Comments on: FIP Challenge Results Part II

By: Jimbo

Jimbo — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:13:59 +0000

Look at the number of top pitchers in each list. Verlander is about the only early round draft pick in that bunch, while Volstad is about the only non-early round draft pick in that bunch.

The league I play in usually has a bit of “name-lag” where you can still get some guys at a value before they are proven studs. In my prep for next season, I might bump up a guy like Jurrjens if he’s really joining that teir of pitching.

By: Pat

Pat — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:18:59 +0000

Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather?

In april in the air is denser and the ball travels less, in the summer the air is less dense and it travels further… therefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters)

You can sell high on the pitchers you think will regress to the teams that are starved for pitching because you monopolized it early on in the year, and you can buy low on the hitting….. never heard anyone mention this strategy before and im seriously considering publishing this somewhere, but it seems in a points league only where stats accumulated in april count in sept, it would be a good idea to play the general upswing in offense later in the summer

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 00:26:55 +0000

Given a large enough sample, almost all MLB quality pitchers will revert to an 11 percent HR/FB rate. But a year isn’t a large enough sample for all pitchers. You mentioned Halladay – in ’07 and ’08 he had HR/FB rates in single digits. This past year it was 10.6 percent.

And you just can’t say it’s all ballpark. Busch Stadium was one of the toughest parks to hit a HR in this year (0.736 park factor for HR according to ESPN). Pineiro then allowed more HR in the second half than he did in the first half. Turner Field (0.861 HR factor) and Derek Lowe the same way. Comerica Park (0.974) and Edwin Jackson, too.

By: baluga

baluga — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 00:17:13 +0000

Why is this something we have to “watch going forward?” We have the data for plenty of years going back… it is something that can be easily tested to see if it held true in the past.

No need for these silly “experiments.”

By: opisgod

opisgod — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:52:59 +0000

But why does Roy Halladay have a league average HR/FB? It seems as if all the pitchers with unsustainably low rates are pitching in massive outfields, and vice versa. Kershaw gave up almost no home runs at dodger stadium and the rest came on the road, it’s obvious why.

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:44:35 +0000

I don’t think we can make that assumption yet but it is something to watch going forward. Perhaps an elite pitcher already displaying a significantly reduced HR/FB rate in a given year is likely to maintain that for the remainder of the season.

By: Keith

Keith — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:39:42 +0000

Maybe it is just harder for hitters to get their fly balls out of the park against elite pitchers. Harden was an exception this year as he is pretty elite when healthy. Is it possible that elite pitchers should be assumed to have a lower HR/FB rate than everyone else?

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:54:38 +0000

Good stuff Brian!

I think a fair generalization is that xFIP is a better indicator if the pitcher has a very high HR/FB. Out of the high HR/FB guys, xFIP was better for Blanton, Arroyo, Moyer, Cahill, Porcello, and Harden. FIP was better for Volstad, Looper, Geer, and Randy Johnson.

But RJ and Geer are thrown out because of sample size. Volstad was just plain worse after the break, which neither could have predicted (his BB/9 ratio almost doubled and his K/9 ratio dropped, which has nothing to do with his HR/FB).

So maybe it is fair to say that xFIP does a better job than FIP of identifying buy-low candidates, but doesn’t do any better than FIP for identifying sell-high candidates?