Garrett Atkins and Position Splits
Garrett Atkins drew plenty of interest in the off-season from major league teams. The Phillies, Twins, Rays and Angels have all been linked to Atkins since the end of the 2008 season. But fantasy owners are not showing quite the same interest. Many people view the hot corner as a weak position, yet the third baseman for the Rockies has an ADP in the mid 70s, meaning he’s not going on average until the seventh round.
Atkins put up a .286-21-99-86-1 line last year. These were declines across the board from his standout 2006 season, when he was a top-20 hitter and had a $31 fantasy value. His current ADP values him right around the numbers he put up last year, meaning that fantasy players are not counting on much of a bounce-back season from the 29-year old. This pretty much matches the three projection systems, which show a bump in average but have the rest of Atkins’ numbers maintaining 2008 levels.
Is there any reason to think Atkins can improve upon his 2008 output?
His BABIP for road games last year was just .251, which led to a .233 average away from Coors Field. It is reasonable to think he will improve upon this and add some batting average to his line. But Atkins had good power numbers away from home, hitting 12 of his 21 home runs in road parks. So, even with a more normal BABIP, he’s not likely to add much in the power department.
The other thing that jumps out is Atkins’ split by position. Last year he split time between his normal 3B spot and he also saw considerable time at 1B, filling in for the injured Todd Helton. Here are his splits by position:
3B: .307/.338/.485 in 396 PA
1B: .258/.316/.407 in 263 PA
Prior to 2008, Atkins had appeared in just 10 games at first base. Helton had back surgery at the end of September and his status for the start of the season is up in the air. But the Rockies might let Joe Koshansky fill in for Helton this year after his big season at Triple-A, where he went .300-31-121 in 457 at-bats.
The average fan thinks anyone can play first base and not have it affect their offensive numbers. But players from Mickey Mantle to Mike Piazza have found out otherwise. Perhaps Atkins’ position split last year was nothing more than a fluke. But perhaps it wasn’t.
We all want to draft undervalued players. We search for sleepers and reach for them during the draft, hoping they can match our expectations. But with Atkins, we have a player who is being valued at what he did in 2008. Unlike with our favorite sleeper, we know what Atkins is capable of at the major league level – we saw it three years ago in 2006.
If you pick at the top of your draft and don’t end up with Alex Rodriguez or David Wright, it makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.
That seems like a better idea than reaching for Pablo Sandoval in the 15th round.
5
Brian,
How do you get 31$? For fantasy I tend to just take out the fielding value from the VALUE section to adjust. Though, I think the positional needs to be adjusted for league size with fantasy, I just haven’t figured out how to yet.
Plug in the various levels to fit your league.
http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/player_rater_roto.php
With the depth at third this year, I’m not sure targeting Atkins is the greatest idea. Atkins is part of a tier that extends pretty deep, at least in my opinion.
There is a plethora of third-baggers with the potential to go 90+RBI/R, 25+ Homers, and a .290+ average.
Huff, Mora, Atkins, Cantu, Davis, Glaus, all have that potential with guys like Guillen, Reynolds, Beltre, Figgins and Encarnacion all losing one stat at the addition of another.
While I think Atkins is in for a nice little bounce-back year, he is by no means a must have. Atkins is, however, the type of fantasy player that smart people draft. Low risk, high upside — which cant be said for many of the names listed above.
Hi Kris – thanks for the comment!
I agree that 3B is deeper than many think, especially with the guys who qualify by having played 20+ games there last year like Huff and Youkilis.
However, I’m not sure I would put Mora, Cantu or Glaus as likely to reach a .290+ average.
And the amount you lose in other categories does not make up for the strength in HR (Reynolds, Encarnacion) or SB (Figgins) of the next tier that you mention.
Well, it appears Glaus is a reach now that he’s out but Cantu went .277 last year, and was only a point lower than Atkins in OBP. Cantu is a headache, and i’d agree that Atkins is *more* likely to go .290+ but Cantu has it in him.
I’m not saying you could get Sandoval, Josh Fields, Ian Stewart, Ty Wigginton, Casey Blake, Dallas McPherson in the absolute last round of your draft but, i’m pretty sure that at least one of those late-round third basemen will put up numbers around Atkins.
You could make a VERY convincing argument that third base is so deep that Chipper Jones becomes a top 10 player. You add 200 AB from a replacement level fantasy third-basemen and you’ve essentially got David Wright type numbers with, probably a better average.
Is it reasonable to assume that Atkins will move into the cleanup spot now that holliday is gone and will have more plate appearances with more opportunities to drive in runs?
It seems to me that the Rockies have so much uncertainty surrounding who is going to be in their lineup (and where) that it’s hard to figure out who will bat in which position. If forced to guess, I would say Brad Hawpe bats cleanup and Atkins hits 5th.
I would appreciate it if Rockies fans out there would weigh in on the batting order.
Hawpe generally has some pretty crazy splits, but he improved on them last year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Hawpe took the leading role against righties and Atkins against lefties.
The lineup position is very much a mystery. Todd Helton is should not be hitting 3rd or 4th with his injury problems and lack of power. I would expect with the current players that the lineup would look something like this:
1) Spilborghs CF
2) Helton 1B
3) Atkins 3B
4) Hawpe RF
5) Iannetta C
6) Smith/Stewart LF
7) Tulowitzki SS
8) Barmes/Baker 2B
Hawpe is the better cleanup hitter for sure (although Hurdle tends to drop him in the lineup vs LHP). Atkins doesn’t deserve to be hitting third, but for the first time since…well…ever, the Rockies don’t have an obvious 3-hole hitter, and he has the most experience of anyone capable of putting together a .300+ avg season with power.
Thanks Andrew!
It is also possible that the FO will entertain the idea of giving Stewart a chance at the full time 2B job, replacing Baker/Barmes. In that scanario, I’d envision the lineup being the same, but Smith would slide to 8th….
Kris – In any league where he’s played in more than 50 games, Cantu has topped the .290 mark in average twice. He did it in 2004 in Triple-A (368 AB) and 2000 in A-ball (316 AB). He may have it in him but he sure is scarce about actually doing it.
You’re not going to get Sandoval in the last round of any competitive draft – he’s everyone’s favorite sleeper. Josh Fields is coming off knee surgery, has never played more than 100 games in the majors nor hit for any kind of average. Ian Stewart had a .364 BABIP and hit .259 last year. Ty Wigginton won’t be playing in Houston, where he hit like Barry Bonds, and his road numbers are barely above the Mendoza line. Casey Blake is 35 years old and has a lifetime .264 average. Dallas McPherson has great power and has the best chance to be available in the last few rounds and put up an overall dollar value similar to Atkins, but he has to win a starting job and then keep his BA numbers up.
I’ve made that argument in regards to Jones.
Thanks for chiming in on the Rockies batting order.
I’m a fan of Atkins and I believe he is in for a rebound and could bat somewhere close to .300, 25hrs, 110 RBI. However, I’m staying away from him because I’m convinced he’ll get traded during the season.