Free Agent Fantasy Impact: Billy Wagner
In a scenario that seemed ridiculous at the start of the year, Billy Wagner may be one of the most highly sought after relievers this offseason. Wagner missed the majority of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Wagner rejoined the Mets on August 20th, and pitched two innings before being shipped off to Boston.
Even though he pitched only 15.2 innings this year, he proved to suitors that he was healthy by averaging 94mph+ on his fastball. While he only pitched on back-to-back days once, that issue should be resolved with an offseason of continued rehab and rest.
When Wagner did get the chance to pitch, he was back to his old (young?) self. A 14.94 K/9 helped contribute to a 1.72 ERA (2.33 FIP). A 4.60 BB/9 is disappointing, but with a 1.02 WHIP, it’s excusable.
If anyone owned Wagner for their fantasy playoffs, the only real value he provided was strikeouts, as he did not accumulate any saves while in Boston. However, because Wagner is a free agent, he has a chance to give owners a decent amount of saves next year, depending on which team he chooses.
He will not be back in Boston unless they trade Jonathan Papelbon and guarantee Wagner the closer’s role. So, where else could he end up? Speculation is that he would like to remain close to his home in Virginia, with the Nationals and Orioles as the two closest teams. The Orioles aren’t likely to spend a bundle of money on a closer, and the Nationals may be happy with Mike MacDougal. Plus, I would guess Wagner would like to compete for a title instead of toiling away on a sub-.500 team.
Could a return to the Phillies make sense? Brad Lidge has been shaky this year, and Philadelphia could opt to bring in an outside player to help shore up the back end of the bullpen. Because they owe Lidge $11.5MM next year, and Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero a combined $8.5MM, they aren’t likely to invest much more cash in the ‘pen. Don’t count them out, but don’t expect a huge push from them if Wagner asks for the big bucks. If he’s willing to move away from the East Coast, the Giants and Cardinals could be players, along with the Angels and Tigers.
If Wagner can find himself a closer’s job for a contender next year, he will be in the top half of fantasy closers, if not the top 10. His ability to strike batters out and experience in the ninth inning should allow you to draft him with confidence, but make sure to have a backup option ready in case his elbow explodes again.
If he’s not a closer, he is still draftable in deeper and AL/NL only leagues, as he will give you good strikeouts for the amount of your allotted innings he uses.
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My only gripe with expecting too much from Wagner would be his ability to pitch back-to-back days or stay healthy over a full season. While it looked like he was fine toward the end of the 2009 season, I can’t help but think that during his age 38/39 season and coming off major arm surgery (at that age) he’ll be limited or fatigued at some point if not land on the DL.
Over/Under on Drew Storen getting 10-15 saves with the Nats in 2010?
I wouldn’t be surprised in Storen got save ops later in the year, but I don’t think he’ll start the year in the bigs or as the closer.
As far as Wagner is concerned, with all the time off he has now, I won’t be worried about his elbow’s health as much as I probably should be.
Completely agree on Storen. He’s on the fast track though.
I think there’s too much bad blood between the Phillies and Wagner to see a return. Either the Phillies will not consider him or he won’t consider the Phillies or both.
The team that makes the most sense to me is the Cubs. They’ve gotta feel their window is closing, they can afford to spend, and they could use a bullpen upgrade (or a “proven closer”, if you prefer to look at it like that). I agree the Phillies are a non-starter – too much bad blood.
The Cubs would make sense, but I see them going after Rafael Soriano or Jose Valverde, first, and paying enough to land one of them.
I think that if Wagner isn’t a Type A, the Orioles make a lot of sense for him. They have the local ties and are in the market for a closer with Johnson struggling. They have over $30 million coming off the payroll, prospects they don’t want to block at first and third, and a weak free agent market which will lead to their not spending huge sums of money elsewhere. MacPhail and Trembley have spoken repeatedly about the importance of improving the bullpen and having a solid closer now that Tillman, Matusz and the rest of the young pitching is in the majors. And Wagner might be expensive, but will be a one year contract which if he does well can be moved at the deadline.
