How to Beat the Dungeon Master
Now that we know what kind of fantasy owners are out there, it’s time to discuss how to best humiliate, destroy and take advantage of the worst one of them. Today, how to beat the Dungeon Master. To refresh your memory, here is my crackpot definition of the Dungeon Master:
They play in so many leagues and attend so many mock drafts that you begin to worry about their safety. Chances are, if you are reading this blog (or writing on it), you may be the Dungeon Master. The Dungeon Master is always cool and collected at draft time. Even when his players aren’t making it to him in drafts, he has plan 1A at the ready. Be careful when trading with him, as he is probably looking to screw you over.
So, how do you beat the player who knows it all? There are a couple simple maneuvers you can pull on draft day and beyond to take down the Dungeon Master:
1. On draft day, you may have to reach a little for players. Since the Dungeon Master isn’t playing off the stock rankings, you shouldn’t be either. If you like a player that isn’t supposed to go for another 10 picks, but you don’t think he’ll make it back to you, take him. You cannot risk it. If you think a player is the best person left on the board, pounce on him.
2. Be social. The Dungeon Master fears four things in life: Sunlight, conversation, women and salad. He never goes out in public, so he doesn’t know how to react when he is taunted. He could take Albert Pujols with the tenth pick in the draft, and you should still heckle him. He may get thrown off his game enough to make a mistake. Don’t stop until he cries, drafts Carlos Silva, or wets himself.
3. Flooding his inbox with trade requests is another popular option. You can hope he has a moment of weakness and accepts, or simply hits the wrong button and accepts it anyway. Believe me, it’s happened.
4. Read RotoGraphs and study up enough to turn yourself into a Dungeon Master. It works, but only if you give up the rest of your life. And it’s worth it, I promise.
In the end, you are going to need some luck to beat a Dungeon Master. You have to hope his famously durable players succumb to crippling injuries (Brandon Webb) and for his team to slip in the standings. Finishing in second behind a Dungeon Master is nothing to shake a stick at.
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You can always capitalise on his over-analysis, too. You know what he’s going to do, eh? His catcher will only come late, his saves will be cheap, and he’s going to overvalue youth and projection.
“The Dungeon Master fears four things in life: Sunlight, conversation, women and salad. ”
Funniest and truest thing I have read in ROTO print all year..
He may fear live one on one conversation, but he does love electronic conversation. He feels comfortable behind the wall of email and the trade offer button.
One more way to mess with a dungeon master: Tease him with players he covets on your team.. Send him an email and tell him you are considering trading said highly coveted player. Watch him literally lick his tasty , weasel like lips as you float him a morsel …. He will hound you day and night i he even thinks he can get him. He will tell how good a deal it is for you..
Keep saying no…He will keep coming with more and more…He may screw up and offer more than he should, but if he doesnt you got 3 days of entertainment for yourself while getting him all worked up..
To make it even worse, trade him to someone else after 3 days..OUCH..He will not crawl out of the basement for days…
Fortunetly I was able to find love before the transformation. She accepts me for who I am and understands why I don’t eat salad anymore. Real dungeon masters play Strat-O!
Glad you found love. Now just don’t over-inflate. ;-)
Since many of those reading this blog fit the profile (not me of course, but I have this friend…) how about some notes on typical DM weaknesses/blind spots? Jacque Strapp had a few trends listed, but do those sort of tendencies lead to bad picks???
My, umm, friend does tend to overvalue youth. How can one gain a bit of sobriety in that regard?
Reminding yourself that numbers rarely extrapolate based on ABs is probably a good start. The rookie who hit 15 HRs in 250 ABs usually seems to hit more like 20 HRs in 500 ABs in his second year instead of 30 HRs.
Still, I feel like I HAVE been conservative with my expectations for guys like McCutchen, Carlos Gonzales, Julio Borbon…and they still scream value to me based on their ADP.
How about Bruce? He’s logged a good number of at bats, hit at a 37 HR pace last year, and will likely fall a bit from last year’s draft position. But he still hasn’t actually put up a full season of stats.
Oh, and I can debate for an hour why I like Chris Davis in the 14th round…more than Berkman or Lee in the 8th.
I didn’t see a “reply” button after your second post, so I’ll answer here. I think the hard part is that some of those guys still will be values. Here are just some things to think about off the top of my head…
1) How knowledgeable are the other teams in your league? How many will have even heard of mockdraftcentral? Do you suspect they all just use the rankings of your league (e.g., ESPN) instead? This could really make a difference, as it could mean the difference between overvaluing someone like Nolan Reimold or not even ever hearing his name before.
2) Back up your projections with support from early news, especially projected playing time and projected lineup. Bruce looks like he’s assured a starting spot unless he’s awful. CarGo is slated to start, but with Fowler, Smith and Hawpe all solid choices for the Rockies as well, there could be a question of playing time.
3) Realize young players do tend to get better the first few years, so they’re not necessarily bad picks.
4) There’s no need to wait until the end of the draft to go for higher-risk/higher-upside players, but if you pick them earlier, maybe you could just be more cautious when drafting older players in terms of injuries (e.g., choosing Jason Bay over Soriano).
5) Be honest with yourself about a player’s downsides as well as upsides. For example, Chris Davis was hyped up a ton last year, but his problems with contact were already widely known. Be sure to project potential downsides as well as upside (e.g., 200 Ks and a subsequent benching as a possibility as well as 30 HRs).
Hope that helps!
Further tips on spotting the Dungeon Master, and dealing with him (from a self-confessed D.M.)
1. Some of his FA picks ups are date stamped at 2:37 a.m.
2. he always offers you the ‘quantity for quality’ trades
3. His profile shows he’s in 17 leagues this year
4. He’s the commissioner of your league
5. At the end of his series of 4 trades in 7 days, you wonder “How the heck did he just get Hanley Ramirez and Tim Lincecum?”
And I agree with rotodog…Dangle your best players and have fun with him for a few weeks. And here’s another twist – do this especially near the trade deadline, so you distract him from the deals he could be making elsewhere, while you make your deadline deal with someone else.
Love the ‘twist’! Trade discussions in my league usually aren’t shared among owners, so that could actually be something I employ this year!
Not sure why teams don’t just flat out say “I’m shopping X player, can you beat this offer?” Many deals each year are surprising to me, where I’d certainly have paid more for one side of the trade.
If someone did that to me, my offer would be gone instantaneously.
@ Jacque
You don’t think that game is played among real GMs? Or agents? *cough*boras*cough*
I see no problem with a team trying to get the most return on their asset(s). Perhaps it would be more palatable if the other team’s players were kept anonymous?
If “Boras would do it” is your defense, you just folded.
Is it done even in fantasy leagues? Sure. But I’m not sitting back and letting someone do that to me so brazenly.
Yeah, my league frowns upon spamming people with trade requests and it can get you booted, so that tip isn’t quite as helpful. The rest of this I’m already working on employing.
I am the Dungeon Master.
None of these tactics work on me. I’ve seen them and all their variations a hundred times.
Before I even open your e-mail, I know what you’re trying to pull; and have already figured out how to turn your backup catcher into a chit in a bewildering series of trades in which I give up said catcher, Carlos Silva, and Emmanuel Buriss and wind up with Hanely Ramirez and Tim Lincecum.
Fear me. Worship me. Accept the inevitable and send your check now.
Who is John Galt?