Haren Keeps On Improving
When Dan Haren was shipped from the A’s to the Diamondbacks for a king’s ransom of prospects (Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith) in December of 2007, he was already regarded as one of the top starters in the majors. Oakland plucked the right-hander from St. Louis back in 2004 as part of the lamentable (from a Redbirds standpoint) Mark Mulder deal.
In his three seasons wearing green and gold, Haren posted FIP’s of 3.89, 4.12 and 3.70. Haren accumulated an average of 4.3 Wins Above Replacement, and his performance was worth a total of nearly $49 million to the A’s. From 2005-2007, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was a robust 3.47-to-one.
As it turns out, Haren was just getting started. Check out his numbers since heading to the desert:
2008: 216 IP, 3.01 FIP, 5.15 K/BB
2009: 130 IP, 2.70 FIP, 8.06 K/BB
The shaggy righty was worth 6.4 WAR in 2008 ($28.8M on the free agent market), and he’s on pace to obliterate that total with 4.3 WAR already in 2009. He has basically morphed from an All-Star level starter to some Curt Schilling-esque control deity.
Haren has always possessed a deep mix of pitches, but there’s really no telling what he’ll chuck to hitters these days. In his first year with Oakland back in 2005, Haren threw his fastball 59.2% of the time. This season, he has only called on the heater 47.6%. That 91 MPH offering has been dominant (tops among all starters at +2.47 runs/100 pitches; knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is a very distant second at +1.57). But that’s just the opening act for Haren:
86.7 MPH cutter (thrown 19.6% of the time): +2.67 runs/100
78.3 MPH curveball (thrown 20%): +0.13
85.3 MPH splitter (thrown 12.8%): +2.24
Haren’s cutter ranks 4th among qualified starters in total run value at +9.8 runs (a counting stat, compared to the rate stat of runs/100; some guys at the top of the leader board have high runs/100 values but pretty much never throw the pitch in question). His splitter checks in at number two in total run value, at +5.4. In other words, Mr. Haren has three out pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter), with a league-average curve in his back pocket for good measure.
Want to see confusion in the batter’s box personified? Take a look at Haren’s plate discipline stats sometime. In 2005, his Outside-Swing% was 24.1%, close to the MLB average. Hitters have chased Haren’s stuff out of the zone about 30% of the time during his Arizona tenure. His overall contact rate sat around 80% during his time with the A’s (right around the MLB average), but it’s down to 74.7% in 2009.
Haren’s First-Pitch Strike% is up nearly 10 percent since his Oakland days (from 59.2% in 2005 to 68.3% in 2009; the MLB avg. is 58 percent). Opposing batters are also more timid when it comes to taking a hack against pitches within the zone, as Danny’s Z-Swing% (pct. of pitches swung at within the strike zone) has dropped from 68% in ’05 to 62.7% in 2009 (the MLB average is about 66 percent).
Dan Haren is awesome. I know this is not a particularly shocking conclusion: everyone knows he’s great. But I’m not sure that most realize just how great Haren has become. The 28 year-old deserves a prominent place in the discussion of baseball’s best starter.
13
The real question with Haren is whether he can sustain the performance over an entire season.
He better. Even though DBacks aren’t going far, still like to see him win the Cy Young.
He’s going to need some help winning games to get the Cy. For whatever reason record is seemingly the most important stat in naming a Cy Young. Haren’s 9-5 doesn’t hold up well against Lincecum’s 10-2.
His pre-AllStar/post-AllStar splits were very distinct in ’06, ’07, & ’08, and given how well he’s played thus far in ’09, they almost HAVE TO continue that trend. You likely have to label it non-random at some point, no?
I think the cutter he’s throwing this season has put him over the hump and into the top tier. I’ve watched nearly all his D-Back career starts. I’m not a big numbers guy but I’ve seen with my own eyes how that pitch can neutralize leftys. The cutter and split have to be two of the best pitches in baseball. Add in the fastball command and curve(which looks better than just league average to me). He’s probably even in the mix for a gold glove and silver slugger. It’s a shame…some of Haren’s L’s, ND’s and blown W’s have been some of the poorest played games in D-Back history. He’s had one bad start all year when Oak basically closed their eyes and swung for the fences against him and hit 4 bombs. He even said after that game he changed his approach because it’s tough to hit homers there but the ball was flying out. If he pitched his regular game he probably shuts them down too.
