Is DFA’d Smoltz Done For?
For most pitchers, reaching the latter stages of one’s career entails making concessions to Father Time. That fastball doesn’t hop quite as much as it used to, so it’s probably time to stop challenging hitters up in the zone so often. The slider doesn’t snap like it did in the good old days, so perhaps it’s time to try and add a new pitch to the ol’ bag of tricks.
That’s the deal for most pitchers. John Smoltz took that axiom and turned it right on its head. The 6-3, 220 pound right-hander crushed opposing hitters for years in the Atlanta Braves rotation, and he was still going strong at 32 years old with the Braves back in 1999 (186.1 IP, 3.14 Fielding Independent ERA). He had, however, become increasingly fragile, and his health issues came to a crescendo prior to the 2000 season when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.
Upon returning in 2001, Smoltz transitioned to the bullpen in an attempt to stay off the D.L. This kick-started a new era in his career, as he began a four-year run of dominance out of the ‘pen:
Win Probability Added totals, 2001-2004:
2001: 1.61
2002: 4.67
2003: 3.29
2004: 4.93
It’s not like Smoltz was forced to finesse his way through lineups in the ninth inning, a la Ryan Franklin. He was still dealing, sitting between 95 and 97 MPH with his fastball, snapping off wicked high-80’s sliders and high-80’s splitters that plummeted upon reaching the plate.
That Smoltz was still mauling hitters at age 37 was extraordinary enough. But he then went back in the rotation, topping 200 innings each season from 2005-2007 while posting FIP’s of 3.27, 3.44 and 3.21, respectively. His heater sat around 93, and the slider and splitter were still sharp. 2008 did not go nearly as well, as Smoltz suffered a shoulder injury that shelved him for most of the season.
He made a brief comeback as a reliever, only to blow a save opportunity and opt for season-ending surgery in June. When he was able to take the mound, Smoltz managed to punch out 36 batters in 28 frames, issuing 8 walks and surrendering 25 hits.
Over the off-season, the 42 year-old inked a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Red Sox. He continued to mend the shoulder, taking an extended rehab assignment (27.1 IP, 21/4 K/BB between Greenville, Portland and Pawtucket) before making his Sox debut on June 25th vs. the Washington Nationals.
Upon first glance, Father Time appears to finally snatched away Smoltz’s ability to blow away hitters at the highest level. He made 8 starts for Boston, getting bombarded for an 8.38 ERA and a 2-5 record in 40 innings pitched. That’s the sort of line that would make Adam Eaton and Sidney Ponson giggle. The Red Sox designated Smoltz for assignment recently, ending the reclamation project of the former Cy Young award winner. Surely Smoltz is done, right?
I’m not so sure. Assuming that Smoltz wishes to continue his career elsewhere, he may still have something to offer. Despite the horrific ERA, John managed to strike out 7.43 batters per nine innings, while issuing 2.03 BB/9. However, a .390 BABIP, an inflated HR/FB rate (14.8%) and an uncharacteristically low 56.9% rate of stranding runners have conspired to make Smoltz look like a pinata.
Smoltz’s stuff, while not vintage, looked good enough to combat most lineups. His fastball sat at 91 MPH (down a tick from the previous few years), with an 85 MPH slider and splitter (he also tossed an occasional high-70’s curveball).
Smoltz’s plate discipline stats suggest that hitters still found that mix difficult to handle at times. He managed a 33.1 Outside-Swing% (30.6 O-Swing% since 2002). Opponents made contact with a few more pitches placed within the strike zone (87.9%, right at the MLB average and 3.8% above his overall rate since 2002). It’s not like batters were roping every pitch he threw: his 18.1% line drive rate was actually below his marks from 2005-2007.
The dichotomy between Smoltz’s actual ERA and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (4.37) is massive. Taking only a cursory look at his numbers, Smoltz appears to have a fork sticking out of his the back of his jersey instead of his customary “29.” However, the long-time Brave still appears to have something left in the tank, if teams are willing to look past the grisly superficial stats.
Print This Post
you make fine points.
