Comments on: Harden on the Market

By: G

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 03:20:11 +0000

But his crazy increase in HR/FB% does suggest he’ll likely give up fewer HR in the future.

Regarding his FA status, I wonder what kind of offers he’ll get. How many years? How much money per year?

By: Jay Smith

Jay Smith — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:27:45 +0000

The problem I have with the ‘just enough’ home run stat is that it doesnt include the ‘just barely not enough’ hits, which land on the warning track. Those could easily turn into more home runs if every hitter picks up on harden’s game just the tiniest bit. Kind of a misleading stat that could work in either direction, and doesn’t really support Harden’s case to be ‘better’.

By: Neil

Neil — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:09:10 +0000

One thing to note is that Harden has difficulty staying in the games that he starts. His IP per start in 2008 was only 5.9 and his IP per start in 2009 was only 5.4. Only 11 MLB pitchers had a worse IP per start than Harden in 2009 (minimum 100 IP).

IP per start is important for predicting wins because guys like Harden (and Scherzer and Kershaw) either:

Don’t qualify for the win by not completing 5 full innings
Rely on the bullpen to hold a lead over 3 or 4 innings
Are on the bench and are not the beneficiary of go-ahead runs scored in the 6th and 7th innings – so a random bullpen guy gets the win

Subjectively, when you follow Harden and Scherzer’s games, even when they give you 5 or 6 innings of 1 run ball, they often need 90 or more pitches and run into frequent jams. And as maximum velocity guys, there seems to be no correlation between the hitter and the outcome…they are seemingly just as likely to walk the #8 or #9 hitter as they are the cleanup hitter. When their control is on, they are unhittable, but when they struggle to find the plate, it’s nothing but walks and Ks for 5 IP.

By: Jeffrey Gross

Jeffrey Gross — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:04:04 +0000

well i guess technically one of his “fastballs” is a “changeup” but I dont like to classify stuff in the mid upper 80s as a “change up”

By: Jeffrey Gross

Jeffrey Gross — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:03:05 +0000

He just throws 2 pitches. His fastball are so radically different though

By: dan woytek

dan woytek — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:51:59 +0000

It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on his health especially since he doesn’t throw the slider anymore, really. According to the graphs it went from about a 3 percent rate on his slider usage in 08 to none in 09. (up from a high of 17 percent in 04)

By: Samuel Lingle

Samuel Lingle — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:39:46 +0000

Harden’s value could fluctuate quite a bit depending on what team he signs with. Playing in Seattle vs. playing in Cincinatti or something would have a very significant effect on his ERA, and as such his win totals, too.

Either way, he’ll probably be a good value. Even if he misses time the production he gives you is elite while he’s in your lineup, so it’s still probably a plus with a waiver wire guy filling in his missing innings.

By: Jeffrey Gross

Jeffrey Gross — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:58:21 +0000

I entirely agree. Harden will probably cost about the same, if not less, than a guy like Jose Valverde, and yet you will prob. get 2x as many innings out of harden.

It’s a risk teams should be willing to take

By: Bradley

Bradley — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:41:28 +0000

Excellent analysis Golebiewski. I picked Harden up last year after the All-Star Break, which proved highly fortuitous. During that span, I noticed that (despite his inflated FIP) his controllables were stellar, his luck — not so much.

I think it’s also worth noting that in ’08 and ’09 he put together back-to-back seasons with 140+ innings — something he’s never done. Because of his injury history, I think there’s a chance he could be a quasi-sleeper this year (both in fantasy and reality).