AA. In the meantime Trout should be working his way right into a full time position.
wow so they play 38 games in 2 weeks in the AFL? oh and Will Myers charged up into top 10 lists because of his amazing statistics before going to the AFL? Or how about this little tidbit of knowledge for you
“The 2011 All-Star Game in Arizona featured 41 AFL alums, including both starting pitchers — Roy Halladay and Jered Weaver.”
You really need to get your facts straight before commenting. The AFL is where teams send there best prospects to see how they stack up. So Trout was tired, which is shocking as his game is based on speed. So how is he going to handle the rigors of a 162 game big league season? Harper had a severe ankle sprain that ended his minor league season and then came back and raked in a league where the best minor leaguers go to play.
You can have Trout I will take Harper, check back in 10 years.
No FG+ write up on Adam Wainwright?
I’m not going to flog a dead horse and talk about the tools that both players possess since everyone reading this knows these two players talents quite well. Instead, I am going to point out some more subtle aspects of the value of these players that lead to Trout being a more valuable player.
I play in a traditional 5X5 keeper league where I own Trout after trading him straight up for Harper. My reasons for making this trade are as follows:
While both players project at qualifying at OF, some leagues (mine included) separate outfielders into LF, CF, and RF. Having a 5 category star at CF is more appealing than having a RF
While Harper may have ++ power tools, having a 5 category contributor in a keeper league is more valuable. While I have no doubt there will be years that Harper out earns trout, Harper also comes at a cost of needed much more dedicated roster construction. By keeping Harper, you will sometimes have to alter your draft strategy to a need based approach rather than a value based approach which could lead to further problems.
Harper is special but so is Trout. Trout’s balanced approach will lead him to be the more valuable commodity.
I like to look at ideal lines. I would peg Harper’s ceiling at something like .290-110-35-110-15 and Trout’s at .320-120-25-100-35. If you don’t specify separate OF positions you’re basically looking at 2011 Ryan Braun vs. 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury, or basically a wash in terms of overall contributions. If that’s the case then the choice is the one that will come up sooner, and so the pick is Trout.
If you’re looking at ideal ceilings I think 35 HRs is quite low for Harper. 25 HR is probably right on for an ideal ceiling for Trout power. Steals-wise you’re probably a bit low on Trout’s ideal.
Hands down its Mike Trout!
In the time I’ve watched him play I’ve seen him literally change games with his blazing 80-rated speed (and if there was a 90 rating he would get it in my opinion). I watched him turn what should have been a routine ground out to the shortstop into an infield base hit. The look on the shortstop’s face was absolutely priceless as it went from astonishment at not recording the out to the understanding that he had done nothing wrong in fielding the ball cleanly and had just been beaten by a future Hall of Famer.
Mike Trout is a true 5-tool player and fantasy contributor. Harper brings tremendous power and plate presence, and is quite valuable, but just does not match up to Trout in my humble opinion. Trout will hit for high average, tremendous OBP, and will be able to develop above average power providing 20+ HR’s on a yearly basis. His speed is capable of producing 50+ SB’s. As he moves into the Majors he will optimally hit in the #2 or possibly the #3 hole and will become one of the league leaders in R’s with a reasonably strong amount of RBI’s.
Trout is a strong 5×5 category contributor (and more if you are in an OBP league). Harper will be a great contributor in 4 out of 5 categories. There is no comparison in the real world or in fantasy: Mike Trout WILL hook a job later this year and it will be a permanent one.
One scout’s comparison of Trout to Mickey Mantle won’t be far off the mark! Draft him with the highest confidence.
I lean Harper. The reason is the lack of power hitters in the fantasy game today. Get past round 2 for ADP’s this year and tell me how many guys we can project to hit 30+ home runs. The decreasing run environment has put a premium on power hitters in the fantasy game. If you’ve been in a long running, stable league, go check how many HR’s it took to finish in the top 3 in 2007 or 2008 compared to 2010 or 2011. I love Trout, obviously, but Harper is too much of a rare species right now to ignore
I’m taking Trout on this one.
Just looking at both of the names, I would have taken Harper, but one quick look at each of their Fangraphs pages reveals a major fact: Mike Trout has taken 1465 At-bats against minor league or major pitching. Bryce Harper has taken 596 At-bats… All against pitchers in AA or under. This shows that unless Harper is Ken Griffy Jr. v.2.0, hw will face a much more dramatic learning curve than Trout who spent time in the majors last season. I know that this is a keeper league, but because Trout has about a one year head start in playing time on Harper, he will hit the ground running (Literally with his 8.7 Spd score he had in AA last year).
Although Nationals Park has a much higher Park Factor for homeruns than Angel Stadium, the other 81 games played by Trout will be in generally power friendly stadiums. According to ESPN, the park factors for the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are 1,7, and 13 respectively. Harper will benefit from being on the Nats (9th in P.F.), however, only two other NL teams have P.F.’s in the top ten and neither are in the NL East.
