Comments on: Gavin Floyd Flying Under the Radar?

By: neuter_your_dogma

neuter_your_dogma — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:24:39 +0000

One thing possibly to consider re: Floyd’s evolution is that 2008 was his first full year in the MLB.

By: MDS

MDS — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:21:04 +0000

espn fantasy analyst? lol theres your problem

By: Ryan

Ryan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:59:57 +0000

Great article. Floyd still doesn’t have a ton of believers as most remember him being a bust in Philly or being a guy who had a so-called lucky 2008…. but from mid summer 2008 on he has been a different guy.

By: B-Chad

B-Chad — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 05:28:19 +0000

Floyd is a guy that I will almost certainly be owning once again next year. He was a guy that I targeted this year as a “toss in,” given his underlying stats. I love the improvement in inducing GB’s. The higher k/9 is nice, and the lower BB/9 is gravy. Most people will look at his “actual,” stats and see a ho hum starter. As you’ve pointed out in this awesome article, he was better then those stats would lead one to believe. My personal opinion is that Floyd will be drafted as a 4th-5th starter in 12 team leagues (putting him in the 48-60 range for starting pitchers). I believe his actual numbers by season’s end next year will rank in the top 40 for starting pitchers, maybe even the top 35.

By: Scottwood

Scottwood — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:38:21 +0000

Again, on the average, you are correct. But, like with BABIP, some pitchers are able to exhibit a bit better control of their HR/FB ratio than others. I do prefer xFIP over FIP b/c it does take a lot of data on a pitcher to establish a baseline for him. But, CC Sabathia is one pitcher who has a career 8.4% HR/FB ratio and he kept it below normal this season even as he went to new Yankee Stadium. Justin Verlander is another pitcher who has kept his HR/FB ratio below average in a pretty neutral ballpark. We only have 4 years of data on him, but so far he has limited his HR/FB ratio. He will be one to keep an eye on to see if that continues.

By: Eric Cioe

Eric Cioe — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:55:25 +0000

Floyd broke 95 in two starts this season.

He’s a good pitcher but he’s a breaking ball kind of guy. His fastball isn’t much next to his curve and lately his slider.

By: scott

scott — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:35:12 +0000

it was more than just that…some pretty serious circulation issues in his left hand, as well

By: Ben

Ben — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:38:46 +0000

Excellent article. Floyd has gone from overrated to underrated a few times in his career already and now is a great time to jump on the bandwagon, acquire him in fantasy leagues, etc. All of these improvements would look even more dramatic if you just looked at 2H numbers.

By: David MVP Eckstein

David MVP Eckstein — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:39:53 +0000

I would have to disagree.

As expounded upon at THT (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/explaining-lips/), BP and other places, a pitcher really only controls a handful of things: strikeouts, type of contact, and walks. Park effects tend to be the only factor that affects HR/FB rates with a true correlative effect, at least in the data sets i have perused.

It is outside of the pitcher’s controls how much of the ball albert pujols will hit. The pitcher can just go for a straight whiff or a type of contact (ie, keep the ball low and with sink), but after he has thrown it, it is up to pujol’s to guess as to where/how to hit it.

By: R M

R M — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:42:48 +0000

A blister seems trivial but we all saw how greatly if affected Beckett in his early career….that could be a possibility….