And no mention of his sub .250 BABIP and 83% strand rate?
I wondered the same thing
well he keeps hitters off balance
and he is not only one of the best but HE IS THE BEST STARTER IN BASEBALL
Haren is one guy who I think just plain out-thinks the guys he’s facing. It’s really funny to watch a guy like Todd Helton think, “well, he struck me out on the split last time, so he probably won’t throw that again, and I just roped an inside corner fastball 350 feet, so he probably won’t throw that again, and …” and then Haren freezes him on a fastball on the outside black. Or a backdoor curve. Or gets him to chase a cutter down and in. He can do anything with 4 pitches from a pure stuff perspective just aren’t that impressive. He hasn’t got Verlander’s heat, Lincecum’s splitter, or Beckett’s curve. What he’s got is basically pinpoint control of 4 average or better pitches and an ability to think about three pitches ahead of the hitters. He’s the most fun pitcher in baseball to watch because of that.
And his windup would be called a balk so fast if anyone was on base, it reminds me of Paige’s hesitation pitch, and we all know what happened to that.
I was wondering about Danny’s second half slumps too… I haven’t, but has anyone looked into the numbers to see what’s been dropping off?
Dan Haren’s First Half last season:
8 W, 2.72 ERA, 125.2 IP, 112 K (8.0 K/BB), 22 BB (1.58 BB/9), 5.09 K/BB, 10 HR (0.72 HR/9), 98 Hits, 0.96 WHIP
Dan Haren’s Second Half last season:
8 W, 4.18 ERA, 90.1 IP, 94 K (9.4 K/9), 18 BB (1.79 BB/9), 5.22 K/BB, 9 HR (0.90 HR/9), 106 Hits, 1.37 WHIP
Yes, from a fantasy perspective, Haren was worse in 2 categories (ERA, WHIP) after the all-star break, but he also improved another category (Ks) and remained consistent in another (Ws, however irrelevant they may be). His ERA/WHIP were also very serviceable; a far cry from horrible by any means. When people like Matthew Berry bash Haren, it makes me mad.
From a real life perspective, Dan Haren was almost as good in the second half as he was in the first half — just less lucky. Haren’s control improved and while the BBs and HRs per nine regressed a little, Haren’s peripherals across the board were solid and consistent. If anything got worse, it was the hits rate per nine — something that Voros McCracken and the minds at BP proved long ago that a pitcher has little, if any control over (although some pitchers — mainly strikeout pitchers — do seem to exert more “control” over hits per nine than others).
In fact, Dan Haren’s real life career splits look like this:
1st Half
35 W, 3.23 ERA, 599.1 IP, 488 K (7.3 K/9), 134 BB (2.01 BB/9), 3.64 K/BB, 62 HR (0.93 HR/9), 516 Hits, 1.09 WHIP, 3.59 FIP
2nd Half:
34 W, 4.12 ERA, 476 IP, 402 K (7.6K/9), 108 BB (2.04 BB/9), 3.72 K/BB, 60 HR (1.13 HR/9), 524 Hits, 1.33 WHIP, 3.83 FIP
What does this data tell me? Haren is not a second half fizzle. The difference is FIP (0.24 runs per nine) is somewhat marginal if we talk about a player’s second half “regression.” Haren gives up a few more HR/9 in the second half, perhaps because he plays at Chase field in the middle of the summer during the second half, but that’s about it. The hits he allows also increase in the second half, but Haren’s been in front of some notoriously terrible defensive lineups in Oakland (surprisingly) and Arizona, so he can hardly be blamed for their fielding failures. Many baseball analysts look at Dan Haren’s previous three year splits and say “look, its a trend!” However, here are the UZR/150 and League Ranking for each of the teams Dan Haren has played for over the past 3 seasons:
Oakland, 2006: -1.3 fielding runs, 16th worst in baseball (15/30)
Oakland, 2007: -3.8 fielding runs, 8th worst in baseball (23/30)
Arizona, 2008: -5.2 fielding runs, 8th worst in baseball (23/30)
Simply put, Dan Haren has played for bottom half of the league defensive teams (negative fielding runs) in each of the past three seasons.
Haren has been a premier pitching force since his debut and he’s only been getting better each season (and the new, improved cutter has definitively pushed him into the top tier of pitchers). His control is Maddux-like and if it weren’t for a terrible offense/defense behind him, he would be a perennial Cy Young winner. I think people Matthew Berry needs to read this post and apologize.
