Is Vlad on the Decline?
Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Guerrero?
In 2008, he hit a mere .303, with 27 homers and only 91 RBI. Vlad’s .303 average was the third-lowest of his career, and his lowest since 2001. His 27 homers matched last year’s total, and was also the third-lowest of his career. His 91 RBI was the lowest of his career in any season in which he had at least 400 at bats.
Guerrero is not old, but he’s no spring chicken anymore (where does that expression come from?), either, as he will be 33 years old next year. Most sluggers tend to begin their decline around ages 32 or so, and Vlad seems to be no exception. Is Vlad in decline?
Well, yes and no. He’s certainly no longer the same force that he was in his prime – particularly back in 2000-2004. However, he’s no slouch either.
Vlad’s relatively low batting average can be attributed squarely to a fall in his BABIP and a rise in his strikeout rate: Vlad’s BABIP was .314, the lowest since 2005 and the third-lowest of his career, while his strikeout rate was over 14%, after having been 12% or under in every other year with the Angels.
So is this decline, or statistical fluctuation? It seems to be a bit of both. Vlad’s power has been conspicuously down for three years now – he posted ISOs of .248 or higher every year in his career until 2006; since 2006, his ISO has been .222, .223, and .218. So while Vlad’s power is indeed down, it’s not more down than it has been over the last three years.
Vlad’s hack-tastic ways seem to have gotten more pronounced in the last two years: his O-Swing percentage is over 45% for the past two years, whereas it was 40% and 32% in 2006 and 2005, respectively. His strikeout percentage was below his career average in 2007, but above it in 2008. I don’t know if there is much to read into this, besides perhaps the idea that Guerrero getting fewer pitches to hit because of an increasingly-weak lineup around him. His contact rate is down in the last two years as well, albeit marginally (from 83% to 80-81%). His line-drive percentage was also lower in 2007 and 2008 than it was from 2003-2006, although again, the difference was only a few percent.
I don’t often like to talk about RBI, as I believe they are almost entirely out of a player’s control, and therefore can be inferred by a player’s context (how good a hitter he is + his spot in the lineup and his teammates), but I will make note of Guerrero’s RBI total. Namely, in 2008 he drove in less than 100 runs for the first time during a full season in his career. Most of this is because his teammates weren’t particularly adept at getting on base; furthermore, his batting average and slugging percentage were both down. But also, Guerrero’s 2007 RBI total was artificially inflated by an incredibly-clutch performance that year: Guerrero’s clutch rating was a ridiculously-high 2.53 – the next highest rating in 07 was 1.86, from Adrian Gonzalez. In other words, Guerrero’s 125 RBI in 2007 was an abnormally-high total, inflated by an unusually-clutch performance.
So what can you expect in 2009? Well, Guerrero is unlikely to improve, but his batting average could rise if his strikeouts come down – which is a distinct possibility, given the fluctuation of his career strikeout rate (his high total in 2008 doesn’t necessarily seem to be a sign of his decline). His power is clearly no longer at the level it was in his prime, and may indeed come down even further, especially if back issues continue to plague him as they have in the past. While “lineup protection” is a myth, Guerrero’s RBI and runs scored totals could change dramatically depending on whether or not the Angels re-sign Teixeira, who would either be on base often for Vlad to drive in, or drive Vlad in often himself.
From 2006-2008, Vlad hit .319 with one homer every 20 at bats. It seems reasonable that this is approximately what to expect from Vlad in 2009, with the caveat that his power may be down a tick. If Vlad manages to get 550 plate appearances (he’ll likely miss some games due to injury), that would lead to 27-28 homers. I’d say that a .310-25-90 line seems reasonable – with the caveat that with every passing year, Vlad is an increasing injury risk.
The days of Vlad hitting 35 homers are gone, and it’s not too likely that he’ll hit .330 anymore. But he still remains an excellent fantasy outfielder.
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“abnormally-high” is an adverb modifying an adjective. I don’t think those are hyphenated in the way that compound adjectives (“messed-up”, “devil-may-care”) are.
Through the first two months of the 2008 season, Vlad was awful. His BA/OBP/SLG line was .246/.308/.424, averaging a HR every 29 ABs and having a K rate of 17.2%
But from June 1st to the end of the regular season, Vlad posted the following:
.337/.399/.577
During this time, his K rate was 12.4% while his HR rate was one every 16.9 ABs.
