Is Carlos Beltran’s Declining Power an Issue?
If you do a couple of things really well, people will trip all over themselves to praise you but if you do everything well and nothing spectacular, people will underrate you. Let’s take a quick look at Ryan Howard and Carlos Beltran. Howard gives you HRs and RBIs and people drool over those numbers. There have been 2009 mock drafts with Howard going in the first round despite being the 18th-best fantasy hitter in 2008.
Meanwhile, Beltran contributes in five categories but is no threat to finish in the top three in any of them. He’s a late second round pick in the same mocks, even though he was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. And it’s easy to see why. In 2004, he nearly went 40-40, missing by two home runs. Last year Beltran went 27-25 and simply did not have the sexy numbers.
The decline in steals is not a great shock, as Beltran is in his early 30s now. But what happened to the power? How does a guy who hit 41 home runs in 2006 manage just 27 in 2008, despite nearly 100 more at-bats (606-510)? Let’s look at this graphically.
As the preceding graph shows, Beltran has undergone a steep decline in his FB% (the blue line) in the past few years. Also, his HR/FB rate has dropped noticeably, too. However, his FB% is not out of line with what he’s done previously. A 13 percent drop in two years seems extreme, but Beltran’s 2008 rate fits in perfectly with his marks from 2002 and 2003.
Beltran’s BABIP, SLG and ISO were all within just a few points of his lifetime marks in 2008. And just to reiterate a point made earlier, Beltran was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year. It is counter-productive to obsess about his declining power when Beltran is simply one of the safest and most reliable fantasy hitters available.
In 2006, Beltran was the 13th-best fantasy hitter. Then in 2007 he ranked 18th. If you are drafting in the middle of the second round and Beltran is available, it would be a mistake to bypass him. He is very durable, his established rate of production puts him at the top of the second round and there is always the slight chance he returns to 40-homer levels and exceeds expectations.
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I would feel more comfortable if he were completely healthy with no lingering leg issues. I think it is affecting his VS R #s, which have been average at best the past 2 seasons. In 2008, I believe he was .266/.350/.450 vs R, but was pretty solid vs L. This could be a by-product of his leg issues the past 2 years, he doesn’t have the solid base hitting from the left side.
I think it depends on how you build your team. For example if you grab Howard and protect him with a Polanco average type he gives you more power production then anyone. This is especially key in a roto style league. Honeslty, is their any hitter who has better change at 45 and 140? and in Roto this is an edge worth the first round.
If you take Howard in the first round you are chasing average and steals the rest of the draft. I don’t think it’s enough to add a Polanco-type hitter because one guy isn’t going to make up average by himself and he’s not helping much in steals. And the more AVG-SB guys you have to add to compensate just reduces your HR-RBI advantage.
Ichiro is a nice handcuff for Howard. Their 2008 production gives you .282-54-188-208-44 which is very nice but I beat that production with Beltran as my 2nd round pick and Pujols, Berkman or Tex as my first round pick, just using the players that would give us the same 1B-OF combo. Also, Beltran-Miguel Cabrera gives a .288-64-249-201-26 line.
Pedroia might work better, given the position scarcity, but then you only have half the steals that Ichiro gives you.
Obviously, you can win with Howard as your first choice but I just think you’re adding an unnecessary degree of difficulty by having to chase two categories after your first-round pick. And I’m surprised that people are okay with Howard on round 1 and not Beltran on round 2.
Again given the landscape of MLB hitters over the last two seasons Howard has made himself “special” what I mean by this is that he is the surest bet to do something fewer and fewer do. Hit 40+ HR and Drive in 140+. Again even he is not a gurantee and I agree he is very fustrating for a head to head lg. However in terms of a roto league. He is perfect picks 8-15.
P.S. I actually took him in one of my NFBC teams and me and my partner finished fourth. We lost quentin for the last month and VMART for the whole season. Yet Howard was huge in keeping us that close as we even finished with an 11 in Avg out of 15.
Brian, Howard may have been the 18th best player in fantasy last year, but a player’s value completely depends on how your team is set up. I took Howard with the second overall pick in my 20 team league’s draft last year and his incredible production was key in my second place finish. I finished with 12 points in average, decent but not great. The winning team finished with 5 points in average. If you use Howard right, he can be one of the best players to have on a team with the production he brings. Maybe taking him with the second pick was extreme, but I still think he is a first round value in a 12 team league.