I noticed those trends, but to be honest, I’m just not entirely sure what to make of first-half, second-half splits. I know that Tom Tango has done research that shows, on the whole, they have very little predictive value (a player whose performance varies greatly from one half to the other tends to see his performance regress to the mean).

I think it’s possible that Floyd made some legitimate improvements, but I’m skeptical. I think that the more data you have the better, and on the whole, Floyd’s actual performance exceeded what we would have expected.

In his last 110 innings his K rate was 7.2, BB rate 2.9, HR rate 1.30 (and ERA 4.23).

While I agree that Floyd is unlikely to maintain a 3.84 ERA next year, he did some legitimate in-season improvement. The Floyd of the final 110 innings could be real, and if it is, he might be able to keep his ERA to around 4.20 or so.