If Able, Sell High on Cain
San Francisco Giants righty Matt Cain is a hurler who many considered to be on the cusp of a major breakout. His performances during his first three years in the rotation were very good, to be sure, with Fielding Independent ERA’s ranging from 3.78 to 3.96 and strikeout-to-walk ratios hovering slightly over 2/1. Still, the sturdy 6-3 frame, low-90’s gas, hard slider, slow curve and changeup hinted that Cain could possibly reach another level.
If one were to take just a quick glance at Cain’s 2009 season, that breakout would appear to be in progress. After all, the 24 year-old’s notoriously poor run support that produced Maroth-like Win-Loss records hasn’t doomed him, as he sits at 4-1. His ERA checks in at a tidy 2.65 to boot. He’s an ace now, right?
Not so fast. Cain might possess the shiny W-L tally and a lower ERA than Lincecum, but in most respects, he has actually taken a step backward this season. Cain’s FIP is 4.85 in 51 frames, by far the highest mark of his career. His strikeout rate, which peaked at 8.45 batters per nine innings in 2006 and sat around the mid-sevens in ‘07 and ‘08, is just 6.00 in 2009.
The K rate wouldn’t be the end of the world if Cain had made commensurate improvement in terms of limiting the free passes. Unfortunately, he’s as wild as ever: 4.41 walks per nine innings. Batters seem to have taken note of Cain’s inability to locate, as opponents have offered at just 18.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (22.7% career average, 24.3% MLB average).
A true power pitcher when he broke into the big leagues (sitting between 93.2-93.4 MPH from 2005 to 2007), Cain now has a lower-octane fastball (91.6 MPH). In addition, his slider doesn’t appear to be the same knock-out pitch these days.
While it hasn’t surrendered any velocity, Cain’s slider isn’t moving away from righty batters like it used to. In 2007, the breaker tailed away from righties 3.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In 2008, that figure dipped to 3.4 (the league average for a righty pitcher) and comes in at just 2.6 inches this season.
The negative trend with Cain’s slider is also apparent through FanGraphs’ new pitch linear weights section (seriously, how cool is this stuff?): the slider was 1.37 runs above average per 100 pitches in ‘07, 1.23 in ‘08 and actually comes in at -2.33 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Not coincidentally, Cain’s usage of the pitch has declined each year: 16.5% in 2007, 13.8% in 2008 and 10% this year. Those sliders have been replaced with more curveballs (from 8.6% in 2007 to 16.8% in 2009), which come in as below average (-0.76 runs per 100 pitches this season, -1.92 per 100 pitches in 2008).
Given these trends, it’s not especially surprising to see that Cain’s performance against same-side batters has trailed off (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference):
Cain vs. RHB:
2007: .224/.291/.370
2008: .235/.312/.378
2009: .293/.404/.500
None of this is to say that Cain is a bad pitcher, or that he won’t show improvement as the year goes on. However, his current levels aren’t anywhere near sustainable if he continues to post similar peripherals; he can’t continue to post a .257 BABIP or a near-90 percent strand rate. Cain is good, but he’s not the great pitcher that his surface stats would indicate. If you can cash in now by selling high, by all means do.
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As a Giant fan I love Matt Cain, but even I will admit that he is pitching a lot better than his ERA suggests. I’m astonished that Cain hasn’t taken the next step in his career yet. He seemed poised to develop as an ace, and up til now he hasn’t.
Traded him for Lackey straight up, thanks for the advice
Traded him straight up for JJ Hardy a couple days ago….people were screaming, but I was one of the lucky teams to have Rickie Weeks, so I needed an IF replacement.
I got Brandon Phillips for Matt Cain a couple of weeks back.
If able, you should STFU!
im with matt cain on that one. sounds like he knows what hes doing then, if the slider isnt working as good throw something else (thats what good players do). yes you can sell high but greatness isnt allways shown on paper sometimes its shown on the feild…maybe hes just special….BTW he pitched a GEM tonight
Actually, I tend to agree with David. Matt Cain is an intriguing young pitcher, but I just don’t think he’s as good as Giants fans or their announcers make him out to be. Ultimately, he has the upside to be a dominant #1 starter, but I still don’t think he’s there yet.
I’ve watched a number of Cain’s starts this year and he’s playing with fire. He issues too many free passes and simply doesn’t strike out enough hitters to offset the extra base runners. Most of the time when I watch Cain pitch, he plays with fire. He has yet to really pay the price for all the base runners he allows, but it seems inevitable that he will. On the season, Cain has an 89.1% LOB%, which is well above his 74.5% career mark and certainly not sustainable for a pitcher who strikes out only 6.0 hitters per nine innings. As of now, he’s preventing runs at a much higher rate than can be reasonably expected.
If I was in a keeper league, I’d consider holding on to him, but in a single season league I’d be very comfortable selling high on him. The Giants are a terrible offensive team and Cain is likely to regress. Get out while the getting is good.
Anyway, my $.02.
I like Cain but I got a chance to move him and Davis for Billingsly and I took the deal.
Congratulations on committing robbery.
I do like Cain but I watched that Met game and I don’t know how he got out of all that trouble. I traded Cain for Lester since I can sit on him and wait to see if he brings it around. Hopefully it works out.
His increased walk rate is mostly from a few fluky innings. One more start like he had in Seattle and his FIP will be back to his career norms.
Not worried yet.
Would you trade him for Cantu?
Just traded Cain and Francisco for Cole Hamels…
I stole him, right?
Sell high on Cain, buy low on Hamels?
Cain always has a terrible FIP in April/May. Look at his career K/BB in the beginning of the season as opposed to the rest of the year. Cain has already showed signs of continuing this trend. If you can get a steal like some of the ones in this thread, by all means do it, but otherwise hold onto him, and he’ll be a solid #2 from here on out.