I have been wanting to write an article about Vlad as well. I think he suffers from Roberto Clemente complex. He is playing as if he has a skill set that he was not born with. In this article , his back injuries are mentioned and while that is a cause of major concern it may be surpassed by concern over his knees and probably his ankles as well. He has gigantic ice-packs wrapped around his knees after games. Is he overweight? Does he have poor form in his swing? No..
He has one of the lowest P/PA averages in baseball and is completely in the basement compared to players of his caliber. He is definitely “hack-tastic”! I think he could decline in the manor widely predicted of Delgado and Sammy Sosa. Predictions based on fear of the unknown, of what these players do during their free time, stereotypes that black latin players are lazy or undisciplined and just fall off and dissapear into thin air, well that tends to be false premonitions on the part of American Journalists. It is well known that Clemente had to deal with this stigma throughout his career as well. My point is that Vlad may dissapear within the next couple of years not because of being lazy but because of the exact opposite. He is a large man that weighs alot and if he is constantly putting the bat on the ball , that toll is going to weigh in here pretty soon , no pun intended. Roberto Clemente was a hitter that Vlad attempts to model himself after and it may lead to his demise. Vlad needs to sit down and find coaches to rewire his approach so that he can play well into his 30′s. He needs to be more patient at the plate and not swing at pitches that he could hit when he was younger.
Vlad needs to sit down with his coaches and rewire his approach? Not all players are gonna be patient (though his .389 career OBP is pretty amazing considering his approach) and Vladdy is what he is – not sure a change at 32 is happening.
Vladdy is a first ballot HOFer NOW and one of the more exciting players of this era. I think he deserves a bit more respect.
A career .323/.389/.575 slash line, 2136 hits, 392 HRs, 1268 RBIs, OPS+ 147, even 173 SBs. 8 time All-Star, 1 MVP, a batting title. A rocket of an arm, though a below average outfielder for the most part.
I understand your point about Clemente, and while I would be the first to admit I would love to see Vladdy take a few more pitches (imagine his potential BA and OBP #s?) at this point in his illustrious career, I don’t see that happening.
My guess he will decline somewhat gracefully for the next 2-3 seasons and be a part time DH for the rest. Apparantly he has one leg that is quite a bit longer than the other (self admitted) and this also helps make him look a bit slow and lumbering and ‘old’.
But nobody will ever forget Vladimir Guerrero.
Who said anything about respect? Since you bring it up, nobody deserves respect until they win a World Series. Ill straight up disrepect him right now. He got thrown out on 3rd base in a moment in the ALDS that had a very high Leverage Index Score and he is part of the reason why the team never wins in the playoffs despite winning the World Series in 2002 with a team that was half as talented as this team in 2008. He has poor fundamental instincts and it he knows it himself , thats why after he got thrown out trying to steal 3rd he went and sat on the bench crying like a little kid. Torii Hunter didnt do much to help the teams cause either except for a clutch double to dig himself out of doghouse. If he doesnt change hes going to end up just like Andruw Jones and find himself out of baseball when his contract expires. The team doesnt even want to sign him to an extension and who would when he looks so broken down. He needs to change and the management is trying to send him a message. You dont get paid for what you did 5 to 10 years ago.
The article has the correct premise but I noticed some contradictions and it is also overly excusatory. Im seeing too much credit for past achievements. To the point, his numbers are indeed in fluctuation but the trend is immediately to the downside and would be more pronounced if not for BETTER protection from what was the most ROBUST lineup he has ever been apart of. Prior to 2008 the only other players with more than 20 HR are Juan Rivera and also Jose Guillen, although way back in 2004. This year he had Torii and Teixeira half the season, plus a breakout from Mike Napoli in only 200+ AB. Meanwhile, they still had Rivera and Garrett. I would credit the lineup for masking the greater demise of Vlad Guerrero. So the writer is wrong in more than one way when he states “increasingly-weak lineup”…. another adverb modifying an adjective. In addition, “His teammates were not adept to getting on base?” So that would conclude that Juan Rivera and Garrett Anderson are better than Torii Hunter and Mark Teixiera. And if the rebuttal is that they hit after him in the lineup, then why did he not score any runs? Because he should be a DH RIGHT NOW rather than that he is “first ballot HOF (RIGHT) NOW” Chipper Jones realized that he needed a few more quality seasons to get in the HOF and I think Vlad needs to realize that even more so. Also, “Lineup protection is a myth?” That is not true. It is ignorance when people say a good hitter is going to hit no matter where he is in the lineup. That is just plain false. I will say though that if there was a player that did not need protection, it would be Vlad because he swings and usually makes contact with everything, so a pitcher can not do anything other than intentionally walk him if he wants to get to the next hitter which would be Teixeira. I would pitch around Vlad to get to Juan Rivera but I would not pitch around him to get to Teixeira, so how is that not lineup protection? If LAA had not brought in Torii and Tex, Vlad would have most likely set a career high in IBB in 2008 which would have lead to alot of stranded runners and GDP based on the evidence that he could not run out IFGB. Basically the Angels would have been much less potent in 2008 without Teixeira, or at least it would have been neck and neck with the A’s.