I can’t see the O’s giving up their second round pick for Wagner, but I can’t really see anyone else giving up a pick for him either. But if he isn’t offered arb, I see Baltimore as an ideal destination for Wagner.
Yes, Baltimore needs a closer. But, wouldn’t they rather have a back end of the bullpen they can build around with their staff? If they aren’t going to contend for the AL East crown, why spend the money on a closer?
Well, long term, they are probably going to build the back end of the bullpen from within. I suspect that either Arrieta or Erbe is the eventual closer in Baltimore, unless Ray returns to his 2007 form (which is unlikely). Uehara is another internal option, but is a free agent after 2010 and is also an older player who isn’t a long-term solution.
As for the why, the question is more of “Why not?” The payroll is going to be at roughly $40 million after arbitration. There aren’t any major offensive improvements that the Orioles can make via free agency at positions of need. But while the O’s can’t contend for the AL East crown, they can have a .500 season, demonstrate they are a team on the verge of contention to 2010 free agents and Baltimore fans, and build the confidence of their young players. Even if they spent $10 million on Wagner (which is more than he’ll cost), they could give out a Strasburg-sized bonus to the third pick in the draft, sign Wieters to a Markakis-level long-term deal, and still be below their 2009 payroll.
We can debate the value of winning ten or fifteen more games to the Orioles franchise, and I’d probably agree with you to an extent. But the Orioles are almost certain to add a reliever who they feel could close regardless, based on their public statements. And Wagner seems to prefer a chance to close for a non-contender than he does playing for a winning team in 2010.
I agree that he’d rather close on a bad team then be the setup man for a good one (I don’t understand why, but whatever). I just think that the Orioles would be better off giving Johnson and Ray another chance.
What about pursuing Chad Cordero? He’s still young (28), and the Mariners won’t pay too much to keep him rehabbing if they don’t think he’ll be ready sometime early next season.
I’d be fine with them pursuing Chad Cordero, although the problem there is that if he isn’t healthy enough for Seattle, he probably isn’t healthy enough to pitch effectively for the O’s.
I think Wagner wants to close on a bad team for two reasons: first, because he thinks he has a shot at the HOF, and second, because this season showed him that he can establish himself as a closer again on a bad team and get dealt to a contender at the deadline to close in the playoffs. Wagner would be closing right now for the Phillies, and would have closed games for the Angels and Cards too in all likelihood. And I think that would be part of the appeal to the Orioles or a similar team as well; Johnson and Ray get another chance, but get to spend half the season in a setup role again reestablishing themselves and gives them time to try and keep David Hernandez, Arrieta and Erbe as starters. Plus, you get to deal Wagner as a player on a one-year deal to a contender at the deadline, which should net you a decent prospect. The Orioles get four months of an improved bullpen and a prospect for five million dollars or so. Wagner gets a four month audition to playoff teams as a closer. Wagner also sees how long people like Hoffman, Eckersley, Smoltz, and Rivera have remained successful and is thinking about his contract and options for 2011. Closing in 2010 gives him the best shot at having good options in 2011 and beyond.
I am emphasizing the upside and minimizing the downside, of course. Wagner could also not want to pitch in the AL East so his numbers look better. The Orioles would probably be better off spending $20 million on Chapman, or maybe even spending $100 million on Lackey. They could really be smart, and instead of spending the money on free agents entirely, spend a record amount of money on scouting, international signings, and the draft. But I don’t think they are likely to do those things, and I do think they are likely to pursue a free agent reliever. And I think there are clearly potential benefits to both Wagner and the O’s for them to sign him to a one year deal for no more than $8 million, and that such a move comes with a relatively low amount of risk.
I believe I heard that Wagner had retired?
Initially he said he was, but his agent denied it and said it was false.