Comments on: Is Ichiro Declining?

By: Bunnell

Bunnell — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:41:28 +0000

Seems to me that the key argument is that Ichiro’s average will go down as he gets older. A law of nature that he has resisted thus far. Not sure that the analysis states anything more than based on his age, his BABIP is expected go down which is built into the model, even if its not explicit. But there is little evidence that it has since 2008 is the only down year after 2005.

So, it seems that the only argument is that Ichiro is unique, and the model does not capture him very well.

Also, given the large number of batted balls, an average BABIP should give you a solid number to work with. Certainly speed and trajectory would be nice, but as you start to slice and dice the data, your statistical significance will fade.

By: Mike Ketchen

Mike Ketchen — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 15:49:15 +0000

Great piece

Iciro is being drafted two to three rounds ahead of what he will provide for value in 5×5 league.

By: Khalid

Khalid — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 09:59:23 +0000

Yes, he thinks all batted balls are created equally. That’s why he completely ignored all the freely available velocity and trajectory data found all over the internet.

By: Duquette

Duquette — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 09:38:05 +0000

Right on. The holy grail will be when we stop using these silly bins (“line drive”, “fly ball”, etc.) and can calculate struck ball mph and trajectory. Then, we could have a frequency plot of velocity and trajectory outcomes. I wonder how far away that is?

We don’t know the difference between hard hit ground balls and dribblers right now. Normalization shouldn’t be required for ground balls and fly balls (not including IFFB, IFH and HR).

By: Bball

Bball — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 09:05:28 +0000

Infield hits? Infield pop ups? Pop outs or weakly hit balls beyond the infield? Foul outs? Your model treats every line drive the same. Every grounder the same. Every flyball the same. Do you really think they’re all created equal? Batted ball velocity and trajectory?

Sorry, but your model just isn’t good enough. Try not to leave out some important data.

By: Huh?

Huh? — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 08:54:36 +0000

Ichiro’s BABIP (per his player page on fangraphs.com) since 2004:
2004: .401 BABIP
2005: .319 BABIP
2006: .350 BABIP
2007: .390 BABIP
2008: .337 BABIP

By: Conballs

Conballs — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 08:05:20 +0000

Nice comparison Matt. I wasn’t actually saying he’s lost bat or foot speed, but if the argument is that he ages like anyone else, I’m saying he is a good enough ball player to maintain his current level of play even with the decline of physical attributes. Maybe this is something to be looked into? I’m not the most stat savvy person, but does anyone compile bat speed and foot speed? I would think the average mph swing for each type of pitch would tell us that exactly. Same goes for average times from home to 1st, 1st to 2nd (steals) and 1st to 3rd/2nd to home. If bat speed averages are declining, and there is no effect in one’s BA or BABIP, then we can theorize this has something to do with veteran skill. Same goes with steals. I know home to 1st is not a steal attempt, but it can be use to measure pure speed. If his speed is declining, yet his SBs and SB% remain consistent, we can also theorize about veteran skill. In that, he is getting better jumps, bigger leads, etc.

I’d love to know if these data are available. Btw, how did Lofton not sign with someone last year? Was his asking price too high or are GMs just dropping the ball? Is he still looking for a job this year?

By: Matt

Matt — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 05:01:03 +0000

Well, his bat speed and foot speed look nearly the same to me as when he started. I think the shift back to RF (his stated preference apparantly) will help him easily attain last seasons numbers. I’d highly doubt ANY regression on any stat, outside of BB%-K% possibly.

Kenny Lofton is a guy I compare him too, and Kenny was fairly effective later in his career as his wheels didn’t seem to fail him and I think Ichiro is probably the better overall player at the same age.

Lofton at 36, .296/.352/.450, 30 SB
Lofton at 37, .275/.346/.395, 7 SBs (83 games)
Lofton at 38, .335/.392/.420, 22 SBs
Lofton at 39, .301/.360/.403, 32 SBs
Lofton at 40, .296/.367/.414, 23 SBs.

Assuming Ichiro doesn’t return to Japan, I don’t see these lines as being out of Ichiro’s realm going forward.

P.S. Lofton was a stud!

By: Jack Burton

Jack Burton — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 04:59:35 +0000

Ichiro will fall off the cliff in the Year of the Cock. Mark my words.

By: Adam

Adam — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 04:47:39 +0000

Well, the 30 minutes or so that I spent trying to figure out a viable formula for estimating actual avg. based on BABIP may have been in vain, but at least it’s not indicative of gross statistical oversight on my part. : ) Thanks for your reply, Peter.