Is Clayton Kershaw an Ace?
Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is a special talent. The Texas prep product, taken with the seventh pick in the 2006 draft, used his searing fastball and knee-buckling breaking stuff to whiff over 11 batters per nine innings in the minors. He reached L.A. at age 20, and has since K’d more batters per nine frames (9.4) than any starter not named Rich Harden, Tim Lincecum or Erik Bedard.
It seems like Kershaw’s already an ace — after posting a 4.26 ERA during his rookie season in 2008, he pared that mark down to 2.79 in 2009 and currently holds a 3.06 ERA in 2010. But has the prized young starter made the sort of marked progress suggested by his ERAs? I’m not so sure.
Kershaw’s contact and swinging strike rates have, without question, improved. Opponents made contact against him 79% in 2008, 77.1% in 2009 and have a 71.6% rate this season (80-81% MLB average). Kershaw’s swinging strike rate has shot up from 8.7% in ’08, 10% in ’09 and 12.1% in 2010 (8-9% MLB average). Consequently, his punch out rate has soared — 8.36 K/9 in ’08, 9.74 K/9 in ’09 and 10.19 this year.
But those extra swings and misses have come at a price. Kershaw’s walk rate has gone from 4.35 per nine in ’08, 4.79 BB/9 in ’09 and 5.35 BB/9 in 2010. Taking a look at his splits, it becomes apparent that Kershaw owns lefties, but his performance against right-handers lags behind:
His xFIP against lefties is 3.05 this season, and 2.07 for his career. Kershaw’s xFIP against right-handers is 4.74 this year and 4.60 for his career. Despite walking well over five righty batters per nine frames during his time in the majors, Kershaw hasn’t been hurt badly by opposite-handed hitters. Why? a minuscule home run per fly ball rate against righties — 1.8% this season, and 5.2% during his career.
Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site shows that Kershaw’s arsenal blows away same-handed batters, but he’s mortal against righties:
He still gets a healthy numbers of whiffs with the fastball against righties, but obviously nowhere near the stratospheric rate against lefties. Kershaw’s strike percentage dips a bit as well, but not tremendously so. The big change is that he swaps some sliders for curveballs against righties. That low-70′s deuce, once dubbed “Public Enemy Number One,” is rarely thrown for a strike and isn’t getting many swings and misses. Kershaw’s changeup has never been a big component of his repertoire, but he’s throwing it to righties even less this season — 2.1%, compared to 5.1% last season.
As a rookie, Kershaw’s xFIP (3.96) outpaced his ERA (4.26). Since then, it’s been the opposite. He had a 3.90 xFIP in 2009 (2.79 ERA) and has a 4.26 xFIP in 2010 (3.06 ERA). He does seem to pitch well from the stretch (career 76.8 LOB%, compared to the 70-72% MLB average), and better pitchers (particularly high-K pitchers) will tend to post higher strand rates.
However, as mentioned earlier in the look at Kershaw’s splits, the main reason for the ERA/xFIP dichotomy is an extremely low HR/FB rate — Clayton had an 11.6 HR/FB% in ’08 (right around the MLB average), but that mark fell to 4.1% last year and is 3.9% in 2010. Color me skeptical that he’ll continue to give up homers on fly balls at a clip that’s less than 40% of the big league average. It’s likely that opposing batters will find the bleachers with greater frequency in the months to come.
None of this is to disparage Clayton Kershaw — he’s still younger than some of the guys who will get drafted tomorrow evening, yet he has already established himself as a quality major league starting pitcher. Given Kershaw’s skills, it’s entirely possible that he makes improvements in his game and tames his wildness against right-handers. But, at the present moment, he’s still an unrefined talent with some blemishes to his approach. He’s very good — I just don’t think he’s great yet. Short of gains being made with his control, Kershaw’s ERA may be closer to four than three from here on out.
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The left-handed answer to Rich Harden?
Brandon Morrow.
Younger Jonathan Sanchez (stat-wise)
I say Scherzer – Kershaw has slightly worse control, but better HR suppression. Same 40% ground ball rate and past issues with pitch counts/efficiency. Both are going to be drafted very early in 2011.
Ever consider that his HR/FB% is so low because HR/FB% includes IFFB as FB and Kershaw induces a crapload of IFFB?
Still unsustainable.
Tell that to Nolan Ryan.
This is neither here nor there, but you’ve been writing pretty prodigiously lately David. Thanks and keep up the good work.
Indeed. I was thinking the same. Good stuff!
I like the Sanchez comparison. Kershaw’s got prodigious talent, but he has to get that hook over consistantly to take the next step… into the 6th inning. Ba-dum-bum. He’s very young and lefties seem to have a habit of developing slower than righties (has anyone ever done a study on that?) so I think the best is still ahead for Kershaw.
Um, except that his stats destroy those of Sanchez.
The ultimate incarnation of Justin Masterson?
