Fontenot Miles Ahead of Aaron
With the versatile Mark DeRosa headed to Cleveland for a trio of minor league arms (Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub), there may be competition for the second base position in the Windy City. The Cubs brought in a “Proven Veteran” to hold down the job (more on him later), but the club’s best bet to replace DeRosa at the keystone was already on the roster: Mike Fontenot.
Originally a 21st-round pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 1999 amateur draft, Fontenot decided to attend Louisiana State University instead of signing with Tampa. Teaming with Ryan Theriot, the lefty-swinging Fontenot enjoyed a successful collegiate career which improved his draft stock dramatically. After leading the Tigers to the 2000 College World Series, Fontenot was plucked by the Baltimore Orioles with the 19th overall selection in the 2001 draft. He endured a lukewarm first season in 2002 (.264/.333/.364 in 481 AB at High-A Frederick), but turned in a solid campaign at AA Bowie in 2003 (.325/.399/.481 in 449 AB).
Following a so-so season at AAA Ottawa in 2004 (.279/.346/.420 in 524 AB), Fontenot was shipped to the North Siders, along with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Dave Crouthers, in exchange for Sammy Sosa. Unfortunately for the Orioles, Sosa’s goose was cooked (he would turn in a sub-replacement level performance in his only season in Baltimore). Fontenot, meanwhile, bided his time in AAA during the ‘05 and ‘06 seasons before finally getting some major league playing time over the past two years.
In about a full-season’s worth of plate appearances, the diminutive second baseman has posted a .290/.369/.457 line, with a 10.8 BB% and a 19.6% whiff rate. Despite receiving just 284 PA last season, Fontenot was about 16 runs above average with the bat, posting a .395 wOBA.
When evaluating Fontenot, it is important to keep in mind that we have a relatively small sample size in terms of projecting his future performance. As such, Marcel isn’t as useful for a player like this (as evidenced by his 0.67 REL score; there’s just not a whole lot of data to go on). For what it’s worth, Marcel projects Fontenot to post a .355 wOBA in 2009. Let’s be pessimistic and pare that figure down to .345. If the 5-8, 170 pounder were to get regular playing time (let’s say, 600 PA), he would be about 5.2 runs above average with the bat.
Compare that to the fellow whom the Cubs just inked to a questionable two-year, $4.9 million deal: Aaron Miles. The 32 year-old posted a decent .331 wOBA in 2008, but that performance was fueled by a .343 BABIP figure: Miles was more or less than same slappy hitter who rarely walks (career 5.6 BB%) and does not drive the ball (.076 ISO). Marcel projects Miles to post a .308 wOBA in ‘09. Over 600 PA, that comes out to about -14.1 runs compared to an average hitter. Clearly, Fontenot is the superior batsman.
It stands to reason, then, that Chicago feels as though Miles’ defensive work makes up the difference. However, it’s pretty difficult to find justification on that front either. Caveat emptor again on the sample size, but Fontenot has posted a 12.4 UZR/150 at second base thus far. Let’s again be pessimistic and halve that number, making Fontenot a +6.2 defender per 150 games. That figure is still well ahead of Miles, who has a career -3.5 UZR/150 at second. Even if we take his marks over the past three years (admittedly better than his career work) and weigh them accordingly, Miles comes out as a +1 run defender. So, Let’s tally up the scores of our second base contestants…
Fontenot
+ 5.2 hitting
+6.2 fielding
+ 2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level
= 33.9 Runs Above Replacement, 3.4 WAR
Miles
-14.1 hitting
+1 fielding
+2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level
= 9.4 Runs Above Replacement, 0.94 WAR
Using these projections, Fontenot bests Miles by nearly two and a half wins. Even if you think that Fontenot’s numbers are still too optimistic and Miles’ too low, it’s exceedingly difficult to close that wide of a gap. Fontenot is without question the better hitter, and it seems likely that his glove will help out the pitching staff more than Miles’ would to boot.
Fantasy owners will want to watch Chicago’s second base situation closely. If the Cubs make the right choice, Mike Fontenot could be a fairly valuable commodity as an up-the-middle player with decent on-base skills and a little more sock than one might think. In a battle between “scrappy” middle infielders, this one really isn’t that close.
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I blogged about this very thing over on a Cubs website, and the thought of Lou giving Miles a majority of the at-bats is just sickening. If anyone can tell me where I can find his lefty righty splits with SABR-type stats, like BABIP and HR/FB against righties, that would be outstanding. I ask that because he was superb against righties, to the point that he turned into Chase Utley against them. I hope that at a minimum, Lou gives him the starting not against every right hander the Cubs face.
Though I like Miles as a bench guy, I wonder why they didnt just use Cedeno for this role. Hed be cheaper, he could platoon with Fontenot and of course back up Theriot at SS.
If you dread seeing him hit, just wait til you watch him in the field! Hopefully he’ll get to play a lot of SS for you guys, too.