Fantastic analysis
Dan Haren’s First Half last season:
8 W, 2.72 ERA, 125.2 IP, 112 K (8.0 K/BB), 22 BB (1.58 BB/9), 5.09 K/BB, 10 HR (0.72 HR/9), 98 Hits, 0.96 WHIP
Dan Haren’s Second Half last season:
8 W, 4.18 ERA, 90.1 IP, 94 K (9.4 K/9), 18 BB (1.79 BB/9), 5.22 K/BB, 9 HR (0.90 HR/9), 106 Hits, 1.37 WHIP
Yes, from a fantasy perspective, Haren was worse in 2 categories (ERA, WHIP) after the all-star break, but he also improved another category (Ks) and remained consistent in another (Ws, however irrelevant they may be). His ERA/WHIP were also very serviceable; a far cry from horrible by any means. When people like Matthew Berry bash Haren, it makes me mad.
From a real life perspective, Dan Haren was almost as good in the second half as he was in the first half — just less lucky. Haren’s control improved and while the BBs and HRs per nine regressed a little, Haren’s peripherals across the board were solid and consistent. If anything got worse, it was the hits rate per nine — something that Voros McCracken and the minds at BP proved long ago that a pitcher has little, if any control over (although some pitchers — mainly strikeout pitchers — do seem to exert more “control” over hits per nine than others).
In fact, Dan Haren’s real life career splits look like this:
1st Half
35 W, 3.23 ERA, 599.1 IP, 488 K (7.3 K/9), 134 BB (2.01 BB/9), 3.64 K/BB, 62 HR (0.93 HR/9), 516 Hits, 1.09 WHIP, 3.59 FIP
2nd Half:
34 W, 4.12 ERA, 476 IP, 402 K (7.6K/9), 108 BB (2.04 BB/9), 3.72 K/BB, 60 HR (1.13 HR/9), 524 Hits, 1.33 WHIP, 3.83 FIP
What does this data tell me? Haren is not a second half fizzle. The difference is FIP (0.24 runs per nine) is somewhat marginal if we talk about a player’s second half “regression.” Haren gives up a few more HR/9 in the second half, perhaps because he plays at Chase field in the middle of the summer during the second half, but that’s about it. The hits he allows also increase in the second half, but Haren’s been in front of some notoriously terrible defensive lineups in Oakland (surprisingly) and Arizona, so he can hardly be blamed for their fielding failures. Many baseball analysts look at Dan Haren’s previous three year splits and say “look, its a trend!” However, here are the UZR/150 and League Ranking for each of the teams Dan Haren has played for over the past 3 seasons:
Oakland, 2006: -1.3 fielding runs, 16th worst in baseball (15/30)
Oakland, 2007: -3.8 fielding runs, 8th worst in baseball (23/30)
Arizona, 2008: -5.2 fielding runs, 8th worst in baseball (23/30)
Simply put, Dan Haren has played for bottom half of the league defensive teams (negative fielding runs) in each of the past three seasons.
Haren has been a premier pitching force since his debut and he’s only been getting better each season (and the new, improved cutter has definitively pushed him into the top tier of pitchers). His control is Maddux-like and if it weren’t for a terrible offense/defense behind him, he would be a perennial Cy Young winner. This season, however, the Diamondbacks have the 8th best overall UZR/150, which leads me to believe that not only is Haren more likely to sustain his first half success, but maintain his “regression-imminent” peripherals such as the low BABIP and high LOB%.
There is just so much to love about Dan Haren. Let me just point out a handful (many of which have been highlighted already):
1) Sick control. Dan Haren’s 7.43 K/BB leads the majors
2) Sick command. Dan Haren’s 1.17 BB/9 also leads the majors
3) Improving pitches. This season, Haren’s fastball quality has almost doubled in value, while his cutter has continued to improve and his split finger fastball is back to form (from -1.4 runs/100 pitchs to +4.5)
4) A four plus-pitch mix. Each of Dan Haren’s four pitches (fastball, cutter, curveball, splitfinger fastball) have positive runs/100 pitch values and good mixture (none is thrown less than 13.8% or more than 48% of the time)
5) The Diamondbacks containing the 8th best outfield AND overall defense in baseball right. The ranginess of the outfielders in Arizona lend a big helping hand to Haren’s continued success. Just ask Jarrod Washburn.