Longterm, Harper will likely wear out faster. He has been playing high level baseball since he was 15 and has traveled to hundreds of showcases and tournaments. While I’m sure Trout has had a tough road, he won’t have had nearly the same burden as Harper. Over the course of a career, this will equate to more injuries and more time to rest between road trips.
Finally, Trout will get the benefit of being mentored by Albert Pujols and the other experienced players on the Angels while Harper will be playing on a very young, up and coming team
(Third tries a charm)
To clarify my thoughts, please take note of my assumptions and exclusions:
I am assuming that I will be able to keep either player forever (or as long as I want to), that no major injuries or disciplinary issues will reduce my selection’s playing time (i.e. they will have a minimum of 502 PA’s every year for their career in the Majors), their career lengths and time in the majors will be identical (Their respective call-up times do not matter), and I’m in a 5×5 Roto league. And I will exclude any consideration of the possible league, team, ball-park, batting order spot and/or teammates in my evaluation of the players because that is simply speculation. I think these assumptions and exclusions allow me to focus on the heart of the question, “Which player do I find more valuable?”, not which possible situation is best.
Mike Trout projects to be a “five-tool” player, with solid contributions across the board, especially due to his combination of HR’s and Steals. His speed in fantasy terms translates not only into steals, but has added benefits in Avg., Runs, and PA’s (Because it could help his defense and therefore playing time).
Bryce Harper projects to be a “traditional slugger” and as such his contribution will be characterized and evaluated based on the number of homeruns he hits. Considering the correlation between Homeruns and Runs and RBI (although not 100%: http://research.sabr.org/journals/harvest-seasons-most-runs-batted-in) (It’s difficult, but possible to hit 40 homeruns without 100 RBI), I would consider Harper’s Runs and RBI totals more maintainable and likely consistently higher than Trout due to his propensity to hit homeruns and be a “power” hitter.
So if you evaluate both players by each category:
Batting Avg. : Trout (speed and skill set)
HR: Harper (“slugger” skill set)
Runs: Slight edge to Harper (Connection between HR and Runs, despite Trout’s benefit from his speed)
RBI: Harper (Connection between HR’s and RBI)
Steals: Trout (Speed)
If you count my rudimentary evaluation, you’ll note that Harper will have a greater contribution in 3 of 5 traditional Fantasy baseball categories than Trout. Although, Trout will contribute in all 5 categories, I believe that Harper is more valuable because his significant contributions in those 3 categories make up for the lack of contributions in the other 2 categories.
Additionally, I feel that one can make up for Harper’s lack of steals with a late-round Avg./Steals (Dee Gordon-type) player; where as, to make up for the HR differential between Trout and Harper, theoretically an earlier draft pick would be necessary.
As such, I would select Bryce Harper as the first pick of this theoretical Fantasy Baseball Keeper Draft.
Personally, I lean Trout – but I love this approach. Peaches and nuts and sabermetric solutions had some good arguments too, but Heraldo gets the FG+ for Wednesday!
Given the choice between Trout or Harper, I will take Trout. First as has been stated he is ready to play in the MLB this year. While there is talk of Harper playing for the Nats on opening day, I just don’t see it happening. Starting Harper on opening day cuts a year of his better years from their control. Washington while they will be improved won’t seriously contend this year like they will once Harper and Rendon are in the MLB. Better to save all your bullets for your best chance. Next Trout has proved he can play in the bigs. Harper finished last season in AA. While I still think he will be a great big leaguer there have been many a player that just doesn’t make it that last step or struggles for a couple years before putting it all together. Another thing is who is now in the Angels lineup, Albert Pujols. Please don’t think that Lance Berkman really had that awesome year because of himself. Pitchers are always going to want to avoid Pujols and that leads to better pitches to hit for the others in the order. For these reasons I would prefer Trout in a regular OF league as opposed to one broken down LF, CF & RF. Throw in that he’s a CF and it’s just gravy. One last thing that scares me about Harper is the league. NL East has a ton of great pitchers; Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Hanson, Beachy, Josh Johnson, Ventors, Papelbon and Kimbrel. Sure it’s not as bad as if he was a Met and also had to face Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez and Storen but it’s definitely harder than facing some of the AL West pitchers.
Trout hit .220 in the bigs……this means he proved he can play at the highest level?
I want Bryce because his baseball card is selling higher…duh! But in all seriousness, you don’t pass on power potential, especially these days. Harper has an infinite amount of this and gives him a definitive edge over Trout.
First off why do so many of you think this about who you want for 2012? This is for a keeper league, who do you want in regards to their careers. Lets look at the AFL 2011. Harper hit .333/.400/.634 in 93 at bats with a 11bb/22k ratio. Meanwhile Trout went .245/.279/.321 in 106 at bats with a 5bb/33k ratio…..all of this while Harper is 14 months younger than the more experienced Trout in one of the best tests a minor leaguer can have.
Harper is once in a lifetime type talent, not just generational. I hear so many of you say he’s not a 5 category guy, well he also steals bases and could put up a .300 50hr/30sb season or even a few with his baseball instincts. Sign me up!