The author states… “since 2006, his ISO has been .222, .223, and .218. So while Vlad’s power is indeed down, it’s not more down that it has been over the last three years.” How is it not “more down” than over the last three years if it is his lowest ISO?
I also always laugh when people ineffectively give a player the benefit of the doubt by inferring that a low BABIP means the player got unlucky and therefore will rebound. That is funny, a low BABIP means they are not hitting the ball with authority and the proof is in the fact that his IFH% was less than half of what it was the year prior when he had his high “clutch” rating, and was 25% less than his previous career low. While at the same time , his IFGB% and GB/FB ratio stayed roughly the same so he was basically hitting 25-30% more weak ground balls in 2008. The the only thing that there is a combination of “both” of is not a conflict of whether its decline and stat fluctuation, it’s rather the fact that he is seemingly neither hitting the ball with authority and also seemingly not able to run out singles. That means he has to grow up and adjust his approach, that is what baseball is about, making adjustments so, if a change is not happening then Vlad is going to have to sign elsewhere at the age of 34 with what will be poor numbers unless he or someone influential to him reads this article and thread. According to Dave, Vlad will be signing with a team as a part time DH in 2010, although they will probably be signing him to do much more than that.
I dont see a rebound for Vlad unless he becomes more patient. He should try to model himself after Jermaine Dye who had a very excellent rebound season. I noticed that Dye was being very selective this year.
Actually after reading what I wrote, the fact that Vlad has a gigantic strike zone, would mean that he actually needs more protection than the average player because a pitcher would not take a chance on throwing the wrong pitch if he could simply pitch-out and take on Juan Rivera. This correction just further reinforces the LAW or RULE of Lineup Protection. I see alot of myths and theories on this site but Lineup Protection is not one of them.
Blake: I think your point is excellent and quite interesting. I don’t know whether to read into that as being a sample-size fluke (we can’t just throw out the first two months of the season), or a sign that Vlad really wasn’t healthy in April and May. I guess we’ll see next season.
Sean: A low BABIP doesn’t necessarily mean a player was unlucky. We have to compare the BABIP to a player’s career (some players have consistently higher or lower BABIPs), as well as his line-drive percentage. LD% defines whether or not a player was truly “hitting the ball with authority.”
I don’t expect Vlad to change his ways, and honestly, why should he? He’s been tremendously successful with this approach, and it’s not worth messing with it to try to coax a few more walks.
However, I do disagree with the idea that Vlad is more susceptible to “protection” than other players. He’s proven that he can hit anything, including pitches out of the strike zone.
You can not only throw out Vlads first two months as they are they most important months of the year, I think all September stats should be adjusted to account for expanded rosters full of minor leaguers as well as major leaguers who have lost interest except for the laggards who are trying to improve their numbers.
One major problem is that Vlad is a prototypical #3 hitter who gets paid like a cleanup hitter, which prevents them from being able to afford a cleanup hitter. Its compounded by the fact that Torii is a very similar case, although not prototypical by any means. Neither player is remotely a cleanup hitter which is someone who either draws a walk , strikes out , hits a 2B or HR. They both excel at none of these things. They both have poor plate discipline in regards to a low P/PA something that heart of the order hitters are not supposed to have. The both are “hack-tastic” and it back-fired simultaneously as they both came back down from the 45 2B plateau at the same time from 07 to 08. They will probably have to spend all season rotating in and out of the 3-4 spot. Maybe the Angels should sign Giambi.
If only there was a switch-hitting power hitter who could play an above-average first base on the market. It’d be nice if he was in his prime, too. I wonder if the Angels can find anyone like that to sign…