Comments on: Incredible Oscillating BABIPs http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/ Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:45:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: acerimusdux http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/#comment-4147 acerimusdux Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:30:51 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=4285#comment-4147 Yup. This has always been the difficulty with BABIP. For pitchers, this is the reason some early studies found no control over BABIP. Looking at year to year data, it is almost all noise. Look at careers, and you do find some significant control. For pitchers, it has since been found that the standard deviation in true talent ability to control BABIP is around 10 points. So if the average is around .298, 2/3 of pitchers will be from .288-.308 in true ability. But the variance in year to year samples will be much greater than that. Hitters have a bit more control, with a standard deviation in true talent likely almost 20 points. The probability of being 3 SD from the mean is 1 in 1000. A guy like Ichiro may be one of those one in one thousand players, with a true talent BABIP ability of near .360. But it's tough to identify a guy like that for certain, especially using small samples. So any estimator will likely err on the side of assuming he's not the one in one thousand, until there is really sufficient data to think otherwise. This one doesn't seem to work for a large sample, The SB formula seems designed for single season numbers, and probably needs to be adjusted to work per AB or PA. Yup.

This has always been the difficulty with BABIP. For pitchers, this is the reason some early studies found no control over BABIP. Looking at year to year data, it is almost all noise. Look at careers, and you do find some significant control.

For pitchers, it has since been found that the standard deviation in true talent ability to control BABIP is around 10 points. So if the average is around .298, 2/3 of pitchers will be from .288-.308 in true ability. But the variance in year to year samples will be much greater than that.

Hitters have a bit more control, with a standard deviation in true talent likely almost 20 points. The probability of being 3 SD from the mean is 1 in 1000. A guy like Ichiro may be one of those one in one thousand players, with a true talent BABIP ability of near .360.

But it’s tough to identify a guy like that for certain, especially using small samples. So any estimator will likely err on the side of assuming he’s not the one in one thousand, until there is really sufficient data to think otherwise.

This one doesn’t seem to work for a large sample, The SB formula seems designed for single season numbers, and probably needs to be adjusted to work per AB or PA.

]]> By: New Blog http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/#comment-4105 New Blog Thu, 30 Jul 2009 02:59:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=4285#comment-4105 http://unobstructedview.wordpress.com/ http://unobstructedview.wordpress.com/

]]> By: Chris http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/#comment-4103 Chris Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:16:24 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=4285#comment-4103 please replace the word anagram with acronym...d'oh! please replace the word anagram with acronym…d’oh!

]]> By: Chris http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/#comment-4102 Chris Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:14:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=4285#comment-4102 Nice notification on the calculator...but I wish to use this time to bring up an argument completely unrelated to baseball. From an anagram perspective, BABIP is just too damn long. I like my baseball anagrams to sound like a ruthless government agency, not an excessively wordy international relief fund. Can't we just shorten it to AIP...Average In Play? We can at least get rid of that second B can't we? I mean, it's not as if players are hitting chickens or orphans into play...of course they are hitting balls, that's what they do. I don't know...I'm just saying, that stat itself is never going to be more than four digits...the name should be four digits or fewer too. Nice notification on the calculator…but I wish to use this time to bring up an argument completely unrelated to baseball. From an anagram perspective, BABIP is just too damn long. I like my baseball anagrams to sound like a ruthless government agency, not an excessively wordy international relief fund. Can’t we just shorten it to AIP…Average In Play? We can at least get rid of that second B can’t we? I mean, it’s not as if players are hitting chickens or orphans into play…of course they are hitting balls, that’s what they do. I don’t know…I’m just saying, that stat itself is never going to be more than four digits…the name should be four digits or fewer too.

]]> By: Eno Sarris http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/#comment-4095 Eno Sarris Wed, 29 Jul 2009 13:17:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=4285#comment-4095 I think one of the things I'm saying about BABIP here is that the relevant sample size may be huge. It certainly doesn't seem to stay very constant with these three players. Cutting it down to 2/3 of a season's worth of splits (or 1/3 of a season's worth of plate appearances) would be going the wrong way on BABIP I think. I think one of the things I’m saying about BABIP here is that the relevant sample size may be huge. It certainly doesn’t seem to stay very constant with these three players. Cutting it down to 2/3 of a season’s worth of splits (or 1/3 of a season’s worth of plate appearances) would be going the wrong way on BABIP I think.

]]> By: Mario http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/#comment-4094 Mario Wed, 29 Jul 2009 12:46:38 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=4285#comment-4094 Gives me a better idea of what to expect w/ Jose Lopez. Good read Gives me a better idea of what to expect w/ Jose Lopez. Good read

]]> By: lexomatic http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/incredible-oscillating-babips/#comment-4081 lexomatic Wed, 29 Jul 2009 04:27:15 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=4285#comment-4081 what about home/road splits for wells this year? to small a sample or craziness. what about home/road splits for wells this year? to small a sample or craziness.

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