My only question is why did the Sox DFA him? They seem to possess a good deal of statistical savvy and, yet, they chose this path.
Everything screams bad luck. Nonetheless, they continue to start Clay Buckholtz, despite his awful xFIP, while they jettison Smoltz.
What gives?
Francona smart, Angry sox sheep dumb, angry sox sheep pay Francona.
Make sense?
Also Buchholz will probably become a AAAA pitcher, mark my words.
The things that don’t show up in the box score…
Smoltz struggled hard. He knew he wasn’t effective and was trying different things. He went into the game against the Yankees trying a different arm angle to see if it helped any. It got him through the lineup once with great results. The second time through, the Yankees adjusted and smacked him around hard. It wasn’t luck that lead to all those hits, he just didn’t have good enough stuff. From watching his face, he seemed to realize that too.
He just doesn’t seem to have the physical ability to be an effective MLB pitcher anymore. The bright spots in his stat lines are a testament to his knowledge of how to pitch effectively, not to the ability he has now.
Check out Boston Smoltz’s pitching stats (a) with bases empty vs. (b) with runners on, and I think you’ll find an answer. His ERA, WHIP, and opponent average all exploded when there were baserunners behind him. The Yankees and Rays and numbers 1 & 2 in team wOBA, and the Blue Jays are number 9, so the American League East probably isn’t a good place for him at this junction. The National League Central would probably be a lot more forgiving.
The Sox DFA’d him because they had no reasonable mechanism for predicting when his underlying statistical solidity would manifest itself at the major league level. Maybe it was the next start, maybe not for another five.
In the meantime, they were losing games, which was bad, but losing innings as well, which was worse.
If the Sox had a comfortable margin in either the division or the wildcard, I would not be surprised to see them demonstrate more patience. But they’re in a dogfight to make the playoffs, and without any idea when he would begin pitching effectively, they simply couldn’t afford to take the chance that it would be a while.
The point is that he was pitching effectively and was the victim of really, really bad luck.
I think it takes more than just bad luck to turn a sample of 90 LHHs into the equivalent of facing Barry Bonds 90 times. Use your brain. That doesn’t mean he can’t do something to fix it, just that it wasn’t fixed yet and the Red Sox didn’t feel they could afford to devote any more time to trying to fix it at the expense of giving their team a better chance to win games.
Did you read the article? I’m not making a new argument here, just reiterating the point of this entire post. Read the last paragraph.
A .466 BABIP against lefties with probably something like 20-25% of flyballs from that side leaving the park (6/25? 6/30? couldn’t find the split) might account for some of the problem.
The .466 BABIP from lefties is probably due to his arm angle. After his early struggles he tried lowering his arm angle. That generally tends to make your pitches harder to read for like handed batters, and easier to read for opposite handed batters.
He had a .390 BABIP overall, so righties still had an above average BABIP against him, although not insanely so.
Matt, BABIP for pitchers is almost completely luck. Smoltz is allowing about 18% LD, which is a league average rate, so his BABIP should reflect that A ~.400 is certainly elevated and almost completely the results of luck.
Smoltz really struggled with his location so far this year. He was hanging breaking balls left and right, and he would constantly leave his fastball right over the middle. I honestly think he would be better served out of the bullpen, but the Sox have as much bullpen depth as any team in baseball.
Boston lost six of Smoltz’s eight starts. Is that the kind of superficial number a contending team should overlook? Those K/9 and BB/9 stats look great, but wins are still the metric that determines whether or not your team qualifies for the postseason. If the Cardinals didn’t have a comfortable lead, I don’t think they’d risk starting Smoltz every fifth day with hopes that his results catch up to his BaBIP and HR/FB.
The Cards only need a 5th starter a few more times this season…this signing was made with an eye towards the playoff roster. RH relief has been a sore spot for the Cards(outside of Franklin, who sucks). Look at Smoltz’s numbers against RH. My guess is that if he has even a modicum of success as the 5th starter, he will make the playoff roster as a late-inning glorified ROOGY. The Cardinals need that badly