The only red flag is actually the amount of walks he gives up, but right handed hitters are batting .213 against him while slugging under .300 against him. The Dodgers don’t protect his leads and struggle to score most games he starts. Break down the games he’s pitched this season, and he could easily be 8-2. With Kershaw’s ability to strike out guys and keep the ball in the park, walks won’t kill him like most pitchers. A guy who only gave up 7 homeruns last season, and 3 this year shouldn’t really really have you worried.
You can talk about how he might be getting lucky against right handed hitters, but last time I checked, right handed hitters have only managed one homerun. Maybe he chooses certain guys to walk knowing that he can strike out the next guy. It’s just a matter of adding one pitch besides a fastball to get ahead in the count(especially for righties)to cut down on his pitches and walks. At 22, the pitching staff might not let him develop another pitch just to protect his arm.
Kershaw gets 3.58 runs a game from the Dodgers while Sabathia gets almost 7 runs a game… they have the same record. Is he really an ace?
His pitching coach should fine him $10 for every curve he throws to righties, unti he gets his walk rate down. Looks like he’s nibbling big-time against righties. I’m sure that he’s been told to only worry about what he does on the field and forget about the lack of support.
Definitely nibbling… but his record is only 19-16 after 66 career starts, and an ERA of 3.31 while hitters hit .221 against him. A 22 year old guy probably realizes that no matter what he’s been told.
Agree about him throwing curves to righties, cause it’s so ineffective and an automatic ball. He has to cut down on walks eventually, but his stuff gets him out of trouble for now. It’d help if he talked to a guy like Maddux or Halladay. Like Scott said, developing a change up would help.
He really needs to develop his change up. He started using it in the beginning of the year and then sort of stopped. Also, whoever is calling his pitches lacks creativity since 70% of his pitches to right handers are fastballs inside.
Tried and found lacking. He has had much more success with the slider, which he has perhaps used a little too much this year. It is very effective against RHB.
So what about Kershaw not being an ace? Just a month later and yes, he has ace numbers.
That’s what I love about these reports. People look for bad things to say about Kershaw and yet other guys who are older, theyll make excuses for. Kershaw’s bb/9 is now the lowest it’s ever been.
I really hope these Kershaw haters keep writing these kinda articles. It makes the writers look stupid and shows they are just hunting for bad things to see in him. You notice this author hasn’t updated his article since. He knows he looks stupid and looks like a clueless hater.
I’ll also say Kershaw deserves to be in the All-Star game more than Strasburg does. And if anyone disagrees show me proof why Strasburg deserves it more. All you can truly point to with Strasburg is ERA and Strikeouts. And his stats are misleading. Remove his first week in the majors and what he has done isn’t All-Star like, it’s a normal line. Sorry one week and being a top prospect shouldn’t be a guarantee into the All-Star game. Especially if you include that most of the teams he has faced are bottom dwellers and he has yet to face any team twice.
If you take out the fluke game against Milwaukee (1.1 IP, 7 ER), Kershaw has a 2.45 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. If and when he stops walking guys, he’ll be a bonafide ace.
No no no, you need to remember that the Dodgers don’t have an “ace” and they are screwed unless they get Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt. Don’t you watch the “experts” on ESPN and all the ‘brilliant’ sports writers?
I would love to get Lee or Oswalt, but it would be SOOO much more satisfying to win without them.
I just hope they trade for someone worthwhile at the deadline and don’t give up any prospects that are going to come back to haunt us in the next few years. Right now they’re saying the Dodgers are talking to the Indians about Carmona or Westbrook. Shoot me now.
You see, about that… heh.. heh.. we still don’t think the Dodgers have an ace because we are so knuckle headed and couldn’t tell a goat from a donkey.
However, apologies to you.
Sincerely,
The World Wide Leader In Sports
ESPN
Ivdown, define an ace.
Lee had some seasons that were worse than Kershaw’s worst season as a rookie. And Kershaw is better across the board this year than Oswalt outside of WHIP.
I don’t think you’d find a person alive willing to trade Kershaw for Lee or Oswalt including the Dodgers themselves.
Kershaw is now 9-4 with an era of 2.96 and 128 strikeouts in 112 1/3 innings pitched with a whip of 1.20. Tell me how that is not ace like. All you could bring up in the argument is age and experience. And even then you could look at the fact that Kershaw has only gotten better each year overall. Isn’t the sign of an ace the ability to improve and keep the game close so your bullpen can save it? Seems to me like Kershaw is more of an ace than Oswalt now.
Though I was being sarcastic with what I said, I love your response. Kershaw is, in fact, an ace, and it’s time that more people start realizing this.
12 ks and no walks? Holy shit! What a game last night, i wish i had watched.
Pretty sure ivdown was being sarcastic. :)
ACE.
“Short of gains being made with his control, Kershaw’s ERA may be closer to four than three from here on out.”
WHOOPS
Kershaw = ACE
So, what about Kershaw NOT being an ace? Hmmmm…
:D