Baseball-Reference lists BABIP in most of their splits, including platoon splits. Fontenot had a .343 BABIP and .216 ISO against righties last year and has a .340 career BABIP and .175 career ISO against righties. Miles had a .333 BABIP and .090 ISO against righties last year and .310/.078 over his career. There’s no doubt who should start against righties. Fontenot has barely played against lefties, and Miles is a switch hitter, so maybe Pinella will be suckered into starting Miles against lefthanders, but Miles can’t really hit them either.
For some reason, people think the fact that he has played multiple positions gives him more value too (St. Louis fans use that to compare him to Kennedy all the time), but he’s not that good anywhere on the infield, it just so happens that he’s been stuck everywhere. Kennedy doesn’t get time at short or third, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t play them better than Miles. There’s a reason he’s been non-tendered each of the last 2 years and that the first time he was non-tendered, no one else wanted him.
I’m not sure what all the fuss is about. Sure the Cubs overpaid for Miles, but it’s pretty well known that Pinnella has a mancrush on Fontenot, and also has a jones for left handed hitters. (I think it’s some sort of deep seeded envy back from his playing days as a righty.) Lou’s also a big fan of the platoon as was witnessed in CF last season with Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds.
Look for Miles to fill in on occasion as a super sub, but expect Fontenot to be the opening day starter at 2b. Think 450ab.
To me, it just seems like Aaron Miles is still riding on the fact that he was once a promising middle infielder for the Rockies and big things were expected because he was to be playing at Coors Field.
That being said, two years at $2.45 million a year is kind of chump change for the Cubs, especially with the glut of serviceable young middle infielders they have under favorable contracts. If Miles does play, then there’s something wrong here, obviously, but for a 32-year-old veteran middle infielder to get the occasional spot start, enable roster flexibility, and fill in should someone get injured, it’s not that bad a price for one of the haves.
I don’t hate having Aaron Miles as a Cub, or maybe I do,(as long as he doesn’t take time from the pocket rocket), but there’s just one big fat problem, Aaron Miles already exists on the Cubs and he goes by the name of Ronny Cedeno. Aside from being in Lou’s doghouse, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be the third infielder. Sadly, once you are invited into the doghouse, you usually don’t come out. Also, the DeRosa deal was (largely) a salary dump, so why take half of the savings and waste it on a an unnecessary player who should be playing for the league minimum. This move stinks on all levels.
In any big deal they get done this offseason, a middle infielder will probably be involved. My guess is that middle infielder will be Cedeno. If that is the case, then the Miles signing makes sense if only for added depth.
Now while we all think $2.45 million is a lot, baseball teams are going to hand out contracts to veterans that fans see as too much. We also like to play the role of fantasy GM and re-appropriate the money to some other player, which is not entirely fair as we’re not privy to the inner workings of contract negotiations for starters and we are operating from the standpoint of fans with widespread disregard for other teams’ involvement in the free agency process.
Honestly, $2.45 million a year is not that much to pay when your other three middle infielders are made just $.428 million (Theriot), $.407 million (Cedeno), and $.405 million (Fontenot) in 2008 and would not stand to see that much of an increase in salary.
We may think Miles should be playing for league minimum, but that simply is not the lay of the land for veteran free agents.
Aaron Miles isn’t your typical veteran free agent. He’s a free agent because he was non-tendered: he was under club- and cost-control, but the Cardinals didn’t want him, so he became a free agent. Those guys virtually never get what would typically be considered free-agent money. Just because he’s a free agent doesn’t mean you have to give him 2 years and $5 million. That’s beyond his market value even as a free agent. He was a free agent last year and he signed a $1.4 million contract.
There is not a deal out there that can be done with Cedeno that can’t as easily be done without him. Picking up a more expensive version of him just so you can try to trade him wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense.
The Cubs don’t have unlimited resources. They’re not the Yankees, and they’re probably already overcommitted in payroll. They need those cheap guys like Theriot and Fontenot to get around the big contracts they’ve given out, and adding payroll where it’s really not doing them any good doesn’t make any more sense just because he’s backing up the cheap players. They’re paying him the money no matter who he backs up, and he’s not going to be much good no matter who he backs up.
Perhaps I’m wrong, but I just don’t really see the justification for a signing like this. I’ve never bought into the concept that “we’re underpaying player X, so let’s overpay player Y.” There are certain instances where overpaying for an additional win or two makes sense (for instance, when a team is on the cusp of playoff contention), but Miles does not provide that additional boost.
I guess what it comes down to for me is this: what were the other alternatives available, if we concede that the Cubs needed an additional middle infielder? With all due respect to Aaron Miles, I think we can agree that his skill set is not especially rare. I find it difficult to believe that a comparable alternative was not available, be it from minor league free agency, the waiver wire, a lower-level free agent signing or a small-scale trade. It’s not an earth-shattering move, but Chicago gave a two-year commitment at about 2.5 mil per when a comparable talent likely could have been had for something near the league minimum (400K), with no strings attached.
When we try to break down baseball economics, we tend to focus on the big, long-term deals, and justifiably so. But there’s something to be said for wasting money on the margins of your roster as well.